End of the line for combustion engines?

In recent years, car makers have invested countless millions in their engine programs due to the horsepower wars and ever-increasing emissions/efficiency targets. But now it looks like we may have reached the end of the line for combustion engines.

Autoline is reporting that in light of global trends in vehicle electrification, "After 2021, not a single automaker has plans to develop new piston engines. They will continue to develop the engines they have, but will not design all new ones."

https://youtu.be/_z5zVITcnwE?t=4m43s

It finally makes sense to me why so many automakers are jumping ship from traditional racing series and getting into Formula E. Corporate R&D timelines stretch years into the future--these companies are already preparing to transition away from ICE vehicles. It's a bittersweet day for racing fans and car enthusiasts.

That is what they are saying this week. We'll see as it gets closer to 2021 and electrification still isn't where it needs to be. Think it is more of a nudge to work at and focus on electrification more to advance electrification though.

I mean when I saw who was going to Formula E you can tell but we are a long way off from manufacturers completely moving away mainly because the infrastructure is not there to support everyone driving electric cars

The amount I've been reading/hearing about stuff like the Formula E move has me wondering whether the manufacturers just got a memo I'd like to get a look at, or something like that. Or trying the horse and cart the other way around, if all the manufacturers start heading full-stampede for electric, how much more quickly will the issues get sorted? That is, if each manufacturer is offering a token electric, folks trying to roll out infrastructure are rolling the dice on adoption matching pace with installations. If the mfrs get aligned, that speeds things way up, but just as importantly or more so, allows for planning a rollout and being able to rely on adoption, because that's what's on the showroom floor.

There really isn't a whole lot more to find from IC engines.  They are pretty close to the most efficient way to transform a gallon of petroleum into movement, so what we have now is good enough.

Until society stops needing to have people go places and do things, and we have a reactor in every back yard, electrics will be supplemental.

Hybrids, maybe.

Is that really all that surprising, or just anomalous data? (Serious question)

Based on it's predecessor, GM will probably be using the LS into the 2040's anyway. (Analogous hypothesis)

When I read 2021 my mind tells me that is like 50 years into the future and my first thought is I'll be dead by then. Then I realize it's only a little over three years away and I'm shocked for a brief second before I remember I'm already dead inside so it doesn't really matter. I'll miss the sounds.

I look at it this way, the more electric vehicles on the road, the more gas for us. Gas won't last forever, but the less we use, the longer it will last.

Crackers said:

Is that really all that surprising, or just anomalous data? (Serious question)

Based on it's predecessor, GM will probably be using the LS into the 2040's anyway. (Analogous hypothesis)

Except the "LS" architecture has already been replaced and is being phased out, if not phased out already.

Streetwiseguy said:

 electrics will be supplemental.

 

I don't see it that way. Batteries are getting lighter, smaller, and more energy dense. Electrics are extremely efficent, it's just a matter if finding a way to get energy into the cells during a "refill" quickly enough. The Tesla already has enough of a range for most people as it is. Except for my once every three or months trips down south to go sailing on the chesapeake, I rarely go more than 50 miles, heck if I am honest, I really do not go further than 25 miles a day

Except when they tried to bring a Tesla to Lightning Lap it went into oh E36 M3 heat limp mode within a single lap

so you are going to judge all electrics on what one car did at a venue that is admittedly hard on cars? No doubt a modded tesla with better cooling would have done better than many cars out there.

In reply to Jaynen :

And the lightning lap has what to do with what a commuter car is called in to do? 

I'm a little skeptical this is the case, how does Autoline know this definitively?  2021 is three model years away.  One factor might be that a lot of manufacturers have recently introduced new direct injection turbo engines, so perhaps some design cycles were pushed forward to meet the newer US fuel economy standards and now may not need to go further.  There are still a lot of companies out there with limited hybrid options.  Those tend to be longer stroke atkins capable designs.  There are still things that can be done, look at the Mazda Skyactive-X engine.  No one has plans to try to copy it?  No company selling in an emerging market plans to introduce a new design?

Snrub said:

 No company selling in an emerging market plans to introduce a new design?

Why would they? That's like saying they need to start with coal fired steam engines first before they can use IC engines. If you are starting from scratch, you can build up the whole infastructure from scratch and avoid all the starts and stops the already developed world has gone through. Learn from their mistakes and jump from nothing to clean energy

It is interesting for sure, but I don't see a full distribution network yet for people who do not have their own parking structures. Millions of cars parked on streets in suburbs and cities. Once they solve that distribution model to the urban cars then it is possible in first world countries. The rest of the world still won't have the infrastructure unless there is a new leap in technology (always possible) 

A few years ago dirt bike manufacturers ( the big three anyway) stopped making two strokes. The trend toward earth loving technology meant that continued investment seemed pointless. But guess what. They are back. Consumers demanded it and a lot of buyers went to the smaller companies who started selling a ton of two strokes. Now Yamaha has started dipping a toe in again to see about regaining some market share and I suspect the other Japanese are not far behind. I would not count the old internal combustion engine out either.

In any case at some point the practical will win over the hysteria and manufacturers will accept that the incredible infrastructure we have in place, and the damn near emissions free new engine technology is not worth tossing in favour of revamping the whole transportation industry. I look at a busy gas station. Cars lined up for a pump and in and out in five minutes with a full tank. Now flip them all over to electrics that have less range and take exponentially longer to refuel. We would need 10 times as many charging stations. And it's not like everyone will be investing in supercharger to have installed at the curb in front of their condo. If a 200 unit apartment building had a Tesla size (100kwh) ev vehicle per unit in the underground parking, that would be around 75kwh(75%charge once per day) x 200 = 15,000 kwh in power for that building alone. Or course that power will need to be almost instantaneous because everyone wants to charge at night because they all work in the day and I don't expect employers will be investing in free charging stations once the thrill of saving the planet wears off......

By the way, I love how earth loving businesses and also many public institutions offer free ev charging stations right by the front door. Because if you love the earth enough to buy an ev you not only drive for free, but you get a parking spot that is way more special than the people who have to use the disabled parking, the best stall of which is usually the one that gets the charging station....

I know I am shopping hard for a Volt.  I have a 45min 9.3 mile drive back home from the office.  The cloud plate and HOV access it provides will cut me down to 25.  I know it is off topic, but I confess to soon being a convert.

On topic, as I understand it, the largest issue with having that volume of cars is the sourcing of some of the raw materials for the batteries.  Possibly, recycling of current and soon produced batteries will eventually help lesson the need, but I see it as still a long way off.

The only other way I see electric cars pushing in sooner would be for the continual raising of gas prices and cars in general.  We already see the trend in the extended lifecycle of cars as they become more expensive and reliable.  

I don't know how much of the cost of current electric cars is due to the low volume specialty ness of it vs what the cost would be is a car like the volt was produced on the same scale as a Corolla.  The tipping point to where electric cars become less expensive may be closer than we know as outsiders.  

Once the price is lower, cars last longer, with less parts to service and wear out, the turn may become a much more aggressive curve in short order.  I know in my little part of the world living in Tempe and working downtown Scottsdale, I see quite a bit of electric cars and no less than 10, with some days a no baloney 25, self driving cars.  The future is being worked on, and worked on hard.  

Im not too worried but then again I love old cars and as long as they stay legal, I dont care if normal people drive electrics. 

Knurled said:

Crackers said:

Is that really all that surprising, or just anomalous data? (Serious question)

Based on it's predecessor, GM will probably be using the LS into the 2040's anyway. (Analogous hypothesis)

Except the "LS" architecture has already been replaced and is being phased out, if not phased out already.

That's exactly my point. Is it an inaccurate conclusion based on incomplete evidence? Does the fact no one has plans really mean no one will? 

IOW I think the sky is falling. 

former520 said:

I know I am shopping hard for a Volt.  I have a 45min 9.3 mile drive back home from the office.  The cloud plate and HOV access it provides will cut me down to 25.  I know it is off topic, but I confess to soon being a convert.

On topic, as I understand it, the largest issue with having that volume of cars is the sourcing of some of the raw materials for the batteries.  Possibly, recycling of current and soon produced batteries will eventually help lesson the need, but I see it as still a long way off.

The only other way I see electric cars pushing in sooner would be for the continual raising of gas prices and cars in general.  We already see the trend in the extended lifecycle of cars as they become more expensive and reliable.  

I don't know how much of the cost of current electric cars is due to the low volume specialty ness of it vs what the cost would be is a car like the volt was produced on the same scale as a Corolla.  The tipping point to where electric cars become less expensive may be closer than we know as outsiders.  

Once the price is lower, cars last longer, with less parts to service and wear out, the turn may become a much more aggressive curve in short order.  I know in my little part of the world living in Tempe and working downtown Scottsdale, I see quite a bit of electric cars and no less than 10, with some days a no baloney 25, self driving cars.  The future is being worked on, and worked on hard.  

Jeez man, 45 minutes for under 10 miles? That sounds brutal. I'd be surprised if riding a bike on nice days didn't cut that time in half or better. I wonder what percentage of the population has a commute like that? I drive 25 miles each way, and it takes me 25-30 minutes depending on a couple of stop lights.

I agree with everything else you said. Fossil fuels are a finite resource, but battery materials are as well. Perhaps even more so.

Your point about electric vehicles likely lasting longer and having fewer mechanical issues is a big reason why several manufacturers are beginning to dabble in subscription style services rather than a traditional ownership model. They understand that they'll probably sell fewer vehicles, so they're hedging their bets. Subscription style plans would keep revenues strong and should in theory improve profits. Paying a bunch of money for access to a vehicle that you don't even own bothers me more than whether the car I drive goes vroom vroom or not.

Streetwiseguy said:

There really isn't a whole lot more to find from IC engines.  They are pretty close to the most efficient way to transform a gallon of petroleum into movement, so what we have now is good enough.

Until society stops needing to have people go places and do things, and we have a reactor in every back yard, electrics will be supplemental.

Hybrids, maybe.

I don't agree.  Especially thanks to Toyota's new I4 engine, there's still room for improvement.  

And I think anyone that is ending new engine programs starting in 2021 is pretty short sighted.  Even if there's a major revoultion in EV's, they are still going to take a lot of time to fully take over the market.  I'm sure more and more hybrids will be coming out, too- which have an ICE in them.

Remember, anything that makes EVs better make hybrids equaly better- if you can really fast charge a battery with 100kW, then every time you slow down, that will be totally recovered- which will very much increase the effectiveness of hybrids.

And if you look at what is going on in F1, the improvements are really impressive.  So if someone can solve the lean exhaust treatment problem- that opens up a lot more capability.  

That, and I've have yet to really see a realistic path to EVs across the board.

dculberson said:

In reply to Jaynen :

And the lightning lap has what to do with what a commuter car is called in to do? 

Sorry that was not meant to be global condemnation quite the opposite just pointing out that one size won't fit all and so I would not expect to see EV's completely taking over anytime soon

All-electric cars will not be a viable mainstream reality until we pull our collective heads out of our butts, shoot all the NIMBYs, and start building lots of modern, up-to-date nuclear generators. 

I agree IC will continue to have their place.  EV's can work for some, but not others. There are no wrong or right answers because the questions aren't always the same.  

I am optimistic about EV's. The idea of not having to go to a gas station on a regular basis is appealing. But I have a garage and plenty of electrical capacity in my house to add a charger. 220V chargers are now cheap and easy (for me) to install. Others may not have these conditions. What holds me back is there currently isn't an EV that meets my needs and budget.  I'm interested in seeing what the new VW "Microbus" EV looks like.  

Regardless, I will still have my collection of classic cars, most of which are British and will therefore provide all of the gas smells one could ever want.