jmabarone said:GameboyRMH said:Yep, when you're using bleeding-edge hypersonic missiles against very ordinary targets, you're not holding anything back...
A show of force that was necessary because nothing else is working. Seems more like good money after bad to me.
I figured it was just live-fire testing.
Just a quick update. A general pause of anything major still going on though the Russians continue to shell Ukrainian positions.
Some interesting notes from behind the Russian lines:
The Ukrainian Association of Reintegration of Crimea reported that the Kherson occupation authorities have enacted a new law—likely referring to the July 15 censorship decree criminalizing criticism of Russian authorities, the Russian military, and the invasion of Ukraine—that allows the authorities to deport any Ukrainians found in violation of the law.[24]
Russian-backed occupation authorities are possibly propagandizing the threat of Ukrainian partisans to justify increased societal control measures. Ukrainian Mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov stated on July 17 that Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast are manufacturing “non-existent partisans” as part of an effort to claim that Russian forces are successfully mitigating the threat of Ukrainian partisan activity.[25] Orlov stated that the creation of these “non-existent partisans” provides Russian forces with activity to report to their commanders, a means to justify increasingly oppressive administrative measures, and the ability to blame partisans for the occupation authorities’ and Russian forces’ offenses.[26]
Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast continue to face personnel shortages and the unwillingness of local Ukrainians to collaborate with occupation governments. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast are refusing to work in seized enterprises.[27] The Ukrainian Resistance Center also reported that the Zaporizhia occupation authorities are seizing the Ukrainian passports of Ukrainian citizens to compel them to apply for Russian passports, likely in an effort to expedite the occupation administration’s continued attempts to launch an annexation referendum.[28]
I suspect "deported" means "moved to a camp in Siberia".
Along a different front, it "looks" like the US is being more receptive to the reality that Iran may not just give up it's nuclear ambitions through (Russian mediated) negotiations. I suspect most in the region have a strong belief that the concept is absurd on it's face.
On the good news front, the Russians shot down one of their ten SU-34M strike fighters. Supposedly one of the most advanced aircraft in their arsenal.
eastsideTim said:On the good news front, the Russians shot down one of their ten SU-34M strike fighters. Supposedly one of the most advanced aircraft in their arsenal.
It does indeed look that way. 
Put Put is trying to figure out how to get more bodies on the field, well... certain types of bodies:
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war. Russian Telegram channel Rybar released a report on July 18 about the Novaya Tuva movement- an anti-war organization comprised of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave.[5] Rybar accused the Novaya Tuva movement of disseminating anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic discord within the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines.[6] ISW and others have previously noted the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.[7] These indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilization in part due to a reluctance to mobilize large numbers of ethnic Russians. Rybar’s post as well as previous reporting on a "Free Buryatia” anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions.
In reply to aircooled :
Robert McNamara lives...
Just when you think you've heard it all: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
Boy, that sure is some accurate information!
Zelensky purging some old friends from his inner circle for possibly collaboration with Russia
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Well they did blame the invasion on Nazis, I expect they will accuse the Ukranians of conscripting Orcs and Dwarves next..
Meanwhile..https://www.reuters.com/world/us-send-four-more-himars-ukraine-pentagon-chief-2022-07-20/
Lol, y'all are taking seriously the Russian equivalent of whatever US Politician got banned from twitter for talking about space lasers causing wildfires.
Sounds like the reason they want votes on annexing territory they've gained is to claim attacking it would be attacking Russia, and therefore leave the door open to nuclear retaliation. I suspect it'd be a bluff, but it might be enough to fracture support for Ukraine.
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
"... reached out to authorities for comment."
are they expecting "berkeley yeah we did that E36 M3! a Ukrainian with West Nile is the closest thing you'll find to the Wu Tang Clan here, and you best believe the Wu Tang Clan ain't nothin' ta berkeley with!
eastsideTim said:Sounds like the reason they want votes on annexing territory they've gained is to claim attacking it would be attacking Russia, and therefore leave the door open to nuclear retaliation. I suspect it'd be a bluff, but it might be enough to fracture support for Ukraine.
I don't think there's any evidence to support this contention. If Russia wanted to use attacks against Russian soil as a nuclear pretext, there have been plenty at this point, with zero mention of nuclear first use in response. Rather, I think this is Russia signalling the West diplomatically by asserting that, if it continues supplying long-range artillery to Ukraine, Russia will simply extend its objectives further. In other words, stop giving Ukraine long-range artillery and we (Russia) will limit our objectives to the eastern portion of Ukraine. Paradoxically, and as I've said here before, the best diplomatic path Russia could take to split the West and weaken support for Ukraine is to declare their objectives complete and enact a unilateral cease-fire. Threatening to continue fighting and extending their efforts further west will bolster Western support for Ukraine like nothing else.
It sounds like the Chechens are starting to smell blood in the water and want a piece of Putin the Impaler.
yahoo.com: Putin faces second war front as Chechens threaten new offensive in Russia
The Ukrainians seem to be setting up to take Kherson back. They have struck the primary bridge across the Dnipro river twice now. Taking that bridge out effectively cuts off the Russian forces in Kherson I believe. It of course sets up a very strong defensive position at the Dnipro river (see map below. The areas East of there has seen numerous strikes and partisan activity also.
One wonders if they Ukrainians will make a more ambitious attempt, but as noted, the Russians are well aware of that danger and has apparently set up fairly extensive defense in depth (hard to encircle) in that area. Also probably the reason why the Russians want to get rid of any Ukrainian loyalist in the area.
I also saw a note that the US Navy will be flying P4 Posidons (anti-submarine patrol plane) off the Romanian coast (west coast of the Black Sea) in what apparently is a pre-planned exercise. Probably nothing....
- The current Russian offensive will likely make marginal territorial gains northeast of the E40 highway in Donetsk before culminating along the E40.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is pursuing expanded territorial gains in Ukraine beyond Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast, confirming ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin seeks to capture territory beyond Donbas.
- Russian forces resumed limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and around the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area.
- Russian forces continued localized ground assaults east of Siversk and made marginal gains northeast of Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian forces conducted the second consecutive high-precision strike against the Antonivskyi Bridge-- a major Russian logistics artery east of Kherson City.
- Russian occupation authorities are likely propagandizing recent Ukrainian high-precision strikes and partisan activity to set conditions for mass deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory.
In reply to aircooled :
Hitting that bridge now was a mistake, unless they have good intel on the Russians in and around Kherson having high morale and cohesion. If they launch a major offensive to establish a line along the Dnipro, it would be easier to accomplish against Russians that can run away versus trapped Russians who have nothing to lose by resisting. Of course, that presumes the Ukrainians value the territory more than attriting Russian forces; in this particular case, I think they should, given the strategic importance of the Dnipro line and the possibility of shutting off the North Crimea Canal that it offers.
Yes... maybe... unless that is what they want them to think...
Who knows, the Ukrainians, who now should be far better schooled up in NATO style tactics might be playing a few steps ahead. The Russians of course, and generally historically, have not been shown to be terribly flexible in how they fight. I am hoping the Ukrainians / NATO helpers will figure a way to take advantage of that. Getting rid of their apparently rather obvious intelligence leaks may be part of this.
Was on another site that is discussing this, and they mentioned the bridge, even though it is intact, due to its design, is pretty much done for with regard to taking heavy loads. However, it may still be open to lighter weight traffic, like cars. If they don't hit it again, it gives the Russian soldiers an evacuation route, but makes it harder to bring in supplies and equipment. No idea if this was intentional, or just dumb luck.
Here are pics of the bridge in question for reference sake (my guess is they damaged some of the piers?)
The next bridge is 30 miles up river, and is much smaller (and apparently a dam)
Perhaps they want to push the anticipated retreating Russians toward the bridge/dam upriver, compelling them to move more quickly out of their positions. Very difficult to say without knowing the disposition of forces on the ground and the axes of advance planned. Forcing the Russians to do things they hadn't planned on doing is probably a solid component of any sort of operational plan.
Damage is to the road surface, but took out some tension cables inside the concrete. The bridge may be able to be to be repaired rather than replaced, but sections are going to need to be replaced, can't just patch it. Until then, those sections will not be able to take anywhere near the load they used to be rated at.
eastsideTim said:Damage is to the road surface, but took out some tension cables inside the concrete. The bridge may be able to be to be repaired rather than replaced, but sections are going to need to be replaced, can't just patch it. Until then, those sections will not be able to take anywhere near the load they used to be rated at.
Which implies to me the Ukrainians are okay with foot traffic retreating but, "you can leave your vehicles and we'll make certain they're taken care of..."
In reply to stroker :
Or to rip from The Clash “Guns of Brixton”
“When they kick in your front door, how you going to come?
With your hands in the air, or on the trigger of your gun
My family visited the American military cemetery in Normandy, France last week. My first visit. Also saw a German cemetery in the vicinity.
We had an 84 year old retired British army general as a guide. He is writing a book about how logistics win wars.
I sure hope he lives long enough to publish it because he was extremely passionate about his research including interviewing many of the combatants and leaders of the D-Day invasion. He told many interesting stories.
We obviously talked about the Ukraine war and one thing he said was particularly poignant. He said the Russians fight today like they always have: with mass. Mass in weapons. Mass in men. Treating both like easily replaced sledge hammers.
I strongly recommend visiting Normandy. It's chilling and powerful
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