History in the Making: Russian Invasion

I wouldn't be surprised if the application is setting up bargaining chips for peace discussions.  I think everyone knows that Ukraine membership is not going to happen anytime soon given the conflict itself. By putting it out there, even if NATO doesn't respond to it at all, then Ukraine can trade it away to get something back, like the coastal oblasts/Crimea and give Russia LNR and DNR.  Russia gets a buffer region, Ukraine gets back Crimea.

At least that's my idea looking from the cheap seats...

And Lyman has ben retaken.

Lyman

The Ukrainian application is mute from what I understand.  I believe one of the conditions for applying is that you cannot be currently involved in a conflict.

aircooled said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Interesting reading on the non-sabotage possibilities for pipeline failure:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

That does seem like a reasonable explanation (assuming it's accurate):

The question I would have, can you compression ignite pure natural gas with some water mixed in (assuming that is where the oxygen comes from).  One thing that is known is there were two rather large explosions, but I am pretty sure natural gas needs oxygen (or something that has some spare electrons so spare) to explode (!?)

No, you can't ignite methane with water under pressure.  It is possible to get methane and water to react to give hydrogen gas and CO/CO2 if you do it at high temperature.  However, that reaction is endothermic  (it absorbs heat, it doesn't give off heat) so no 'explosion' happens.  I get the feeling that Lawdog takes little bits of information and facts and puts them together in inappropriate or questionable ways.  Could a hydrate plug moving at high speed rupture a pipeline if it came upon a sharp 90 degree bend?  Perhaps it could.  Are there sharp 90 degree bends in the pipeline in question?  I don't know (but I doubt it) and I'm pretty sure Lawdog doesn't know either.  

In reply to 02Pilot :

What is interesting (and on mobile, don't have link) is that support for Ukraine is actually increasing in Germany, not decreasing as one might expect if all one was concerned about was energy prices.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I had thought Germany shut down all of their nuclear reactors, but a quick google search shows that two are coming back on line (was news about 3 weeks ago) and it appears they have plans to bring more back online (which is pretty controversial, of course).

Still have to deal with home heating- but it's not as if they don't have alternate ways to make electricity.

Another question is- can the EU make enough electricity to feed the Ukraine power grid a little?  Every little bit helps.

Yeah, that was the sort of "cheat" (or maybe "sell you sole to the devil") Germany was doing.  They were talking a lot about going green, but of course still needed a lot of base load power (not super sunny in Germany all the time) and their alternative to the nukes was some very dirty coal (lignite, brown coal) so they decided natural gas was way cleaner then coal, but of course had little domestic reserves....

They are now being forced to re-fire some of those coal plants along with the nukes noted above.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rwe-readying-three-brown-coal-plants-restart-early-october-2022-09-26/

They still of course, have a potentially serious home heating problem:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1189752/household-heating-sources-germany/

They will also attempt to extract what little natural gas they have:

https://www.themayor.eu/en/a/view/germany-will-start-exploiting-its-natural-gas-deposits-10356

In reply to aircooled :

I kind of wonder if they were not trying to extract their own reserves as a hedge against if Russia tried to do what they are doing now.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to aircooled :

I kind of wonder if they were not trying to extract their own reserves as a hedge against if Russia tried to do what they are doing now.

Why bother if you can buy it cheaper somewhere else.

I think the whole world operates like that to some extent.  With the recent ups and downs with oil prices there has been zero talks (that I am aware of in my little bubble) of synthetic oils and fuels.  Back to Russia/Ukraine.

aircooled said:

That would certainly create the leak, but they registered seismic activity.  Not sure the event described would create that kind of "explosion".  (?)

Correct, and there were Russian ships in that area a few days beforehand. He skips out on all sorts of evidence to make a point.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

What is interesting (and on mobile, don't have link) is that support for Ukraine is actually increasing in Germany, not decreasing as one might expect if all one was concerned about was energy prices.

I would imagine a lot of folks in Germany are PO'd at Russia for being used a political pawn in Putin's game: "WTF, dude? We tried to help integrate Russia into the global economy and this is the thanks we get? Berk you."

I have to imagine the undersea pipelines are fairly "robust" by definition.  Wouldn't the act of them rupturing be registered seismically as an "explosion"...?

stroker said:

I have to imagine the undersea pipelines are fairly "robust" by definition.  Wouldn't the act of them rupturing be registered seismically as an "explosion"...?

I don't think we have any real way of knowing that, but I doubt it. I know a Top Fuel Dragster launching at the starting line measure something like a 3 on the Richter scale. The 2.3 or so the Nord pipeline showed seems high for just popping, the pressure is pretty high though. 

Kubotai said:

aircooled said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Interesting reading on the non-sabotage possibilities for pipeline failure:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

That does seem like a reasonable explanation (assuming it's accurate):

The question I would have, can you compression ignite pure natural gas with some water mixed in (assuming that is where the oxygen comes from).  One thing that is known is there were two rather large explosions, but I am pretty sure natural gas needs oxygen (or something that has some spare electrons so spare) to explode (!?)

No, you can't ignite methane with water under pressure.  It is possible to get methane and water to react to give hydrogen gas and CO/CO2 if you do it at high temperature.  However, that reaction is endothermic  (it absorbs heat, it doesn't give off heat) so no 'explosion' happens.  I get the feeling that Lawdog takes little bits of information and facts and puts them together in inappropriate or questionable ways.  Could a hydrate plug moving at high speed rupture a pipeline if it came upon a sharp 90 degree bend?  Perhaps it could.  Are there sharp 90 degree bends in the pipeline in question?  I don't know (but I doubt it) and I'm pretty sure Lawdog doesn't know either.  

Lawdog does expand on what I was reading on another site that pipelines do not like to be shut down, and that putin doing so is going to cause irreparable damage to the russian petroleum-delivery infrastructure.

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but since the gas inside the pipeline is not being replenished, will the pipeline not fill with salt water once the pressure equalizes with the water pressure? That can not be a good thing or an easy thing to recover from?

Gas companies go to great lengths the remove water from natural gas, but it’s all predicated on the gas moving along. The sending side runs the gas through a media that removes water, and probably injects glycol or methanol into the stream just in case … but everything is predicated on the gas getting to the destination and out of the pipe.

Near as I can tell — and do correct me if I’m wrong — Russia charged Nord 2 with 300 million cubic metres of natural gas in July of 2021 … and it never moved. It just sat there. Under 300 to 360 feet of salt water.

To quote an email from a petroleum engineer: “Holy Jesus, that [deleted] pipline is one hairy snowball from end-to-end!”

Nord 1 got shut down after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the gas hasn’t moved since. Just … hanging around. At the bottom of a sea.

Yeah, it’s Russia. Those pipes are sodding well FULL of hydrates.

So back on my first thought, who can paint a picture of how russia and russian citizens are going to be better off 20 years from now, regardless of how this ends?  Even if Ukrain surrendered in-toto and "joined" russia, russia would choke on the results.

stroker said:

I have to imagine the undersea pipelines are fairly "robust" by definition.  Wouldn't the act of them rupturing be registered seismically as an "explosion"...?

I think it was discussed previously, but part of the strength for the pipeline is the added pressure of the fluid being transported.  

The specification that I heard is that the primary wall of the pipeline is about 1.5 inches thick, and it's encased in a steel mesh imbedded in concrete. The pressure inside is over a thousand PSI. This is all hard-core stuff. As far as the salt water contamination goes,  I heard one source saying that it might cause the pipeline to be decommissioned, but then some GRMer said that he'd just hit it with POR-15

Looks like the Ukrainians are still very much on the move.  They are being shown to control the east side of the Oskil river (North East area) which is the area directly north of Lyman (that they just captured).  This leaves essentially open ground (no big rivers) to the Russian boarder (see below, this map is more conservative and still shows them only up to the river).  You can also see the two significant cities and significant supply routes.  You would guess the Russians might create a defensive line to the west of those and the two cities. I "think" these cites are still Ukrainian leaning (?), so they might be a bit harder for Russia to hold (partisan activity and such). 

The Russian retreat out of Lyman is apparently being shown widely on Telegram (by Russians) and is creating a bit of bad press for the Russians.  More potential moral issues, and certainly not something the new "recruits" will take well.  Its also looking like the Ukrainians have been "gifted" a good amount of military equipment again.

They also look to have made a significant push in the west on the north of Kherson (potentially pushing down to that critical water canal inlet).

Also of interest.  Related to the recent Russian annexation.  I am not entirely clear what exactly they are annexing, since they don't even control all of those territories.... so... technically... Ukrainian troops, based on the annexation, has magically transported into Russia, and are now actively occupying Russian territory...   nuke time?

In reply to NOHOME :

Your last point is exactly what I have been thinking about. Russia looks like it's going to slowly continue sinking, especially if Putin remains in charge. But what happens to a weakened Russia and a disgruntled populace?  From what I've read, Putin keeps priming his people to accept that the real problem is United States hegemony, and he's fighting The Good Fight against that. Hopefully the younger generations connectivity to information sources outside the Russian bubble will balance Putin's arguments, but still, it's hard to be happy when you're cold, hungry, and losing a war against a much smaller country. 

So the methane leaking out of the pipeline might've taken the record as the largest in history:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nord-stream-rupture-may-mark-biggest-single-methane-release-ever-recorded-un-2022-09-30/

Maybe somebody should've fired a flare into where the gas was bubbling up to convert it to CO2?

In reply to GameboyRMH :

Wasn't there an episode of Scorpion (obscure CBS dramedy about McGuyver-type nerds who are socially inept) that premised a Methane release in Siberia that would lead to mass extinction?   

Yep - Life imitates art? EDIT: Actually two episodes: 

https://scorpion.fandom.com/wiki/Extinction

https://scorpion.fandom.com/wiki/More_Extinction

I watch way to much TV...  But, proof that we are in the solidly in the social media era:  Czech crowdfunding "Tomas the Tank" for Ukraine

Three towns liberated north of Kherson:

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

I'm reasonably sure the Russian population has an idea of how America and the west are doing.  Do they ever wonder with all the resources and intellect Russia has why they can't do better?   
  Just presenting the facts to Russian people shouldn't be that hard.  

GameboyRMH said:

So the methane leaking out of the pipeline might've taken the record as the largest in history:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nord-stream-rupture-may-mark-biggest-single-methane-release-ever-recorded-un-2022-09-30/

Maybe somebody should've fired a flare into where the gas was bubbling up to convert it to CO2?

Sweden is sending vessels to investigate the pipline leak

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-says-pressure-nord-stream-pipelines-has-stabilised-2022-10-03/

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

I watch way to much TV...  But, proof that we are in the solidly in the social media era:  Czech crowdfunding "Tomas the Tank" for Ukraine

That is incredible.  What a fantastic time we live in.  It is so sad we spend so much time killing each other.