The future of engines

So, I see that Mazda will only offer 4 cylinder engines in their 2018 lineup. No V-6s available in anything even the CX-9. It's not just Mazda, I see the new Accord also no longer has a V-6 engine option either.

I suspect this is to try to comply with the 2025 CAFE standards, but even a Prius cannot meet the new CAFE average that is set to come into effect in 7 years and would have to pay gas guzzler taxes if the current car was sold new 7 years from now.

Will there be great gains in MPGs between now and 2025 that will enable manufactures to hit the 54.5 mpg target?

Will all vehicles come only with small displacement 4 cylinder engines?

Will the CAFE standards be altered before we get to 2025?

Will everyone just have to buy a full size pickup truck if they want a new car in 2025?

I suspect that Mazda will not offer any V6 engines because they don't want to buy them from Ford anymore.  Mazda stopped making V6 engines when Ford decreed that the company would use Mazda fours and Ford sixes.

CAFE will be re-negotiated.

DWNSHFT said:

CAFE will be re-negotiated.

That's what I think. As soon as I read the standards, I knew it couldn't be met, unless there is some SERIOUS tech under wraps. 

1)  Not meeting CAFE on any individual vehicle != gas guzzler tax.

2)  CAFE # is not the same as a window sticker number.  The Prius would easily meet the 2025 requirement.

3) 2025 rules have already had a midterm review/been renegotiated.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy#2016_mid-term_review

In reply to ProDarwin :

Interesting reading at that wiki article. I didn't realize the CAFE mpgs were not the same as the window sticker numbers. Now, tomorrow, I'll have to learn about how they come up with the CAFE mpg numbers. 

In the future everything will be 660cc turbo, with a 1 liter triple turbo option. Naturally, everything will be fwd. 

T.J. said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

Interesting reading at that wiki article. I didn't realize the CAFE mpgs were not the same as the window sticker numbers. Now, tomorrow, I'll have to learn about how they come up with the CAFE mpg numbers. 

IIRC, CAFE numbers used to be the same as window sticker numbers, but they've changed the formula for calculating window sticker numbers several times since then.

I don't care about Mazda V6s, I just want another rotary. :)  (not that that's likely to help with CAFE numbers, but...)

They'll just continue to hybrid all the things. We're getting a hybrid F-150 and Mustang in the next couple of years. The all electric vehicles are only becoming more popular and increasing in availability. If you sell enough hybrids/plug ins that get 80-100MPGe, you can afford to sell other stuff too.

DWNSHFT said:

CAFE will be re-negotiated.

It’s not just the US that is pushing this. 

T.J. said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

Interesting reading at that wiki article. I didn't realize the CAFE mpgs were not the same as the window sticker numbers. Now, tomorrow, I'll have to learn about how they come up with the CAFE mpg numbers. 

One other note, the new CO2 rules are more than the numbers generated during tests. They also include advanced tech for both the car and how it’s made. 

DrBoost said:

DWNSHFT said:

CAFE will be re-negotiated.

That's what I think. As soon as I read the standards, I knew it couldn't be met, unless there is some SERIOUS tech under wraps. 

More likely it will be met with widespread hybridization and electrification. Don't forget that EVs get 3-digit MPGe. But it definitely isn't achievable with plain ICE powertrains.

and with electric motors, we may see a return to fuel cells to keep the batteries charged, giving us longer range more on par with ICE

Ford announced that they'll be producing 40 different 'electrified' vehicles by 2022. This includes 16 full electric vehicles, and the remaining 24 will be hybrids. That's how you meet the requirements. Hybrid-ize and electrify all the things. Most other automakers have voiced similar objectives.

mad_machine said:

and with electric motors, we may see a return to fuel cells to keep the batteries charged, giving us longer range more on par with ICE

Highly unlikely, especially with the next generation of solid-state lithium cells. IIRC there are still under 50 hydrogen stations in the US.

Yeah, hydrogen infrastructure requirements are going to keep fuel cells impractical until we achieve a federal government that can actually pull off nationwide infrastructure initiatives, because that's what it would take. Even Obama sweeping in on the biggest wave of political energy in modern times didn't pull that off, and things now are about 4x worse. We live in a 'E36 M3hole country' as far as national infrastructure improvements go. So.. no fuel cells. 

That, and fuel cells nearly offer the best selection of the worst downsides. Big up-front vehicle costs like an EV, expensive fuel that mostly comes from fossil sources at the moment like an ICE, and fuel that escapes through solids and embrittles steel like...nothing else out there. The only things hydrogen had going for it were quick refuel times and longer ranges, but now with quick-charging solid-state batteries, that advantage isn't so great either.

Here's something relevant I ran across, a super-turbo DI 2-stroke opposed 6, sponsored by an oil company:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/01/achates-power-brings-an-efficiency-revolution-to-detroit/

It could get around 40MPG in a modern midsized pickup.

The Koreans caught a lot of flack in 2011 when they brought out their midsize sedan offerings (Sonata and Optima) without a V6 option. Luckily the 2.0T was more then enough power to match the competition's V6's and they weighed lighter than their previous versions. 

I won't lie, I'm surprised that Honda and Toyota hadn't already followed suit with Mazda close behind.

Have you guys test drove that new CX9?  Not getting into the CAFE stuff its 300 tq and good economy, its a very good motor.  The auto aint half bad either for an auto.  I haven't tried the new Accord 2.0t yet, but I bet its similarly good. 

GameboyRMH said:

mad_machine said:

and with electric motors, we may see a return to fuel cells to keep the batteries charged, giving us longer range more on par with ICE

Highly unlikely, especially with the next generation of solid-state lithium cells. IIRC there are still under 50 hydrogen stations in the US.

You do not need hydrogen for fuelcells. they work with methane and other gases too

8valve said:

Have you guys test drove that new CX9?  Not getting into the CAFE stuff its 300 tq and good economy, its a very good motor.  The auto aint half bad either for an auto.  I haven't tried the new Accord 2.0t yet, but I bet its similarly good. 

We have one, it's great.  It's a relatively big 4-banger (2.5L) and has a small-ish turbo so it spools up very quickly.  The turbo runs out of breath above 5K so it's not what I'd want in a sports car, but for a 3-row crossover SUV it's fine.  And yes, the 6-speed traditional automatic is nice, far better than the CVTs that Nissan and Subaru are sticking in everything.

Exactly.  Its power curve is suited well for the type of vehicle that it is in.  In 0-30 and 0-60 work it puts the power out like mad.  Hp always ready to go NOW, no having to wait for multiple downshifts and no slippy CVT.  I drive one occasionally, and the low end is better than the 6's and 8's I have driven. 

Here's another interesting new thing, Dodge is about to put something like an F1 KERS unit on their new engines, along with a small battery pack. This one runs on the belt drive and can put out about 16hp:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/01/ram-deploys-unique-air-cooled-motor-generator-system/

mad_machine said:

You do not need hydrogen for fuelcells. they work with methane and other gases too

I've even heard of some efforts to make them work with gasoline. That seems a more likely long term solution for fuel cells than running them on hydrogen.