Where will inflation stop?

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

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z31maniac said:

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

aircooled said:

It seems like food prices are a prime driver.  It seems like many of the food increases are well beyond the stated inflation.  It's also something that is unlikely to be affected by the interest rate hikes (unlikely most will cut down on food purchases!)

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/why-are-food-prices-still-rising/

Eggs up 40%!  (having chickens is certainly helpful here)

General reasons stated in the article are: 

  - Disruption due to COVID (you would think this would be clearing up by now)

  - Ukraine, both as a source of fertilizer, and the destruction of crops which will drive up world food demand / prices.

Of course, if the Ukraine war ended tomorrow, it could still take quite a while to return to normal.  So... don't expect anything to change a lot anytime soon.

Prices do not drive inflation.  Inflation drives prices!  Again, the correct definition of inflation is here in a round a bout way.  Use it to understand the issue. If you can't understand, you can't figure out who can help you fix it.    

So what is the correct definition of inflation? You keep throwing that about without offering "the definition."

See there it is again. Why is it my responsibility to spoon feed you?  All of you are engaging in a long debate about something you can't even define.  I can define it exactly in 6 words.  Three of those words are "in" "the" and "an" too.  Another way of stating it adds a 7th word "of."  
 

I keep saying it, because reality is people complain about things without knowing what the E36 M3 they are even talking about.  You'll never get change for the better like that.  The people causing inflation know exactly what it is and why it hurts you more than it hurts them.  Heck they can even leverage it to their advantage!  If you want to change it, you better figure out what it is.  
 

Let me drop this here again.  
 

We can all continue learning.  One of my sayings is, "you are learning or dying, pick one."  No where does it place a requirement on me to show you everything.  
 

Remember Good Will Hunting?  You can get all the education you want on your own.  Read.  

 

You tell us to read to find the definition, but you tell us everything we read is incorrect. So how could I possibly know the "correct" definition of inflation unless you shared it with us?

He is trying to imply the "secret" of fiat money.   (Which I think pretty much all currencies are now)

It's not really a secret, just that fiat money allows money to be created, and realistically, it has no real value, and is completely dependent on people thinking it has value.

aircooled said:

He is trying to imply the "secret" of fiat money.   (Which I think pretty much all currencies are now)

It's not really a secret, just that fiat money allows money to be created, and realistically, it has no real value, and is completely dependent on people thinking it has value.

That's stating the obvious.

This is exactly why I should ban myself from this forum.  There is no honest discussion here no matter how much back patting occurs.  Our society is totally dysfunctional and shiny happies cheer it on.

There is no secret about fiat currency, but most people don't understand it.

Inflation is an increase in the supply of money, or an increase in the money supply if you want to save a word.  That's it, nothing more or less.

The law of supply and demand is another double whammy we are all feeling now.  
 

Raising interest rates simply increases the cost of borrowing money.  That's a triple whammy in our debt based economy.

So where does money come from?  That's a 4th whammy.  Yep the economy is bad and only serious people can fix it.  

I love how you guys think you are challenging me with 8th grade economics though.  Nice try.  

Once you can speak plainly and define things simply, the solution is obvious too.  The real problem is most people today hide behind a wall of E36 M3, which is how this topic got so long winded to start.  
 

Most everything in our lives is just a problem to solve.  Dishonesty, fear and bad people are what prevent the solution.  You don't have to enable them.  You can stop all of this. They want you to attack me so we are all divided.  Good job!  Let's make things worse, that'll definitely help.  
 

Inflation = an increase in the supply of money (7 words using an, in, the and of).  Now I'm gonna put my spoon away and ask you to start thinking please.  Thinking and working together is the only way we can unE36 M3 this planet.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

This is exactly why I should ban myself from this forum. 

Well.. What are you waiting for?

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

This is exactly why I should ban myself from this forum.  There is no honest discussion here no matter how much back patting occurs.  Our society is totally dysfunctional and shiny happies cheer it on.

There is no secret about fiat currency, but most people don't understand it.

Inflation is an increase in the supply of money, or an increase in the money supply if you want to save a word.  That's it, nothing more or less.

The law of supply and demand is another double whammy we are all feeling now.  
 

Raising interest rates simply increases the cost of borrowing money.  That's a triple whammy in our debt based economy.

So where does money come from?  That's a 4th whammy.  Yep the economy is bad and only serious people can fix it.  

I love how you guys think you are challenging me with 8th grade economics though.  Nice try.  

Once you can speak plainly and define things simply, the solution is obvious too.  The real problem is most people today hide behind a wall of E36 M3, which is how this topic got so long winded to start.  
 

Most everything in our lives is just a problem to solve.  Dishonesty, fear and bad people are what prevent the solution.  You don't have to enable them.  You can stop all of this. They want you to attack me so we are all divided.  Good job!  Let's make things worse, that'll definitely help.  
 

Inflation = an increase in the supply of money (7 words using an, in, the and of).  Now I'm gonna put my spoon away and ask you to start thinking please.  Thinking and working together is the only way we can unE36 M3 this planet.

 

 

Haha, no one has "challenged" you. We simply ask that you explain yourself. And when you do, you present middle-school explanations of things the adults already know and somehow think you are educating the unwashed masses with some great insight.

Next you'll tell me the sky only appears blue because of how light is refracted through the atmosphere and pretend like you're the only one that knows it. 

Go ahead. Recuse yourself from the forum, I doubt you will. There are plenty of forums where people will agree with your BS generalities. And just so you know, we all know why you don't speak in specifics or offer sources. 

I honestly wonder why someone needs to make up things to post on the internet for attention. 

Ouch this is like walking over to a group of people and they are spitting mad arguing about the definition of the right pedal.

1. Go pedal
2. Accelerator pedal
3. Throttle plate request signal generator pedal
4. Gas pedal
5. Loud pedal
6. Happy pedal

I am going to help with massively increasing the rate of inflation of some balloons for a party now........

In reply to Advan046 :

To be fair, I'm not mad. I'm tired of this particular person constantly talking down to everyone while offering no objective proof of their claims. 

I know it shouldn't bother me, but it does. From what I see on other forums and social media, there are many that may just believe his BS. 

Inflation is not the increase in supply of money. That can contribute to/ cause inflation, but that is not what inflation is. The simple definition of inflation is the reduction in purchasing power of the dollar. Inflation is usually fairly constant, so we don't really notice it over the long term- as long as our wage increases keep pace with our cost of goods increases. It's when the two diverge or when we have sudden sharp increases that inflation gets discussed, and the topic is usually rate of inflation rather than inflation itself. 

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

Wrong.  You are describing the symptoms of inflation without defining it.  That's exactly why I requested a word limit.  It's just not that hard.

In reply to z31maniac :

So having condescension returned to you makes you upset?  Hilarious.  

In reply to z31maniac :

Honestly, you're right it's not a challenge,  it's actually painful having to define inflation to seemingly intelligent adults.  That's where we are as a society though.  
 

You simply couldn't define inflation.  You pontificated about it ad nauseum though.  You then challenged or begged me to do it, take your pick.  I did it.  You are still whining about it.  

Now you want to discuss colors of light.  Do you always change the subject when you get called in E36 M3?

Yes, I can easily remove my self from off topic here.  It's a cesspool of E36 M3.  It's a lot of people ignoring real solutions to real problems, ignoring simple truth, and collectively enabling evil people to make the world a terrible place.  They do that all while congratulating each other for being so awesome.  This forum is virtue signaling crap in its highest form.  
 

I will leave this forum with this.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

I'm sorry, but you have it backwards. You are describing a cause, not defining inflation itself. While the two ideas are closely related and -almost- substitutable, they are not. Inflation is often described as an increase in money supply- but that description falls short of a definition. You asked for the definition of inflation. As I stated earlier- 

The reduction in purchasing power of the dollar (unit of currency.) 
 

That's it. If $3 used to buy you a Big Mac, but the same Big Mac now costs $6, that is inflation. Your dollar is less valuable and you now need more of them to buy a Big Mac. That may be because there are more dollars in the system. It may also be that there are less Big Macs. This can be caused by more money in the system. Or it can be caused by less products or labor available with no change in the money supply. We have both factors going on right now. 

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

In reply to z31maniac :

Honestly, you're right it's not a challenge,  it's actually painful having to define inflation to seemingly intelligent adults.  That's where we are as a society though.  
 

You simply couldn't define inflation.  You pontificated about it ad nauseum though.  You then challenged or begged me to do it, take your pick.  I did it.  You are still whining about it.  

Now you want to discuss colors of light.  Do you always change the subject when you get called in E36 M3?

Yes, I can easily remove my self from off topic here.  It's a cesspool of E36 M3.  It's a lot of people ignoring real solutions to real problems, ignoring simple truth, and collectively enabling evil people to make the world a terrible place.  They do that all while congratulating each other for being so awesome.  This forum is virtue signaling crap in its highest form.  
 

I think you are discussing a different form of inflation than what most of us are discussing. You are describing currency inflation- similar to currency  manipulation and currency devaluation. Most of us are discussing price inflation. The two are similar but different. You can have price inflation without currency inflation, but you can't have currency inflation without price inflation. We've got a bit of both going on, but much of the price inflation is driven by shortages. Adding extra money to the system during a time of price inflation sure didn't help. Also, the extra money wasn't all external. Many people had extra money because they weren't driving to work or eating out, or going on vacation. So they bought goods instead. High gas prices are a big influence on price inflation due to higher transportation costs. Another example of price inflation without currency inflation.

Tells everyone their definition of inflation is wrong.  
 

Gets asked to provide a different one. 
 

says not my job. 

<insert tweet about playing chess with a pigeon here>
 

mental gymnastics.  A +++
 

Where will inflation stop?

When the balloon bursts.

The end.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

According to the Oxford Learners Dictionary, the definition of "inflation" (as a monetary term, as opposed to say "inflating a tire") is:

"A fall in the value of money and a general increase in prices; the rate at which this happens"

A larger pool of currency is a mechanism that can cause inflation, but is not inflation per se. Increased demand for goods/services relative to supply can also cause inflation regardless of any increase in the amount of currency in a market.

Increasing the amount of money in circulation might also not result in inflation if the amount of currency, population using that currency, and supply of goods/service being purchased by that population all grow at the same rate.

To be pedantic: a conversation does not actually require that we all use the "correct" definition of a term. It requires that all participants agree on and use the *same* definition of terms.

I haven't read the whole thread, but I have read a lot of it.

I'm uncomfortable pointing the finger for the current inflationary explosion at business, greed, and profiteering. It was a contributing factor, but flooding the economy with unprecedented levels of stimulus money was a major contributing factor and the resulting massive inflation was absolutely predictable.

Add the contribution of Mr Putin, and I find business to play a very minor role. 

What's the over/under on possible recession now? Last I saw with the commodities it seemed like we've avoided the worst, but I'll admit this is something I'm at best a novice on understanding.

This is how the Federal Reserve defines inflation. I'm inclined to go with their definition since they're the ones tasked with controlling it.

In reply to SV reX :

Are you suggesting our economy is complicated and affected by multiple factors?!?

Advan046 said:

1. Go pedal
2. Accelerator pedal
3. Throttle plate request signal generator pedal
4. Gas pedal
5. Loud pedal
6. Happy pedal

On a lighter note:

My father-in-law worked for General Motor's Fisher Body in Willow Springs, IL.  This plant punched out steel quarter panels, floor pans, roof sections among other sections of the car.

Seeing he likes to argue he's mentioned something in his current car on the floor board.  As I like to argue I always remind him they're floor pans like where he worked for 30 years. Still calls them floor boards.  
 

GIRTHQUAKE said:

What's the over/under on possible recession now? Last I saw with the commodities it seemed like we've avoided the worst, but I'll admit this is something I'm at best a novice on understanding.

I am pretty sure we have already reached the technical definition at this point, but it of course is just an arbitrary definition (two quarters of shrink?).  Certainly not a "typical" recession of course. All economic things are pretty much by definition wildly complicated.

I would have to agree though, in general, not a huge mystery.  Higher energy prices, disrupted supply chain, various other issues (e.g. bird flu, fertilizer), keeping interest rates low for way too long, blasting money into that situation,

It's a bit like aviation accident investigations.  In most, it's series of issues that happen to combine into a difficult to avoid situation once those are in place.  E.g. you don't know what you don't know. 

I just hope we all will realize now, economists, in general, like to say they know what they are doing, but they really don't (ESPECIALLY when any sort of politics gets involved)

GIRTHQUAKE said:

What's the over/under on possible recession now? Last I saw with the commodities it seemed like we've avoided the worst, but I'll admit this is something I'm at best a novice on understanding.

The definition was changed about a week before the Q2 GDP came out, but historically it is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. We passed that several months ago, but the new definition calls into play other economic factors like unemployment, etc etc. Nobody wants to say we're in a recession, but it's an elephant in the room.

If anyone is interested in a well laid out synopsis/guess around the current and future state of global economics (the US isn't in a vacuum here), this guy on Reddit has a long series of topics that's interesting to read. A little doom and gloom so grain of salt required, but he wrote a lot of it in early 2021 and much of it has played out true to form .

Link to reddit