codrus (Forum Supporter)
codrus (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
6/21/21 10:39 a.m.
Streetwiseguy said:

In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :

But the guy in second place has nothing to lose by coming early.  The Bottas situation pulled them way earlier than Merc wanted.  

No question there were mistakes made by Merc.  But, based on the undercut pass by Max, the only choice was to go long with Lewis.  He had the opportunity to pass after the first stop, but was not able to.   So, run the tires to the end and hope Max gets caught up in traffic, or wears the tires out.  And, it just about worked.

I was going to say their bigger mistake was in not giving Bottas new tires when Max got his third set, but they were hoping for him to be a blocker more than they wanted him to beat Sergio, I guess.

Red Bull won that race more than Mercedes lost it, I feel.

I don't think a second stop for Bottas would have changed the results aside from maybe giving him fast lap.  He would have dropped behind Perez while doing that, and the difference in setups on the cars meant the Mercedes didn't have the speed to pass a Red Bull even with DRS.  Yes, Perez isn't Verstappen in defense, but Bottas isn't Hamilton in offense either (especially not right now).

I agree that once the undercut had happened there was no choice but to leave Hamilton out and try to hang onto the track position.  The only significant Mercedes mistake I can point to is not predicting the strength of the undercut.

I also agree that Red Bull had the stronger car & setup for the race, it was only Verstappen's uncharacteristic driving error on the first lap that even gave Mercedes a chance at winning.

 

trigun7469
trigun7469 SuperDork
6/21/21 10:58 a.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner : My predicted DNF's are not based on a Max mistake but rather a failure by the team (engine, Gearbox...). Not taking credit away from Hamilton, but I think Wolf is a big reason why the team levels up. I hope someone writes a book or a movie behind the scenes of what really goes on at Mercedes.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner MegaDork
6/21/21 12:39 p.m.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
Keith Tanner said:

In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :

I don't think anyone in the paddock thinks Mercedes screwed up the pit stop timing, not even Red Bull. That undercut was crazy strong and Lewis still came out basically beside Max. He picked up about 3s on that lap.

Well, predicting the strength of the undercut is the kind of thing that the strategists are paid to do -- that's their job.  Pitting Bottas was likely to bring Verstappen in the next lap to defend against a Mercedes undercut, so predicting that and bringing Hamilton in at the same time would have made sense.  Yes it's likely that there were other considerations we don't know about and that at the time the strategists thought those considerations were more important than a small risk of RB undercutting them.  They were wrong though, and I don't think it's unreasonable to consider that a mistake.

Verstappen was 3.5 seconds ahead of Hamilton when he made the second pit stop on lap 32 and was 2.9 seconds ahead at the finish.  If he'd done the same pit stop from 1 second behind Hamilton (if Mercedes had pitted Hamilton 1 lap earlier and kept the lead) then he would probably have run out of laps before he managed to catch up, and Mercedes would probably have won the race.

Once Verstappen made his error on the opening lap and lost his initial lead Mercedes had an opportunity to win, but their own error in execution meant they couldn't follow through on it.

 

If Lewis had managed to get ahead of Max after that pit stop - it looked really close from what I remember - then Lewis would have been in control. Even if he'd held Max up for a couple of laps, that would have been enough of a difference at the end of the race. At least it was a quick pit stop, that's a place that Mercedes have been giving up time to Red Bull all season.

I think Max was the one who said they were surprised at just how strong the undercut was at that point, strategists can only work with the data they have and I don't think anyone had the data that said how much faster the cars would be on fresh hards (I think it was fresh hards, I don't have the chance to look that up right now). It was so close.

I agree that Toto is a big part of why that team works. Nico vs Lewis was his first year, and he's said publicly he wouldn't allow that to happen again. The Mercedes culture is a very healthy one these days. But Lewis has definitely improved his mental game quite a bit. Also, every time I hear Nico Rosberg commenting I want to punch him.

codrus (Forum Supporter)
codrus (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
6/21/21 3:36 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

If Lewis had managed to get ahead of Max after that pit stop - it looked really close from what I remember - then Lewis would have been in control. Even if he'd held Max up for a couple of laps, that would have been enough of a difference at the end of the race. At least it was a quick pit stop, that's a place that Mercedes have been giving up time to Red Bull all season.

I think Max was the one who said they were surprised at just how strong the undercut was at that point, strategists can only work with the data they have and I don't think anyone had the data that said how much faster the cars would be on fresh hards (I think it was fresh hards, I don't have the chance to look that up right now). It was so close.

Yeah, I agree that if they'd kept him ahead at the pit stop he would have had a very strong chance of winning.  And yes, they were surprised by how strong it was -- but they shouldn't have been surprised.  This wasn't a random chance event like a safety car or what lap the rain started on, this is something that the team works very hard not to be surprised by.  It's a choice that was under their control and which they should, in principle, have been able to gather the data to predict.  It's something they can fix next time by working harder and understanding the tires, track surface, conditions, etc better.  That's what I mean by it being a "mistake", I'm contrasting it to simple bad luck.

adam525i
adam525i Dork
6/21/21 3:59 p.m.
Keith Tanner said: Also, every time I hear Nico Rosberg commenting I want to punch him.

Get in line!

HoserRacing
HoserRacing HalfDork
6/21/21 4:09 p.m.
adam525i said:
Keith Tanner said: Also, every time I hear Nico Rosberg commenting I want to punch him.

Get in line!

Amen!  

759NRNG
759NRNG UberDork
6/21/21 6:16 p.m.

I'm not knowing of this 'undercut' of which y'all speak.....please explain......thanks

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner MegaDork
6/21/21 6:31 p.m.

It means pitting before your competitor and ripping off a fast lap or two before they can (or choose to) pit. Those fast laps mean that when your competitor comes out of the pits, he's behind you.

In this case, Lewis was about 3s ahead of Max. Max pulled in, got new tires and put in a lap that was about 3s faster than Lewis was able to manage. Because Max was behind Lewis to start with, Mercedes didn't have any chance to react to Red Bull on the same lap so Max got one lap on fresh tires while Lewis noodled around on worn ones.

The way to defend against an undercut is to either have enough of a lead that the following car can't catch up or to stop first. Mercedes obviously figured that about 3s was enough to protect Lewis, Red Bull decided it wasn't, Red Bull was right.

 

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
6/21/21 9:48 p.m.

In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :

If Valteri had come in when Max did, he would have had maybe 15 lap newer tires than Checo.  It might have worked, and it couldn't have been worse.

Vajingo
Vajingo HalfDork
6/21/21 10:11 p.m.

Bottas Has had a really rough year

Subscriber-unavailabile
Subscriber-unavailabile HalfDork
6/25/21 8:20 p.m.

Just watched highlights of FP1 and 2, seems like this might be another great/different race. Handful of drivers having spin issues, Ricardo in 2nd so far!! Bottas out of top 10. Qualifying is going to be very interesting..

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
6/26/21 12:47 a.m.

In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :

I agree that MB made a mistake in France. As I was watching the race and hearing the drivers reporting their tire deg on the Mediums I was actually thinking that Lewis needed to switch to a 2 stopper. The drivers weren't doing their normal tire reporting.."OH these tires are done"  they were saying that something was very very bad with the tire life. I picked up on that. When I then saw the pace of LeClerc and Ricciardo after their stops I thought OK MB HAVE to pit Lewis now!

Then when I saw a MB in the pits I actually said out loud, "yes!" Then I realized it was Bottas. Then I slouched back into my couch and felt Lewis' race was coming undone.

It was obvious to me that the track changed with the early rain on track and like a rain race; MB needed to flex based on the moment. I assumed that they failed to switch to the two stop because they ran out of tires or something.  But they got rigid with their strategy instead of realizing the track changed a lot. 

From then it was a frustrating watch of Lewis just not being able to get as much traction off the corners leading onto the DRS straights to do anything. 

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
6/26/21 12:52 a.m.

Ok ok I will give Redbull some respect I that they have for the past few years been able to really get a lot of traction on corner exits when it matters. They gain enough that even if MB has higher speed and DRS they just run out of straight to get them. 

Oh and GO McLaren! My favorite team! Go Williams with a solid run!

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/26/21 8:04 a.m.

Bottas' season is getting worse- he got a 3 grid penalty for the spin in the pits yesterday...  

There's so much debate over Bottas v Russell- and a lot of "oh, it's nothing" coming from Merc.  But it sure seems that Valteri is working to make the swap sometimes.

loosecannon
loosecannon SuperDork
6/26/21 8:18 a.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

I don't think VB is doing a good job helping LH and the team with either the Drivers Championship or the Team Championship. Sometimes he shows flashes of brilliance but often he's nowhere to be found. It seems that if he has a sniff of winning, he tries hard but once victory seems unlikely, he just puts it in cruise control. I think he's going to lose his seat because he's not doing a good job in the support role

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/26/21 8:24 a.m.

In reply to loosecannon :

The part that I've been "frustrated" with over the years is that Valteri doesn't seem to be able to pass anywhere near his teammate.  That includes when Russell was there.  He seems more bothered by the aero issues, and can't set up a pass- which pretty much sticks him wherever the track position dictates.  Add that to how this season is going- I can't see him being resigned.  

While there's a risk of a Rosberg like incident with Russell- Mercedes does need to look more into the future- Hamilton may be at the top of his game, but his time is much more finite than George's.  And if they don't get Russell- who is next?

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/26/21 9:04 a.m.

Weird qualifying for Mercedes- they really seemed to struggle in one of the sectors- either fastest in 1 or fastest in 3, but not really close to both at the same time.  Really odd that they had so much trouble in sector one at the end- just one corner for that sector, and 0.2 sec down on Verstappen.

Bottas get's second, so 5th on the grid.  And Norris 4th to start 3rd.

Hamilton has his work cut out for him tomorrow.  Seeing him eye over the car, he's not sure why it was a problem, too.

wae
wae UberDork
6/27/21 8:50 a.m.

Oh man...  I really thought today was going to be the day that George was going to get points in his Williams....

loosecannon
loosecannon SuperDork
6/27/21 9:08 a.m.

This is turning out to be a boring race, we need rain

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
6/27/21 9:43 a.m.

In reply to loosecannon :

Very boring.  Does not look good for next week....  Hope their is rain.

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
6/27/21 9:58 a.m.

Yeah, poor old George.  The Schleprock of formula 1.

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
6/27/21 10:40 p.m.

Pre race, Martin Brindle on the grid walk, explaining about the rules for the trophies: "The winners trophy must be between 50 and 65 centimeters tall. The second and third place trophy are smaller, to remind you that you lost.  As a man who has ten podium trophies at home, all second and third, I can tell you how much that hurts."

I was well amused.

bigbrainonbrad
bigbrainonbrad Reader
6/28/21 9:24 a.m.

It really is looking like the Red Bull team has an advantage all around over MB. As a casual fan, I'm very happy to get away from one team being dominant. Let's hope Red Bull poaches some good people from Honda and can keep the development of the power unit up. Truth be told, I find Horner to be ridiculous, I don't like Red Bull as a product, but Verstappen and Perez are very likable drivers.

Advan046
Advan046 UltraDork
7/1/21 8:41 a.m.

In reply to bigbrainonbrad :

Well I was curious how the regulation changes for 2022 PLUS the bigger factor of the budget cap being introduced would generate a lot more movement of staff between teams or just out of F1. The regulation changes mean that someone could leave a team early, like last year and start this year on the 2022 car as they probably shouldn't have too much knowledge of their prior teams 2022 car for them to enforce "gardening leave." Then some probably now look up their management chain and realize that it will probably be much longer before promotions happen as money is a lot more tight. So Honda F1 power system group being absorbed by RB makes for lots of promotion opportunities. Then Stroll F1 pulling sponsors and also dumping his own money into a small team will generate a lot of new hires (as we have seen already).

Given some of the moves I anticipate that MB will have a very tough time in 22 and 23 from an organizational flow but luckily they have the best manager in Toto to make it through in the best way.

RBR is either going to explode and fail dramatically or stay on course. I can't tell exactly but I think Horner is a HORRIBLE leader but then he may be very different inside the team vs how he is towards media and other teams. Still I have met coworkers that thrive of his kind of leadership so IDK. Taking on the powertrain will require a lot of Honda backing and I am sure they are negotiating that along with Yuki's contract at Alpha Tauri. 

McLaren seems to have a good vibe that is at the right level for transition into 2022. Lots of "feelings" of opportunity should help them keep their team tight and focused.

Ferrari has a calm and stable leadership that they long needed and it is showing on track. I still wonder if they have a stable structure internal to handle the 2022 transition but with two drivers at their peak, they will be inspired for sure and maybe look better than the car really should. 

Subscriber-unavailabile
Subscriber-unavailabile HalfDork
7/2/21 9:34 p.m.

Watched highlights of FP2, curious if Mercedes really found the speed they need, or RB is holding back for now. Vettel is starting impress me again. Figured he's been getting seats past couple of years because he's vettel and did okay, but it's starting to seem like he's getting back into the fight.

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