Javelin said:Javelin said:Zombie thread alert!
On 7/6/2012 when this thread was made, TSLA was worth $30.99/share. An investment of $1,000 would have netted you ~32.2685 shares. Today (2/3/2020) TSLA closed at $780.00/share, netting your $1,000 from 8 years ago $25,169.41.
Too bad I only had $100 to spare 8 years ago. Glad I bought TSLA though. Still no mother-berking dividends!
Up again! $930 and climbing!
...Aaaaaaand $715 and falling. There's no investing like speculative investing.
In reply to Driven5 :
Precisely. Buy stock in a company that you believe is going to grow over the long haul and forget you own it until retirement.
Apparently a lot of people think they know a lot of things.
I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
I will give you one small snippet....
A lot of car guys will swear that you can't run a 10 second 1/4 mile for $2000 too. That makes it no less true. They won't even believe it after being shown in some cases.
I'm almost tempted to never post here again actually. Sharing uncomfortable information people aren't ready to receive is difficult. I actually hate it. (I hate it at work when I have to tell people their awesome new oil field is a giant nothing burger. I'd much rather give them the awesome it's better than you think news. I get to do both all too often.) I think we may have decades before the economy fails catastrophically again, but it will fail. I cannot predict when. But I have figured out the it's too late to get ready point. It's uncomfortable to discuss though. I worry for my kids, and hopefully I live to have a lot of fun with grandkids. I have figured out the it's too late point on the economy though.... again not comfortable to discuss.
I do know something about the present that is also very uncomfortable. The information on this too is also public, but stays well out of sight of the average person. The current coronavirus is much worse than we are being told. I would get ready and prepare for it (read, study, prepare). I made my wife start planning today for the difficult times that may come soon.
See the problem we have as people with expensive hobbies is our lives our too good. Our lives are so good we aren't willing to discuss how fragile society really is or plan for it. We live in an age and place of unprecedented wealth and comfort. Thinking it'll never change is easy, and comfortable. Discussing and planning for disaster, not fun. Think Hurricane Katrina for the economy. I bet you don't even have a levee.....
I went too long again.... be prepared or not. I just don't think people I know and love should suffer because I was too comfortable, lazy and stupid to plan ahead. And I will freely admit, I've probably been too lazy..... and comfortable.
We middle class car hobby Americans.... love comfort.
In reply to AnthonyGS :
Totally argee about being prepared. However, The Corona Virus scare is just that. I call it the Virus of the year. The Media blows everything out of propulsion. Americans should be more concerned with the Flu more than the Corona Virus.
In reply to AnthonyGS :
It's really easy to get wrapped up in your head and get convinced that the world ending crisis is right around the corner. You then go read all this doom and gloom and confirmation bias takes over and you're now convinced that you've got the inside scoop and the world is hanging on by a thread. But read some history and think what it was really like to live through those events. You think people weren't terrified when millions of people dropped dead from the Spanish flu? You think it didn't feel like the end of the world when there were soup lines full of formerly middle class Americans? There's always something bad just over the horizon and it's always so much scarier feeling than the frankly horrendous stuff in our rear view mirror. Yes there will be uncomfortable times ahead but don't fool yourself into thinking that there weren't uncomfortable times in the past or like you have some unique genius insight into the only way to survive it. People are smart, people adapt, and while you've been making your plans so has every one of the other billions of people on the planet. Corona virus is just the latest bogeyman. It's bad yes but it's not Captain Trips. It's not going to kill off the human race. And the US dollar is not going to zero and a pile of scrap in a shed somewhere isn't a hedge against future financial problems.
In reply to AnthonyGS :
I'm a retired Coast Guardsman and a current flood control zone district commissioner with a levee on a river that's affected by Mr. St. Helen's, 3 dikes, a earthen detention structure, and 11 de-watering pumps. We've had three flood warnings this year already. I hear you loud and clear on disasters local and worldwide. I lived through Andrew and Floyd. I try to have all my ducks in a row for my family as much as I can.
All that being said, the hobbies are what keeps me sane. I need something ultimately trivial to focus on so I don't start feeling like we're all doomed all the time.
In reply to Javelin :
Seems like he's not just suggesting that a natural disaster might be a really bad thing, he's suggesting that an economic/financial disaster is coming and we all need to be as prepared for that as we can. You build levees to protect yourself from floods, but you should have personal financial levees to do the same thing during an economic disaster, and perhaps even physical measures to care for yourself/family in the event of a societal breakdown. At least that's the gist that I got from it. Maybe that's what you were saying too and I just didn't interpret your post properly though.
dculberson said:In reply to AnthonyGS :
It's bad yes but it's not Captain Trips.
Wow it was great to see this expression (noun?) after so many years! Thanks for making my day. I have read The Stand at least twice and I'm going to read it again now. The movie(s) don't do it justice. I wonder how many people will recognize the reference?
In reply to STM317 :
Yes, I think that's his gist and that's what I was getting at as well with my "ducks in a row" comment. I try to have everything paid for (except the house), a garage full of tools, multiple income streams, and reserves of stuff and other investments besides currency. I grow a garden every year as well. I weathered the great recession and I'm better set up to get through another one.
Fear defeats more people than any other one thing in the world.
Driven5 said:Fear defeats more people than any other one thing in the world.
RIGHT berkeleyING ON. Fear is the mind killer.
In reply to Sparkydog :
I'm glad you recognized the reference and enjoyed it! Agreed the book is awesome.
AnthonyGS said:I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
It is my experience that people that like to fall back on "brutal honesty" can give it but can't receive it. And even when giving it are often cherry picking. Do you think you can you receive it?
I always find that brutal honesty is just like a sledgehammer- very effective, but only in a small handful of scenarios. And typically breaks things.
dculberson said:In reply to AnthonyGS :
It's bad yes but it's not Captain Trips. It's not going to kill off the human race. And the US dollar is not going to zero and a pile of scrap in a shed somewhere isn't a hedge against future financial problems.
Randall Flagg wants you to invest in gold
or would he be a libertarian bitcoin miner
Well what say you all now? For the record, I was never afraid or in fear. Ask my wife. Ask one of the members who just picked up a car from me on Saturday if I seemed afraid. I was warning people I care about a bit, that things are far more fragile than anyone is telling you. I think everyone needs to be prepared for that. My wife works in the hotel business and is now on 60 days furlough. She will have about 25% of her normal income for the next 60 days. Can we handle it? Yes we can. Her sales pod got hit to the tune of 148 out of 160 on furlough due to a panic.
I generally don't panic. I saw enough problems that happened on a submarine to know, I put out the fire, etc. Others panic.
I'm one of those strange dudes that can look at a problem and run multiple scenarios in my head very rapidly to see how things will play out. I'm also pretty dang good at math, and can do it in my head fairly easily. My 6 year old kiddo is already adding 3 digit numbers and 4 digit numbers easily. She is way ahead in math.
I took what I learned in nuclear power, realized the same equations apply to biology and did some quick algebra on this virus.
I also know the basic fundamentals of the markets are broken due to the manipulation by the national banks.
Silver bullion is at the lowest it has been in over a decade. Try to buy some though, because you cannot. If you do find it for sale, it will be way higher than the current price. The supply is gone, demand is at all time highs, and the price is low. This violates every economic theory ever contrived. Why did this happen? Easy, paper silver and gold traded on the exchange can be manipulated by the Fed, which can literally create money from thin air. They can't create physical bullion though.
Tesla is in the same boat. It's a great technology company. Elon Musk is a true visionary and is capable of delivering on his visions. His company just doesn't ever make money, so the stock price again violates all fundamentals of economics. The price is driven up because people love the product, there is no sound value behind it. The removal of government subsidies almost caused the whole thing to implode. The only thing that saved it was wishful thinking running up the stock price for no good reason.
The system is broken, plan accordingly.
Don't worry my bosses at work didn't listen to for two or three weeks on this virus thing either. They made light of it too, at first.
Maybe one day people around me will learn that whey I say I'm worried about something, the question to ask is why, not laugh it off as me being scared or paranoid. Until then, I will just continue to look after my family as best I can.
The good news: I think all of this is going to blow over right before the election and after the election things will return to our current version of normal. I'd advise you that I don't think that economy is sustainable in the long term, but we will return to something similar in short order. China is returning to "normal" as I type this.
The world still isn't ending.
dculberson said:AnthonyGS said:I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
It is my experience that people that like to fall back on "brutal honesty" can give it but can't receive it. And even when giving it are often cherry picking. Do you think you can you receive it?
Brutal honesty, yep I can receive it. I didn't see any of it though. I just saw a lot of "I don't believe you."
dculberson said:The world still isn't ending.
You are correct. And it's not going to end. However a lot of people are being affected by the consequences of not being prepared for the fragility of this economy. Do you really think an economy that is 22 trillion dollars in debt (24+ if Trump gets his stimulus), is long term sustainable? Do you really think this will not impact your children or grandchildren in the big scheme of things? Life can get really bad really fast for lots of people without the world ending. Do you know anyone from Venezuela? I do. Do you know anyone that lived in Soviet era Russia? I do. I have a $10 trillion dollar note on my desk at work. Do you think it's actually worth the ink on the paper?
chada75 said:In reply to AnthonyGS :
Totally argee about being prepared. However, The Corona Virus scare is just that. I call it the Virus of the year. The Media blows everything out of propulsion. Americans should be more concerned with the Flu more than the Corona Virus.
That one hasn't aged well...
Do not panic, just realize that everything is hanging on a by a string and the world is about to end as we know it.
These are the wonderful people with large stockpiles of toilet paper and hand sanitizer so that they would eventually be able to use it to barter for food.
How about the fact that society as a whole has literally been transformed over the last 50 years due to never before seen improvements in technology that will help ensure our culture continues to improve over the long term as we all become more connected and thus are more able to quickly react to issues and partner on solutions.
AnthonyGS said:dculberson said:AnthonyGS said:I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
It is my experience that people that like to fall back on "brutal honesty" can give it but can't receive it. And even when giving it are often cherry picking. Do you think you can you receive it?
Brutal honesty, yep I can receive it. I didn't see any of it though. I just saw a lot of "I don't believe you."
Okay, here goes:
You resurrected a thread from a month ago and warped it to be about COVID-19 (when we already have 10 threads about it) to try to stroke you're ego and proclaim you're smarter than everyone else without any proof.
HUURRRR MARKETS R INFLUENCED DURRRR whoa man! You mean a system working off of human emotions can be influenced? Damn you smart!
Olemiss540 said:
Do not panic, just realize that everything is hanging on a by a string and the world is about to end as we know it.
Honestly? After working in the emergency service for years and seeing how little people WANT to learn about how systems work, it's probably about time. Javelin above said it best- it's really weird to work every day around something you know can kill you REAL quick and is running broken, but because it's not currently failing and the people aren't in the streets you're government decides it's just fine.
Now, we can either talk about TSLA having to stop production just like the rest of the OEMs here- and their market re-evaluation- or we can lock another thread.
Next up, what's the best religion?
AnthonyGS said:dculberson said:AnthonyGS said:I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
It is my experience that people that like to fall back on "brutal honesty" can give it but can't receive it. And even when giving it are often cherry picking. Do you think you can you receive it?
Brutal honesty, yep I can receive it. I didn't see any of it though. I just saw a lot of "I don't believe you."
Reread my post from early February. I'll post it again here for your convenience.
dculberson said:In reply to AnthonyGS :
It's really easy to get wrapped up in your head and get convinced that the world ending crisis is right around the corner. You then go read all this doom and gloom and confirmation bias takes over and you're now convinced that you've got the inside scoop and the world is hanging on by a thread. But read some history and think what it was really like to live through those events. You think people weren't terrified when millions of people dropped dead from the Spanish flu? You think it didn't feel like the end of the world when there were soup lines full of formerly middle class Americans? There's always something bad just over the horizon and it's always so much scarier feeling than the frankly horrendous stuff in our rear view mirror. Yes there will be uncomfortable times ahead but don't fool yourself into thinking that there weren't uncomfortable times in the past or like you have some unique genius insight into the only way to survive it. People are smart, people adapt, and while you've been making your plans so has every one of the other billions of people on the planet. Corona virus is just the latest bogeyman. It's bad yes but it's not Captain Trips. It's not going to kill off the human race. And the US dollar is not going to zero and a pile of scrap in a shed somewhere isn't a hedge against future financial problems.
The situation is bad, it's scary, but it's not anything we haven't been through before both as a species and as a country. You can either chose to check out and say "this is the end" and post jeremiads about how nobody listens to you and you're the One True Prepared Person due to your incredible Service In Nuclear Reactors and Submarines and how Great You Are At Math and So Is Your Six Year Old, or you can realize that the world is full of literally billions of smart people and we're all taking this seriously and while I'm sure you're very smart in some areas I bet many of us are smarter in some areas, maybe even those areas you are good at. I don't claim to be smarter than you, but I will claim to have a pretty level headed response to what many people are panicking about. I don't know what specifically you are advocating for because you seem to mostly just say how good you are at reacting to things and how everyone should be More Prepared. I think the System is no more broken than any other System we have. The stock market is down, oh no. I've lost $100k+ in paper value, Oh No. I'm not going to sell today or tomorrow, I haven't put my mortgage payment into the market. I guess you think we should all sell our stocks and buy land and pile scrap metal on it but again that's not going to make you a functional useful person in a functioning society which we have today and will have every day for the following 10,000,000+ days.
My suggestion: follow standard disaster preparedness suggestions, have a cash emergency fund, have enough food on hand for a few weeks, put retirement funds into the stock market. Buy as much well diversified stocks as you can today as a retirement fund for much later. (10+ year time span is safe, less is less safe.)
kb58 said:Next up, what's the best religion?
Racing
AnthonyGS said:dculberson said:AnthonyGS said:I had a lengthy response, but I'm not going to bother. One it's brutal and honest. The reality is that most people now live such comfortable, easy lives, that brutal honesty and reality are totally uncomfortable. I'm guilty too, I've got it really good.
It is my experience that people that like to fall back on "brutal honesty" can give it but can't receive it. And even when giving it are often cherry picking. Do you think you can you receive it?
Brutal honesty, yep I can receive it. I didn't see any of it though. I just saw a lot of "I don't believe you."
Stocks are on sale! Try to look for the bottom but don’t get caught waiting too long!
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