End of the line for combustion engines?

Governments currently pursuing proposals to ban ICE vehicles:

...The shaded areas look small but represent more than 3.2 billion people.

Meanwhile...

For some reason, the link generator thing isn’t working for me right now, so you’ll have to copy and paste this.

http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/tesla-fired-hundreds-employees-last-week-report-says

Just like the horse and steam engine before it, ICs time is coming to an end.  As battery tech is the big hold up and not the motors (the drivetrain in a model S is half that of a vehicle with 1/3 the power, the fuel storage is the problem.)  

Ev's solve alot of packaging and safety issues and as electrical storage comes along, we will see range up and costs drop.

As far as electrical infrastructure I am not worried about the "filling" stations.  Those can go up pretty quick.  As Duke and Alfa's tiff showed it is how to generate the power.  Between my involvement in energy policy in Louisiana and Virginia, I can tell you the Electric companies are NOT your friend on this.  They are doing everything they can to maintain the current central generation and distribution business model.  Fighting community power generation and what not.  Here in Virginia, there are a few very interesting laws Dominion has paid for that renders most home solar almost to the point of no payback.  Their business model hinges on being able to charge the state, feds and customers for building more and larger power plants.

I am not one against nuclear energy.  Modern nuclear plants are really safe.  France has proven that.  With fusion power coming along nicely, I would wait for that.  All that being said, the central generation and distribution model has an economy of scale issue in that 8-15% of the power generated is lost in the transmission lines (and that is an estimate from Schneider Electric).  Local small power generation would fix that.

It doesn't matter if you are for coal, nuclear,  natural gas, solar, wind, two teenagers in the back of on their mom's Tahoe or a 4 year old free basing sugar with a red bull chaser, the centralized energy generation model has got to go.  It is expensive, inefficient and pushes policies away from what is best for the people and what is best for the energy companies bottom lines.

You knock that out of the way and open up patents on energy storage (prevent them from being used to block tech, which can be done) and we have some solutions.

Ian F said:

In reply to RossD :

The difference is grid production systems are typically far more efficient at producing KW(HP) for a given amount of fuel burned than vehicle engines.

Once you take into account transmission losses, and charging losses for en EV, then its a much smaller difference.

Looking at the graphics from Fuel economy.gov and the web:

• Gas efficiency is 18-25% to the wheels
• EV is 82% to the wheels (includes 17% regeneration)
• Powerplant efficiency is roughly 35% for coal or oil fired, less for gas fire turbines
• Transmission losses for electricity range for 8-15%

So some simple math:

(35% PP efficiency - (35%*8% transmission losses)) * 82% vehicle efficiency = 28.6% of the fuel energy gets to the wheels.

28.6% is only 3.6% better than a gas engine if a fossil fuel plant and best case numbers are used for both. Change to Hydroelectric and the EV is much better, but fossil fuel still a large contributor to the power grid.

Is 3.6% better efficiency enough to justify the cost? Is there a measurable environmental improvement?

I would guess and urban environment sees a reduction in smog as EV become more prevalent, but the area local to the powerplant sees a negative impact to their environment due to the need to produce more electricity to charge the EVs.

bearmtnmartin said:

A few years ago dirt bike manufacturers ( the big three anyway) stopped making two strokes. The trend toward earth loving technology meant that continued investment seemed pointless. But guess what. They are back. Consumers demanded it and a lot of buyers went to the smaller companies who started selling a ton of two strokes. Now Yamaha has started dipping a toe in again to see about regaining some market share and I suspect the other Japanese are not far behind. I would not count the old internal combustion engine out either.

In any case at some point the practical will win over the hysteria and manufacturers will accept that the incredible infrastructure we have in place, and the damn near emissions free new engine technology is not worth tossing in favour of revamping the whole transportation industry. I look at a busy gas station. Cars lined up for a pump and in and out in five minutes with a full tank. Now flip them all over to electrics that have less range and take exponentially longer to refuel. We would need 10 times as many charging stations. And it's not like everyone will be investing in supercharger to have installed at the curb in front of their condo. If a 200 unit apartment building had a Tesla size (100kwh) ev vehicle per unit in the underground parking, that would be around 75kwh(75%charge once per day) x 200 = 15,000 kwh in power for that building alone. Or course that power will need to be almost instantaneous because everyone wants to charge at night because they all work in the day and I don't expect employers will be investing in free charging stations once the thrill of saving the planet wears off......

By the way, I love how earth loving businesses and also many public institutions offer free ev charging stations right by the front door. Because if you love the earth enough to buy an ev you not only drive for free, but you get a parking spot that is way more special than the people who have to use the disabled parking, the best stall of which is usually the one that gets the charging station....

I agree with your observations, just not sure I agree with your conclusions. 

You are ruling out ingenuity.  You are absolutely correct we would need 10 times as many fueling stations if we fueled like we currently do.

But what if we fueled differently?  For example, what if a good capitalist recognized the fueling opportunity, and started building mobile charging stations?  Picture a truck based rig with Gigafactory style batteries and a generator.  A fast charger, and multiple charging outlets.  "Fuel" could be ordered via an app like Uber, and the fuel would come to you wherever you are parked.  Dispatch software already exists to optimize the routes.   Fuel could be billed based on volume, so a basic recharge of a single vehicle would be expensive, but if you get 10 of your coworkers to sign up, fuel is discounted.  Special deep discount perks for corporate accounts, etc.

Why do vehicles have to go to centralized locations to be fueled?  (Just think of the cost savings to a business if they didn't have to buy the real estate on prime corners to build fueling stations).

There will be many, many creative solutions.

iceracer said:

Ah, how many times in my life have I heard this.

 

When they build an electric car that will tavel over 400 miles non stop and then recharge in less than a minute I would consider one.      A hybrid might work but I am still leery of battery life.

Have you ever timed refilling your car with gas? I bet you it takes more than a minute!

Once this is available we won't have these issuers:

In reply to jstand :

Short of Mr. Fusion...I'd just be happy with production scalable algae that poops gasoline.

Driven5 said:

In reply to jstand :

Short of Mr. Fusion...I'd just be happy with production scalable algae that poops gasoline.

And here we have yet another thread that's gone to E36M3!

Duke said:

All-electric cars will not be a viable mainstream reality until we pull our collective heads out of our butts, shoot all the NIMBYs, and start building lots of modern, up-to-date nuclear generators. 

And a power grid to support that kind of load.

I think this shift will bring with it the ability  to consider grid loads in an entirely different manner. We won't have to be thinking about "peak loads", we will be thinking about "balanced loads", which will enable the entire grid to function more efficiently. 

This load will primarily be about recharging batteries, not supplying and using on-demand.  That should mean power producers can meter the load for battery charging to be primarily accomplished during off-peak hours. 

In reply to dculberson :

I'll time it the next time I fill up.

Actually the "one minute" was just a swag.

As always, the market place will determine what sells.    Electric cars are not exactly rolling off the dealer lots.   Some have been discontinued.   

For those places that ban the sales of ICE vehicles, I see a new Cuba all over again.

In reply to dculberson :

Most pumps flow at 10gal/min.

ultraclyde said:

"on a long enough timeline, everyone's survival rate drops to zero." - Tyler Durden

Tyler didn't say that, "Jack" did.

(Technically)

Have I missed something since the last time we had this discussion? Is there a new battery that is in the same league as a gas tank as far storage capacity, recharge time, durability, and cost? Did they announce that the next gen F150 is only available as an EV? 

I think that an easily exchanged battery pack will solve the range questions.  “Topping up” means exchanging an empty battery for a full one.  Pay for the kWh used.

FlightService is correct on many of his points. Centralized Energy production needs to go. The mini-turbine power plants shown in an early thread prove that. Combine those for when weather is not good enough for "green" production and enough solar, wind, and mini-hydraulic and things start to look a LOT rosier for electrics.

Combine that with losing centralized fueling stations and Electrics look even better. Around here I know of three Tesla Charging stations. If you could slow charge at home and work and have fast chargers at commercial and  highway areas and things look even better. Nobody wants a gas station next to their house or in their neighborhood, but a nice shiny and clean quick charging spot in the park does not get the NIMBYs in a twist.

The big player in all this is China. When China working to ban the ICE, it's days are indeed numbered. No longer does the US market dictate what the rest of the world does, we are being surpassed and it is not necessarily a bad thing in this respect.

jstand said:

Ian F said:

In reply to RossD :

The difference is grid production systems are typically far more efficient at producing KW(HP) for a given amount of fuel burned than vehicle engines.

Once you take into account transmission losses, and charging losses for en EV, then its a much smaller difference.

Looking at the graphics from Fuel economy.gov and the web:

• Gas efficiency is 18-25% to the wheels
• EV is 82% to the wheels (includes 17% regeneration)
• Powerplant efficiency is roughly 35% for coal or oil fired, less for gas fire turbines
• Transmission losses for electricity range for 8-15%

So some simple math:

(35% PP efficiency - (35%*8% transmission losses)) * 82% vehicle efficiency = 28.6% of the fuel energy gets to the wheels.

28.6% is only 3.6% better than a gas engine if a fossil fuel plant and best case numbers are used for both. Change to Hydroelectric and the EV is much better, but fossil fuel still a large contributor to the power grid.

Is 3.6% better efficiency enough to justify the cost? Is there a measurable environmental improvement?

I would guess and urban environment sees a reduction in smog as EV become more prevalent, but the area local to the powerplant sees a negative impact to their environment due to the need to produce more electricity to charge the EVs.

Why is wind resistance in the ICE engine shown as 9 to 12% and 36% in the Electric?

In reply to mad_machine :

If I read that right, it's the distribution of the power to the wheels, and that breakdown relative to the electric input.  So relative to the gallon of gas going into the engine, wind resistance accounts for 9% of the losses, relative to the kW-hr going into the EV- it accounts for 36% of the losses.  It's not that the actual losses are different in real numbers, but the percentage of the input energy to the car goes that way.

Basically, it's an illustration that Electric Powertrains are about 80-90% efficient whereas gas powertrains are 20-25% efficient in that model.  Not that drag is higher on the EV.

Not happening anytime soon. 

Yawn.

Don't forget the ICE efficiency tends to go down under very light loads, while that isn't the case for electric drivetrains.  Take 2 cars (one with each powertrain), but otherwise identical.  Now we swap to lower rolling resistance tires, do some aero mods, etc.  Run both cars at a steady 65 mph and we discover that the total power required to hold that speed has gone down by 30% on both cars (due to less rolling and wind resistance).  However, we notice that the EV is using almost 30% less power, but the ICE car is only burning 18% less fuel.  

That same effect is how you sometimes end up with a short geared truck that seems to get the same (awful) mpg across a disturbingly wide range of conditions.  It's because when just driving it gently with nothing in the bed you're in such a bad spot on the engine's BSFC map that adding load increases efficiency enough that you can do significantly more work with barely any extra fuel.  

bearmtnmartin said:

By the way, I love how earth loving businesses and also many public institutions offer free ev charging stations right by the front door. Because if you love the earth enough to buy an ev you not only drive for free, but you get a parking spot that is way more special than the people who have to use the disabled parking, the best stall of which is usually the one that gets the charging station...

If the building project is LEED (Leadership in Energy Efficient Design) Certified at some level, they get a cheap and easy point for having an EV charging station, and for giving EVs / hybrids priority parking.  It takes anywhere from 65-100 points to get a project certified, and some of those points are damn hard to come by, so you jump on the proverbial low-hanging fruit first.

In reply to alfadriver :

That is my usual fill up +-.

In reply to BrokenYugo :

power grids already exists. Energy demand is at a minimum later in the evening and early morning when most of us are home and asleep. The timer goes off and your Volt/ Tesla/ whatever is charged ready for tomorrow. 

Same with buses and trucks.  

Further energy reduction will occur when cars aren't owned. But ordered when and where needed.  

Sitting quietly by the curb freshly charged waiting for someone in the area to hit the order car button. 

Hence driverless cars on demand.  

Race cars will be kept at race tracks  just like horses are kept at stables.