Feds lend Tesla $465 million to build electric car

Nashco wrote:

kb58 wrote: I guess I get a little annoyed with a myopic view of the world, where if one person's situation is better than others, he applies it without considering all the different situations.

That is my feeling on the situation as well, so we've got that in common. Just because somebody can't justify buying an EV for their own use doesn't mean XX% of the rest of the population can't either. Many people CAN live their daily life with an EV without sacrificing anything. Bryce

Yes, they can. Oddly enough, they don't. It's not myopic, it's the market. Choices ARE available, and few, if any, are taken for EV's.

I observe what people buy, and 99% of the buying public does NOT buy what they need, but what they think they need. To tell them to JUST buy what they need is telling them to sacrifice.

E-

I guess I don't think the same as some of you guys. I don't think there has been much for choice in recent history, but I'm excited to see stuff becoming available. Relevant to the topic at hand, I wish it didn't require goverment regulations and incentives to make it happen, but it looks like that's the way it is shaking out so I guess I'll make the best of it and at least appreciate the products that should come to market because of it. I think that with better choice and increased understanding, many more people will opt to go electric than have in the past. I think the Volt (and plug-ins in general) stands to bridge the gap between traditional gas cars and electric cars that has been missing in the past. I also think OEMs have been missing out on a big opportunity by ignoring this type of vehicle in the past, as it soothes those who fear losing freedoms when adding a plug to their car, but gives enough EV range to cover the needs of the typical commute.

Bryce

Here's some point/counterpoint for you...since I do play this game a lot. Me, devil's advocate? Noooooo....

alfadriver wrote: Most of them will tell you that bikes are dangerous, or hot, or cold; public transportation isn't convienent enough; and EV won't let me take me and my family to granma's house, and I can't afford a second car or more space. All choices are trade offs. People DO think that you must sacrifice you schedule to use public trasportation- it takes my wife an HOUR to cross town using a bus, a half hour to bike, 10 min to drive. In this case, time is money- time is being sacrificed.

I've got heaters and warmer/cooler riding gear for my motorcycle. I ride it when I want to ride it. Motorcycle insurance is very cheap and the little bit of money I spend to own and insure it is well worth the joy I get from it. Motorcycles are statistically more dangerous than driving a car, I can't argue that...I try to be careful and accept the risk for the reward.

While public transportation does typically take longer than driving your own car, you can use that time much more efficiently and productively. While riding the bus/light rail, I can be taking care of my bills, reading and responding to emails, talking with my Dad, or making a to-do list for this week's project. These are things I would normally have to do before/after my drive, but instead I can be multi-tasking by commuting to work while doing other stuff. (On a related note, public transportation efficiency is highly variable by location...Michigan's being pretty horrible IMO. It seems public transportation is a lot better on the west coast and the northeast, from what I know.)

For the driver who forgets to plug in the car overnight, then what? Do you not think buyers think about that? It's not like they can go to an Electric station to fill it up in 3 min.

Most modern EV and EV charger designs have the power to alert the user when something isn't right. Either the battery requires a charge but hasn't been plugged in, the charging station has lost power, or the plug has been removed...stuff like that. This is another thing that a plug-in can help ease fears with, as you can always fall back on the gas if you're in a pinch. Things like proliferant wireless communication, GPS, etc. can make an electric car far more feasible for a day-to-day vehicle than it would have been 30 years ago, even ignoring improved vehicle capabilities. It's a fairly straight-forward application, these days, to have some software that recognizes your location and tells you a) that you're at home and you should be plugged in b)that you're by X location (soccer, the mall, etc.) and there's a charging station with an available slot nearby c)that you are geting out of public plug-in range based on driving style, power consumption, available energy, etc. Pretty cool stuff when you're trying to cater to more than .000000001% of the population.

Bryce

I can't argue your points, but I'm saying that the typical customer does. Although, I'm not sure how electric doodads make EV's more viable than before.

(well, except one- while Michgian's public system sucks, Ann Arbor's doesn't- it's quite good, and pretty popular. Still, an hour to get across town)

One question- why don't you own an EV right now?
http://www.zapworld.com/

http://www.phoenixmotorcars.com/

Just thought I'd ask.

alfadriver wrote: One question- why don't you own an EV right now?

I do, except way cooler than those fugly, half baked things you linked to. I mean, it's in project state like every single one of my cars (even my still-in-warranty Sky is a project!), but it'll be at the challenge. How about instead of saying "I do" I'll say, I will very shortly:

http://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/grm/west-coast-2009-challenger-awd-fiero-hybrid/10519/page1/

If I could buy an EV1 (or lease it, or whatever) today, I'd be all over it...that's my ideal electric car of all those that have existed. The Tesla is cool, but if I had the option I'd rather have an EV1. Jessica and I are seriously contemplating using my S10 electric powertrain and an Insight to make the closest-we're-going-to-get-to-an-EV1 after the $2009. I'm just a DIY type of guy, I like to build stuff. I've been interested in EVs for years, but I'm finally making it a priority. I've fiddled with lots of other stuff, now it's time for an EV.

Bryce

kb58 wrote:

Stop telling people that EVs aren't "capable enough" and they might start to learn something useful.

I think 95% of Americans would be jealous of the 7 mile round trip commute and mild weather. Rightly or wrongly, the typical American commutes further than that, so yes, an electric car needs to be capable, in the sense that it must get you to work and back - that's not unreasonable. Are there EVs that do that now? Yes, can we afford them? In general, no. Now that my company has moved I live about 25 miles from work. To move closer would be a HUGE tax hit, never mind the houses all costing more than our present one. Are you going to write me a check for the difference? No, and I don't expect you to, but it does mean that there are a lot of different situations out there. I myself am unwilling to pay $xxx,xxx in housing costs to save gas money. I guess I get a little annoyed with a myopic view of the world, where if one person's situation is better than others, he applies it without considering all the different situations. Kinda like wondering why people in starving countries don't simply grow more food... it's not that simple.

the average commute in the US is 33 miles. So electrics will work for the average commute.

And again, as I mentioned before, it would take decades at maxumum production levels for the US automotive fleet to be replaced if all manufactures switched over to all electric car production right now. Since we know that they aren't, then why car if the ones that CAN be produced don't meet the needs of 100% of buyers?

Why do we always say, "well, since they don't meet 100% of the potential buyers needs, then we shouldn't even MAKE them." ?

Sounds like horse fans talking about automobiles back in the early 1900s...

Chris_V wrote: Why do we always say, "well, since they don't meet 100% of the potential buyers needs, then we shouldn't even MAKE them." ? Sounds like horse fans talking about automobiles back in the early 1900s...

If you loose money on each one of them, then capitalism says no, you shouldn't. Back in 1900, Henry Ford figured how to combine existing technolgies to be able to make a car for $450, good for the average person.

Once someone comes up with an EV that is both cheap to make and sell that people WILL buy, then it will happen. Simple economics.

And it's not like every OEM isn't trying- EVERYONE is. Which is kind of the point of these loans, too. It's just not nearly as easy as most of you think- you can't waive you hand over LIon batteries, and say- "walla- you are now as cheap as a gas motor". Pretty much all the choices in current battery technology is already in mass production one way or another- making any Tesla in "mass" production isn't going to make the batteries any cheaper, since the computer industry already drives the cost of those units.

Again, if it were that easy, it would have been done before, since EV's are no newer than a Model T. Well, they are actually older than the T.

E-

alfadriver wrote: If you loose money on each one of them, then capitalism says no, you shouldn't. Back in 1900, Henry Ford figured how to combine existing technolgies to be able to make a car for $450, good for the average person.

For some perspective, your dates are a little off if you're referring to Ford's Model T. It actually didn't get to the lower price point until it had been in production for many years. To save some time, I'll reference wikipedia:

The standard 4-seat open tourer of 1909 cost US$850; in 1913, the price dropped to $550, and $440 in 1915. Sales were 69,762 in 1911, 170,211 in 1912, 202,667 in 1913, 308,162 in 1914, and 501,462 in 1915.[22] In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[19] By the 1920s, the price had fallen to $300 because of increasing efficiencies of assembly line technique and volume.

Note that when introduced, the Model T was a lot cheaper than other cars of the day, but still fairly expensive when introduced and reduced in price significantly through its history to eventually become quite cheap. In a modern sense, compare that to something like a Tesla versus something less tailor made that would cost significantly less because it was created for mass-production, such as the upcoming Volt (which will cost a bit less than half as much). Not a direct comparison, but I think the best we could make with today's options. So, imagining the Volt comes out at half the price as a Tesla, one would expect EV sales volumes to pick up dramatically, just as they did with the Model T. With dramatically increased volumes and experience, one would expect prices to drop for a modern EV as well...albeit not nearly as dramatically as the ol' Model T did.

Bryce

Nashco wrote:

alfadriver wrote: If you loose money on each one of them, then capitalism says no, you shouldn't. Back in 1900, Henry Ford figured how to combine existing technolgies to be able to make a car for $450, good for the average person.

For some perspective, your dates are a little off if you're referring to Ford's Model T. It actually didn't get to the lower price point until it had been in production for many years. To save some time, I'll reference wikipedia: Bryce

My point wasn't the specific date referecnce, but that 1) make a cheaper version of X, and people will buy it 1a) make it even cheaper, and more will do so. And 2) EV's are older than the T.

It's not as if EV's have not had thier chance in the sun. Half the price of a Tesla is still $40-50k, vs a similar gas car at half that price.

BTW, I'm not saying that it shouldn't be done, but let's not pretend that there's some global conspiricy to prevent EV's. Right now, EV's will survive and thrive with a pretty strong amount of government backing- whether it be a huge tax on gasoline or new cars or credits to EV's.

Bryce- you just got out of school, right? How about I challenge you to go work on EV's for a living. Put me out of a job. Chris- you can do the same, since you feel so strongly for EV's- there are opportunitues out there, especially with these new tech loans.

Seriously- go help work on the solution, it can be very rewarding.

Eric

Easy there, alfadriver- I pointed out that in their current form full electrics will be a novelty and got (figuratively) smacked upside the head as well.

alfadriver wrote: Bryce- you just got out of school, right? How about I challenge you to go work on EV's for a living. Put me out of a job. Chris- you can do the same, since you feel so strongly for EV's- there are opportunitues out there, especially with these new tech loans. Seriously- go help work on the solution, it can be very rewarding. Eric

I think you've got me mixed up with somebody else. I think I AM part of the solution. I sent you a PM about what I do, I'll let you be the judge.

Bryce

Jensenman wrote: Easy there, alfadriver- I pointed out that in their current form full electrics will be a novelty and got (figuratively) smacked upside the head as well.

Because it was just as short sighted as people complaining about cars in 1900.

alfadriver wrote: BTW, I'm not saying that it shouldn't be done, but let's not pretend that there's some global conspiricy to prevent EV's.

No one's saying there's any conspiracy. Just people making stupid statements, using broad brush generalizations.

alfadriver wrote: Bryce- you just got out of school, right? How about I challenge you to go work on EV's for a living. Put me out of a job. Chris- you can do the same, since you feel so strongly for EV's- there are opportunitues out there, especially with these new tech loans.

I've been helping a friend's company work on charging and battery controller systems, though my investment time is taken up in a new heavy lift air transport company

http://www.millenniumairship.com

E36 M3. Gil changed the website on me. Looks like crap again.

alfadriver wrote:

Chris_V wrote: Why do we always say, "well, since they don't meet 100% of the potential buyers needs, then we shouldn't even MAKE them." ? Sounds like horse fans talking about automobiles back in the early 1900s...

If you loose money on each one of them, then capitalism says no, you shouldn't.

Exactly. If an EV with great range is produced that so few people buy them that the business fails, that's a tough sell to investors.

Speaking of this, I wonder how the Aptera is coming along. That's a $25K EV and if it's as advertised, should be selling as fast as they can make them, but I haven't heard much. That's the first decent EV that gets serious mileage, in a package that's actually usable, though I'm suspicious of their specs. The timeline's been pushing out, some no doubt due to the economy, but probably also with sales potential having dropped with gas prices.

I'm all for EVs, I just feel there's nothing wrong with going into this with both eyes open, instead of turning it into fanboy/religion where you just have to believe the marketing people... ugh. Nothing wrong with facts driving this.

Oh, and the ultimate irony is that the day we all give up our gas cars and get EV will have us sitting in the exact same traffic jams that we do now. EVs are only one aspect of solving transporation problems - not The solution.

kb58 wrote: Exactly. If an EV with great range is produced that so few people buy them that the business fails, that's a tough sell to investors. Speaking of this, I wonder how the Aptera is coming along. That's a $25K EV and if it's as advertised, should be selling as fast as they can make them, but I haven't heard much. That's the first decent EV that gets serious mileage, in a package that's actually usable, though I'm suspicious of their specs.

I'd think the issue with the Aptera is that it doesn't look like a car. It looks WAY too eccentric, and the average person thinks it's ugly. In order for the masses to buy in, it has to be considerably more conventional.

I mean, which do you think the average person would be more drawn to in their driveway:

or this:

Chris_V wrote:

Jensenman wrote: Easy there, alfadriver- I pointed out that in their current form full electrics will be a novelty and got (figuratively) smacked upside the head as well.

Because it was just as short sighted as people complaining about cars in 1900.

Considering the technology of 1900 they had valid points as well. When there were almost no gas stations or anyone who knew how to fix them, cars were expensive novelties for those with excess disposable income. It was a good long while before the masses could afford to own and operate one. In the meantime, people of average means could continue to use horses, buggies and bicycles and get around just fine.

And so it will go with the current crop of full electrics. They will be expensive novelties with limited use at first, then as technology improves and the costs come down the general public will start to buy them. Which, BTW, is what I have said all along.

History repeats itself.

(waits anxiously to see what 'the last word' will be)

Apparently sperm are very aerodynamic.

I'm so excited! Let's see America take the lead in the development of electric cars! It looks like there were also some strings attached to the loans to ensure that much of the production is done here.

As you all know by now, the electric mini is out now. You can only lease it in a few places and it's somewhat expensive, but somebody pointed out that mini makes even more expensive cars (a loaded clubman s) and they are selling well.

I saw some electric full-size scooters at a motorcycle dealership today that are capable of 60 mph and they have a nice range too. And they weren't unafordible either.

The electric age is upon us. The first vehicles will be flawed and handicaped by the infancy of our battery tehnology, but with every university in the country helping all the automakers, human ingenuity will accelerate things faster than we thought possible. I bet that in three years, some of us on this very board will own electric cars. I hope to be able to drive one within a year (come on Volt!).

I just look around me and everything I see tells me that I live in the future--not the present. We have computers in our cars that talk to us and that can understand us when we talk to them, maps that show us where we are and how to get to where we're going, and telephones with touch screen LCD displays that can access the Internet (like the one I just wrote this with). And lasers. Lasers are so cool! I'm ready to start buying cars that don't use 120 year old technology to move them.

Wow...I had to skip all this political/green/eco hippie crap just tos say....I drove a Tesla yesterday and would buy one if I had the money. Plus, they have a sedan 5+ seater in the works (2010). And you can just plug it in anywhere, we had it charging by our generator in the trailer and a regular old 110v 15A house outlet. While it was a little tough getting in and out, it was a blast.

My comments on the loan from the feds, at least they're actually building and "selling" an EV and improving on their original R & D not buying some useless CEO a new jet or helicopter or golden parachutes.