aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/5/22 11:54 a.m.

So, the Russians finally flattened out the bulge at Lysychansk that the Ukrainians where taking some good loses trying not to give up.  Not necessarily that bad of thing for the Ukrainians since they were getting eaten up pretty bad by Russian artillery, but certainly something the Russians can claim as a win.

As noted, you can expect to see the Ukrainians continue to push in the west, but also as noted, the Russians are setting up defense in depth there (cannot easily be encircled).  I still do wonder if the Ukrainians (and West) are coming up with something a bit more creative.  Perhaps they will wait for more winter weather to take advantage of the generally lower technical capabilities of the Russians?  The US has apparently committed to more money / product flowing over there.  Maybe there is a bit of a longer game (a few months at least) plan in effect?

Regarding Russian supplies.  I don't know the specifics of Russian armaments logistics but they have plenty of oil money flowing in (what makes it past the deep pocket oligarchs) and they do have rather good natural resources and industrial capability, so I am not terribly confident that is a big concern (?)

What may be more of an effect is that the Ukrainians have been pretty effective at destroying Russian ammo dumps and supply trains, but that of course is a bit short term if the industry is still there.

An interesting note from the list below is the potential conscription Ukrainians.  You might think this could setup some great potential for internal army problems (sabotage etc.).  Realistically, the Russian already have so little confidence in even there main army (as far as giving them any real autonomy), it would likely have little effect.

 

  • Russian leadership may be setting conditions for an operational pause following the seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast boundary.
  • Russian forces are consolidating territorial and administrative control over Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut to prepare for advances on Bakhmut and Siversk.
  • Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults north of Kharkiv City.
  • Ukrainian partisan activity is targeting Russian railway lines around Melitopol and Tokmak.
  • Russian leadership may be setting conditions for the conscription of Ukrainian citizens living in occupied territories.

 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
7/5/22 12:48 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Russian military-industrial capacity is limited in terms of what it can produce, notably PGMs, but of the commodities it can supply, it can supply them in large quantities, most notably small arms and artillery ammunition. At this point Russian tactics (such as they are) seem to be being dictated increasingly by logistics and manpower. Short of PGMs, short of men (especially trained men - enlisted, NCOs, and officers), and with their armor proven to be vulnerable, they are forced to fall back on what they've got: artillery. Of necessity, any further Russian advances are going to follow the same pattern: flatten everything and plant a flag on the rubble.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
7/5/22 5:17 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

You don't want to know what an ASROC or SUBROC really is and what it does.  You also don't want to try and find a diesel submarine running on battery alone.  If your plan is to find and neutralize deployed submarines, you need a better plan.  You'll do better destroying their ports and supply ships.  

Reality sure is cooling all that pro Ukraine sentiment.  

War is hell and the citizens of the Ukraine will 100% bear the brunt of the suffering.  Global leadership is in shambles and Putin took advantage of it. I wonder how long it will be before China does the same.  
 

 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
7/6/22 7:23 a.m.
frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
7/6/22 11:00 a.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to aircooled :

You don't want to know what an ASROC or SUBROC really is and what it does.  You also don't want to try and find a diesel submarine running on battery alone.  If your plan is to find and neutralize deployed submarines, you need a better plan.  You'll do better destroying their ports and supply ships.  

Reality sure is cooling all that pro Ukraine sentiment.  

War is hell and the citizens of the Ukraine will 100% bear the brunt of the suffering.  Global leadership is in shambles and Putin took advantage of it. I wonder how long it will be before China does the same.  
 

 

China is a long term country.  There is little to be gained with overseas military adventures. Plus their Navy just isn't up to the task.  
  If they do anything militarily it will be around their borders where they can supply by train rather than boats. 
  As far as World disarray,  it's what happens after a decent period of peace.  
    WW3 won't occur because no country has the military strength to attack post nuclear war.  

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue HalfDork
7/6/22 12:00 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

Reality sure is cooling all that pro Ukraine sentiment.

Help me understand this. As written, it sounds like you're saying that people are losing interest in Ukraine because Russia has not stopped attacking.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/6/22 12:26 p.m.
02Pilot said:

And it seems the Russians are concerned about the Kerch Bridge: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-seems-to-be-preparing-the-vital-kerch-bridge-for-missile-attacks

I am thinking the Russians are in the same mindset that we have: they are planning something, and that something is likely going to be in the west.

An interesting update from the Russians.  The first point below seems to indicates the Russians still have the same objectives as they did at the start.... of course... Russia.  This could very easily be a prelude to them "graciously reducing" their demands so we should all be so impressed they are so reasonable and give them all their now reduced demands.

Another interesting chart I ran across is one showing where Russia is selling it's oil.

  • Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev restated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial objectives for operations in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin retains maximalist objectives including regime change and territorial expansion far beyond the Donbas.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest and east of Slovyansk.
  • Russian forces are attempting to advance west of the Lysychansk area toward Siversk.
  • Russian forces are likely attempting to gain access to village roads southeast of Bakhmut in order to advance on the city from the south.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.
  • Russian authorities are continuing to consolidate administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine, likely to set conditions for the direct annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation.

06HHR (Forum Supporter)
06HHR (Forum Supporter) Dork
7/7/22 3:53 p.m.

Found this nugget during my daily news browsing.  Have they run out of men or artillery shells?

https://www.tampabay.com/news/nation-world/2022/07/07/russia-taking-operational-pause-in-ukraine-analysts-say/

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/7/22 4:47 p.m.

Based on what I have seen, it seems to be more about man power then shells (they don't seem to be shy about using crap loads of shells).  Not only man power, but the quality and organization of those men.  Because of the speed they re-organized and made their second offensive, their units have been pretty hap-hazard organization wise since then.

They may also be concentrating their redeployment to defend on what looks like a looming offensive in the west.  Which of course brings us back to the original point of this thread.  It's really hard to hide any kind of significant invasion or offensive.  If there are significant troop and equipment buildups near Kherson City I am sure the Russians are at least generally aware.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/7/22 6:26 p.m.

Ukrainian flag goes up on Snake Island

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
7/7/22 7:11 p.m.
tuna55 said:

Assume Russia doesn't ask for a cease-fire.

When does Russia simply run out of things to launch, and resort to large rocks? I don't know how large their cold war stockpiles are, but their conventional weapons supply has to be running thin. They basically have no industry to build more right now, and the entire world is supplying Ukraine, albeit at a slower rate than Ukrainians would like.

 

Noddaz
Noddaz UberDork
7/7/22 8:34 p.m.
  • Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.

It will be interesting to see how that turns out for them.

 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
7/7/22 9:45 p.m.
Noddaz said:
  • Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.

It will be interesting to see how that turns out for them.

The Russians have a history of using prisoner battalions, so it's not as if this is new territory for them. From the Western perspective it's doomed to failure, but the Russians see it as win-win; they get additional, albeit unhappy, troops (it's not as if the average Russian squadie is a bundle of joy) who will be sent into the worst possible situations and might actually achieve something, but they will probably die in large numbers doing so, which in turn eliminates potentially troublesome young men from Russian-occupied territory in the future.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
7/9/22 9:02 a.m.

Another useful update and analysis from the Austrian military.

 

Noddaz
Noddaz UberDork
7/9/22 10:47 a.m.
02Pilot said:
Noddaz said:
  • Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.

It will be interesting to see how that turns out for them.

The Russians have a history of using prisoner battalions, so it's not as if this is new territory for them. From the Western perspective it's doomed to failure, but the Russians see it as win-win; they get additional, albeit unhappy, troops (it's not as if the average Russian squadie is a bundle of joy) who will be sent into the worst possible situations and might actually achieve something, but they will probably die in large numbers doing so, which in turn eliminates potentially troublesome young men from Russian-occupied territory in the future.

And hopefully these conscripts that Russia gives weapons to are not going to turn around and frag their superiors.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
7/9/22 11:17 a.m.
Noddaz said:
02Pilot said:
Noddaz said:
  • Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.

It will be interesting to see how that turns out for them.

The Russians have a history of using prisoner battalions, so it's not as if this is new territory for them. From the Western perspective it's doomed to failure, but the Russians see it as win-win; they get additional, albeit unhappy, troops (it's not as if the average Russian squadie is a bundle of joy) who will be sent into the worst possible situations and might actually achieve something, but they will probably die in large numbers doing so, which in turn eliminates potentially troublesome young men from Russian-occupied territory in the future.

And hopefully these conscripts that Russia gives weapons to are not going to turn around and frag their superiors.

Historically, that's generally been resolved by internal security forces screening behind the prisoner units, giving them the choice to fight the enemy and possibly survive, or withdraw into security forces with orders to shoot anyone retreating.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter)
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
7/9/22 1:34 p.m.

In reply to 02Pilot :

We can hope that potential prisoner units have been trained to firm around and shoot the people they're retreating towards. berkeley, that's a E36 M3ty position to be in. Gotta say I'd take my chances popping at least one of the security force.

In reply to 02Pilot :

It's good to see Richard Holdener is keeping busy.

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue HalfDork
7/9/22 8:19 p.m.
Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself said:

It's good to see Richard Holdener is keeping busy.

Can't be Richard Holdener. I watched the whole thing, and my ears didn't bleed once.

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself
Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself PowerDork
7/10/22 6:22 a.m.

In reply to DarkMonohue :

I played it safe and didn't play the video, just in case.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
7/12/22 9:26 a.m.

More evidence that Russia is running out of things to launch:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-parliament-laws-military-1.6517083

stroker
stroker PowerDork
7/13/22 9:42 a.m.

It looks to me like Vlad is counting on famine forcing the West to capitulate in order to avoid hundreds of millions of starving migrants all around the globe.  I have to believe he'd offer a cease-fire now and hope to resume his advance at some point in the future but I could be wrong--he may be totally committed to acquiring the Ukrainian coastline.  

So assuming we want to encourage Russia to stop, how does the West inflict more pain than it's worth to continue fighting?  The only thing I can think of is tariffs on countries continuing to support Russia economically, including China and India.  That could be problematic.

 

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
7/13/22 9:46 a.m.

In reply to stroker :

When this started, the US really should have "encouraged" farmers to start growing more corn that is suitable for food, rather than ethanol production.  Come to think of it, it may still not be too late to do some of that.  Not sure when the planting seasons are for various states.

Noddaz
Noddaz UberDork
7/13/22 10:25 a.m.
02Pilot said:
Noddaz said:
02Pilot said:
 

Historically, that's generally been resolved by internal security forces screening behind the prisoner units, giving them the choice to fight the enemy and possibly survive, or withdraw into security forces with orders to shoot anyone retreating.

So you have security forces protecting the regular forces from the conscripted forces.  indecision

Makes perfect sense.

 

jmabarone
jmabarone Reader
7/13/22 10:32 a.m.
eastsideTim said:

In reply to stroker :

When this started, the US really should have "encouraged" farmers to start growing more corn that is suitable for food, rather than ethanol production.  Come to think of it, it may still not be too late to do some of that.  Not sure when the planting seasons are for various states.

You have to have the supply of seed for the farmers to do that.  I doubt that seed suppliers have that quantity of seed on hand regardless of the planting status of farmland.  

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