So, Harbor Freight tools and lots of auto parts are suddenly going to cost a lot more. Plans?

I'm probably going to suck it up and do the plugs on my 2017 Kia Sedona myself. I was going to pay my local shop $450 to do it, but the economics don't make sense anymore. You have to yank the intake to do the back plugs. It will probably take me 2 days to do it and I'm nervous as heck about yanking original plugs with 120k on them. The nightmare scenario is that they are seized in the head. Right now the van runs good, but I know the plugs are overdue.

I'm good on tools but not supplies, so we'll see how bad the prices rise for brake cleaner, oil, and filters.

I'm probably going to offer up my skills and tools to our broader friend group to help take the edge off their expenses. Probably going to be doing more "brake job play dates" where the kids play in the yard while the adults turn wrenches.

My last resort will be hitting the local Pull-A-Part for used parts if new prices get crazy. But that isn't even a guarantee around here. Back during COVID the Buford Highway PaP looked like a dystopian wasteland the cars were picked over so hard. If it was useful, it was gone.

What puzzles me about this whole subject is that I have to believe somebody has a reasonably accurate model/simulation of US/worldwide trade.  The data for building such a thing is in the public domain.  We can track the moves of all the players involved since 1945.  This ought to be a case of plugging the tariff numbers into a calculation and getting a reasonably close indication of likely outcomes if you run the simulation 10,000 times.  

Or am I being wildly naive?

NOHOME said:

In reply to earlybroncoguy1 :

Chances are you will just suck it up same as Canadian car hobby people. Canadians have always had a dollar that is 30% lower than USd, cross-border shipping fees and 13% sales tax; so if I see a part advertised for $100 I know it is more like $200 Cnd by the time I get it.... and yet the hobby goes on. Welcome to our world.

Exactly,I've actually had Americans say to me just buy the part/tool/whatever from the States where its cheaper.

 Sure,let me use your US currency then lol.

In reply to slefain :

I did the plugs on the Sedona we had back in 2020. It was a 2010 model with about 110k miles.

In my case it wasn't too bad of a job. I believe it took a couple evenings to do it, but that was a parts problem.

The plugs were plated, so no issues with them being seize to the head.  Locating all the brackets to remove the upper plenum required a few YouTube videos and patience. 

The problem I ran into was there were some mid year changes (even the dealer had trouble looking up the oil filters) that delayed me due to the wrong intake gaskets. I finally gave up trying to locate them and ended up reusing the original rubber seals and didn't have any leaks. 

In reply to kevlarcorolla (and NOHOME) :

The Canadian dollar isn't always 30% lower than the US. There have been times in the past 15 years when it's actually been worth more than the US buck. The problem is that bringing stuff across an international border involves paperwork and cost even without tariffs, and taxes are a thing in just about every state and province. Canadians may not be aware, but Americans now have to pay sales tax on online purchases in most cases - so that $100 item is going to cost more than $100 in the US as well.

Interestingly, Canadians don't offer to pay more when they have bigger dollars but they always want a discount when the exchange rate is bad :)

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Americans have always had to pay sales tax on online purchases, it's just that they let it slide until recently.

I've always taken the US dollar at par. As a favour to my customers.

maschinenbau said:

The Bendpak 2-post lift I just bought last month is now exactly $2,000 more expensive on their website. I'm not good at stocks but I'm glad I timed this one right.

https://www.bendpak.com/car-lifts/two-post-lifts/10ap-standard/

Dang it.  The scissor lift I wanted is $500 more.  I can't blame the tarrifs on that.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Americans have always had to pay sales tax on online purchases, it's just that they let it slide until recently.

Not really, physical nexus was required. Now it's just economic. And it's a royal pain in the behind. Having to deal with the Wayfair decision costs us tens of thousands a year. At least all the tariffs only apply at the national borders and not the state/city/region/county level!

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Correct,but we pay far higher taxes(15% on everything on the east coast) and UPS especially rape and pilliage with their fees to deliver/import.

 The point was it costs us far more to take part in motorsports even when the dollar was at par.

With the way things are going our dollar will continue to rise so bring on the chaos.

 On the other side of the coin I've had Americans want to haggle even when its a smokin' deal in US funds.

Keith Tanner said:

In reply to 93gsxturbo :

Assuming you ponied up for the Exie USA and not the regular Exie made in Vietnam, that is.

So, a frame made in the USA out of Chinese CF (that's where about 50% of the world supply comes from) and with Japanese- branded Chinese components, right? Or maybe the Taiwanese Sram components. It's a global economy. 

Of course I got the Exie USA!  With as many I9 components and wolf tooth bling I could fit on it.  Fox shocks made in USA...

Sadly there is no good USA source of components.  XX1 AXS will have to do.  

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Actually, Massachusetts expects you to report purchases that didn't have sales tax paid so tax can be paid to the state. I'm sure everyone accurately reports those purchases. 
 

The proximity to NH (which doesn't have sales tax) probably contributed to Massachusetts expecting residents to have purchases made without taxes paid long before online shopping. 

Keith Tanner said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Americans have always had to pay sales tax on online purchases, it's just that they let it slide until recently.

Not really, physical nexus was required. Now it's just economic. And it's a royal pain in the behind. Having to deal with the Wayfair decision costs us tens of thousands a year. At least all the tariffs only apply at the national borders and not the state/city/region/county level!

It may be state dependent, Ohio law is (and generally always has been) that you have to report all out of state purchases on your annual income tax so that sales tax may be assessed, if it wasn't collected at point of sale.  Most states have laws similar to this.  (The only exclusion is if you purchased it for use OUT of state - what happens in Michigan stays in Michigan)  This goes back to when you mailed an order sheet and a check to JC Whitney or Performance Auto Warehouse to get your car parts fix 

It's hard to prove a negative, so this reporting was pretty much voluntary.

I did used to tally up my out of state purchases, because of course I did.

"Um, It Turns Out No One at the Ports Is Collecting Trump’s Tariffs"

https://newrepublic.com/post/193930/ports-not-collecting-trump-tariffs-glitch

I know prices are up on impacted good, but not to the extent I would have expected, though I'm not also doing a lot of searching for that information.  Perhaps this is why the impact hasn't been that bad yet? 

I have some other thoughts on this which I'll keep to myself because I think they should be pretty obvious to anyone paying attention.

ShawnG said:

Not for long.

Remember what happened to prices on used stuff when "The Madness" happened in 2020?

If a new welder was $2k and now it's $4k. Guess what my used welder is going to cost you?

This will affect everything. Don't worry.

Nah. I totally get it. Used prices on most goods will rise as well. I definitely remember. 

That said, there will still be deals to be had. Someone may not want to put in the effort to get the max dollar amount or may not be aware of the market change that has occurred. It'll take effort but would be worth it to save the last time. I'm saying this after shopping for my last car purchase for years. I'm sure you can relate. Patience! 

stroker said:

What puzzles me about this whole subject is that I have to believe somebody has a reasonably accurate model/simulation of US/worldwide trade.  The data for building such a thing is in the public domain.  We can track the moves of all the players involved since 1945.  This ought to be a case of plugging the tariff numbers into a calculation and getting a reasonably close indication of likely outcomes if you run the simulation 10,000 times.  

 

Or am I being wildly naive?

You are not being naive. The data is out there. There's a company that sells software that is able to predict tariffs, quantify them, and offer alternatives around said tariff's. 

Mastering Tariffs with Palantir

Then consider that the current administrations calculation used to determine tariffs was overly simplistic and also presented in a way to make it seem more complex and alternatively harder to determine. 

How to read the White House's tariff formula

The goals outlined justifying this policy will not be achieved this way. 

In reply to pres589 (djronnebaum) :

A smart importer will be charging extra to cover tariffs, under the assumption that the mistake will be uncovered and they will have to pay it retroactively.

In reply to Xceler8x :

of course it's complicated, they put math letters in there!

I have no problem paying slightly more for goods if that means they aren't being made by a child in china. It's unfortunate that prices may go up for us. But I am on board of no longer supporting child slavery 

In reply to kb58 :

Walmart does not pay for any product until after it is sold. There whole business model is built on being "fronted". They'll be just fine 

In reply to kb58 :

Walmart does not pay for any product until after it is sold. There whole business model is built on being "fronted". They'll be just fine 

Mattk said:

In reply to kb58 :

Walmart does not pay for any product until after it is sold. There whole business model is built on being "fronted". They'll be just fine 

No one will eat a 145 per cent tariff except the end user.  Walmart will choose to not buy(doubtful) or renegotiate a new price including the tariff. And the consumer will choose to buy or not buy. But the manufacturer or distributor will not pay. 

Mattk said:

I have no problem paying slightly more for goods if that means they aren't being made by a child in china. It's unfortunate that prices may go up for us. But I am on board of no longer supporting child slavery 

I completely understand and agree, but the issue is "slightly." The current price for undershirts at Walmart is $20 for a pack of six. This domestic manufacturer sells a pack of four at $130-150: https://thompsontee.com/packs/#mens.

Another example, a mobile workbench from Harbor Freight is $350. A US-made unit (of equal low quality) may be (a total guess) $1,000. With our higher standards of living, safety, and health coverage, I think that's a reasonable guess. It's a guess because a quick Google search didn't find any similar domestic-made workbenches. So a domestic manufacturer starts making them - how many people are going to buy them? Some, yes, but enough to stay in business? I still contend that it's going to be very difficult to compete against any country where expenses are magnitudes less than here.

In reply to kb58 :

Without going too much into a rant, business managers have been riding a wave for the past 40 or so years of outsourcing production to drive costs down so that the general masses don't realize how much less and less money they are making compared to their parents.  Minimum wage today is like a quarter of what it was in the late 60s adjusted for inflation, people accepted this as long as they can get their six-pack of shirts for two or three hours' work.

All this is, is the persistent driving down of wages with "bread and circuses" to keep people complacent starting to come home to roost.

Making more things in the US *will* make things cost more, but wages will also have to increase for business owners to compete with other companies in order to lure labor to their own company.  

40 years ago, 2 cars in the garage, a boat, an RV and a motorcycle plus a vacation to somewhere sunny every year wasn't "normal"

People have become accustomed to cheap luxury now.