History in the Making: Russian Invasion

bobzilla said:

In reply to alfadriver :

Not downplaying anything but you keep doing you. Whats to stop Russia from moving it's NG and oil to china to sell? Sure the pipelines aren't in place yet but there's likely demand that they can fill and they have the resources to build the infrastructure to do it. 

It's a temporary set back for Russia at this point, but for how long? If there's an unregulated market with demand and a willingness to ignore the rest of the world's thoughts of its supplier someone will fill it. Which is why I said until we get China under control there's only so much we can do. I'm sure you'll find something else wrong with this so go ahead.

They're selling whatever they can, but China's calling the price and needs diesel not CNG. Frankly China might back off if rumors are true that the TPP or even SEADO may be reattempted against them.

As for temporary? Hell no, hellllllll naw even lol, it takes serious time and work to recover from a brain drain and russia's intelligentsia have basically fled the nation, are trying to, or are in hiding from mobilization. On top of that, with their "Bankruptcy" the nation will find getting access to lines of credit nearly impossible; for that reason, any pipeline to China will have to be funded by China which they're gonna have issues with since they've 1. nearly gone to war with Russian in the past and 2. are having economic problems of their own, and now they're finding all their Russian-based stuff isn't up to par.

Russian armed forces aren't even being paid: https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1577633032042938368?s=46&t=Z0ZQ5xI2N0KC3cCyVymHGA

North Dakota has the only synfuels plant in the US and has been producing propane for 25 (Edit: 38) years out of crappy Lignite coal. It only takes lots of water and heat. Plus, the excess CO2 is being used to increase production in oil wells by injecting it into CO2 injection wells to push the oil towards the oil well heads.

GREAT PLAINS SYNFUELS PLANT.

Edit: AND... North Dakota has always had one of the most stringent Clean Air, Clean Water laws in the US. 

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

And.. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

More sabre-rattling from Putin? (if you replaced his sabre with a binky)

It's time to start calling out Vlad the Impaler's Bluff. This crap has been going on long enough. I say let's threaten him. Spell it out.

VolvoHeretic said:

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

And.. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

More sabre-rattling from Putin? (if you replaced his sabre with a binky)

It's time to start calling out Vlad the Impaler's Bluff. This crap has been going on long enough. I say let's threaten him. Spell it out.

At this point, they are getting more weapons from Russia than the West 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-complains-western-arms-ukraine-putins-troops-retreating-leaving-weapons-2022-10

If he didn't threaten to nuke Ukraine it would actually be embarrassing. Kind of is anyway.

llysgennad said:

It's too bad they are joking. What's good for the goose, and all...

Petition to annex Kaliningrad

"We, therefore, demand the government of the Czech Republic to send Czech soldiers to Kaliningrad, announce a referendum that will end with a result of 98 percent in favor of joining the Czech Republic, and subsequently annex Kaliningrad and rename it Královec."

I agree 100%. Just what is Vlad the Impaler going to do about it? Same with Transnistria in Moldavia. Its time to Call and Lay Down.

VolvoHeretic said:

It's the end of Russia. You can't let him get away with it. If Putin nukes Kiev, we launch a stealth cruise missile into Moscow from our North Dakota MAFB B-52 hanging out over eastern Europe. I would let him know if I were Biden. We had to threaten Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Wikipedia: List of nuclear weapons tests

Popular Mechanics: The Air Force’s New Stealth Cruise Missile Is a Go

Military.com: AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missile

As I stated some 14 pages ago, I have 2 of my B-52 Bombers in Poland, probably with 28-some stealth cruise missiles each, just waiting to see what they can do. 

Have a nice day. 

GIRTHQUAKE said:

bobzilla said:

In reply to alfadriver :

Not downplaying anything but you keep doing you. Whats to stop Russia from moving it's NG and oil to china to sell? Sure the pipelines aren't in place yet but there's likely demand that they can fill and they have the resources to build the infrastructure to do it. 

It's a temporary set back for Russia at this point, but for how long? If there's an unregulated market with demand and a willingness to ignore the rest of the world's thoughts of its supplier someone will fill it. Which is why I said until we get China under control there's only so much we can do. I'm sure you'll find something else wrong with this so go ahead.

They're selling whatever they can, but China's calling the price and needs diesel not CNG. Frankly China might back off if rumors are true that the TPP or even SEADO may be reattempted against them.

As for temporary? Hell no, hellllllll naw even lol, it takes serious time and work to recover from a brain drain and russia's intelligentsia have basically fled the nation, are trying to, or are in hiding from mobilization. On top of that, with their "Bankruptcy" the nation will find getting access to lines of credit nearly impossible; for that reason, any pipeline to China will have to be funded by China which they're gonna have issues with since they've 1. nearly gone to war with Russian in the past and 2. are having economic problems of their own, and now they're finding all their Russian-based stuff isn't up to par.

Russian armed forces aren't even being paid: https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1577633032042938368?s=46&t=Z0ZQ5xI2N0KC3cCyVymHGA

So you're saying my theory of Putey pute being fed poor information on their readiness status by people wanting to save their own necks and pad their bank accounts might have more validity.

bobzilla said:

 

So you're saying my theory of Putey pute being fed poor information on their readiness status by people wanting to save their own necks and pad their bank accounts might have more validity.

It would seem obvious. But a smart guy like Putin should know this and have a network of people he can count on to be honest with him. If he doesn't, he's not as smart as I thought. 

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

Megalomaniacs never want to be told they are wrong, no matter how smart they are. 

Ukraine Needs a Guarantee From NATO

By Andrew A. Michta

E uropean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has expressed optimism in recent weeks about Ukraine’s progress toward membership in the European Union. While such prospects are important to the country’s postwar reconstruction, they are secondary to questions concerning its security, sovereignty and survival. On that score, however, Ms. von der Leyen and other European leaders have been largely quiet. To confront those matters would force them to entertain a more consequential development—namely, Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Ukraine is a midsize power targeted by a nuclear-armed neighbor. No amount of institutional reform will change that grim reality. Euro-peans are wasting valuable time by focusing primarily on Ukraine’s accession to the EU instead of pushing for a debate about how to bring the country into NATO—or at

least how to ensure its security short of full membership.

Such deliberations are necessary because the future of NATO depends on what happens in Ukraine. With few exceptions, member states have significantly disarmed since the end of the Cold War. At present, it would take at least a decade to restore a semblance of real military power across the Continent. Ukraine arguably has Europe’s strongest military with combat- tested soldiers and a proven ability to operate jointly against the Russian military even without all the necessary weapons and equipment.

Brussels’ focus on Ukraine joining the EU increasingly looks like a way of avoiding hard security questions confronting the West. To remain viable, institutions need to reflect the power realities on the ground. If they don’t, they become irrelevant— no matter how many senior meetings they convene, or how many declarations they publish.

NATO has been on autopilot for the past three decades because the threat environment no longer required it to be the premier vehicle for collective Western defense. That has changed significantly since February. According to its new “strategic concept,” unveiled at its June summit in Madrid, the alliance is back in the business of deterrence and defense. How, then, can it not join arms with the one country on the forefront of the fight?

NATO leaders didn’t worry about alienating Moscow in 1955, when West Germany joined the alliance a decade after World War II. They understood Germany was essential to deterrence and defense in Europe. The same dynamic applies today, as Ukraine stands in the doorway, preventing a Russian intruder from entering Europe.

Until and unless European governments have a serious conversation about what path they can offer Ukraine to become an integral part of NATO’s defensive

The focus on membership in the EU looks like a way of avoiding hard security questions facing the West.

perimeter—if not of the alliance itself—we will be talking about secondary issues, avoiding the principal challenge staring us in the face.

Mr. Michta is dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall Euro-pean Center for Security Studies in Garmisch, Germany, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

Sweden reports that they've collected evidence that the pipeline rupture was due to sabotage but they haven't given any details:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sweden-nord-stream-pipeline-1.6608026

Michta ignores a few basic points that make his conclusion rather difficult to accept. First, the reason why NATO and EU leaders haven't brought up Ukrainian accession is because they know that it's a non-starter. Accession requires unanimous consent, and Turkey and Hungary will not join in without some serious incentivizing. Knowing that, bringing it up formally only to be rejected publicly only serves to weaken Western leverage with Ukraine, and make it more difficult to compel them to recognize Western objectives.

Second, to compare Ukraine with West Germany in 1955 is a stretch, to be polite. NATO accession for Germany only came after years of protracted negotiations with France and other member states, as well as the establishment of the European Coal & Steel Community in 1951, tying Germany's economy into Europe years prior to integrating its military. Further, West Germany offered limited military capabilities at that point, having only begun to rearm a few years earlier, so there was little immediate military gain, which is quite the opposite of what Michta is suggesting for Ukraine.

Finally, he states "Brussels’ focus on Ukraine joining the EU increasingly looks like a way of avoiding hard security questions confronting the West. To remain viable, institutions need to reflect the power realities on the ground. If they don’t, they become irrelevant— no matter how many senior meetings they convene, or how many declarations they publish." This is hard to swallow, given that NATO managed to remain viable for thirty years with basically nothing to do. The fact that the war in Ukraine has made it suddenly relevant again does reflect the "realities on the ground"; no country knows that better than Ukraine.

I understand the impulse behind this sort of statement, but the mechanics of it are deeply flawed once you start to think about it.

Some updates:

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone.
• The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General.
• Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
• Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
• Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5.
• Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5.

This is an interesting piece (in spite of the obviously provocative title) by George Beebe, formerly head of CIA's Russian analysis: Why Elon Musk is right

In reply to 02Pilot :

There is a Big Lebowski meme here.

This does not mean that Ukraine should not put all the hurt they possibly can against their aggressor.  Fast and hard, while the world is watching.

02Pilot said:

This is an interesting piece (in spite of the obviously provocative title) by George Beebe, formerly head of CIA's Russian analysis: Why Elon Musk is right

So who will end up actually standing up to vlad?  Seems that it needs to happen someplace.

That part I struggle with.  If we let him have some of the land he got by force, what's next?  It's not going to end.  He'll just say "I'll nuke you if you stop me from invading X" and we will have to let him.

Yea, I get he sees himself being surrounded by US and US influence.  Again, he's had 30 years to put together an economy for the countries of the former Soviet Union- that would be the easiest buffer to the US of all time.  But while some of them pulled themselves out of the communist hole, he just dug it deeper.  

Given the talk that is coming from a lot of russians- that also points out how people can be convinced of something that isn't real, and also not know how alternatives can be.  Many of them honestly think that the EU is starving and freezing right now- when they are not.  It's not until the call up has happened that people have questioned what is going on, publicly.

Didn't George W Bush have a good working relationship with Pooty Poot? Can't he just call up his boy and be like "Yo Vladdington, fux up? Idn't it time to put the brakes on this?"

Nothing else is getting through to the guy.

alfadriver said:

02Pilot said:

This is an interesting piece (in spite of the obviously provocative title) by George Beebe, formerly head of CIA's Russian analysis: Why Elon Musk is right

So who will end up actually standing up to vlad?  Seems that it needs to happen someplace.

That part I struggle with.  If we let him have some of the land he got by force, what's next?  It's not going to end.  He'll just say "I'll nuke you if you stop me from invading X" and we will have to let him.

Yea, I get he sees himself being surrounded by US and US influence.  Again, he's had 30 years to put together an economy for the countries of the former Soviet Union- that would be the easiest buffer to the US of all time.  But while some of them pulled themselves out of the communist hole, he just dug it deeper.  

Given the talk that is coming from a lot of russians- that also points out how people can be convinced of something that isn't real, and also not know how alternatives can be.  Many of them honestly think that the EU is starving and freezing right now- when they are not.  It's not until the call up has happened that people have questioned what is going on, publicly.

The problem with this approach is that is simply assumes that Putin has the same motives, objectives, and understanding of methodologies of achieving them that are common in the West. Building a modern market economy was never going to happen on his watch. Similarly, by imputing (no pun intended) him with a single-minded drive to conquer simply because that's what it seems like to Western eyes, we are ignoring the fact that there is considerable evidence suggesting a more nuanced set of goals. That's what I like about Beebe's analysis - agree with it or not, he is at least treating Putin and Russia as something other than a one-dimensional caricature leading a monolith.

Just to illustrate the point, consider how Lyndon Johnson looked to the average North Vietnamese. Did they recognize that the US effort in Vietnam was part of a global Cold War strategy of containment, that the use of force was intended to achieve political outcomes not only in Vietnam but with China, the Soviet Union, and even US allies, or that Johnson faced significant and growing domestic political pressure to either win the war or get out? No, they just knew that he was the one ordering the bombings that killed people and broke things. The Communist leadership knew it wasn't that simple, and used all of these factors to their advantage (one historian who has written extensively on North Vietnam told me he found a file in their archives marked "Intelligence on US policy" or something similar - it contained clippings from the NY Times); by viewing Putin simplistically, we are leaving cards on the table that could be utilized to reduce risks, lower tensions, and end the conflict diplomatically.

On a vaguely related note, we are within the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis - Soviet nuclear warheads arrived in Cuba on 4 Oct 62. The National Security Archive is publishing daily updates of documents from the period, which are quite interesting.

In reply to 02Pilot :

So what turned the former Soviet states to the west?  That's what we are talking about here, and vlad's paranoia around it.

The news from Ukraine was that they were tired of the corruption and wanted real opportunity- which is something vlad was not offering.

There's two reasons that I see countries associate with other countries- security and opportunity.  There's not an "ism" that is a factor anymore.  

alfadriver said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

So what turned the former Soviet states to the west?  That's what we are talking about here, and vlad's paranoia around it.

The news from Ukraine was that they were tired of the corruption and wanted real opportunity- which is something vlad was not offering.

There's two reasons that I see countries associate with other countries- security and opportunity.  There's not an "ism" that is a factor anymore.  

Agree. Again.

02, you seem to discuss this with an air of "Well Putin felt encroached upon by the west, what else could he have done?", and the answer is "Make his own country better and quit worrying about imaginary boogeymen"

It really is very similar to Berlin in this regard. I am not saying Ukraine was a perfect and corruption-free environment where everyone's rights were respected, I am saying that if your neighbor is doing better than you with largely the same deck, then maybe you could just do better instead of invading them, because this isn't the year 1400. What does Putin do now? The same thing, go back home and concentrate on making his country better. If someone throws him out of a window in the meantime, that's the bed he made. It's likely going to happen anyway. Killing thousands of innocents in addition to whatever has been done isn't going to make it any better.

The Washington Post reports that a member of Putin's inner circle confronted him over his handling of the Ukraine war.  U.S. Intelligence deemed the incident significant enough to include it in the President's daily intelligence briefing.  I would link the article but it's behind a paywall..  

In reply to 02Pilot :

I think the problem is there is no diplomatic solution left that would be acceptable to Ukraine, other than get the hell out of Ukraine.  Putin's likely last off ramp was to retreat to the borders of LPR and DPR, and claim victory.  I suspect most of Ukraine's European allies would have pushed for a cease fire at that point.  But, with all the continual atrocities, he's backed himself into a corner that I just do not see a way out of.  He has to defeat (or destroy) Ukraine, or the circling vultures are going to go after him.  Even if the front line stabilizes, he looks weak for having brought down his already weak economy over what was a war of choice, not necessity, no matter what he claims.

On a larger geopolitical scale, it does not matter what Putin thinks.  If the world is ever going to move forward, wars of conquest need to be dealt with harshly.

Looks like Russia's elite rent-a-soldiers are running out of ammo and people too:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/europe/wagner-ukraine-struggles-marat-gabidullin-cmd-intl/index.html