History in the Making: Russian Invasion

All of the cuts to direct support are clearly being done to twist Zelensky's arm and get him on board with Trump's peace effort. As I noted long before Trump was reelected, the biggest hurdle to any sort of peace talks was always going to be Ukraine's insistence on maximalist aims. These were always a fantasy, no matter what was being said publicly by Ukraine's supporters, unless the objective was simply to keep Russia fighting in the hopes that it would eventually cause Putin's domestic base of support to crack. Zelensky seems to have gotten the message.

Once talks start, whichever side is seen by the Trump administration as being intransigent will inevitably be subject to similar treatment. If Ukraine is playing ball and the Russians aren't, expect lots of new aid to Ukraine to be mooted and, if the Russians don't come back to the table, sent.

Some related info, on the subject of other crap Russia is doing.  The US has recently made a very aggressive statement toward Hamas, and of course the Houthi's base their actions on what is happening there (Yeman has taken some serious hits from Israel and the US of couse).

----

US sanctions on Houthi officials for coordinating with Russia demonstrate how Russia facilitates Iranian-backed groups’ terrorism in the Middle East. The United States designated the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization and sanctioned eight Houthi officials for facilitating attacks on international shipping and for recruiting Yemenis to fight for Russia in Ukraine.[1] Houthi officials threatened unspecified military actions in response to US sanctions.[2] Russia has both provided intelligence for attacks on international shipping and attempted to recruit Yemenis to fight in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Western reporting.[3] The US Treasury stated that Russia and China colluded with the Houthis to ensure that the Houthis would not attack Russian and Chinese-flagged vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.[4] The Kremlin reportedly provided targeting intelligence to the Houthis to support attacks on US and international vessels. This activity, which includes the provision of intelligence to the Houthis that could improve the Houthis’ ability to damage US or international vessels and kill US Navy sailors or third country merchant mariners, demonstrates how Russia seeks to undermine US interests in the Middle East. Russia, given its role supporting Iranian-backed Houthi campaigns in the Middle East, would not help secure US interests in the Middle East as a mediator between the United States and Iran.[5]

----

Also, there is, as noted previously, still some possibilities of attacks on Iran by Israel / US.  No huge changes here, but I though this was a cool shot of a recent US / Israeli training exercise.  F-35's, an F-15 (looks like a Strike Eagle) and a B-52 which is likely older then most people you know (!)

I'm curious - what are people's opinions on a good or ideal outcome vs a realistic outcome in this conflict? 

Here's mine:
 

Ideal Outcome - Russia retreats, giving back Ukraine all of its territory including Crimea, pays reparations to Ukraine, which also gets NATO membership and help from the west in rebuilding. Summary: Russia loses badly and Putin loses power for his failure. Obviously a pipedream, but I feel like this is how modern unjust invasions should go.

Realistic Outcome - Russia gets to retain some amount of control over eastern Ukraine, USA gets minerals, Ukraine gets helps rebuilding, but not NATO guarantees. Putin claims victory and uses this as his legacy as one of Russia's greatest leaders. 

In reply to aircooled :

Hey, that's one of my B-52s, looks like we need to get some paint on that thing. What are those black squiggly lines on the rear elevator wings?

pheller said:

I'm curious - what are people's opinions on a good or ideal outcome vs a realistic outcome in this conflict? 

Here's mine:
 

Ideal Outcome - Russia retreats, giving back Ukraine all of its territory including Crimea, pays reparations to Ukraine, which also gets NATO membership and help from the west in rebuilding. Summary: Russia loses badly and Putin loses power for his failure and steps out of a 10th floor window. Obviously a pipedream, but I feel like this is how modern unjust invasions should go.

Realistic Outcome - Russia gets to retain some amount of control over eastern Ukraine, USA gets minerals, Ukraine gets helps rebuilding, but not NATO guarantees. Putin claims victory and uses this as his legacy as one of Russia's greatest leaders. 

I fixed that for you.

VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to aircooled :

Hey, that's one of my B-52s, looks like we need to get some paint on that thing. What are those black squiggly lines on the rear elevator wings?

Safe to Walk Area

pheller said:

Ideal Outcome - Russia retreats, giving back Ukraine all of its territory including Crimea, pays reparations to Ukraine, which also gets NATO membership and help from the west in rebuilding. Summary: Russia loses badly and Putin loses power for his failure. Obviously a pipedream, but I feel like this is how modern unjust invasions should go.

Realistic Outcome - Russia gets to retain some amount of control over eastern Ukraine, USA gets minerals, Ukraine gets helps rebuilding, but not NATO guarantees. Putin claims victory and uses this as his legacy as one of Russia's greatest leaders. 

Mostly agree with this, but in my ideal outcome Putin would also be arrested and tried for war crimes and sentenced to life in prison, but on the way to the prison the guards stop for lunch and the truck with Putin in it rolls down a hill through an asbestos dump and then crashes into the Terrible Zoo of Just Box Jellyfish and Tropical Centipedes where the truck breaks open and he's ejected into the zoo but his rescue takes several hours due to the asbestos plume

VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to aircooled :

Hey, that's one of my B-52s, looks like we need to get some paint on that thing. What are those black squiggly lines on the rear elevator wings?

Yeah, I don't know.  Certainly not a repair.  Kind of strange for walk areas, being so irregular and different on each horizontal stab.  Also, not on the wings...  maybe some sort of really weird antenna!?!

In reply to pheller :

Yeah, I think the realistic outcome has been pretty well known / predicted for a while.  The big first step so far seems to be getting the Ukrainians to realize that (as painful as it is).

The BIG trick at this point is making any sort of progress with the Russians.  The Ukrainians seems to have taken at least a small step towards the possibility of ceasefire/ talks / conclusion, but we really still have nothing from the Russians.  They of course will play "we want it all" up to the last possible moment, but it's clear they are hurting.

The US seems like they want to push Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, but clearly, the Russians have to agree to that also!!!  I am very curious to see how that goes!

Meanwhile, in Russia... the heartbeat of it's economy beats every slower...

As someone is predicting:  Ones the war is over, and the "adrenaline" of the war subsides, it's heart attack time! (this of course is a potential negotiating angle)

Ukraine is fighting from the heart. It seems so easy to take an arms length look and make a practical prediction on how they should behave. But telling them they are beat and should just give up is a little naive. They will continue to fight unless the deal that is forced on them is very palatable. They will no more do the "sensible" thing than any other invaded country with a proud history and a strong sense of nationalism would. If they lose support they will lose more quickly but it will be on their terms. 

In reply to aircooled :

I'm curious about what the US's expectations are on Russia's commitment to a peace deal. They have to be ready for them to say "No." If so, I'd expect a huge increase in support for Ukraine to beat Russia back. I don't see us committing just enough to continue the stalemate or lose- if Russia turns down the peace deal, I'd expect the support to be overwhelming. Maybe a big push  to get Russia to return to the table.

Another Russian general missile attack.  Apparently going after energy infrastucture.  They also recently hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih (west of Dnipro).

Developments in Kursk area.  The Russians are still being very aggressive.  Apparently Korean troops are being used again in large numbers.  Map from the beginning of the month and currently.  It's not quite as bad as it looks since all the lower left is Ukraine.  They are clearly going for the main road (the light green, where the Russians initially invaded down).  Zooming in on the map makes it look like they advanced along a wooded area, which was likely helpful in avoiding drones.

In reply to aircooled :

With talks apparently in the offing, I would expect very aggressive actions from both sides.

In other news, Trump is "strongly considering" new sanctions on Russia as a result of the latest attacks.

pheller said:

Realistic Outcome - Russia gets to retain some amount of control over eastern Ukraine, USA gets minerals, Ukraine gets helps rebuilding, but not NATO guarantees. Putin claims victory and uses this as his legacy as one of Russia's greatest leaders. 

Perhaps I'm pessimistic, but I can't help but add:

5 years later Russia invades again to get the rest of it.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

It's hard to say.  Based on how the US is approaching the Hamas situation, that might be an expectation, but it's clearly a different situation here. 

To give a visual of what the land situation is likely to look like.  I can see the Russians backing off to only taking what they have already annexed. The 4 Oblasts that can be seen below.  They will likely demand everything east of the Dnipro river (all those northeastern Oblasts they have no troops in), that that's pretty unrealistic.  It seems highly unlikely the Ukrainians would ever agree to giving up anything west of the Dnipro which there are two small areas shown below.

The approximate current front line situation.  As is obvious here, the Russians are far from controlling those annexed Oblasts.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Your link seems to just go to the main page.  I think this is the more direct link:  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg70jylp32gt?post=asset%3A87f377ab-8e28-43c0-ac22-e15dc2e9c0f5#post

Trump says he's considering fresh sanctions and tariffs on Russia

Donald Trump says he's considering new sanctions and tariffs on Russia, following a wave of overnight strikes on Ukraine.

He writes: "Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.

"To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!"

Perhaps the focus might be shifting a bit toward Russia?

Some idea where Russia stands:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations.[1] Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. Putin noted that Russian societal unity is critical for Russian victory in Ukraine.[2] Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues. Putin stated that Russia "will not give up" its "own" territory in future peace negotiations — likely referring to illegally annexed territory in occupied Ukraine.[3] ...

Also:

US and Ukrainian delegations will conduct bilateral meetings in Saudi Arabia next week.

....Witkoff stated on March 6 that the US-Ukrainian bilateral meeting is intended to "get down a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire."[19] ...

...US Special Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg emphasized on March 6 that the early 2022 Istanbul protocols are not an "equitable framework" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and stated that the US should "develop something entirely new."...

One wonders if the commentators will opine as to how can their be peace talks without Russia being involved!  

From Mil.in.ua

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/konveyer-smerti-po-vsij-rosiyi-znahodyat-zvalyshha-tsynkovyh-trun/

Conveyor of death. Dumps of zinc coffins are found all over Russia

War with Russia Russia's losses Russia World Neighborhood

In various regions of Russia, cases of discovery of spontaneous dumps of zinc coffins have become more frequent.

The Moscow Times reported that the coffins were intended to transport the bodies of deceased Russian soldiers.

" The scale of the finds is impressive: dozens, and sometimes hundreds, of coffins are found abandoned in the open, often near train stations or morgues, " the publication said.

Local residents who discover these grisly finds are raising the alarm, reporting a terrible stench and a sanitary and epidemiological threat.

The authorities, as a rule, ignore the messages or limit themselves to formal replies.

" It's just some kind of conveyor belt of death. They're dumped here like junk, no one takes care of recycling ," says a resident of one of the villages near Yekaterinburg, where about a hundred zinc coffins were discovered.

The publication links such a mass discovery to the significant losses of the Russian army in Ukraine and the inability of the military department to organize proper logistics and disposal.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Ukraine is fighting from the heart. It seems so easy to take an arms length look and make a practical prediction on how they should behave. But telling them they are beat and should just give up is a little naive. They will continue to fight unless the deal that is forced on them is very palatable. They will no more do the "sensible" thing than any other invaded country with a proud history and a strong sense of nationalism would. If they lose support they will lose more quickly but it will be on their terms. 

The polling on this says the majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated settlement now, and that giving up land is acceptable.

I think it was 7 million people that have fled the country of a relatively small population.

In reply to Opti.

​They want peace but not any at price. Settlements in the past have not resulted in anything positive or they would not be in the fix they are currently in.

War fatigue is real, as illustrated by a poll conducted by Gallup in November, in which 52 percent of respondents said they supported negotiations. However, when it comes to any territorial concessions, only 27 percent said Ukraine should consider such a step. A clear majority of Ukrainians reject giving up any land as part of a peace agreement.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/08/america-vetoes-g7-proposal-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/08/america-vetoes-g7-proposal-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Opti.

​They want peace but not any at price. Settlements in the past have not resulted in anything positive or they would not be in the fix they are currently in.

Past settlements have not been successful because they did not contain workable enforcement mechanisms.

Had the G7 resolution passed with US support, Russia could easily have used it as an excuse to walk away from the table, claiming bias. Trump is trying to set the US up as a broker, something that requires a degree of neutrality, hence the recent aid cuts to Ukraine. He is resetting the table, and once that's done and talks start, I'm sure any and all levers will once again be available (and likely necessary) to bring parties back to negotiations after one impasse or another. The Russian shadow fleet is an important part of how they keep their economy going - I'm 100% sure it's on the list of US arm-twisting options, but now is not the time for it, at least on Trump's timeline.

I do not totally understand the Russian wave missile attacks on infrastructure.  I understand the idea of breaking the will of the government or the will of the people, but wouldn't those weapons have a better result if they were used against military targets?  Of course this is an army that is STILL using meat waves when attacking.

War fatigue is real, as illustrated by a poll conducted by Gallup in November, in which 52 percent of respondents said they supported negotiations. However, when it comes to any territorial concessions, only 27 percent said Ukraine should consider such a step. A clear majority of Ukrainians reject giving up any land as part of a peace agreement.

As far as this goes perhaps Ukraine should ask for parts of Russia to be given to Ukraine as war reparations.  We will start at the original border and take 200km east.  As Russia is the original aggressor in this instance, why not?  Yes, I know it would never work.  But it should not work that Russia would keep what they have already taken.

Forgive me for vast oversimplification, but ultimately a successful negotiation is about what you can get, not what you want, or what is "right."