WTB: Best long a$$ commute car

New or CPO is a good buy for people like myself and HTG. Buy 'em, keep'em until they rust in two and move on.

I tried to estimate whether buying a $15,000 econobox brand new and holding it 10 years would cost less per year than what I've paid for starting with a 13 year old E36 convertible and so far holding it for 4 years and over 100,000 miles. Turns out the new car came out ahead, by a couple hundred a year. But it does have a few significant disadvantages:

1. The savings don't start until several years in. The up front costs are considerably worse.

2. The new car approach requires holding onto the econobox for 10 years and over 200,000 miles. If the car is totaled in an accident, trying to start over with a new econobox would wipe out the savings and send you back to the high up-front costs.

3. This is an entry level luxury car vs super cheap economy car comparison. Having started with a used econobox would probably end up cheaper than a new econobox.

MadScientistMatt wrote: I tried to estimate whether buying a $15,000 econobox brand new and holding it 10 years would cost less per year than what I've paid for starting with a 13 year old E36 convertible and so far holding it for 4 years and over 100,000 miles. Turns out the new car came out ahead, by a couple hundred a year. But it does have a few significant disadvantages: 1. The savings don't start until several years in. The up front costs are considerably worse. 2. The new car approach requires holding onto the econobox for 10 years and over 200,000 miles. If the car is totaled in an accident, trying to start over with a new econobox would wipe out the savings and send you back to the high up-front costs. 3. This is an entry level luxury car vs super cheap economy car comparison. Having started with a used econobox would probably end up cheaper than a new econobox.

Curious to see the math on that.

Are you accounting for the time-value of money tied up in the new econobox? That can be huge unless you are getting a crazy long loan at 0%**. Insurance and taxes alone on a new car are almost $1000/year more on a new car than on my older car.

** Does not apply to Canadians as I understand.

Here is my back of the envelope math. It's pretty basic and has a number of wild guesses, so I didn't try any time value of money calculations.

Bought the BMW for $7500 (best E36 I could find, for a best I could find price). I could probably sell it for ~$3000 now, 4 years later. It has required about $1500 in repairs each year, not counting things like oil, tires, and other consumables. So, $1500 per year in repairs plus $1125 annual depreciation = $2625 per year.

Hypothetical new car: Buy for $15,000 (assuming this is bought in cash or financed with a very low interest 3 year loan), sell after 10 years for $2000. So that's $1300 in depreciation a year. Assume no repair costs for the first 4 years and $1500 repairs thereafter for average repairs of $900 per year. Final result is $2200 per year on average.

There are a lot of things not factored in - fuel economy, insurance, etc - but it doesn't seem unreasonable. However, it also looks like a used economy car would work out slightly better.

Interesting. Your BMW has had a very steep depreciation curve the past few years considering its age. I bought my econobox (Saturn) in October 2011 for $3000, and looking at CL, I don't think I'd have much trouble fetching $2500 for it, making depreciation more like $150-200/year. I don't see any reason I can't keep it another 6 years and still sell it for like $1500.

Maintenance numbers are always wild guesses. I have the actual amount spent in maintenance, but I've done the work myself. I'd guess maybe $800-1000/year having a mechanic do it, but I think that would be a fair number for a new car after 5 or 6 years as well.

ProDarwin wrote: Interesting. Your BMW has had a very steep depreciation curve the past few years considering its age. I bought my econobox (Saturn) in October 2011 for $3000, and looking at CL, I don't think I'd have much trouble fetching $2500 for it, making depreciation more like $150-200/year. I don't see any reason I can't keep it another 6 years and still sell it for like $1500.

Yes, but I did start with a 110,000 mile car and it's now at over 230,000 miles. I may be selling it short in that estimate, and the numbers would look different if I kept it for a couple more years; it probably wouldn't lose much more value.

ProDarwin wrote: Interesting. Your BMW has had a very steep depreciation curve the past few years considering its age. I bought my econobox (Saturn) in October 2011 for $3000, and looking at CL, I don't think I'd have much trouble fetching $2500 for it, making depreciation more like $150-200/year. I don't see any reason I can't keep it another 6 years and still sell it for like $1500. Maintenance numbers are always wild guesses. I have the actual amount spent in maintenance, but I've done the work myself. I'd guess maybe $800-1000/year having a mechanic do it, but I think that would be a fair number for a new car after 5 or 6 years as well.

This. We paid $2k for the old Accent 7 years ago. We kept it for 6, put 150+k miles on it and sold it for $1000. Sure, we only got half our money out of it, but c'mon. At one time I had figured the cost per mile with everything included, taxes, registration, insurance, maintenance repairs etc and it was less than $.03 per mile. The biggest issue with the calculation was knowing how many miles were actually ON the car when we sold it since the odometer had been intermittent for the last 3 years of ownership.

What I am looking at for a 180 mile round trip commuter car....

Bobzilla wrote: This. We paid $2k for the old Accent 7 years ago. We kept it for 6, put 150+k miles on it and sold it for $1000. Sure, we only got half our money out of it, but c'mon. At one time I had figured the cost per mile with everything included, taxes, registration, insurance, maintenance repairs etc and it was less than $.03 per mile. The biggest issue with the calculation was knowing how many miles were actually ON the car when we sold it since the odometer had been intermittent for the last 3 years of ownership.

I checked what Accents go for on Craigslist here, and it's practically nothing (although trying to find one with a stick is not especially easy). Main problem is I'm not sure I fit in them!

MadScientistMatt wrote:

ProDarwin wrote: Interesting. Your BMW has had a very steep depreciation curve the past few years considering its age. I bought my econobox (Saturn) in October 2011 for $3000, and looking at CL, I don't think I'd have much trouble fetching $2500 for it, making depreciation more like $150-200/year. I don't see any reason I can't keep it another 6 years and still sell it for like $1500.

Yes, but I did start with a 110,000 mile car and it's now at over 230,000 miles. I may be selling it short in that estimate, and the numbers would look different if I kept it for a couple more years; it probably wouldn't lose much more value.

Wow. You drive a lot. That's also going to push the depreciation/year # higher.

But my back of the envelope math says my car or Bob's accent end up being way way way cheaper to operate vs. buying an econobox new - even if you drive said new car into the ground. If you want to see a fair comparison... look at driving your car vs. a new 1 or 3 series.

MadScientistMatt wrote: There are a lot of things not factored in - fuel economy

A 6 cylinder BMW, factoring in the price difference of premium vs regular, would work out to probably $200 a month in fuel savings compared to that econobox with how much you drive. Also, the 2013 econobox is as nice as your E36 interior/ride wise (IMO). So the fuel mileage is definitely something to consider.

Also, I would argue that your maintenance costs are based on you doing the work (maybe, maybe not, you didn't specify). Finally, a car 4 years old does NOT require $1500 a year in repairs beyond basic maintenance.

Your numbers are skewed to your bias (not trying to be yelling YOU'RE WRONG about this, just being honest). I might run some numbers tonight, but I don't think your accounting is realistic (especially for a 20 year old BMW).

Ranger50 wrote: What I am looking at for a 180 mile round trip commuter car....

Amen, commuter cars can be cool too!

To keep your calculations fair, plan on running the used and new to the same age/mileage.

If you start with 110,000 miles on the odometer, you should take into count the cost of having to replace the used car 110,000 miles sooner that the new car.

If you start low enough on the cost of used that may not have a big impact, but used car prices go up just like new cars every year. Maybe not as much, but there is an increase due to inflation and higher starting price. In other words, an 8-10 year old econobox in 2019 is unlikely to cost that same as an equivalent 8-10 year old econobox in today.

There are so many variables with a used car that it's hard to accurately predict costs. No matter how well you check it out, you can't 100% predict future repair needs. We could spin the numbers on a used car any way we want by guessing on repair costs. With a new car, you can be more accurate because besides consumables it's under warranty at least for a while.

With a few exceptions, I don't have a history of keeping cars for years on end, so I likely won't go new. I don't want to take that huge depreciation hit. I'm focusing on finding that sweet spot on the curve where the car isn't beat to death, but has taken the initial depreciation hit.

The "wild card" is I'm still waiting to see what happens with Elio Motors. Supposed to hit production fairly soon. If they can deliver on what they promise, it's very, very tempting.

I'd go for a fully loaded 7th gen accord. The 4-cylinder is flexible, provides good power for commuting, returns good gas mileage, and the seats/interior are great.

I'd stay away from hatches/wagons due to increased road noise but if it's something you must have, like others have said, the mazda3s is choice there.

Focus Wagon : http://www.mycannonmotors.com/2002_Ford_Focus_Silverdale_PA_225714715.veh

HiTempguy wrote: Also, I would argue that your maintenance costs are based on you doing the work (maybe, maybe not, you didn't specify).

I probably do about 75% of the work; there have been some jobs that I didn't want to touch for whatever reason.

Finally, a car 4 years old does NOT require $1500 a year in repairs beyond basic maintenance.

Probably not with normal miles, but I'd have put over 100K miles on the clock at that point. At the very least, it's going to need a timing belt if it has one, and quite possibly new shocks. The numbers are a rough approximation, and 100K miles seemed like a good point to start factoring them in.

I was a bit surprised that the new car beat out the BMW in that comparison, even though it was not intended to be fair. It was intended to be a "What approach should I take next with a second kid on the way and a bigger need to save money?" comparison. I'm pretty sure a used econobox would beat the new one, as well, as most of the savings are from the tail end of holding onto it for a long time, not from buying new up front.

HiTempguy wrote: Also, I would argue that your maintenance costs are based on you doing the work (maybe, maybe not, you didn't specify). Finally, a car 4 years old does NOT require $1500 a year in repairs beyond basic maintenance.

Avg. mileage is 15K/year. You just said a car with 60k miles is going to need a ton of work:

HiTempguy wrote: And also, you are looking at it from the eyes of someone who has owned a used car for a while. When buying a used car, it is realistic (if over 60k miles) to have to budget for: -tires -brakes -timing belt (possibly water pump) -ALL fluids -belts -windshield That right there if you don't skimp, even DIY, is well over a grand.

FWIW, the actual amount I spent on immediate maintenance upon purchasing my $3000 E36 M3box with 100k is along the lines of $150. Much of what you suggested was not necessary. I did:

Thermostat
Coolant Flush
Cam Cover Gasket
Oil + Filter
Coolant temp sensor Trans Fluid + Filter

Even if you paid a shop to do that, it would come in well under 1K. Brakes were done a little over 30K later and still not necessary. I've put 44K on the car so far and still have the tires that came on it. I think you are grossly over-estimating the amount of work that needs to be done to a used car.

Mileage is absolutely something to consider.... which is why I suggest things like the Prius (and the Elio is certainly a good fit for this scenario). The fact that people jump in here and recommend a Crown Vic, Lexus LS or IS, GM 3.8L cars blows my mind. The difference between 20-30mpg and 50mpg or 80mpg adds up to a ton of $$ over a couple years commuting 90 miles a day.

ProDarwin wrote: You just said a car with 60k miles is going to need a ton of work:

I said a car with 60k miles that someone else has owned is going to require a ton of work. This statement was made as a generalization. Are there cars out there that have been maintained and that you will not pay a premium for? Absolutely.

Those are few and far between though. I try to buy them I am well aware of the cost/benefit of used cars, having never owned a completely brand new off the floor car before. But I do all my own work, am meticulous in my maintenance, and always make sure that the car offers me MORE value than the initial buy-in, usually earning money in the overall process. That is NOT a normal individual dealing with a mode of transportation lol.

t-belt, waterpump, coolant, trans, brake fluid and filters on that Elantra I posted are about $300 in parts and takes me about 2 hours to do it all. Without a lift. On the garage floor. In the middle of winter.

ProDarwin wrote: Mileage is absolutely something to consider.... which is why I suggest things like the Prius (and the Elio is certainly a good fit for this scenario). The fact that people jump in here and recommend a Crown Vic, Lexus LS or IS, GM 3.8L cars blows my mind. The difference between 20-30mpg and 50mpg or 80mpg adds up to a ton of $$ over a couple years commuting 90 miles a day.

While the super-econobox may put additional monies in my pocket, I choose to have room for the 5(!) people he is requesting. I sat in a new 40mpg Fiesta hatch and unless the person behind me doesn't have legs, they do NOT fit. 3 kids across the back of the rear seat is NOT going to happen. Hell, it barely works with my wife, infant rear facing seat and the other kid in a booster in an Impala.

Ranger50 wrote:

ProDarwin wrote: Mileage is absolutely something to consider.... which is why I suggest things like the Prius (and the Elio is certainly a good fit for this scenario). The fact that people jump in here and recommend a Crown Vic, Lexus LS or IS, GM 3.8L cars blows my mind. The difference between 20-30mpg and 50mpg or 80mpg adds up to a ton of $$ over a couple years commuting 90 miles a day.

While the super-econobox may put additional monies in my pocket, I choose to have room for the 5(!) people he is requesting. I sat in a new 40mpg Fiesta hatch and unless the person behind me doesn't have legs, they do NOT fit. 3 kids across the back of the rear seat is NOT going to happen. Hell, it barely works with my wife, infant rear facing seat and the other kid in a booster in an Impala.

I think you are thinking of a different thread. No 5 person requirement here that I've seen. Hence the OP suggesting Elio.

In reply to ProDarwin:

From the first post:

"Ability to carry 5 if needed prefered, not required. I have a minivan, but I'd like to have a second car that can haul my family if needed."

There basically isn't a car available to comfortably carry 5 people unless it has a 3rd row (and comfortable isnt really a thing then). If you are carrying more than 4 people, mom-mobile (mini-van), full size van, or suv. Nothing else works, so why ask (Mazda 5 is not a car)?

I've thought Prius, but finding one in my price range that doesn't already have 150K+ miles will be tough

Why do you care about mileage? It's a Prius! My 228k mile Prius has the original serpentine belt and front brake pads. I did just recently spend $20 on spark plugs, though! Tragically expensive when you consider that $20 in fuel would have gotten me around 260 miles of commuting.