The future as I see it.

Yesterday I went to the local grocery store.  We'd placed our order on line over the weekend  and I simply pulled up, texted my arrival and a few minutes later they put it in the trunk. No fee. no tip. 
They've had that service for more than a year but this was our first time using it.  

Hopefully Someone will come up with an app that searches competitive nearby stores for like items. And we aren't spending hours spreadsheeting, looking for the best bargains. 

We have  been using Amazon and other delivery services for household and other goods rather than driving to a  store. That was saving us hours of driving and parking.  Usage of the cars is minimized. 

She works at home and the first 4 years of commuting and  shopping she averaged nearly 24,000 miles a year. The last three years her car use is less than 5,000 yearly. That makes her Honda a lifetime car. 

Russia and Saudi Arabia are in a price war. With decreasing usage.   Leaving other countries selling oil wondering where the markets went. Will oil go the way of coal? Simply made obsolete? 
 

Sure makes a clear case for Electric cars.  Commuting will decrease in the future. Both for work and for shopping. With the advent of LED 's and other energy savings plus all the new small scale renewables of Solar & Wind the ability to charge transportation at night is going to make logical sense. 

Coal? Obsolete?

bruh. You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

Coal isn't gone, but I recall reading that Arby's has more employees than the entire USA coal industry.

I wish I could cite the source.

Renewables are getting cheaper all of the time.

barefootskater said:

Coal? Obsolete?

bruh. You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

Coal is going away. Coal jobs are going away. Natural gas is cheaper than coal now, and unless you plan on banning fracking, that is not going to change. No power company is going to say, "Hey, I want to use that more expensive legacy fuel!"

If you read past the headline, though, you will see that that doesn't mean that we are turning into a warm fuzzy green economy, either.  

2019 was not a fluke either.  The downturn in coal usage is a real trend.  

"EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U.S. coal consumption has been falling since its peak in 2007, and EIA forecasts that 2018 coal consumption will be 437 MMst (44%) lower than 2007 levels, mainly driven by declines in coal use in the electric power sector."

https://www.technology.org/2018/12/05/u-s-coal-consumption-in-2018-expected-to-be-the-lowest-in-39-years/

I've been thinking about this too, and I've actually come up with 2 opposite reactions to it than what you posted above: 

1. While I definitely agree that we will see a lot more permanent WFH situations, or come in only on Tuesdays, I also think that there are a lot of people who thought "WFH will be GREAT!" only to find out it is still work, they're working a lot more because they're always at work, and/or they can't get anything done because there are too many distractions
2. I think that this will potentially improve the personal perception of ICE vehicles. I personally was looking for something more efficient for the commute. Now? I haven't filled up in over a month. It wouldn't matter if I was driving a Prius or a Ramcharger, I'm not burning any gas. 

To expand on this some, for the first point... I definitely think that there will be a lot of companies that realize that their lease costs an exorbinant amount of money for something that is not necessary. THIS IS NOT EVERY COMPANY, but definitely the last 4 jobs I've had, and 5/6 jobs I've had total (after graduating college, not including reffing hockey or caddying) - that is across 4 companies, 2 of which are F500. 

We're also going to see people saying "Wow, I am SO much happier working from home". For me, it is because I can have lunch with my wife, change my daughters diaper once or twice during the work day, and because I get about 2 hours back in my day. Think about it... I have to be at work (at work meaning logged into my computer) at 8AM. 30 minute commute. 30 minutes to get ready. On the back end, it is another 30-45 minute commute, I'm grumpy from it, it has cost me money in gas and possibly tolls if there was an accident on the normal route, I eat out less, etc. 

And then there will be the people who it just doesn't work for - not because the job doesn't cater to it, but because they're not good WFH people, or they don't have a homespace that it works well for. 

And that isn't to say that in person will go totally away, even for those that are close to 100% work from home. For our office in Orlando, for instance, instead of having an entire building, we could have a few floors and rotate what teams are in the office - XYZ team is in on Mondays, ABC is in on Tuesdays, 123 on Wednesdays, etc. Some will need to be there 5 days a week, but a call center employee reading a prompt on a computer? They can do that at home, and transfer a call to their supervisor as easy as they could in a cube farm. 

This will probably also eventually result in actually getting fiber to homes, like the $400B investment from the taxpayers should have done. 

barefootskater said:

You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

'All' is a strong word.  In Minnesota, where Frenchy and I live, coal is only about 1/3 of the energy source and the percentage is getting smaller every year.

In reply to JoeyM :

I'm typical. Not ahead of the curve. Not lagging just average.  Remember most Americans are urbanites. Not rural. 
 

This self isolation is not going away immediately or even quickly.  Look at when the anticipated  anti Covid 19 shot is expected to be in common use for that date.  
 

All those months stuck in homes is likely enough time to change habits. No not everyone, but enough so the trend is accelerated.   
 

Look at Europe. personal miles driven is way behind    Here in America.  Right now  a range of 200 miles  is enough for daily usage of 90%  of the population. 
 

Where we here in America tend to drive up to 150 miles visiting family and friends. In Europe much over  50 miles train usage is common. 

I'm one of those people who prefer working at work, rather than at home.  Mainly, I'm more productive when I get in the car and going to a dedicated work space.   There are other factors, like having to email a coworker and then wait for their response instead of just walking 20 feet to their desk, or not having a printer or copy machine available.  

Something else I'm running into during this pandemic shutdown is needing a project file, but not being able to access it because it's in my desk at work.

stuart in mn said:

I'm one of those people who prefer working at work, rather than at home.  Mainly, I'm more productive when I get in the car and going to a dedicated work space.   There are other factors, like having to email a coworker and then wait for their response instead of just walking 20 feet to their desk, or not having a printer or copy machine available.  

Something else I'm running into during this pandemic shutdown is needing a project file, but not being able to access it because it's in my desk at work.

What are you printing out these days? In two years, I haven't used the printer at work for anything except printing out shipping labels for stuff I've sold on eBay. Also, for the walking 20 feet... Instant Messenger! Or pick up the phone, which is now a term akin to hanging up the phone - nothing to hang up, and I make my phone calls using my computer now. I have a cell phone for work, but 90% of its use is as a hotspot.

But this reminds me of a co-worker at my first "real" job, as opposed to those fake ones I had before. This was in 2012, and the guy in question was probably 65 years old. We had to upload PDF's to a server that we created from printing a webpage. This guy would print the webpage, go to the scanner, scan it in as a pdf, then upload it. I showed him how you could print to PDF... He did not understand this at all. He also typed using 2 fingers, and would shut his computer down every night by holding the power button. 

I agree with the premise of this discussion. There's definitely going to be acceleration of some long-term societal changes in how we work, shop, etc. 

Personally, I'm sitting it out at home. My work is totally hands on, so that won't change for me personally. We've already been doing more and more online shopping over the last year.

In reply to stuart in mn :

We are similar in that respect. I'm not disciplined enough to work from home. 
My wife is and far away prefers it. The distractions of the "water cooler" gossiping, competition for clothing, hair styles,  etc. she finds annoying and expensive. Truth be told there are days she's in her night gown and slippers. 
 

As you can imagine Banks are extremely cost conscious and if they didn't find significant cost savings and production output from telecommuting  they'd have everyone marching into the office every day.  
With data logging on every keystroke, and teleconferencing not only can they track her communication is faster.  

You mentioned walking 20 feet to ask a question etc. What that doesn't say is the cost of the interruption to ask a question.  By E mail questions can be answered  in a timely manner.  It's time stamped as to when the question was asked and the computer averages  that persons response time versus their output etc. Yeh, I know, Big brother watching.  

As a project manager most of my wife's time is spent in communication around the world. One minute she may be writing to a programmer in India and another  sorting out a security issue in Ireland. As global banking increases, translation tools are getting better and better, not only conversation but also idioms and  syntax.    

mtn said:

stuart in mn said:

I'm one of those people who prefer working at work, rather than at home.  Mainly, I'm more productive when I get in the car and going to a dedicated work space.   There are other factors, like having to email a coworker and then wait for their response instead of just walking 20 feet to their desk, or not having a printer or copy machine available.  

Something else I'm running into during this pandemic shutdown is needing a project file, but not being able to access it because it's in my desk at work.

What are you printing out these days? In two years, I haven't used the printer at work for anything except printing out shipping labels for stuff I've sold on eBay. Also, for the walking 20 feet... Instant Messenger! Or pick up the phone, which is now a term akin to hanging up the phone - nothing to hang up, and I make my phone calls using my computer now. I have a cell phone for work, but 90% of its use is as a hotspot.

 

But this reminds me of a co-worker at my first "real" job, as opposed to those fake ones I had before. This was in 2012, and the guy in question was probably 65 years old. We had to upload PDF's to a server that we created from printing a webpage. This guy would print the webpage, go to the scanner, scan it in as a pdf, then upload it. I showed him how you could print to PDF... He did not understand this at all. He also typed using 2 fingers, and would shut his computer down every night by holding the power button. 

That's me, I'm a real Luddite.  I'm proud of the fact that I was a very early user of the car phone, cellphone ( when it was brick sized)  and Fax. 
but at Age 72 I'm a 2 finger typist. Can't do things on a computer/ smart phone  most of today's workers do without thinking. 

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:

Coal isn't gone, but I recall reading that Arby's has more employees than the entire USA coal industry.

I wish I could cite the source.

Renewables are getting cheaper all of the time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/31/8-surprisingly-small-industries-that-employ-more-people-than-coal/

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:

I agree with the premise of this discussion. There's definitely going to be acceleration of some long-term societal changes in how we work, shop, etc. 

Personally, I'm sitting it out at home. My work is totally hands on, so that won't change for me personally. We've already been doing more and more online shopping over the last year.

Absolutely. There is going to be a constant need for hands on people. Not just medical either , construction, repair, etc etc.  But I suspect transportation costs will start to be an itemized thing. 
 

mtn said:

 This was in 2012, and the guy in question was probably 65 years old. We had to upload PDF's to a server that we created from printing a webpage. This guy would print the webpage, go to the scanner, scan it in as a pdf, then upload it. 

Hell, one of my bosses is 45 and HE does that ish.  I'm 55 and wouldn't dream of it.

stuart in mn said:

I'm one of those people who prefer working at work, rather than at home.  Mainly, I'm more productive when I get in the car and going to a dedicated work space.   There are other factors, like having to email a coworker and then wait for their response instead of just walking 20 feet to their desk, or not having a printer or copy machine available.  

Something else I'm running into during this pandemic shutdown is needing a project file, but not being able to access it because it's in my desk at work.

The dedicated work space is the difference for me. My setup in my home office is nicer than what I have in the office. But we already worked from home 2-3 days per week before this started.

I NEED two screens to be able to do my job, which I have at the office and my home office......and with the laptop open I have 3 screens. If I was just working on the tiny laptop at the kitchen table it would be hard for me to be effective.

JoeyM said:

barefootskater said:

Coal? Obsolete?

bruh. You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

 

Coal is going away. Coal jobs are going away. Natural gas is cheaper than coal now, and unless you plan on banning fracking, that is not going to change. No power company is going to say, "Hey, I want to use that more expensive legacy fuel!"

If you read past the headline, though, you will see that that doesn't mean that we are turning into a warm fuzzy green economy, either.  

https://www.technology.org/2018/12/05/u-s-coal-consumption-in-2018-expected-to-be-the-lowest-in-39-years/

I actually looked this up for Oregon since I cannot even remember a time when coal power was a thing here. There is actually one coal fired power plant that provides a whopping 2% of our states needs.

It has been hydroelectric since the 80's here with natural gas filling in the gaps (more and more each year with our population growth)

I'm glad to hear someone has had a good experience with the grocery pickup.

My wife tried it.  she sat for 1 1/2 hours waiting.

A friend tried it.  2 hr wait.

Another friend tried it this week..  She has a brain tumor and a seriously compromised immune system.  She really had no options.  She sat in the car for 3 1/2 hours crying.  THAT'S criminal.

The ordering systems are in place, but the fulfillment systems suck.  Stores simply don't have the staff who can stop what they are doing and fill orders.  Its a great concept, but it won't work until they dedicate people to order fulfillment, and not try to use people who are trained and busy dealing with walk-in customers.

​​In reply to JoeyM :

I'm typical. Not ahead of the curve. Not lagging just average.  Remember most Americans are urbanites. Not rural. 

I'm not disagreeing at all with your premise that there will be lasting societal change.  I do wonder if it will be towards pure EVs

My complaint was with the claim (not yours) that EVs are "powered by coal." That is currently hyperbole, and within 20 years will probably be completely false.

(in an earlier version of this post, which I deleted to avoid being politically inflammatory, there was a very amusing daily show clip.)

Trent (Forum Supporter) said:

JoeyM said:

barefootskater said:

Coal? Obsolete?

bruh. You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

 

Coal is going away. Coal jobs are going away. Natural gas is cheaper than coal now, and unless you plan on banning fracking, that is not going to change. No power company is going to say, "Hey, I want to use that more expensive legacy fuel!"

I actually looked this up for Oregon since I cannot even remember a time when coal power was a thing here. There is actually one coal fired power plant that provides a whopping 2% of our states needs.

that makes sense. Even places that are coal powered are trying to get away from it. Tx shut down three coal fired power plants in one year.   This is the major takehome from that article, though.

• "Now the coal market has slumped so severely that not a single new coal plant has been proposed in the entire nation."    

https://www.texasobserver.org/coal-plants-offline-air-central-east-texas/

I am an importer and I have seen no difference in total sales at this point, but what I have seen is that the authorized online reseller of my products went from about thirty per sent of my total sales to about 60 or 70 per cent in March. And his business overall doubled in a month. People still need the product (thank goodness) but they are not willing to drive to a store to pick it up. And I do not see that changing even after we get back to a new normal. Like Frenchie, my wife and I have done our last two grocery orders online, and we sat there drinking alcohol and clicking which beat the heck out of raging around a crowded super store with everyone else. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

 Its a great concept, but it won't work until they dedicate people to order fulfillment, and not try to use people who are trained and busy dealing with walk-in customers.

I think this is the revolutionary opportunity.  The entire need for "store front", "shelf space"... virtually everything related to human convenience and creature comforts can be eliminated.  An optimized pick and place system designed solely around order fullfillment and efficiency.  Heck you wouldn't even need lighting or comfortable temperatures in places that would be better served as an entire refrigerated section.  No checkout people.  

I understand there's some scrutiny around loose and fresh produce, but even most of those could theoretically be graded/weighed and inspected in the same way factories use camera analysis on coatings and welds and paint.  

Order online, show up at designated time slot, and grab your order from your own externally accessible cooler like a P.O. box, and/or curbside personnel bring it directly to you queued up by a license plate scanner at the drive through entry.  

Further enhanced by building your profile of repeat regular purchases, it could offer up meal ideas similar to Pandora music suggestions, and/or orchestrate diet based or meal based plans to incorporate all required ingredients without you having to look everything up, i.e. prompt the ingredient list and let you deselect seasonings or things you already have in the pantry.  

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

Here the waits are mostly a result of the quarantine overwhelming the system. Prior to the pandemic we have been using it for at least a year without issues (Walmart).

stuart in mn said:

I'm one of those people who prefer working at work, rather than at home.  Mainly, I'm more productive when I get in the car and going to a dedicated work space.   There are other factors, like having to email a coworker and then wait for their response instead of just walking 20 feet to their desk, or not having a printer or copy machine available. 

I am finding I am both more productive and less. Basically I am finding it easier to focus at home but the lack of being able to just directly talk to someone about somethings is really killing my ability to actually continue to be productive.

That is ignoring the hands on stuff I can only do at the office.

barefootskater said:

Coal? Obsolete?

bruh. You live in 'Murica, your LEDs and electric cars all run on coal. I'm not saying things aren't changing, and for the better, but you gotta be honest. 

Nuclear here.