THIS WILL NOT BE A POLITICAL POST.
Our world is evolving. It is inevitable and constant. One of the upcoming major resets in our world has a timeline and is ticking down rapidly.
An electric future for automotive applications.
Now I believe the planet needs to reduce greenhouse emissions. I believe that electric power is an amazing alternative to the internal combustion engine (ICE from now forward). I love the idea of economies of scale reducing the cost of electric power trains (EP) as we move forward.
I am not a skeptic. I am simply looking at our world as it sits.
If the major automotive manufacturers are going to stop production of ICE and only offer EP vehicles it will effectively remove over 40% of the population from the new car market (edited). As the market saturates and the ICE becomes less common that same 60% will no longer have access to transport themselves freely.
I am not talking about the people like me, with high amperage service in my home and the ability to invest in a 220v high speed charging system in my garage. I am talking about people renting homes, apartments, living in trailer parks or who simply can not afford the cost of the subsequent improvements needed to sustain the electric needs.
I am also talking about infrastructure. The recent issues in Texas and the perpetual rolling brownout in California not included the existing power generation infrastructure will not support the load of a million or more NEW 220v 50a charging stations being Daisy chained on to the grid every year.
I would like to hear your opinions and have a rational debate about this.
Also something went wrong and I put this in Classic Motorsports not in Off Topic can a mod fix my booboo?
The Texan thing is an example of a bunch of things going wrong at once and a lack of ability to deal with it. Had Texas been willing to accept federal oversight of their power grid, then they'd be hooked in to other states and that would allow them to bring in power from out of state. So let's just set Texas aside for now.
My take: the change is going to be evolutionary, not revolutionary. Even if every new vehicle starting tomorrow is an EV, the fleet is still going to take a long time to change over. And that gives us time to prepare the infrastructure.
Electrical capacity is different from things like oil, where x amount of oil can do y amount of work no matter how you spread out the usage. If smart chargers can be used to fill in the under-utilized grid capacity at off-peak hours (and EVs are well suited to this, as they inherently tend to charge when demand is at the minimum), then it actually makes life easier for the utilities. And charging overnight does not need to pull 220v 50A.
I don't know where the statement of "removing 60% of the population from the new car market" came from, but it's definitely something I'd want to know more about before I took it seriously. I suspect it's something along the lines of comparing the average (mean?) price of a new car and the price of the most popular EV on the market, which is missing a whole bunch of factors both today and going forward.
Electric cars have a place but I hope it never gets to be only electric cars. I live way out in the country and it gets cold here. Both are very bad for battery powered electric cars.
Also I think that it's a bit stupid to use electric cars that are hooked to coal power plants, I can't imagine that burning gas at the source is significantly more pollution than burning coal and losing efficiency by pushing that electricity many miles away.
I do think that huge cities would greatly benefit from electric cars, pollution would go down definitely, but in Cali they already have rolling blackouts without loads of electric cars.
There needs to be upgrades all over before it can happen, instead of the happy emotional decision to just jettison ICE cars right now.
I also have lived off grid for decades, it's different than a lot read about. It's also stunningly expensive if you want it to be the same as being on grid. Or you can make changes and use much less electricity and it can be cheaper, most won't do that. I think I use roughly a tenth of what an average household uses here
Percentage of home ownership in the united states is currently at 64.3%, I did flip a my math, I should have said 40% out of the market. (The US Census has 64.3% home ownership and lists Dwellings with people living in them at 105 million and Dwellings occupied by the owner at 55 million, so even the numbers are a little wonky.)
I am correcting my statement.
I put the number out there because of the renters/non owners and the simple fact that I wouldn't invest in a $2500-10000 unit in a rental home.
My initial post does exclude Texas and California from the current conversation. Ones an anamoly the other is systemic, neither represent the actual world.
Economies of Scale will reduce the cost of new EV purchase from their current elevated state. I am confident of that. The AVERAGE person will still be able to go out and buy their Camry in the same manner for about the same price.
If GM, Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Honda and Hyundai-Kia all go EV by 203,0 which is what the sabre rattling is signalling currently, the off peak use suddenly become an on peak load. With no plans for mass nuclear improvement and the (minor) flaws associated with solar and wind farming I see no other way than to increase coal and fossil fuel power production.
And I still can't comprehend where the chargers will go for those that don't own their property.
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :
My guess would be car parks with chargers would be the easiest. It wouldn't be a great idea either.
Antihero (Forum Supporter) said:
losing efficiency by pushing that electricity many miles away.
There is actually very little loss to electricity transmission on the order of 3-6% (national average). I looked this up recently when frenchy made a statement claiming rural areas saw a 50%+ loss.
Idaho is that state that averages the highest loss and it's ~13%.
Just to be transparent, I am the guy sitting in the hot seat running the electrical grid (or watching it run) at a power utility. I have an EE degree with an emphasis on renewable energy, and used to work as an EE at my utility. I am NERC certified, so trained in how the grid operates and how failures have propogated in the past. There, that is out of the way.
Keith is right about Texas. This issue happening there was foreseeable and fixable. If you want to learn more about the various regions of our North American electrical grid and all that go to NERC's website.
My utility could swap all existing gasoline vehicles to electric tomorrow with no upgrades or problems-as long as everyone mostly charged off peak, and maybe if we have a situation with a few vehicles off the same transformer they can work together a bit. However, each utility is different, so what is true here is not necessarily true everywhere. We have a stoutly built system with multiple transmission feeds, multiple generation sources, and an advanced, modern relaying and communications system. We also have some of the cheapest power prices.
Regarding future vehicle energy systems mix I will say I think different types of vehicles fit different needs. I just bought a new F350 with the godzilla engine because it was the best solution to my towing/hauling problem. If I had a decent commute I would likely have an electric car for it. I don't see any of the existing energy systems going away soon.
Jcamper
z31maniac said:
Antihero (Forum Supporter) said:
losing efficiency by pushing that electricity many miles away.
There is actually very little loss to electricity transmission on the order of 3-6% (national average). I looked this up recently when frenchy made a statement claiming rural areas saw a 50%+ loss.
Idaho is that state that averages the highest loss and it's ~13%.
Interesting, I live in Idaho too.
According to a quick googling coal power plants average about 33 percent efficiency. I guess it depends on if it's a 13 percent drop off the 33 percent or if it's 13 percent of 33 percent. Gas engines are 30-35 percent efficient so it's roughly the same at the source before degradation.
At that point it depends on how much pollution is caused by both. I wasn't able to find a quick figure but most the things I read say coal is much more.
Greener electricity should happen regardless but people use a stunningly high amount of electricity too
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :
I honestly believe that will either be dealt with by landlords as a way to increase profit. Or by the city as a way to increase revenue.
As for rural low income people. Some will creatively resolve the issue themselves. While others will get grants or assistance from the county or utility companies.
z31maniac said:
Antihero (Forum Supporter) said:
losing efficiency by pushing that electricity many miles away.
There is actually very little loss to electricity transmission on the order of 3-6% (national average). I looked this up recently when frenchy made a statement claiming rural areas saw a 50%+ loss.
Idaho is that state that averages the highest loss and it's ~13%.
Those numbers make sense and aren't in conflict with what I said.
Realize most energy is consumed in metro areas. Energy is also created near metro areas. However that farm house at the opposite end of the state uses electricity as well. Transmission losses to that farm house can be as much as 50% depending on how many miles it is to them. Total transmission losses can be 13% since most power is consumed local to the power plant. But losses out to the far reaches of service increase greatly but as a total of all losses its13%.
Hallock Minnesota is 380 miles away from Minneapolis. I don't know if that's the closest source of electricity but Northwest Minnesota is pretty sparsely populated. So it's not going to be a short distance. And Minnesota isn't the biggest state by any means.
I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express a night ago and brought my charger block to recharge then didn't use it.
Which got me thinking about the future and stealing electricity. Not really a thing but more like a science fiction movie? Will electricity be a hot item?
In reply to Datsun310Guy :
A lot of hotel /motels up here in the frozen tundra have had plug ins for overnight guest's cars out in the parking lot.
Plus a fair number of businesses use that rather than have maintenance guys go around with sets of jumper cables.
QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter said:
Percentage of home ownership in the united states is currently at 64.3%, I did flip a my math, I should have said 40% out of the market. (The US Census has 64.3% home ownership and lists Dwellings with people living in them at 105 million and Dwellings occupied by the owner at 55 million, so even the numbers are a little wonky.)
I am correcting my statement.
I put the number out there because of the renters/non owners and the simple fact that I wouldn't invest in a $2500-10000 unit in a rental home.
My initial post does exclude Texas and California from the current conversation. Ones an anamoly the other is systemic, neither represent the actual world.
Economies of Scale will reduce the cost of new EV purchase from their current elevated state. I am confident of that. The AVERAGE person will still be able to go out and buy their Camry in the same manner for about the same price.
If GM, Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Honda and Hyundai-Kia all go EV by 203,0 which is what the sabre rattling is signalling currently, the off peak use suddenly become an on peak load. With no plans for mass nuclear improvement and the (minor) flaws associated with solar and wind farming I see no other way than to increase coal and fossil fuel power production.
And I still can't comprehend where the chargers will go for those that don't own their property.
Several points. . We switched from incandescent lights to LED lights and dramatically reduced demand. 60-90 watt light bulbs got replaced with 7-15 watt LED's. A/C's use significantly less energy today than just 10 years ago. Refrigerators have made similar progress. Microwaves have dramatically reduced the load on electric ovens and even those have had some serious improvements recently. Look at power tools. I can charge batteries for those on circuits that would never handle the original corded tool.
In addition my state has 30% of the power needed generated by renewables. Our goal is 50% in 5 years and I honestly believe we'll make it.
Finally, what other improvements are coming down the pike? There are potential chargers capable of restoring a charge in 5 minutes to a modern EV. The process probably involves some sort of capacitance micro discharging in rapid bursts to limit negative effects of heating. Or not. Could be something else entirely.
Just as a point of discussion, according to an article I read, two years ago now the price per unsubsidized KW/h of generation slightly tipped in favor of wind & solar vs. the cheapest coal in the world (from India).
According to the market, that's probably the future of generation. Now, that's not too say that it's going to be 100% of source or perfect in every situation/application, but if you were thinking that the future was going to use more electricity per person and wanted to get in on making a power plant, your cheapest cost to produce and maintain would likely be wind and solar.
In reply to WonkoTheSane (FS) :
Plus the ability to size according to needs. Throwing up some panels in a rural area means putting them on the ground for easy access. You also have room for wind generation. ( they require 105% fall radius from nearest occupied structure ) wind power is seriously increased above the tree line.
A factories flat roof is also a natural since most factories won't have tall trees blocking sunlight. As would be apartments with their flat roofs.
Jcamper said:
Just to be transparent, I am the guy sitting in the hot seat running the electrical grid (or watching it run) at a power utility. I have an EE degree with an emphasis on renewable energy, and used to work as an EE at my utility. I am NERC certified, so trained in how the grid operates and how failures have propogated in the past. There, that is out of the way.
Keith is right about Texas. This issue happening there was foreseeable and fixable. If you want to learn more about the various regions of our North American electrical grid and all that go to NERC's website.
My utility could swap all existing gasoline vehicles to electric tomorrow with no upgrades or problems-as long as everyone mostly charged off peak, and maybe if we have a situation with a few vehicles off the same transformer they can work together a bit. However, each utility is different, so what is true here is not necessarily true everywhere. We have a stoutly built system with multiple transmission feeds, multiple generation sources, and an advanced, modern relaying and communications system. We also have some of the cheapest power prices.
Regarding future vehicle energy systems mix I will say I think different types of vehicles fit different needs. I just bought a new F350 with the godzilla engine because it was the best solution to my towing/hauling problem. If I had a decent commute I would likely have an electric car for it. I don't see any of the existing energy systems going away soon.
Jcamper
You're in an excellent position to comment about transmission losses. How wide an area do you serve, or what is the longest line from your source? How many people does it serve compared to how many locals?
Do you have any idea of what power loss is per mile?
I'm putting my money on kerosene-fired steam-powered automobiles. It's an idea whose time has come!
https://www.historynet.com/full-steam-ahead-abler-doble-jay-leno.htm
The county next to us in SW Virginia just approved a 2,700 acre solar farm, but I didn't see any mention of how much power it will produce.
the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues.
BFH_Garage said:
the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues.
Put the solar farm in the desert. SW.
In reply to Slippery (Forum Supporter) :
The least likely to severely impact the food supply chain is the smaller farms near urban centers where most power is consumed.
Here in the Midwest the bigger more efficient tractors require a minimum of 1000 acres to make payments and most farmers have many multiples of that to turn a profit. Either own or lease.
So my currently uneducated question is where will all of the materials for the battery come from? Oil is pumped from sources all over the world. Are we just moving from one limited commodity to another? What is the impact of mining all these materials vs. oil? Inquiring minds want to know!
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :
I've owned a couple of rental units for a decade now. I rent to college kids, musicians, waiters, shoe salesman, single mothers, etc.
If I start losing tennants because they want to plug their cars in I'll just have wiring service at the units upgraded and a plug installed. It looks like under a grand per unit based on some quick googling.
Some new condo units and office buildings in my county (blood red, BTW) are already doing this. The socioeconomic class that I rent to don't have electric cars yet, but will at some point as the price keeps dropping.
Where are you hearing that electrification will hurt renters and low-income parts of society? If your objection isn't a rational one it's difficult to have a rational conversation going forward.
In reply to QuasiMofo (John Brown) Forum Supporter :
There are lots of facets to this (which others are discussing), but you have a couple of core assumptions in your questions which are incorrect...
1- Charging electric cars increases load on the grid. That's not right (for the most part). Electric cars BALANCE the grid load. They are mostly charged at night, which is when the grid is less stressed (because businesses are closed and manufacturing plants are not drawing power). Very little change would be necessary.
2- Electric cars will replace ICE cars soon. It's hard to define car production as a US thing (because car manufacturers all ship to other countries). So, lets look at it worldwide. There are 1.42 billion cars currently in operation in the world. There were 92 million cars produced worldwide in 2019. At that rate of production, if every single manufacturer stopped producing ICE vehicles ENTIRELY today, it would take 15 years to manufacture that many cars. (assuming no additional new auto consumers, which is not reasonable)
3- Renters must have home chargers to be included in the electric economy. That's like saying renters can't wash their clothes because they don't own washing machines. There will be plenty of other ways to get their cars charged. What do you think all the owners of gas stations are gonna do to make money? There will also be mobile charging businesses, battery swapping businesses, landlords will begin installing chargers so they can get better tenants and higher rents, etc. Every problem creates business opportunity.
4- We will always need to have as many cars per household as we do now. Electric also brings with it vast new opportunities for alternate transportation ideas. Electric mass transit, autonomous cars, car ownership sharing, electric scooters and single user vehicles, etc. etc. There are LOTS of alternatives. And younger generations are already rejecting auto ownership as the necessity their older counterparts have made it. I'm not convinced the next generations will have multiple hunks of iron collecting rust in the yard. They may be very content to have a neighborhood rideshare program where they each get timeshares of a neighborhood owned Tesla.
So, I hear you, but I disagree with your assumptions. Electric cars bring a new welcome facet to the automotive world, but they aren't gonna create a great divide. They are going to diversify the opportunities for everyone.
Slippery (Forum Supporter) said:
BFH_Garage said:
the farmers say they will make more leasing their land for solar, it will be interesting to see if we hit a point where we are taking too much productive farm land out of production for solar and create food supply issues.
Put the solar farm in the desert. SW.
They are out there. I am not sure if this is the one in CA just outside of Las Vegas or not but they are impressive.
