Help me pro/con/weighted-thingy ICE vs EV vs Hybrid vs Plug-In Hybrid

We've talked about all these things, of course, possibly to a standstill. There aren't any real unknown aspects. What I'm trying to figure out is where the breaks are between different use cases and the best option for each, and how much to weight some of the "special" properties of each. That is, it's one thing to compare the purchase price, MPG, and range and figure out whether Person A might get the most bang/$ out of a plug-in hybrid because 90% of their driving would be EV, but then how do you as objectively as possible weigh in the "con" of carting around all the complexity of both power sources AND a bigger battery than a regular hybrid against the EV "pro" of a fraction of the moving parts or the Regular-hybrid "pro" of a big chunk of the fuel savings for relatively low-buy in vs the ICE "pro" of known quantity and lowest buy-in (all else being equal)? Can these things be quantified? Of course we don't make final decisions on a calculator anyhow, but it's good to look at this stuff...

The upshot is trying to get to some sort of obviously usage-dependent notion of what's closest to ideal, avoid what's bad, and avoid sort of unhappy-mediums in the case of:

• ICE: We know what these do
• EV: Few moving parts, range is the limit, but for many people only a limit when going on trips (my bias, but I'm certain that's not rare)
• Hybrid: Like a VCR/TV combo: No range worries, not as efficient as an EV, but you can go anywhere with better mileage (trading off battery cost and overall complexity against improved MPG)
• Plug-In Hybrid: This is the one that really got me trying to think through the use-case pros/cons: You get all the complexity of a Hybrid, battery cost between Hybrid and EV... But you get almost all the DD efficiency of an EV and the range of a Hybrid (or ICE).

I'm trying to figure out where the breaks are between "A plug-in hybrid is the worst of both worlds" and "A plug-in hybrid is the best of both worlds." And how to weight the not-bottom-line aspects. We're prognosticating a bit when we pencil out long term savings for EVs because of fewer parts against a chunk for eventual batteries, and how do we objectively weigh the matter of having to plan trips around charging?

I'm afraid I've done a poor job of articulating the bit of change from the way we usually discuss these things. I think I need to make up a four-row spreadsheet...

In reply to Jesse Ransom :

I know exactly what your asking, and I'll be following this thread woth intrest.

I think the first question everyone ask will be your intent.  Family car? Maximum mile per dollar? Daily use? Truck for doing truck stuff?

Based on merit alone PHEVs are pretty appealing if you have good charging infrastructure at home or at work. I'm also a bit turned off by the complexity aspect though, they're like the worst of both worlds from a service perspective.

I think to have this discussion you also need to consider the acquisition. If a lease is on the table, a PHEV or EV makes a lot more sense. Not only does that get you out of the worries about what these things will be like to own at 120k, but the tech is moving so fast; solid state batteries are around the corner and range is going up and up and up. For an outright purchase I am not sure the same value proposition is there unless you like being an early adopter.

A close friend of mine bought a new Model 3 and has so far reported that the cheap day-to-day running costs are offset by very expensive brake services (and something else I can't remember off hand). But Tesla is also weird about who they will let touch the car which probably doesn't help.

I don't have a solution to the question, but fuel/electricity cost, tax/utility incentives (the former being significant on a new vehicle, and the latter can completely subsidize the installation of a home EV charger) and exactly what your particular use case may be are some pretty big swingers either for or against.  You also won't get a complete picture without knowing what kind of registration surcharges your state may or may not charge.

One recommendation I will make though, based on having owned an i3 REx, i8, and currently an X3 Hybrid, is that if you're buying a PHEV, stick with one that uses a motor commonly used by the manufacturer on another automotive platform.  No real point in dealing with a 2 cylinder scooter motor like on the i3, or an extremly turbocharged 1.5 liter 3 cylinder like the i8.  Those may, however, just be artifacts of the state of the art at the time.  The X3e uses a version of the 2.0 liter, 4 cylinder B48 engine that BMW uses across pretty much their entire x30 line-up.

My impression is that the plug-in hybrids on the market have a huge range of variance in battery size.  Some are teeny, offering efficiency gains in short commute situations but little else.  Others are quite a bit larger, meaning they act more like EVs with a built-in generator/charger.  If you were making a spreadsheet, I think you'd probably want a different line for every plug-in hybrid model that you're considering, because of that variance.

I would think that PHEV complexity/service/repair costs aren't likely to be all that different from a normal hybrid.  Really the only extra component compared to something like a normal Prius is the charging circuitry to run it off AC power and a larger battery.

Another axis of variance is the performance when the battery is empty.  Some of them will drive OK on gas engine alone, others are really really slow.

In reply to Karacticus :

As much as we all dunk on crossover cute ute type vehicles in these parts, the Toyota RAV4 Prime seems like a hell of a vehicle and would probably be my PHEV choice were I in the market. Lots of parts commonality with the non-PHEV versions but also they are QUICK. 302HP and 0-60 in 5.2 seconds!

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/amp33028735/2021-toyota-rav4-prime-xse-by-the-numbers/

It's hard to say how much a problem maintenance and longevity will be for plug-in hybrids because they're just so new, and sell so few. The Volt is probably the best example, and I wouldn't hesitate to buy one based on long term reviews and quite a few friends who have had anecdotally great experiences.

We bought a plug-in Pacifica, which I was not super keen on but did tick all the boxes. I do worry about Chrysler's inexperience with such a system, but so far so good for us (knock wood). If the Sienna Hybrid had been available at the time it might have been a more difficult decision, but with the Pacifica we have had about 2/3 of our miles on electric-only power, so hard to say. 

The best parts of EV ownership are avoiding gas stations forever and simplified mechanicals. A plug-in hybrid misses those but avoids the range issues a pure EV owner has to deal with. I'd always go with the pure EV over a plug-in if range isn't a big deal, but that's a big individual decision. 

In reply to pointofdeparture :

We were shopping both the Rav4 Prime and the PHEV Escape when we got our Pacifica. None were anywhere to be had on any dealer lots. I think the Rav4 is really hard to find even now, and usually sells at a dealer markup, often approaching Tesla Model Y prices. 

edit: I did a quick search and found there are ~300 Rav4 primes for sale nationwide, not nearly as bad as I thought. But there are only 7 Escape PHEVs somehow. I don't think Ford is very serious about it. 

I like the idea, I understand where you want to go with the thread, but I think it's too individual of a situation to make a generalization.

Although I think plugin hybrids may find themselves losing ground because all the complexities of both systems, working in harmony. I haven't looked too hard at that from that initial impression, but there aren't many manufacturers I would trust to do that reliably. (Yes, big sweeping generalization)

Right now we have a 12 civic and an 02 excursion. Both gassers. The civic will most likely be replaced first. Dana wants a CRV. I'm pushing for electric only or hybrid depending on what's available when we're ready to purchase, because 95% of her driving is 3 miles each way to work or 30 miles each way to our parents. Her main demands are bigger than the civic, backup camera, Bluetooth, remote start, I just feel a hybrid or electric would be better for her due to the shortness of the trips. (Always drilled into my head growing up that short trips and stop n go are bad for engines, maybe it's not true anymore)

On the other hand, while the excursion may be replaced with another truck or large SUV because I do need to do truck stuff when I'm using it, I'm going to shy away from the electric only until the entrance costs come down. I feel like the Rivian or EF150 would be great replacements for my miles/hauling needs, but the cost to entry is just not feasible and most likely won't be for a long time to come, in my particular situation. Mileage doesn't mean E36 M3 to me most times, not compared to carrying the family, sheet goods, lumber, pipe, pellets, all things actual trucks are getting worse at as they make the beds shorter in length and taller in height. I'm averaging a fill up every 2 months in the excursion, short of really good computer controls I'd worry about trashing the batteries through lack of use. 

But I'll be paying close attention because I know there's things I'm not aware of with the drive trains and I could be swayed one way or another.

I dipped my toes in the EV waters back in 2013 with a Volt PHEV. The EVs that were available then were compliance cars with really limited range, or Teslas, which were just way to expensive. I found that even with the mere 40 mile range it gave, I didn't need as much of the gas engine as I thought I might (used about 6 gallons in a 6 month span) and thought maybe a car like the riotous Spark EV or Fiat 500E might be a great replacement. Never did jump on that because about the same time as I would have bought one, cars like the 2017 Bolt EV and Kona EV were hitting the market with 230 miles of range. More than enough I thought, but still too pricey. So I just kept the Volt around. in 2020, the price of the newly upgraded Bolt had come down to about $22-23k base. Hmmm. 258 miles rated range. Went with my wife and test drove one. So much fun with outstanding acceleration. So we leased on with a pricetag of $25k. Very rapidly it became the default daily driver and de-facto road trip car, as we were seeing over 300 miles in the summer and 220 miles in the winter. Drove it quite a bit and found that, over the course of 2020 it saw a lot of miles (even with Covid) but the Volt saw about 300 miles total. So I sold it and bought a convertible (if there had been an inexpensive EV convertible, it'd probably be in my driveway now).

Like RevRico, I'm going to wait to replace my Suburban tow pig, simply because it's paid off and the cost of the longer range EV trucks is outrageous (and many Ford dealers are starting to mark up the pre-ordered Lightnings by as much as $30k!!!!!). But that'll change, too.

When the lease is up on the Bolt (Feb, 2023), we're going to be looking at a few EVs. The Kia EV6, Mustang Mach E, and in a dream world for my wife, the Lyriq. For daily driving, we're never not going to be in an EV at this point. It's just too convenient.

Jesse Ransom said:

We're prognosticating a bit when we pencil out long term savings for EVs because of fewer parts against a chunk for eventual batteries, and how do we objectively weigh the matter of having to plan trips around charging?

With the exception of the Leaf, you can expect batteries to last as long as an ICE. So I'd pencil out both of those future costs to be pretty similar.

Planning road trips around charging is not really a big deal and becoming less of one all the time - unless you're trying to cross rural Sweden a couple of days below freezing, maybe :) But basically, it's a very easy thing to adapt to. I have a number of EV-owning friends - not all of whom drive Teslas - that happily road trip cross country in theirs.

The PHEV is a really interesting case. For some, it's the best of all worlds. My solar installer loves the Volt they have in the fleet - but the full EVs are a Mitsu i-Miev and a Chevy Spark, neither of which are really the cream of the crop. For others, it's training wheels until you realize that even a small amount of electric range will cover a large percentage of your driving.

The comment about expensive brake services on a Model 3 are interesting. I'm assuming the car is seeing track use, because daily brake usage is very low thanks to regen - that's an EV trait. And pads/rotors are easily available and in line with other cars because the friction brakes are normal other than the booster. Autozone shows a set of four Model 3 rotors is under $200, for example.

While hybrids have a lot of moving parts, there's a reason:

$EV>$PHEV>$HEV>$ICE

Hopefully, some day the math will change a lot, but at the moment....

In reply to alfadriver :

That's all down to battery capacity. The market will determine what the perceived required range is, as it will always come down to cost vs range.

The running costs follow the opposite trend, so it's a matter of a higher up-front cost for a lower running cost. If you're financing, that means you can put those savings towards the payment. But people don't think that way, they concentrate on "what's the lowest monthly payment". 

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Regular brake servicing is precisely because the brakes rarely get used.  Prius brakes, of which I am most familiar because they are by far the most common, generally seize into a binding uselessness after a year or so if you don't keep up on clearing rust from the pad slide areas and relubricating.  Even with regular service the rotors get rusty from the edges in, because they never quite get hot enough to burn off overnight rust.

This is actually something that can be helped with software tweaks, with the first few stops of a trip made 100% brake-assist to clear the the rotors off before the pads heat up to the deposition zone.  (I am unaware if they are actually doing this already: watching the dashboard video game while driving one suggests no)

Or, and this is bound to be an unpopular opinion, revert to drums, which do not have these problems.  Prius rear drum brakes last 250-300k miles with minimal/no service, same as a Corolla.  Computer control should help eliminate the problems with nonlinearity that drums have, and they have a lot less drag.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

That's my point.  And while EVing costs very little WRT getting from A to B, making up the difference in gas for the battery delta- it's not exactly the same.  Someday, it may be.  But it will take a big change in the batteries.

pointofdeparture said:

In reply to Karacticus :

As much as we all dunk on crossover cute ute type vehicles in these parts, the Toyota RAV4 Prime seems like a hell of a vehicle and would probably be my PHEV choice were I in the market. Lots of parts commonality with the non-PHEV versions but also they are QUICK. 302HP and 0-60 in 5.2 seconds!

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/amp33028735/2021-toyota-rav4-prime-xse-by-the-numbers/

Yeah, it does seem like the RAV4 Prime could be the pick of the litter at this point.

If I had it to do again, I'd probably take the leap to the X5 40e PHEV.  Though the cost was considerably higher, it provided (at the time, anyway) a higher tax rebate, still comes with the inline 6 as opposed to a 4, has a larger battery/more range and charges at a higher rate-- like 7 kW versus 3.

I have noticed that BMW isn't currently producing the X3e.  I guess they are saving parts for the X5s that I assume there's more profit in.

I will say that the implementation BMW is using where the electric motor is substituted for the torque converter in the ZF 8-speed operates in an extremely seamless manner.  The car isn't terribly quick in electric only mode, but it's downright sprightly for a cute UTE when using the torque outputs of both the electric and ICE-- and I've used the factory trailer hitch to move small landscaping equipment around and take one longer trip to pick up a used box blade.

Here's a picture  of the stats the vehicle keeps.  Even with less than 20 miles of electric range, just over a third of the miles I've put on the car have been in electric mode.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

There is a taxi owner/operator of a taxi in Vancouver who decided on a Tesla 3.

His analysis came down to Tesla 3 payments + energy = Prius payment + energy he decided pay the bank or big oil and decided on the bank.

edit re the original post - I think we have a complex multi-variate equation that is beyond my pay grade.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Regular brake servicing is precisely because the brakes rarely get used.  Prius brakes, of which I am most familiar because they are by far the most common, generally seize into a binding uselessness after a year or so if you don't keep up on clearing rust from the pad slide areas and relubricating.  Even with regular service the rotors get rusty from the edges in, because they never quite get hot enough to burn off overnight rust.

This is actually something that can be helped with software tweaks, with the first few stops of a trip made 100% brake-assist to clear the the rotors off before the pads heat up to the deposition zone.  (I am unaware if they are actually doing this already: watching the dashboard video game while driving one suggests no)

Or, and this is bound to be an unpopular opinion, revert to drums, which do not have these problems.  Prius rear drum brakes last 250-300k miles with minimal/no service, same as a Corolla.  Computer control should help eliminate the problems with nonlinearity that drums have, and they have a lot less drag.

It appears from members of this forum that both the Teslas and the Bolt have stainless rotors. They certainly don't rust. I know the Teslas will (depending on settings) activate the friction brakes when the car comes to a stop to hold it, so the calipers do get regular movement if not actual heat. The fronts on the Tesla are four-pot so there's no slider pins to worry about.

"Inspect and lubricate brake calipers" is about the only other thing on the service schedule other than tire rotation. It shouldn't be an expensive service and can be performed by any shop. Tesla's labor rates are about normal but you'd be paying OE prices for replacement parts and brakes seem to be the area where there's the biggest delta between OE and aftermarket.

In reply to alfadriver :

There's service in there as well if you're going to look at TCO.

Battery prices have been dropping for years. It's not a matter of the one big magical breakthrough (the EV equivalent of the 100 mpg carburetor) but of optimization and production capacity. The purchase price delta is getting awfully small.

Keith Tanner said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Regular brake servicing is precisely because the brakes rarely get used.  Prius brakes, of which I am most familiar because they are by far the most common, generally seize into a binding uselessness after a year or so if you don't keep up on clearing rust from the pad slide areas and relubricating.  Even with regular service the rotors get rusty from the edges in, because they never quite get hot enough to burn off overnight rust.

This is actually something that can be helped with software tweaks, with the first few stops of a trip made 100% brake-assist to clear the the rotors off before the pads heat up to the deposition zone.  (I am unaware if they are actually doing this already: watching the dashboard video game while driving one suggests no)

Or, and this is bound to be an unpopular opinion, revert to drums, which do not have these problems.  Prius rear drum brakes last 250-300k miles with minimal/no service, same as a Corolla.  Computer control should help eliminate the problems with nonlinearity that drums have, and they have a lot less drag.

It appears from members of this forum that both the Teslas and the Bolt have stainless rotors. They certainly don't rust. I know the Teslas will (depending on settings) activate the friction brakes when the car comes to a stop to hold it, so the calipers do get regular movement if not actual heat. The fronts on the Tesla are four-pot so there's no slider pins to worry about.

"Inspect and lubricate brake calipers" is about the only other thing on the service schedule other than tire rotation. It shouldn't be an expensive service and can be performed by any shop. Tesla's labor rates are about normal but you'd be paying OE prices for replacement parts and brakes seem to be the area where there's the biggest delta between OE and aftermarket.

Seconded. My Bolt brakes look and function like brand new after two years and 46K miles. They appear to be all stainless.

this is my 'want' list  Hybrid

100 miles at least EV with plug in at least 110-220v for at home , 

ICE motor   that will run once you  use 75%  of your ev power up even at highway speeds. simple 3 or 4 cyl proven bullet proof motor.

Astro Van size , rear wheel drive  if possible

Solar charging roof and solar charging windows  so maybe you can get 20 miles charging when sitting in work parking lot,

zero to 60mph in about 10 seconds

the above hybrid gives most people EV most of the time , charging at home or work and a little solar thrown in , But  you have the range when you need that trip to Las Vegas  ( about 300 miles each way)

Toyota has some  fancy Astro Van size  passenger vans in many markets .....

PS....yes my idea is really just a plug in Prius van with a longer range  battery !

Solar charging roof isn't all that viable, alas. Figure you manage to fit 400W on the roof. That will get you between 1-1,5 miles of range per hour at 100% solar efficiency.  It's a great dream, but the solar arrays are going to have to be separate from the vehicle :)

Keith Tanner said:

In reply to alfadriver :

There's service in there as well if you're going to look at TCO.

Battery prices have been dropping for years. It's not a matter of the one big magical breakthrough (the EV equivalent of the 100 mpg carburetor) but of optimization and production capacity. The purchase price delta is getting awfully small.

I'm not sure how much more optimization can happen with the current chemistry.  There's some changes to it- getting the cobalt out would be a huge one.  And the theories of solid electrolytes.  But for that to equal ICE + fuel costs without a tax break, it will have to be pretty significant.

Not sure why service is included in my costs- for the most part, they would add one fill up every 5-10k miles.  Hardly significant.  Other than that, service is the same- brakes, tires, etc.

I'll finish up and go away after I point out that I've still not seen the viable path, even though it will be coming.  Hope it happens, just can't see it, yet.

Stupid question time.

What the hell is a PHEV?

I started seeing badges in the early 2000s, mostly on Subaru appliance products. Then it seemed like the term disappeared for a while, and now it's back, although it seems to be interchanged with any measure of better efficiency.

My Ranger was tagged LEV, for low emissions vehicle, so it can't mean "pretty high emissions vehicle". 

Pretty high efficiency vehicle? Partial hybrid escape velocity?

RevRico said:

Stupid question time.

What the hell is a PHEV?

I started seeing badges in the early 2000s, mostly on Subaru appliance products. Then it seemed like the term disappeared for a while, and now it's back, although it seems to be interchanged with any measure of better efficiency.

My Ranger was tagged LEV, for low emissions vehicle, so it can't mean "pretty high emissions vehicle". 

Pretty high efficiency vehicle? Partial hybrid escape velocity?

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle