Ottobon wrote:
So far as i can tell we are atleast 25-40 years off from that point (prototypes being tested is still a huge way off a nation wide fully automated system for automated driving, my opinion being a nation-wide system needs to be accepted for driverless cars to be a thing, as driverless cars themselves mixing with manually driven cars actually brings up lots of potential issues/disputes/conundrums)
You'll never see a flag day like that, the economics don't work. Nobody will buy an autonomous cars if they can't use it autonomously, so if it's ever going to happen it has to be an incremental thing, which means autonomous cars need to be able to interact with human-driven cars.
What you'll see (in fact, what we've already seen) is a gradual increase in the autonomy of cars. Basic cruise control was the first step, now we have adaptive CC systems that can measure the distance to the car in front of you and brake to not hit it. I've talked to someone who handles stop-and-go freeway traffic by setting his adaptive cruise control to 60 and letting the computer handle all of the gas/braking for him, he's just turning the wheel. I think it's a Benz of some kind, but not sure which. There are also lane departure warnings today, some of which will even turn the wheel to move you back towards the center of the lane if you start driving towards the edge.
Yes, we're still a long way of from a truly autonomous vehicle that can operate anywhere, what you're seeing today is automation that can handle the more narrowly-defined environments that have fewer oddball situations in them. Freeways don't often feature kids chasing after balls in the street, for example. Remember that the car doesn't have to be perfect to be acceptable, it just has to be better than the average driver.
The real challenge isn't going to be the tech, it's going to be sorting out the legalities. If my autonomous car and your autonomous car get into a wreck, whose fault is it? Mine? Yours? Google's? What if an autonomous car injures or kills someone? If I'm drunk can I have my autonomous car drive me home without worrying about a DUI?
To me the really cool parts of an autonomous vehicle aren't so much the idea that it can drive me around (although for dealing with commute traffic that would be great), it's that it can drive itself around without me in it. Long-term parking at the airport? Who needs it, I can send the car home to park itself in my driveway. Nowhere to park in the city? The car can "orbit" for a while, find itself a street parking spot, then come pick me up when I call it. Pizza delivery? Nah, I'll just send my car to go pick it up. Put a special lock on the trunk so that the pizza place can open it, but not the doors.
Back on the original topic, I can see why auto manufacturers really don't want you messing with the programming in things like the ABS and stability control systems. Getting software to do the right thing all the time is hard, and there's no way an aftermarket chip company is going to have the quality control resources of an OEM. Retuning the ABS system for better racetrack performance is likely to introduce bugs.