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Boost_Crazy said:In reply to frenchyd :
I'm only replying to this to help Tom hit his goal. Almost all of your misinformation has already been corrected earlier in this thread. But I will give you partial credit for creating some new misinformation on solar, not easy to do.
Depending on where you live solar panel can make economic sense. And you don't have to trust the panel salesman to find that out.
Yes! You are finally getting it!
The weather department has your Zip codes , sunlight average. Going back over 100 years. Use a 20% conversion rate (most new ones are 22%. )That should tell you how many years to pay off. High altitude in south West states can reach that payoff very quickly. Sea level in North East states may take double that time.
False alarm. You still don't get it. Weather? Altitude? Minor factors. While they have an influence, energy usage, energy cost, and cost of the solar system are the driving factors on ROI. There is an elephant in the room wearing a hat, and you are focusing on the hat.
The new panels themselves now have a 30 year performance guarantee How much solar conversion will be lost by the end of 30 years.
Next you need to go to your states rules. All states will connect you to the grid. ( Yes even Florida and California give credits). Not a lot of states will send you a check for excess energy,over what you use. Typically they will give you credits . While those can be sold. It's far easier to use what you make. If you use less than $100 a month of electricity it will take you a long time to pay off the panels. As your electric bill gets higher the pay off is quicker.
trees, buildings, etc to your south reduce effectivenessCalifornia doesn't offer the same net metering anymore. They give you partial credit during the peak solar time and charge more during peak time of use. You need a battery to make solar viable, with adds cost and reduced ROI.
Hence the solar and EV connection. Your excess during the day is credited to your night use. Typically most houses are empty during the day. Use very little electricity. So you burn through those credits at night.
It still doesn't work that way, nothing has changed since a few pages ago. Peak production and peak use don't match up. See why California changed it's rules above.
here's the short version
You stop paying your electric bill if you have panels and the money you would have paid pays for the panels.
The grids demand to charge EV's is at night when business and factories don't have any demand.
Most of the factories are in China. You are a few decades late. It's data centers now. They still run at night. Stores are open too. People don't go to bed at sundown anymore.
This is a question just for Frenchyd to see if he is actually reading replies or just speed reading over them. True or False: The official racing color of Jaguar was British Racing Pink.
Apparently you haven't been keeping up. Manufacturing ever since ( actually before Covid ) American industry has been reshoring manufacturing. Or sending it to Mexico if it's real assembly line stuff.
China has had 15 wage raises since 2000 and the vast majority of their population is now at or nearing retirement age. That is due to the 1 child per family policy of the 1970's.
China's birth rate is .8 per woman. Without young people. A couple of years ago China came out and public ally admitted they had over counted their population by 100 million. Then this year they admitted They over counted school age children by millions. It is no longer the cheapest place for assembly.
All China has left anymore really is the facilities. That's not nothing because it represents trillions of dollar s worth of Chinese investment.
With an unstable leader and China's blustering about taking back Taiwan Almost every American industry is moving to restore supply chains closer . It's BRG.
In reply to frenchyd :
You obviously have not been on Amazon.
Yes, they make some stuff here in the USA. China's manufacturing output is almost double. Also, factories don't usually close up at 5pm, they run around the clock shifts.
Since we are talking about current day manufacturing, what relevance does their current birth rate have? I know they start working them young, but, damn.
Good job on the test question. I was sure you would skip over it. Pretty sure you missed it the first time through though, I should have put it in the middle of my post.
frenchyd said:Rates usually go up annually. That's why in Minnesota we are paid last years rate for power we provide this year @ 11 cents. So even if the rate is 10 cents last year they make a penny for something they didn't have to provide.
You have repeated this dozens of times, but it's NOT true.
Electric companies help subsidize the installation of "free solar" and the grid connections that make it possible. They DO have to spend money to assist with providing the electricity generated by privately owned solar systems.
And with inflation at 6.5% in 2022, that penny was consumed mostly in inflation.
Frenchyd, it takes time to bring the manufacturing back to the USA. You keep bringing up the china pay raises ( 15 times since 2000 ). It takes a SERIOUS commitment to build new factories, spec out new automation, hire qualified staff, and coordinate it all. The motivation to re-shore manufacturing is a recent development (due to Covid), but there hasn't been a ton of implementation yet (at least fully up an running)
We've discussed EV range several times in the last 92 pages, but I haven't seen it discussed in this light:
Once the charging infrastructure is built out across the country, I don't think range is going to be as big of a concern as it is today. If charging stations are as numerous as gas stations, and you can get a charge (for 130 miles) in about 10 minutes. That should be enough. When traveling in a long trip, the majority of people like to stop for bathroom breaks every two hours. 130 mile range would allow two hours of travel at 65 mph.
We're FAR from having that distribution of charging network.
frenchyd said:Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:SV reX said:frenchyd said:I think the less said the better.
The irony dripping from that comment is one of the funniest things I've ever read!
Frenchy seems to think my used minivan can be replaced with a Model X - which new costs ~$100K, so the real world is a place he only ponders from time to time... from a far distance. I don't know who can afford $100K vehicles they will fill with muddy crap, but I know for sure it ain't me. Hell... my house is barely worth more than $100K...
Never mind the fact a Model X will absolutely NOT fulfill the utility requirements my minivan can.
Right now, the closest van that meets my needs is an E-Transit, but unfortunately while the 126 mile range is adequate for the intended use (local deliveries and commercial use) it will not meet weekend trip needs. And it starts at about $52K for a pretty basic vehicle.
After watching Doug's latest video on the Kia EV GT, I am somewhat hoping Kia/Hyundai has an EV minivan in the development pipeline.
I hope I didn't say model X. I thought I said model Y, if I did I was wrong.
While Tesla does have a van in the pipeline I have no idea of when or how much it will cost.
There are several Chinese Vans I suspect would meet your needs at the price you'd like to pay. But of course they aren't allowed into America.
Pretty sure Kia/ Hyundai's EV's are made in China. As are Japanese brands.
Since the cargo capacity of a Model X is too small to meet my needs, how would the even smaller Model Y be better? Other than being cheaper?
The Kia Sedona is manufactured in South Korea, as is the EV6.
Out of curiosity, I looked up used Pacifica Hybrids and I could definitely see one of those as a potential replacement for my current van. While I would lose the Stow-n-Go, I have come to accept that.
In reply to Indy - Guy :
It's going to take a lot more charging stations than there are filling stations.
EV stops for fuel every 130 miles for a 10-minute fuel stop.
IC stops for fuel every 400 miles for a 1o-minute fill-up.
That's 3 times the number of stops. 3 times the amount of time filling up.
It's going to take an enormous number of stations to meet that need if IC engines are to be replaced with EVs. I don't think Musk or Charge America can supply that demand. It's going to have to be profitable enough that every station in the USA is willing to install and maintain the chargers.
They will also need to be installed in better places. Everything local to me is at malls or outlet centers hoping the customers will shop while their cars fill up. Those aren't the most convenient places to fuel up. Charging needs to be available where every fuel station now exists.
Toyman! said:In reply to Indy - Guy :
It's going to take a lot more charging stations than there are filling stations.
EV stops for fuel every 130 miles for a 10-minute fuel stop.
IC stops for fuel every 400 miles for a 1o-minute fill-up.
That's 3 times the number of stops. 3 times the amount of time filling up.
It's going to take an enormous number of stations to meet that need if IC engines are to be replaced with EVs. I don't think Musk or Charge America can supply that demand. It's going to have to be profitable enough that every station in the USA is willing to install and maintain the chargers.
They will also need to be installed in better places. Everything local to me is at malls or outlet centers hoping the customers will shop while their cars fill up. Those aren't the most convenient places to fuel up. Charging needs to be available where every fuel station now exists.
I referenced earlier we are still getting infrastructure in remote places of this country with 130 year old tech. How long is it going to take to get power and charge stations in even more places?
In reply to Toyman! :
I don't think we'll need that many charging stations. Public charging is used by people on long trips, and those that cannot charge where they park for long periods (either home or work). The data that I've seen indicates about 2/3 of Americans live in a place (like a single family home) where an EV could theoretically be charged pretty easily. Those people would have the ability to leave the house every day with a couple hundred miles of range, and are unlikely to need public charging very frequently. Imagine how many fewer people would be filling up their gas tanks each day if 2/3 of the population left their house with a couple hundred miles worth of fuel in the tank every morning.
We certainly need more widespread, intelligently located charging stations, and increased number of chargers at each station, but I don't think it's as dire as you seem to. It will require investment, but it doesn't have to happen by next week. We've got at least a couple of decades to implement.
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:frenchyd said:Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:SV reX said:frenchyd said:I think the less said the better.
The irony dripping from that comment is one of the funniest things I've ever read!
Frenchy seems to think my used minivan can be replaced with a Model X - which new costs ~$100K, so the real world is a place he only ponders from time to time... from a far distance. I don't know who can afford $100K vehicles they will fill with muddy crap, but I know for sure it ain't me. Hell... my house is barely worth more than $100K...
Never mind the fact a Model X will absolutely NOT fulfill the utility requirements my minivan can.
Right now, the closest van that meets my needs is an E-Transit, but unfortunately while the 126 mile range is adequate for the intended use (local deliveries and commercial use) it will not meet weekend trip needs. And it starts at about $52K for a pretty basic vehicle.
After watching Doug's latest video on the Kia EV GT, I am somewhat hoping Kia/Hyundai has an EV minivan in the development pipeline.
I hope I didn't say model X. I thought I said model Y, if I did I was wrong.
While Tesla does have a van in the pipeline I have no idea of when or how much it will cost.
There are several Chinese Vans I suspect would meet your needs at the price you'd like to pay. But of course they aren't allowed into America.
Pretty sure Kia/ Hyundai's EV's are made in China. As are Japanese brands.Since the cargo capacity of a Model X is too small to meet my needs, how would the even smaller Model Y be better? Other than being cheaper?
The Kia Sedona is manufactured in South Korea, as is the EV6.
Out of curiosity, I looked up used Pacifica Hybrids and I could definitely see one of those as a potential replacement for my current van. While I would lose the Stow-n-Go, I have come to accept that.
When you first mentioned what you were replacing. I thought it was room for people not cargo. The model Y has the optional 7 seats.
I apologize for misunderstanding your needs.
STM317 said:In reply to Toyman! :
I don't think we'll need that many charging stations. Public charging is used by people on long trips, and those that cannot charge where they park for long periods (either home or work). The data that I've seen indicates about 2/3 of Americans live in a place (like a single family home) where an EV could theoretically be charged pretty easily. Those people would have the ability to leave the house every day with a couple hundred miles of range, and are unlikely to need public charging very frequently. Imagine how many fewer people would be filling up their gas tanks each day if 2/3 of the population left their house with a couple hundred miles worth of fuel in the tank every morning.
We certainly need more widespread, intelligently located charging stations, and increased number of chargers at each station, but I don't think it's as dire as you seem to. It will require investment, but it doesn't have to happen by next week. We've got at least a couple of decades to implement.
Yeah we've been over this point a few hundred times but it gets lost in the noise. The vast majority don't ever need charging outside of their homes at night. If every ICE left the driveway half-full every day no matter what, you'd get close to seeing that difference. I've put 83K on the Bolt and before it, maybe 30K on the Leaf, and I've charged away from home out of necessity twice. Every other time it's just because it's there and free and why not.
In reply to STM317 :
True, but look at any interstate fueling station. They are never empty and frequently packed with travelers, most on long trips. Daily traffic on I95 is frequently 200000 to 300000 cars a day at any given location and the infrastructure needs to be available for the worst case, not the best.
tuna55 said:STM317 said:In reply to Toyman! :
I don't think we'll need that many charging stations. Public charging is used by people on long trips, and those that cannot charge where they park for long periods (either home or work). The data that I've seen indicates about 2/3 of Americans live in a place (like a single family home) where an EV could theoretically be charged pretty easily. Those people would have the ability to leave the house every day with a couple hundred miles of range, and are unlikely to need public charging very frequently. Imagine how many fewer people would be filling up their gas tanks each day if 2/3 of the population left their house with a couple hundred miles worth of fuel in the tank every morning.
We certainly need more widespread, intelligently located charging stations, and increased number of chargers at each station, but I don't think it's as dire as you seem to. It will require investment, but it doesn't have to happen by next week. We've got at least a couple of decades to implement.
Yeah we've been over this point a few hundred times but it gets lost in the noise. The vast majority don't ever need charging outside of their homes at night. If every ICE left the driveway half-full every day no matter what, you'd get close to seeing that difference. I've put 83K on the Bolt and before it, maybe 30K on the Leaf, and I've charged away from home out of necessity twice. Every other time it's just because it's there and free and why not.
Tuna, Serious question:
The EV isn't your only vehicle right? You have an ICE vehicel too? Yes? Do you use the exra range of the ICE for the trips that require it? What if an ICE wasn't an option? Would that increase your own demand on charging stations away from home?
Did you guys see this over in the Meme thread?
I'm bring it back up because I think the Buc-ee's model would work GREAT for interstate EV charging: Get your patrons to spend a LOT more time at your stop than the traditional gas refueling requires.
If Buc-ee's isn't already adding charging stations, they're missing a HUGE opportunity.
STM317 said:In reply to Toyman! :
I don't think we'll need that many charging stations. Public charging is used by people on long trips, and those that cannot charge where they park for long periods (either home or work). The data that I've seen indicates about 2/3 of Americans live in a place (like a single family home) where an EV could theoretically be charged pretty easily. Those people would have the ability to leave the house every day with a couple hundred miles of range, and are unlikely to need public charging very frequently. Imagine how many fewer people would be filling up their gas tanks each day if 2/3 of the population left their house with a couple hundred miles worth of fuel in the tank every morning.
We certainly need more widespread, intelligently located charging stations, and increased number of chargers at each station, but I don't think it's as dire as you seem to. It will require investment, but it doesn't have to happen by next week. We've got at least a couple of decades to implement.
There are very few cars with less than 200+ miles range. Some with over 400 miles range and according to one site the coming Tesla cyber truck ( no not the semi ) with have a 500 mile range in the top truck. ( I think it mentioned 430 miles fully loaded. But nothing about pulling a garage behind it).
PLUS even ICE vehicles aren't filled up every day. I try to get 2 weeks out of my pickup. How often do you fill your car?
Second point, why wouldn't a gas station put chargers in? They make a nickle a gallon now barely enough to cover their overhead. Their profit is from inside sales. Sandwiches, pop candy etc.
In reply to Toyman! :
Yep. Stations along interstates will need to be a large piece of the puzzle. If you look at maps of current chargers you can see that they prioritize placement along high traffic routes:
Tesla Supercharger network:
The icons get jumbled up along the coasts which makes it harder, but you can pretty clearly see the strategy in Big Sky country, or if we zoom in to your part of the country:
They'll need to increase the number of charging stations and grow the number of chargers at each station to handle more throughput, but the logic seems to make sense for the most part.
Toyman! said:In reply to Indy - Guy :
It's going to take a lot more charging stations than there are filling stations.
EV stops for fuel every 130 miles for a 10-minute fuel stop.
IC stops for fuel every 400 miles for a 1o-minute fill-up.
That's 3 times the number of stops. 3 times the amount of time filling up.
It's going to take an enormous number of stations to meet that need if IC engines are to be replaced with EVs. I don't think Musk or Charge America can supply that demand. It's going to have to be profitable enough that every station in the USA is willing to install and maintain the chargers.
They will also need to be installed in better places. Everything local to me is at malls or outlet centers hoping the customers will shop while their cars fill up. Those aren't the most convenient places to fuel up. Charging needs to be available where every fuel station now exists.
Toyman.
Do you fill your car every day? You would with an EV when you get home.
leave in the morning with a full Tank".
In reply to frenchyd :
and it would take 43 years to make that money back, where if I invested it I'd have over $100k. So..... I thought you liked money?
Indy - Guy said:tuna55 said:STM317 said:In reply to Toyman! :
I don't think we'll need that many charging stations. Public charging is used by people on long trips, and those that cannot charge where they park for long periods (either home or work). The data that I've seen indicates about 2/3 of Americans live in a place (like a single family home) where an EV could theoretically be charged pretty easily. Those people would have the ability to leave the house every day with a couple hundred miles of range, and are unlikely to need public charging very frequently. Imagine how many fewer people would be filling up their gas tanks each day if 2/3 of the population left their house with a couple hundred miles worth of fuel in the tank every morning.
We certainly need more widespread, intelligently located charging stations, and increased number of chargers at each station, but I don't think it's as dire as you seem to. It will require investment, but it doesn't have to happen by next week. We've got at least a couple of decades to implement.
Yeah we've been over this point a few hundred times but it gets lost in the noise. The vast majority don't ever need charging outside of their homes at night. If every ICE left the driveway half-full every day no matter what, you'd get close to seeing that difference. I've put 83K on the Bolt and before it, maybe 30K on the Leaf, and I've charged away from home out of necessity twice. Every other time it's just because it's there and free and why not.
Tuna, Serious question:
The EV isn't your only vehicle right? You have an ICE vehicel too? Yes? Do you use the exra range of the ICE for the trips that require it? What if an ICE wasn't an option? Would that increase your own demand on charging stations away from home?
Yes I have a Pacifica. Primarily I have a Pacifica because I have four kids and there does not currently exist a practical EV with that people carrying capacity yet, though several are seemingly close.
I do not use the Pacifica for its added range with the following exceptions:
Atlanta trips to the doctor (320 mile round trip). While chargers exist in Atlanta, the Bolt is a slow charging vehicle, perhaps its only issue. If it were Tesla-fast (or EV6, Ioniq, etc fast), I would not use the Pacifica for this.
Long road trips. Since 2016 we have taken four major road trips. Each trip between 2-3 weeks and around 3-4 Kmiles total. If an EV with sufficient people carrying ability and the Tesla charging network existed (though I would be extremely hesitant to purchase any Tesla at this point), I would not use the Pacifica for this either.
Day trips to random places. We travel home to Syracuse once every few years. It's 1,000 miles one way or so. We occasionally travel to the beach, maybe 2x per year, and that's probably an average of 300 miles.
All told, the above, on average, would add 10-20 some additional annual charges from my current <1.
So me, as a hypothetical two EV household would be responsible for 20 destination charges not at night in my own driveway per year. We drive way more than the national average. Currently we get gasoline for the Pacifica more than once per week, so let's say 65 fill-ups per year.
Right now today with real money it makes absolute financial sense to own an EV if you own more than one vehicle and are able to charge at your residence or workplace with typical energy costs for fuel and electricity in the US.
Complete honest unvarnished truth from a guy with over 100K on real affordable EVs in the real world.
Indy - Guy said:Frenchyd, it takes time to bring the manufacturing back to the USA. You keep bringing up the china pay raises ( 15 times since 2000 ). It takes a SERIOUS commitment to build new factories, spec out new automation, hire qualified staff, and coordinate it all. The motivation to re-shore manufacturing is a recent development (due to Covid), but there hasn't been a ton of implementation yet (at least fully up an running)
I am not arguing with that at all! In fact that's why I mentioned Trillions of dollars.
Some will be in partnership with Mexico and there we might induce them to build some of that infrastructure .
The advantage for industry is a shorter more efficient transportation network. Railroads are cheaper than cargo ships. And America is blessed with a lot of navigable rivers. More than any country on earth . That is even cheaper to transport goods. 1/ 12th the cost.
The trouble is the days of nearly interest free loans are over. It was going to happen as the babyboomers are in Retirement and will be drawing down their retirement money
That will increase demand for workers, and increase demand for money, both of which will be inflationary.
Boost_Crazy said:In reply to frenchyd :
You obviously have not been on Amazon.
Yes, they make some stuff here in the USA. China's manufacturing output is almost double. Also, factories don't usually close up at 5pm, they run around the clock shifts.
Since we are talking about current day manufacturing, what relevance does their current birth rate have? I know they start working them young, but, damn.
Good job on the test question. I was sure you would skip over it. Pretty sure you missed it the first time through though, I should have put it in the middle of my post.
Here is the deal. Are you aware that Japan is a rapidly aging country? They aren't making as much stuff there as they used to. The age bulge is now well over 50. Without a lot of birthrate to offset the elderly. It's called outsourcing. Now Japan builds where they sell. Simply because they no longer have the work force to meet demand.
Well China is worse. Far worse. They had I child per family for over 50 years now. Today the birth rate is less than .8 per woman. And with a low percentage of women to men. China isn't meeting even 50% of the numbers to sustain their population.
3 years ago China admitted they didn't have 1.4 billion people they had over counted by 100 million.
Then last year they admitted over counting children by 10's of millions.
This in spite of eliminating the 1 child per family and providing incentives for women to have children. The birth rate continues to drop.
Then the Chinese chairman who has been in power for over 15 years so far started going after others who could replace him. And 5 years later he went after anybody who disagreed with his policies. And the last 5 years filling those jobs with nothing but Yes men.
That's why we had the ballon incident, why officials were out sanitizing runways to prevent Covid.
Nobody in China wants to bring him news now. For fear he will shoot the messenger.
That could be why China is 51 Trillion in debt ( I've heard much higher numbers ) why the high speed rail is a colossal failure.
Don't forget. 70% of the material needed For Production is imported. And 80% of the Food. And 75% of the oil needed is 7,000 miles away through narrow straights that India could easily cut off. Or Iran/ Saudi Arabia could cut off.
Looking at issues like that there is a big movement to reshoring a Lot of China's production back to the states.
Here's some things to think about and note this is very loose math:
We routinely have 40,000 cars a day arriving in Las Vegas from Southern California.
The hotel with the most charging stations currently has 40 of them..................at a Hotel with 2,200 rooms. 25% of those rooms will be people who drove to Vegas. So 550 cars drove......................if EVs get up to 50% that's 225 cars a day at 40 charging stations. You have 960 hrs worth of available charge time for 225 cars, which sounds good but realistically it won't be enough. Why? because most people will be in the casino and that cars won't be rotating out that quickly............my guess would be every 90-120 minutes but I'm sure many will be sitting there for hours.
Most Hotels only have 5-10 so the example above is best case.
Las Vegas is terrible at planning and tends to only do things because they think they can make easy money..........we will lag behind on infrastructure..............we always have.
9-10 million people drive here every year from SoCal. So the question is how many other tourist towns are not set up for the potential huge increase in need?
The above problem/scenario is based on the assumption that EVs will reach 50%. Which as the title says I don't see happening.
Tuna's case is why the numbers may well get up to 25% EVs on the road by 2035 or 2040.
Americans do a lot of what if thinking. The fact that they might only do one road trip a year will still likely influence their thinking to a large degree against EVs.
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