Thoughts on Our Future With Self-Driving Cars

Well, cars certainly have made it harder for people to ride bikes, especially in cities. So I do agree autonomous cars will possibly have the effect of making it harder to daily drive a vehicle yourself. But of course if they reduce traffic, or open up parking spaces, etc, we may have the opposing forces as well (autonomous cars do not have to park where the occupant wants to get out). The gas/electric thing is also an issue, but really is not the autonomous car's fault. The electric revolution is coming with or without autonomous.

I used to think the same as you about insurance. But now I wonder if autonomous cars may have the opposite effect in the long run. If less people crash into you, then your insurance rate can technically be linked more closely to your personal risk, rather than the risk of you and your surroundings like it is now. That means good drivers should benefit.

I don't expect most people in this forum to be happy about autonomous cars.

They are, however, coming. They are coming fast, and will change everything. Because the majority want them, and they will be enormously profitable to the people who can build them and the related industries.

Bottom line- car enthusiasts are in the vast minority. 20 years ago, no one used cell phones either.

Every time autonomous cars come up on this forum, everyone seems to feel the need to voice their negative opinions on the subject, loss of freedoms, etc. Nobody actually cares if you don't like them- they are coming anyway.

The far better conversation among car enthusiasts would be to discuss the opportinities they will create, and how we will respond as enthusiasts.

I hope everyone drives them, as even if I drive a "traditional" car, it will make my life on the road much more safe. Even more so on my bicycle.

The one concern I have is related to the commuting subject we had earlier. A lot of people don't want a 1 hour commute because they don't want to drive an hour, especially in traffic. With a robo-car to do that work instead, it would not surprise me to see the number of super-commuters increase by a large amount. Would that offset the traffic improvements that could be achieved from perfectly attentive robot drivers and less accidents? Maybe?

In reply to ProDarwin:

Yes, I think so. Some traffic experts have speculated that 90% of today's current traffic jams would be eliminated if only 10% more people used simple cruise control.

Traffic is truly a lowest common denominator problem. Taking only a few of the very worst off the roads would blow our minds.

SVreX wrote: The far better conversation among car enthusiasts would be to discuss the opportinities they will create, and how we will respond as enthusiasts.

Agree 100%. I'll restart our prior conversation on this.

In reply to Robbie:

Indeed. Traffic would improve exponentially if everyone gave up the need to be at their destination 1 minute sooner when conditions don't really allow it. I can drive as fast as just about anyone - and often do, but I also recognize when speeding is a fruitless endeavor and just go with the flow.

Robbie wrote: Well, cars certainly have made it harder for people to ride bikes, especially in cities. So I do agree autonomous cars will possibly have the effect of making it harder to daily drive a vehicle yourself. But of course if they reduce traffic, or open up parking spaces, etc, we may have the opposing forces as well (autonomous cars do not have to park where the occupant wants to get out). The gas/electric thing is also an issue, but really is not the autonomous car's fault. The electric revolution is coming with or without autonomous. I used to think the same as you about insurance. But now I wonder if autonomous cars may have the opposite effect in the long run. If less people crash into you, then your insurance rate can technically be linked more closely to your personal risk, rather than the risk of you and your surroundings like it is now. That means good drivers should benefit.

I'm certainly not going to get upset by the prospect of other people driving more safely. I do think that it's important to plan for the worst, and hope for the best, because like SVRex noted, it's coming. I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised by your scenario than be stuck with mine, but I hope to be prepared for either situation should it arise.

Robbie wrote: In reply to ProDarwin: Yes, I think so. Some traffic experts have speculated that 90% of today's current traffic jams would be eliminated if only 10% more people used simple cruise control. Traffic is truly a lowest common denominator problem. Taking only a few of the very worst off the roads would blow our minds.

That seems optimistic to me. But yes, removing a few bad apples could improve a lot. But if miles driven skyrockets to 160% in urban areas, can they handle the flow? And there will still be some bad apples, because you will still have some drivers in traditional cars... whether they prefer driving them, can't afford to upgrade, etc.

I think if self driving cars start up it'll make driving for us car loving people very easy. It'll be like the motorcyclists of today where they weave the traffic lines.

In reply to Trackmouse:

With traffic enforcement becoming the revenue generator that it has, I'd expect lots of attention from the local authorities to be focused on vehicles that aren't new enough to have autonomous driving capability. Since we're assuming that autonomous vehicles won't break traffic laws, cops will learn to overlook them completely. Not only does that effect driving enthusiasts, but it would also disproportionately effect low income people. Essentially, it becomes another poor tax.

STM317 wrote: In reply to Trackmouse: With traffic enforcement becoming the revenue generator that it has, I'd expect lots of attention from the local authorities to be focused on vehicles that aren't new enough to have autonomous driving capability. Since we're assuming that autonomous vehicles won't break traffic laws, cops will learn to overlook them completely. Not only does that effect driving enthusiasts, but it would also disproportionately effect low income people. Essentially, it becomes another poor tax.

Depending on the mix of autonomous/not, I could see states abandoning traffic enforcement as revenue generation. At some point the number of non-autonomous drivers on the road will be low enough that enforcement won't be worth pursuing.

Purely anecdotal support of your observation but I notice the same thing in LA/SoCal. People go, the answer is go, and people are used to going, the driving culture is honed and the infrastructure spending has been massive in the name of go. Of course there are still accidents and traffic 'jams'.

iceracer wrote: I recently spent three days in the Fairfax/DC area. Lots of traffic and I mean LOTS. All flowed well and no jams. Never saw an accident. I had lots of time to observe as I was riding in a tour bus. Maybe some of those drivers would welcome an autonomous car. Not me. I look at driving as sort of a game.

In reply to ProDarwin:

Agreed. Until that happens though, vehicles that are obviously non-autonomous make prime targets

The trucking industry might be a bit of a glimpse into the future as it is now so heavily GPS monitored with fuel efficiency, loading dock timing, at load capacity as much of the time as possible driving the drivers who are overseen by personnel in what look like NASA command centers. Drivers are given dings and bonuses based on avg speed. When trucks pass each other these days it is by 1mph in order to maintainer their averages. I certainly noticed the change in driver behavior- the only trucks I see 'hauling ass' are the mostly independent logging trucks on secondary roads.

Knowing how our gov't works, its not the individuals buying these cars that bothers me. It's the special interest that requires all cars on "X" roads to be autonomous by "insert unrealistic date". Then there will be special tax breaks on auto-n cars and all non-will have to pay a specific user rights task. Then special licensing required which requires extra classes that really teach nothing are just a money drain on society.

Look, I know they're coming. I'm not happy because I'm looking at the long game here although, apparently, I shouldn't. I don't have offspring that will have to deal with it and if I can hold out another 20 years I'll be golden so screw everyone else.

In reply to Shaun:

That may depend on the trucking company. I have a friend who is a day-driver for a pet store chain. Has been doing it for years and has even stayed at the same company for years. He told me a story about how one time he made a conscious effort to essentially hyper-mile his rig and managed to get something like 2 additional MPG. Management didn't give him any more recognition than a shrug.

Unfortunately, I suspect Bob's comment about government lobbies and influence will play a much larger role in how this happens than any sort of rational logic we might think of.

In reply to Shaun: Even the independent drivers are going to have to go to electronic log books that integrate with the ECU and GPS at the end of the year.

Older truck are exempt, and will continue with paper logs, but anything built within approximately the last 15 years will need to be electronic.

Wow! Didn't know the latest- Thanks

jstand wrote: In reply to Shaun: Even the independent drivers are going to have to go to electronic log books that integrate with the ECU and GPS at the end of the year. Older truck are exempt, and will continue with paper logs, but anything built within approximately the last 15 years will need to be electronic.

It will be interesting in years to come to see how they handle trucks and other industrial equipment that must also use the road. I do agree that it is coming, and faster than many of us here would like. My nothing to back my opinion is that by 2030 almost all cars sold with be some form of electric, and a good portion of those with autonomous capability. Or if you were ready Yahoo, "10 Reasons why you were wrong about gas engines."

Personally, I'm still waiting on the Jetsons!

My wife's first car just out of high school was a Chrysler Imperial with a square steering wheel, fender wings, push button transmission, pointy chrome rocket doo daads, all that stuff! Bought it for $500. Someone(s)torched it on the mean streets of New Orleans.

racerdave600 wrote: It will be interesting in years to come to see how they handle trucks and other industrial equipment that must also use the road. I do agree that it is coming, and faster than many of us here would like. My nothing to back my opinion is that by 2030 almost all cars sold with be some form of electric, and a good portion of those with autonomous capability. Or if you were ready Yahoo, "10 Reasons why you were wrong about gas engines." Personally, I'm still waiting on the Jetsons!

Trackmouse wrote: I think if self driving cars start up it'll make driving for us car loving people very easy. It'll be like the motorcyclists of today where they weave the traffic lines.

Or more likely they'll be deemed a safety hazard and you wont be allowed to use them on public roads.

EXCUSE me ,but let's remember this is GRASSOOTSMOTORSPORTS....fossil fuel rocks this house and y'all can theorize till you're BLUE in the face...if ELON M is your savior I have nothing more to say......peace out

I don't think manually driven cars are going to disappear any faster than cars without airbags and disk brakes etc. I do think the self driving cars are coming and for general commuting which is not really enjoyable most of the time anyway I think it will be great especially if it happens to be cheaper so I can throw more money at a enthusiast car for the weekends

Let us not forget that fossil fuel rocks this house ........if ELon M is your savior ......carry on bro, and let Al gore guide y'all to the promised nether verse ....err what did he promise?.....sorry I'm old and going TO BED. BWAHahahahahahahahha!!!! yu millenulz have got a lot to c o n t e m p l a t e

759NRNG wrote: Let us not forget that fossil fuel rocks this house ......

So, no top fuel dragsters, no electric drag racing, no jet fueled cars, no pneumatics, no hyrdogen, no methane...

And definitely no flux capacitors!

I don't think so.

(BTW, most electric in this country is still generated by burning fossil fuel- so Elon Musk fans can go right ahead and enjoy burning coal!)