End of the line for combustion engines?

Joe Gearin said:

The0retical said:

I said it last time and I'll say it again here. We're a $5 per gallon gas (or a $2.50 increase by todays prices) crisis away from wide spread adoption of EVs and electric cars. Chevy has 35k Bolts just sitting out there right now along with an idled facility and almost every manufacturer has a 40+ mpg plugin hybrid of some sort.

A civil war in Iraq, as now appears to be fomenting, or the collapse of Venezuela, also a real possibility, and we're there since the strategic oil reserves can only go for so long.

This---- most of the masses make transportation decisions based on cost.  If gasoline remains cheap, or gets cheaper. (which it may) Electrics will remain a novelty.   If gasoline prices spike, or rise for the long-term, there will be vastly increased demand.  Governments may be making these rules now, to spur on electric development, but if the time comes for implementation, and electrics are still cost prohibitive vs. ICE cars, the rules will change.  If the world economy  does well, and folks have $$ to spend, (or govt. subsidies make them cost competitive) they will do well.   

When times are tough,  people vote with their wallets.  The least expensive, most rational (financial) solution will prevail.   When the economy is booming, regular folks are much more careless with their $$ and spend more to satisfy their egos----- ie the big SUV boom of the 90s.   

No one quite knows where we are headed.  

Cost isn't the only major factor that can work in favor of EV adoption though, there's also CO2 output, and the number of world leaders who would argue that the problems associated with increased CO2 levels are actually caused by Illuminati scientists with a weather machine is generally somewhere between 0 and 1. That will provide some incentive to switch away from fossil fuels other than their cost. The only thing that might save ICE cars there is a carbon-neutral drop-in gasoline substitute, which could happen, but then they'd still have EVs to compete with on ease of maintenance, performance, and NVH, so it wouldn't slam the brakes on EV adoption.

Here in Georgia the combination of a $7,500 Federal incentive and a $5,000 state tax rebate lead to Atlanta being the top EV sales market in the country. Then the state rebate was cancelled and new EV sales collapsed.  In other words, buyers were much more heavily influenced by the economics of "what's my monthly payment" than by the limited range or long charging times of the Leafs they were buying in droves.

The same net effect can be achieved by financial penalties instead of incentives.  Governments deciding to phase out ICEs can impose taxes and fines to sway buyers toward PEVs instead.  This is already well underway in parts of Europe where high taxes are applied to fuel and vehicles are taxed based on their CO2 emissions.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

I'd argue, despite the majority of the populaces "correct" response to rising CO2 levels, that unless the general populace (and business) get hit where it hurts they won't get off the dime. With the exception of early adopters that's always the wallet. That's just human nature. You see it all the time with MMI's (why save buttons look like a floppy disk still) and if you've ever tried to manage the implementation of a major project. 80% of the reason why projects fail isn't technical, it's because most company cultures doesn't like relearning how to do their job even if the differences are slight. If it was any other way the fields of Human Factors, Project Management, and Business Process Development wouldn't be multi billion dollar industries.

I saw a poll talking about the "awareness that electric cars are now available" stating that only something like 30% of the populace knew that they were an option. I think the methodology was a bit flawed because it seems like you can't go 10 minutes without someone in the media mentioning Tesla. I highly doubt this is the case in the day and age, however my viewpoint is skewed from being involved in high tech as well as an automotive enthusiast.

Carbon-Neutral gas substitutes would be amazing, but unless you're talking about autocratic rulers mandating this (such as the case of Brazil), it's a pipe dream. There are simply too many competing interests and too much money at stake. For evidence of that check out the US Military's synthetic fuel project or anything involving corn ethanol vs rapeseed, sugar, or woodchips. A more significant example includes a Boeing paper on algae based fuels that's now 14 years old. It basically said it was possible to produce enough fuel for the worlds airlines with a pond surface area the size of Maryland. You'd think with advances in vertical farms and hydroponics tech in that time this would have made this a reality but nope, cheap fuel turns a profit now. Future proof investments like that involve both building infrastructure and lobbying to defeat or gain exception to the mandatory blend rules, distribution contracts, and franchise contracts. Then there's a period of amortization and we can't have that when dividends can be higher today.

EV's are a completely different methodology for powering transportation which is why they're able to gain ground the way that they have. They've basically shown that it's easier to skirt old institutions than it is to attempt to reform them.

In reply to The0retical : great point!  Even within my own family I'm the outsider to even talk about EVs 

there is so much wrong data out there or wrong opinions floating around that I question just how far the conversions will go.  

Anytime the subject comes up  initial cost is the prime objection. That and the I'm not going to be first!!  

Let them experiment on someone else!   

When I point out how old EVs actually are and the net ownership costs involved  30 seconds into the conversation the eyes glaze over and I've lost everyone

In reply to iceracer : maybe for rural owners who travel by car / truck a lot.   But even some of those limit trips to mostly under 200 miles per day.  Especially the older ones.

Urban drivers who do not use their car outside of a particular city will likely be able to get by with the 200 mile per day range the better EVs have.  

Sure traveling sales people will need 300 miles per day range (that's over 75,000 miles per year)  there will still be hybrids sold   But I would be surprised if that's 2% of the population.  (I spent 40 years of my working life doing just that) 

remember the average miles per year traveled is around 12,000.  That's a thousand a month or less than 250 a week  

Joe Gearin said:

The0retical said:

I said it last time and I'll say it again here. We're a $5 per gallon gas (or a $2.50 increase by todays prices) crisis away from wide spread adoption of EVs and electric cars. Chevy has 35k Bolts just sitting out there right now along with an idled facility and almost every manufacturer has a 40+ mpg plugin hybrid of some sort.

A civil war in Iraq, as now appears to be fomenting, or the collapse of Venezuela, also a real possibility, and we're there since the strategic oil reserves can only go for so long.

This---- most of the masses make transportation decisions based on cost.  If gasoline remains cheap, or gets cheaper. (which it may) Electrics will remain a novelty.   If gasoline prices spike, or rise for the long-term, there will be vastly increased demand.  Governments may be making these rules now, to spur on electric development, but if the time comes for implementation, and electrics are still cost prohibitive vs. ICE cars, the rules will change.  If the world economy  does well, and folks have $$ to spend, (or govt. subsidies make them cost competitive) they will do well.   

When times are tough,  people vote with their wallets.  The least expensive, most rational (financial) solution will prevail.   When the economy is booming, regular folks are much more careless with their $$ and spend more to satisfy their egos----- ie the big SUV boom of the 90s.   

No one quite knows where we are headed.  

The cost issue is simple to deal with. Deduct tax incentives , rebates , and discounts.  

Now do an gas V electric cost calculation using actual prices and with very few exceptions the actual costs with be similar.  To "sell" EV you simply point out the volatility of gasoline versus electricity.  Then point out how reliable quality electric appliances are ( my toaster has been making toast through 10 new cars and not once been to the dealer).  

Honestly, the major "sell" to me is that last point.  That is, an EV ought to be about as reliable as a pop-up toaster.  For that reason alone I would consider an EV over a hybrid.  No maintenance at all related to an ICE drivetrain.  

I average about 90 miles per day in my daily travels.  That's too much of a stretch for the original Leaf, but the new Leaf or the Bolt should cover it.  Or a Model S....if they ever make it past vaporware.  

What about battery maintenance costs? They do require replacement at some point and it ain't cheap. Or a relay in the system. Those ain't cheap either. Might as well buy a new car at that point.

volvoclearinghouse said:

Honestly, the major "sell" to me is that last point.  That is, an EV ought to be about as reliable as a pop-up toaster.  For that reason alone I would consider an EV over a hybrid.  No maintenance at all related to an ICE drivetrain.  

I wish it was that simple, but the electronics in EVs are more like a smartphone/computer than a toaster.  When components do fail it can be very expensive. 

We have three EVs in my family. The onboard charging unit failed on my car; total replacement cost would have been near $5,000 if not covered under warranty. One of the Leafs would not drive and the cascade of fault codes was diagnosed as a bad battery pack by dealer technicians; the car is out of warranty and we were quoted about $7,000 to fix. Fortunately my Dad is a master electrician and his own troubleshooting found that a sensor failure and some electrical contact corrosion were the real culprits. Typical owners would not be so lucky.

In reply to wlkelley3 : a while back I checked on how often batteries were replaced.  I cal both GM and Ford since I had contacts there.  At this point Hybrids had over a ten year market  

the Ford zone answered me with 17 but didn't have a breakout between accident damage and wear

GM zone had 3 replaced, none due to failure simply the owners wanted to replace them and 9 due to accidents  

Nobody ever could tell me how many EVs had been sold or what percentage had needed replacement.  

Ive driven 10 year old Hybrids and I don't think they ran as long as new ones do but I don't know  how much is technology and how much is reduction in       Capability 

I work with a guy who is an outlier -- he has put 250K miles on his early Honda Insight hybrid.  The car is on it's third battery pack, two of which he has paid for out of pocket. Makes no sense financially, but he loves the car.

wlkelley3 said:

What about battery maintenance costs? They do require replacement at some point and it ain't cheap. Or a relay in the system. Those ain't cheap either. Might as well buy a new car at that point.

Well for reference, a Leaf battery pack costs $5.5k new right now. The big relays don't fail often and can be found in a junkyard but they're $100~$300 new depending on which one it is you're looking for. They go for around $50 used.

The trick is to drive the car until just a few miles before the battery pack fails, and then sell it.  

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Or just before the warranty runs out.

I like EV's. I like that they have the potential to be simple, cheap transportation while cutting down on the use of oil and gas and maybe balancing industrial waste with environmental awareness a little better than it is now. And for the record, the fastest vehicle I've driven BY FAR is a Tesla Model S P90D. It's brain-scrambling fast!

BUT...

For me, owning an EV isn't ideal. There are many reasons for that.*

-I have a long commute (70-80mi round trip, depending on route) and we don't have chargers at work, even though the CEO and another person in upper management both drive Tesla Model S's (they each live just a few miles from work). With what's out there now, range may be an issue. We don't have chargers at work, and outfitting the lot for a charger in each space would adversely affect our bottom line, I'm sure. 

-I live in the Northeast. Winter and storms can easily knock out the grid, and with the way weather has been trending, storms are getting more powerful and widespread every year. How am I going to charge my dead car if I need to get somewhere in an emergency? Would you have to buy a ton of backup batteries or something?

-Also, we have two daily drivers, so that means two charging stations will need to be installed at home. I can't imagine how much that's going to cost out of pocket. 

-I like driving. I like the connection between man and machine, even on my daily driver. Even though that Tesla I drove was cool (trust me, it was VERY cool), it felt somewhat sterile and disconnected. It's like you are suggesting to the car what you want it to do and it does it with variable input ranging from "you're the captain of this ship" to "I'm an autonomous pod that will get you there and back". One can argue that all the assists that come in modern cars have the same effect, and you'd be right, but it feels even more pronounced in the full-electric cars. 

-The fun ones are EXPENSIVE. The P90D I drove was well over $100k. Where are the fun, affordable ones? 

That said, a hybrid would be the way to go for me if I was forced to abandon a full ICE car. Range is a lot better, and you get the benefit of cutting down on gasoline usage and cheaper operating costs. 

*All of this is relative and based on what we know RIGHT NOW. This could all change. 10-15 years from now, we could have battery packs the size of a cell phone that have 1000mi range and charge in 5 minutes. Who knows! 

I can answer some of these:

Tony Sestito said:

-I live in the Northeast. Winter and storms can easily knock out the grid, and with the way weather has been trending, storms are getting more powerful and widespread every year. How am I going to charge my dead car if I need to get somewhere in an emergency? Would you have to buy a ton of backup batteries or something?

You'll either have to make sure the car's juiced up before the storm hits or save the power externally (with a big backup battery like a Tesla Powerwall unit). Same as a gas car, except that for now you'll get less range out of the car from a "full tank." Upside: You're less likely to have to get into a long lineup at a gas station.

Tony Sestito said:

-Also, we have two daily drivers, so that means two charging stations will need to be installed at home. I can't imagine how much that's going to cost out of pocket. 

Exactly the same as installing two 220v sockets for something like a washing machine.

Tony Sestito said:

-I like driving. I like the connection between man and machine, even on my daily driver. Even though that Tesla I drove was cool (trust me, it was VERY cool), it felt somewhat sterile and disconnected. It's like you are suggesting to the car what you want it to do and it does it with variable input ranging from "you're the captain of this ship" to "I'm an autonomous pod that will get you there and back". One can argue that all the assists that come in modern cars have the same effect, and you'd be right, but it feels even more pronounced in the full-electric cars. 

That's not an EV problem, that's a modern car problem or perhaps more specifically, a Tesla problem. I know a guy with an electric Westfield and there is nothing sterile, disconnected, civilized, or even sane about it.

Tony Sestito said:

-The fun ones are EXPENSIVE. The P90D I drove was well over $100k. Where are the fun, affordable ones?

The Model 3 is about $30k and still accelerates very quickly. I think you'll see the cheap EVs in this price bracket becoming more sporty over the next couple of years.

In reply to GameboyRMH : I can't believe that GM and Ford are that much more reliable than Nissan 

when I was seriously looking at  Chevy Volt I couldn't find anyone who'd had a bad experience with one.  

This magazine gave a good report on what they were like and I suspect they used it a lot harder than average  

In reply to Tony Sestito :

If you live in a house with natural gas, a generator can take care of charging when the power grid goes down.

Level 2 chargers are reasonably priced. Check them out on Amazon. Ease/expense of installation will depend on your house layout and electrical panel capacity, but it's basically the same as wiring up an electric dryer or range.  I would be weary of contractors trying to rip consumers off trying to say the installation is something special.  There's nothing special about them at all.

I also have a ~100 miles commute. It seems if typical range gets up to a nominal 200 miles it would cover most of my driving needs and I have other cars for the occasions when I need more range.

GameboyRMH said:

The Model 3 is about $30k and still accelerates very quickly. I think you'll see the cheap EVs in this price bracket becoming more sporty over the next couple of years.

The Model 3 is not anything near $30k.  The cheapest one you can get right now, with no options is $44k.  Want one that isn't black?  Add $5k.  Autopilot?  Add $5k and another $3k on top of that for the full self driving capabilities.

I assume that's with preorder costs? Base price is listed at $35k without incentives.

I wish Tesla would build a "kit" to let you electrify any car with their parts.

mad_machine said:

I wish Tesla would build a "kit" to let you electrify any car with their parts.

I was surfing around the other day and came across a guy converting a Saab Sonnet with a crashed Nissan Leaf's bits.  

I'd love to electronickify one of my Volvo 122s, if there were a drop in kit that would give me 200 mile range, 0-60 times sub 8 seconds, and plug-and-play.

GameboyRMH said:

I assume that's with preorder costs? Base price is listed at $35k without incentives.

You can't buy one at base price.

Not yet, anyway, all the early Model 3s produced will have expensive options.  A family member has an early Model 3 reservation and these are their choices:

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

A drop in kit isn't going to happen. For example how would you deal with regeneration?  While a clever person could convert any car it's never going to be a plug and play sort of thing. 

When Ford model As were in high demand a few people tried to make a go of putting a Pinto engine in them.  None stayed in business long enough to turn a profit. 

Besides there are real safety advantages with the new cars even if they don't have the character of the past.