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Knurled
Knurled MegaDork
6/1/16 7:02 p.m.
Robbie wrote: Even folks like Confucius and Shakespeare have quotes similar to "only the fool calls himself wise, while the wise man knows himself a fool", which is making a similar observation.

"So-crates. 'True knowledge is in knowing that you know nothing'."

"That's US, dude!"

And I think both the research and my observations agree with you that the loudest people are generally the wrongest (or, at least, the earliest in their quest to become wise and feel like a fool).

I could flounder so hard. SO hard.

But with all the weird crap that I have to work with at work, a mantra I have is "Why is it that every time I learn something new, I feel dumb?"

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy PowerDork
6/1/16 7:42 p.m.

Nobody has pointed out the real production problem here. Takata, and all the other airbag builders, are not only building airbags for 14 million (or whatever) new cars this year, but they also have to built many more millions to fill the huge backlog created by the recall. By the end of this, Takata will no longer exist, or it will be under new ownership- they are building as many replacements as they can, and they are paying other manufacturers to build more, as they don't have the capacity to build as many as are needed.

A well run company just can't build twice as much stuff as they did last year. If they can, they were not well run.

Knurled
Knurled MegaDork
6/1/16 7:52 p.m.

In reply to Streetwiseguy:

Exactly. If they had the capacity to suddenly create not only current demand, but enough demand to cover their entire production from the previous ten years or so... they would have a LOT of excess capacity, which is wasteful.

Whatever company you work for, imagine suddenly doing ten times as much stuff as you currently do, with your current staff. Not happening. Now imagine if you had the staff to do ten times what you currently do, at your current level. Not going to have happened.

Where I work, we have five employees, six if you count the business owner. We have almost enough people to do our normal work load. There is absolutely no way we can handle more work than we do right now without hiring more people and opening more facilities. And if we were expected to double/triple our capacity for free, the answer would be "Yeah, we'll get right on that." Economic realities are harsh.

logdog
logdog SuperDork
6/1/16 8:00 p.m.
Knurled wrote: "So-crates. 'True knowledge is in knowing that you know nothing'." "That's US, dude!"

Fun fact - I used to be in a band called "Socrates Johnson"

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy PowerDork
6/1/16 9:59 p.m.

I forgot this story, told to me by the parts manager at the local Honda store. Guy bought a crashed Accord from salvage, and had to replace the airbag. Honda couldn't, or wouldn't sell him the updated bag- he had to buy the recalled one and then wait for the recall order to get the proper one.

Apexcarver
Apexcarver PowerDork
6/2/16 10:05 a.m.

First off, for those that want to find out if their car is recalled, www.safercar.gov The government tracks recalls. Your taxes at work. Use it, you can also make complaints there if your car has a safety problem.

Secondly, they are seeing increasing failure as the airbags age. So the risk is (apparently) really low for the first few years. I think it was also something that moisture affected.

As far as total recall for 13 in 30 million, if a safety system is malfunctioning turning it into a projectile launcher, I think it makes sense. If it was more of a fizzle and not work thing, it might not make sense.

With how big the recalls are getting, they can't make 30 million units overnight, so some people are going to have to wait. Yup, it sucks, but its reality.

06HHR
06HHR HalfDork
6/2/16 10:30 a.m.

Nothing to add except I have a passenger side airbag for a 2006-11 Honda Civic that I don't know what to do with. I don't need it anymore and I would really rather not sell something that may be deadly to the buyer if it's used.

EvanB
EvanB UltimaDork
6/2/16 10:48 a.m.

In reply to 06HHR:

Set it face down and blow it from a safe distance. Better yet, find a second one and tape them face-to-face before blowing at the same time.

revrico
revrico HalfDork
6/2/16 11:02 a.m.

I mentioned the 13 out of 30million based on a story I'd read taking about it. And yea, sure, that's a huge back log, but realistically, how many of those affected cars are still on the road with the stock airbags? Between totals, racers, repo especially, is the real number affected still 30 million?

I don't know solid facts like accidents per year, deployments per year, even all the brand's involved, but knowing how the world economy has been the last ten years on top of average accident figures, it would seem to me that the number is a lot lower than that to be made up.

Still, as lean as everything needs to run to keep costs down and bonuses up, filling that back gap and keeping up with current demand is going to take a lot of work from multiple sources.

And to think, people called me crazy for ripping out my airbags because I find them dangerous(i had a bad experience as a kid when one deployed). Guess I wasn't entirely wrong.

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/2/16 11:06 a.m.

In reply to revrico:

The 30 million are cars still registered to drive, so it's already the reduced amount.

revrico
revrico HalfDork
6/2/16 11:08 a.m.

In reply to Javelin:

OK, i didn't know if they were just going on production numbers or active registrations.

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/2/16 11:10 a.m.

In reply to revrico:

All recalls are based off of active registrations, the manufacturers get the information directly from all of the state licensing offices. That's how they know to mail you the letter, too.

Furious_E
Furious_E HalfDork
6/2/16 11:40 a.m.
revrico wrote: Still, as lean as everything needs to run to keep costs down, doors open, and jobs in the US, filling that back gap and keeping up with current demand is going to take a lot of work from multiple sources.

FTFY

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/2/16 3:34 p.m.

Everything you've ever wanted to know about airbags: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-02/sixty-million-car-bombs-inside-takata-s-air-bag-crisis

It's a fantastic read that will leave you seeing red. Highly recommended.

former520
former520 Reader
6/2/16 6:07 p.m.
Javelin wrote: Everything you've ever wanted to know about airbags: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-02/sixty-million-car-bombs-inside-takata-s-air-bag-crisis It's a fantastic read that will leave you seeing red. Highly recommended.

I just finished reading this and came to post up a link as well. Extremely well done with lots of timeline and facts.

Most surprising, they are still putting the defective bags in cars right now. They figure they have 7 years before they are dangerous and hoping to have the bags out in 3 years.

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/2/16 7:22 p.m.

In reply to former520:

That's the really crazy part to me. They can easily make the (slightly) less defective ammonium nitrate with desiccant version, but they won't.

pjbgravely
pjbgravely Reader
6/2/16 8:00 p.m.

Automobile Manufacturers only care about one thing: Making money. Anything that stops or reduces the money they will make will not be done, unless they are forced. The love of money is the root of all evil.

850Combat
850Combat Reader
6/2/16 8:11 p.m.

Considering that so many years worth production / installation of these airbags are being replaced currently, manufacturing capacity doesn't appear to be the problem on the face of it.

foxtrapper
foxtrapper UltimaDork
6/3/16 5:23 a.m.
Apexcarver wrote: First off, for those that want to find out if their car is recalled, www.safercar.gov The government tracks recalls.

safercar.gov is remarkably wrong and out of date, particularly with regards to the Takata airbag recall. They still don't list my car and it was added months ago.

foxtrapper
foxtrapper UltimaDork
6/3/16 5:47 a.m.
Javelin wrote: Everything you've ever wanted to know about airbags: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-02/sixty-million-car-bombs-inside-takata-s-air-bag-crisis It's a fantastic read that will leave you seeing red. Highly recommended.

It's not a bad article, but I'm surprised at a few things it ignored.

  1. Early on in the recall, replacement airbags going into Toyotas and perhaps Hondas were recycled recalled units. So a number of those vehicles were re-recalled. A number of those early replacement airbags not recycled were still of the same ammonium nitrate igniter. So many of those vehicles will be re-recalled. To really piss owners off, some of the re-recalled vehicles that had used and removed airbags installed and that were re-recalled had the defective airbags installed. So they will be re-re-recalled.

  2. It's actually not known with certainty what cars had Takata airbags installed. My car as an example is being recalled not because it had a Takata airbag in it, but because the parent maker, GM, cannot say with certainty that it did not have a Takata airbag. While Takata was essentially the sole supplier to the likes of Honda, they were just one of several suppliers to the likes of GM. So a given type of GM car may have one of several airbags installed in it, depending on which part bin was being used at that moment.

  3. The focus so far has been on steering wheel airbags only. All other airbags are still being ignored. Never mind that ammomium nitrate has been used as the igniter on passenger side airbags, and perhaps side airbags. There was a little mention of this a few months ago, but it has since gone away.

Coldsnap
Coldsnap Dork
6/3/16 12:17 p.m.

If I buy a Honda crv that falls under the recall will Honda swap out the airbag? I dont really care but my girlfriend will occaisionanlly drive it and I'm scared of her father killing me if the airbag went off.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
6/3/16 12:28 p.m.
Javelin wrote: In reply to revrico: All recalls are based off of active registrations, the manufacturers get the information directly from all of the state licensing offices. That's how they know to mail you the letter, too.

I seriously doubt that. Very seriously.

I just received a recall from Ford for the Mustang GT I used to own.

I haven't owned it in more than 3 years.

06HHR
06HHR HalfDork
6/3/16 12:45 p.m.
z31maniac wrote:
Javelin wrote: In reply to revrico: All recalls are based off of active registrations, the manufacturers get the information directly from all of the state licensing offices. That's how they know to mail you the letter, too.
I seriously doubt that. Very seriously. I just received a recall from Ford for the Mustang GT I used to own. I haven't owned it in more than 3 years.

I'd like to know what the use as well. It certainly isn't active registrations. I received a notice from GM for the ignition switch recall for my 2006 HHR. I sold that car back in 2011. I still get offers from local dealers to bring it to trade, and from extended warranty companies. I imagine for the manufacturer they use service records more than anything, probably save them the expense and possible privacy issues that could arise with requesting access to active state vehicle registrations.

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/3/16 12:45 p.m.
z31maniac wrote:
Javelin wrote: In reply to revrico: All recalls are based off of active registrations, the manufacturers get the information directly from all of the state licensing offices. That's how they know to mail you the letter, too.
I seriously doubt that. Very seriously. I just received a recall from Ford for the Mustang GT I used to own. I haven't owned it in more than 3 years.

You're surprised that DMV records are wrong?!?

Javelin
Javelin MegaDork
6/3/16 12:52 p.m.

From NHTSA.gov:

Manufacturers are obligated to attempt to notify owners of recalled products. For vehicles, that means manufacturers merge their own vehicle purchase records with current State vehicle registration information.
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