mtn said:In reply to TRoglodyte :
The Osama Bin Laden letter from 20 years ago is now making the rounds and garnering sympathy (not quite the right word but my brain isn't working) among tiktokers.
I don't think it's garnering sympathy, rather people are realizing that terrorism doesn't just spawn out of nowhere.
In reply to red_stapler :
mtn said:In reply to TRoglodyte :
The Osama Bin Laden letter from 20 years ago is now making the rounds and garnering sympathy (not quite the right word but my brain isn't working) among tiktokers.
I don't think it's garnering sympathy, rather people are realizing that terrorism doesn't just spawn out of nowhere.
The problem is that is a very misguided conclusion with little evidence to support it. It's easy to believe. We are told that from a young age, from bed time stories to Disney movies. Throughout school. Many tend to root for the underdog, and assume them to be virtuous while the powerful must be evil or corrupt. And there is some truth to that throughout history and in parts of the world today. The problem is that many people are quick to see a result and jump to conclusions as to the cause. They see inequality and equate that with unfairness. So the underdog is being treated unfairly, how can you not root for them? What they are missing is the true causes, not just seeing the results and making assumptions.
There is not supposed to be religion in this thread, so I'll do my best to explain without religion. Just keep in mind that some systems of government are closely intertwined with religion. Many middle eastern governments have laws that negatively affect the ability to grow wealth and prosperity. It's not the people, it's the laws that govern them. Created wealth goes back to the state. It's difficult to build generational wealth, and businesses usually dissolve when an owner dies. They constantly have to start over from the beginning, generation after generation. If you tried to govern a more prosperous nation in the same manner, it would cease to remain prosperous. This is the way most of the world functioned for centuries, and why most of the population was equally poor. Except for the ruling class of course. There were lots of underdogs, and many of the prosperous were corrupt. Things have changed over the last couple centuries. Those who have abandoned those ways have seen prosperity never imagined. Life is a competitive sport. Adapt or suffer. Rather than join the rest of the world in the age of prosperity, some have chosen to stick to the old ways. When they get left behind, rather than join in the fun, they revert to historic solutions- hurt people and break their stuff. "Luckily," many areas of the Middle East had the oil windfall that they could rely on. Unfortunately, they lacked the ability to develop their resource and had to rely on their global competition. Without oil, many would have little to offer the world economy and would have trouble supporting themselves. They would be Gaza. Who relies extensively on aid to survive. Not because of big bad Israel, but because their government does not foster the ability to sustain themselves. Look over at Israel, and they are orders of magnitude more prosperous than Gaza. Just like all of those bed time stories, we know who the bad guy is. It's much easier to blame others than take action to improve yourself, wether you are an individual or a state. Every Israeli could pack up and leave tomorrow, and the Palestinians would be no better off. They would be worse without Israel to provide for them, and they would likely just blame other countries in the region and start E36 M3 with them. If you are curious why no one wants Palestinian refugees, just look up how many civil wars and insurrections they have tried to start in their neighbors. So just maybe they are underdogs because they have refused to follow tried and true paths to success.
In reply to Boost_Crazy :
Thanks for your analysis, very well spoken.
Well said, Boost Crazy. A characteristic of a great many struggling nations is that their leadership sees an inverse relationship between the quality of life of their general populace and their own power/wealth. If the people become more affluent and better educated (Strong correlation there), they will inevitably demand more responsiveness from their leaders. The disincentive to actually produce lasting help for their people is tremendous. Much of ME leadership wants to keep their country barefoot and pregnant, both literally and figuratively. If Palestinians were to actively start getting their sh-t together they'd have to open modern, civil relationships with the world at large, including their immediate neighbors. And that's the last thing that countries like Iran want to see. So Iran's "assistance" is not designed solely to hurt Israel, but to perpetuate misery, strife and death for the entire geographical area.
red_stapler said:mtn said:In reply to TRoglodyte :
The Osama Bin Laden letter from 20 years ago is now making the rounds and garnering sympathy (not quite the right word but my brain isn't working) among tiktokers.
I don't think it's garnering sympathy, rather people are realizing that terrorism doesn't just spawn out of nowhere.
"Terrorism is the price of empire"
I think you give most people too much credit. Plenty of people are actually sympathizing, I don't know why you would doubt people sympathizing with terrorists, have you not seen the pro Hamas protests going on in the US.
I will say some people, who aren't stupid, are looking at the letter critically, and saying he does have some grievances that may be founded in reality, but from here it appears to be the minority.
An interesting insight. I have NO idea of the veracity of this poll, but if true, does not speak well to the concept of coming up with some sort of negotiated peace, or maybe even the concept that Hamas does not represent the common Palestinian thinking.
Another concept at work here I suspect is the idea that many of the current Palestinians (being a young population) were not able to vote for (and many not even born) when Hamas was elected. You might think, well, they certainly cannot be assumed to have the same opinion of those that elected Hamas. You also have to consider though that those same people grew up under the control and thumb of Hamas and the Hamas controlled media and education which certainly is not only going to be very anti-Israel / Jew, but very pro Hamas.
Still, considering this, 45% extremely supporting the attack in Gaza, and 13% very much against, is remotely hopeful? Maybe?
It looks like the Israelis are on a bit of a pause, advance wise, and seem to consolidating what they have already, but are pushing a bit in the northern areas.
Israel is releasing video evidence of hostage being brought to the Shifa hospital.
Israeli army released for publication 2 videos from the Shifa Hamas HQ showing Hamas terorrists bringing in kidnapped civillians (a Thai and Nepalese nationals) during the Simchat Tora Massacre on October 7th, the "medical staff" is clearly and willingly collaborating with the militants
The Houthis rebels in Sudan (the ones that have been firing Iranian missiles at Israel) are apparently upset that their missiles are not getting through, so have decided to make the bold statement by capturing an Israeli cargo ship and of course all the Jewish crew....
...well. The ship is partially owned by an Israeli, and the crew is of course completely not Jewish.
Al-Saudi Arabia Network: News that the Houthis have taken over the Israeli -owned ship "Galaxy Leader", with 22 crew members on board. The ship was carrying a flag of the Bahamas.
An IDF General's perspective:
Major General (res.) Giora Eiland, who served as head of the Operations Division, published an article "Let's Not be Intimidated by the World". There's PLENTY of opinion pieces written on the article, but as of yet, I can not find the original in english. From the perspective of a war fighter, the statements I've seen make sense. From a political or diplomatic perspective it's ugly.
"... According to the American narrative, there are two groups of people in Gaza. One is the Hamas fighters, who are brutal terrorists and are therefore mortal. Most of the people in Gaza belong to a second group, innocent civilians who suffer for no fault of their own. Therefore Israel must not only avoid harming them as much as possible but also act to make their lives easier."
According to Eiland, the narrative should be, "Israel is not fighting a terrorist organization but against the State of Gaza. The State of Gaza is indeed under Hamas leadership, and this organization managed to mobilize all the resources of its state, the support of the majority of its citizens, and the absolute loyalty of its civil administration, around Sinwar's leadership, while fully supporting his ideology. In this sense, Gaza is very similar to Nazi Germany, where a similar process also took place. Being that this is the accurate description of the situation, so it is also correct to manage the war accordingly.
"A war between states is not only won by military combat, but also by the ability of one side to break the opposing side's system, the economic ability, and first and foremost the ability to provide energy, is of the utmost importance. The collapse of Germany at the beginning of 1945 was mainly due to the loss of Romania's oil fields, and once Germany didn't have enough fuel for its planes and tanks - the war was won....
Boost_Crazy said:They would be Gaza. Who relies extensively on aid to survive. Not because of big bad Israel, but because their government does not foster the ability to sustain themselves. Look over at Israel, and they are orders of magnitude more prosperous than Gaza.
Your assessment can apply to a number of other nations, but I fail to see how the residents of the Gaza strip can sustain themselves when their commerce is entirely constrained by the borders controlled by Israel and Egypt.
In reply to Mezzanine :
All countries have boarders that are controlled by other countries. It of course a matter of diplomacy to negotiate those restrictions. Gaza also has excellent access to the Mediterranean (i.e. no boarder), not terribly far from the Suez canal (e.g. excellent trade possibilities). They would almost certainly need to build a bigger port though. It also has a large amount of seaside properties (especially as a ratio to it's size) that likely has very good potential for resorts etc. Building up their infrastructure would reduce their dependence on Israel for water and power. There are also of course next to a rather prosperous country, which always creates possibilities.
Most all of the above of course would require money to build such infrastructure. Much (some?) of which they were given. Most of which their leadership appeared to choose to use otherwise. I would think it is highly unlikely anyone would invest there / loan money to them under the current leadership (unless they want to invest in killing Israelis, which is really want some are doing). They did use to have an airport also, but that has been shut down for a while. Having a primary national goal of destroying Israel does not really make for a positive business / economic environment.
It really does seem like there is potential there. Practically, as it is, very little.
In reply to Mezzanine :
Your assessment can apply to a number of other nations, but I fail to see how the residents of the Gaza strip can sustain themselves when their commerce is entirely constrained by the borders controlled by Israel and Egypt.
That's how borders work. Every nation is constrained by it's borders. At least they aren't land locked like others. They have little of value to trade on the world market, and have done little to develop anything of value to trade. Their greatest export is rockets fired into Israel. Who was their largest importer. Shooting at your biggest customer is not conductive to growing business. Gaza has received billions of dollars in aid. But since money is fungible, the world pays for Gaza's hospitals and schools so that Hamas doesn't have to. Instead, they spend their people's money on tunnels and rockets. If they put their resources towards truly helping their people, they would improve. Israel and Egypt don't tightly control the boarders just because they want to punish Palestinians. They control them because Palestinians elected a terrorist group to run their government.
This whole notion that "We'll stop being shiny happy people when you treat us better" is bass ackwards. It doesn't work with kids, it doesn't work with nations. Be a good, and you will be treated as such, but you need to take the initiative. There is no scenario where you literally give in to terrorists and it improves their behavior.
Edit to add- They were actually working towards this, on the surface. But there was zero desire for improvement and bettering their people, it was a ruse to lead Israel to believe that they wanted peace. It was cover while they planned the October 7th attacks. They had the opportunity for peace and prosperity and they chose violence. How different would the future look for Gaza if they had just perused peace?
aircooled said:In reply to Mezzanine :
All countries have boarders that are controlled by other countries. It of course a matter of diplomacy to negotiate those restrictions. Gaza also has excellent access to the Mediterranean (i.e. no boarder), not terribly far from the Suez canal (e.g. excellent trade possibilities). They would almost certainly need to build a bigger port though. It also has a large amount of seaside properties (especially as a ratio to it's size) that likely has very good potential for resorts etc. Building up their infrastructure would reduce their dependence on Israel for water and power. There are also of course next to a rather prosperous country, which always creates possibilities.
Most all of the above of course would require money to build such infrastructure. Much (some?) of which they were given. Most of which their leadership appeared to choose to use otherwise. I would think it is highly unlikely anyone would invest there / loan money to them under the current leadership (unless they want to invest in killing Israelis, which is really want some are doing). They did use to have an airport also, but that has been shut down for a while. Having a primary national goal of destroying Israel does not really make for a positive business / economic environment.
It really does seem like there is potential there. Practically, as it is, very little.
When the shooting stops, I'm sure the Chinese will be happy to build them a nice, big port with borrowed Chinese money and imported Chinese labor. You want to see some diplomatic fireworks....
In reply to 02Pilot :
Wow, yeah, that would be bad. I cannot imagine even China would want a bite of this giant S-sandwich though! Think of the concept of converting Yasser Arafat airport to a Chinese military airfield!
Some info, some more in the realm of rumors:
- Apparently as part of the Hostage release / cease fire negotiations, Hamas is insisting that Israel do absolutely no reconnaissance flying (drones etc) over Gaza during the cease fire. This of course does not exactly scream "Hey, we are doing this for the civilians, not to just redistribute our fighters / equipment."
- There may be signs Hamas is running low on fighters.
- Hamas is still managing to launch rockets on Israel from within the surrounded area of Gaza.
- Iran has apparently (?!) suggested Hamas to kill any hostages that they have raped or tortured before they can be captured or found by Israel. In a very cold, practical sense, you can see why they would suggest this. Also the reason why I think, no mater the outcome, many of the hostages will never be returned and the only evidence of them may be heavily compromised (e.g. burnt).
The Israeli army says it has breached the blast door at the end of the tunnel discovered underneath Gaza's Shifa Hospital. It publishes two images, one showing the open door and the other further inside the tunnel
In reply to aircooled :
For that kind of proximity to the Suez Canal, I think the Chinese would be willing to put up with a lot. They've proven their willingness to throw money into inhospitable E36 M3holes to gain strategic advantage, and it's much easier to keep things quiet when you ban independent journalists and firewall the Internet. Hell, they'll probably build the Israelis a new wall while they're at it. Belt and Road, baby....
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) said:An IDF General's perspective:
Major General (res.) Giora Eiland, who served as head of the Operations Division, published an article "Let's Not be Intimidated by the World". There's PLENTY of opinion pieces written on the article, but as of yet, I can not find the original in english. From the perspective of a war fighter, the statements I've seen make sense. From a political or diplomatic perspective it's ugly.
"... According to the American narrative, there are two groups of people in Gaza. One is the Hamas fighters, who are brutal terrorists and are therefore mortal. Most of the people in Gaza belong to a second group, innocent civilians who suffer for no fault of their own. Therefore Israel must not only avoid harming them as much as possible but also act to make their lives easier."
According to Eiland, the narrative should be, "Israel is not fighting a terrorist organization but against the State of Gaza. The State of Gaza is indeed under Hamas leadership, and this organization managed to mobilize all the resources of its state, the support of the majority of its citizens, and the absolute loyalty of its civil administration, around Sinwar's leadership, while fully supporting his ideology. In this sense, Gaza is very similar to Nazi Germany, where a similar process also took place. Being that this is the accurate description of the situation, so it is also correct to manage the war accordingly.
"A war between states is not only won by military combat, but also by the ability of one side to break the opposing side's system, the economic ability, and first and foremost the ability to provide energy, is of the utmost importance. The collapse of Germany at the beginning of 1945 was mainly due to the loss of Romania's oil fields, and once Germany didn't have enough fuel for its planes and tanks - the war was won....
Hes right. Politically, everything Ive seen is internally this is exactly what the people want. Externally, Israel never seemed to care too much, and it will pass. They are at war with a hostile state, not a small terrorist cell.
As you may have heard, there is a ceasefire agreement starting tomorrow. My quandary at this point still is: What does Hamas get out of this? They at least get some points from their side for getting prisoners released.
One wonders if Hamas even has enough command and control over it's fighters at this point to guarantee a cease fire(?)
Here are the highlights:
----------
1. 50 living Israelis will be released in beats of 12-13 each day during the 4 days of respite. It is possible that more nationalities will be released, but they will not be at the expense of the quota of 50 Israelis.
2. During the ceasefire, Hamas will try to locate more abductees, estimating that it can locate up to 80 women and children.
3. An additional day of respite will be given for every additional ten that are released.
4. Kidnappers not in Hamas hands will also be released, Hamas is responsible for bringing them.
5. Murderers will not be released from Israeli prison.
6. The population of Gaza will not be allowed to return to the north of the Gaza Strip.
7. Fuel will enter the Gaza Strip, but only on the days of the ceasefire.
8. Fighting will resume immediately upon the end of the truce.
9. Collecting intelligence from the air will be suspended for 6 hours each day.
10. All the security branches - the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad - supported the deal. The War Cabinet unanimously supports.
11. Israel insisted for two weeks not to accept the original proposal of Hamas.
12. After the deal is approved by the government, 24 hours will be given to petitions against it, after which it will be launched.
------
In regards to the last item:
The Israeli Supreme Court rejected the petition against the hostage release deal
So hostage/prisoner exchange is happening. Why is it the the aggression initiator seems to get the better deal? Why, if Hamas is trying to get relief from being bombed (or whatever) are they still getting three people for every one?
In reply to matthewmcl :
It's a lot more even than past exchanges. Individual Israeli hostages have required the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in years past.
matthewmcl said:So hostage/prisoner exchange is happening. Why is it the the aggression initiator seems to get the better deal? Why, if Hamas is trying to get relief from being bombed (or whatever) are they still getting three people for every one?
Cause the world's not fair and people that have leverage exploit it. Hamas doesn't care about their people and Israel does = leverage.
The prisoner for hostage exchanges of course have been going on. There is indication it will continue. I believe the agreement Israel has is 1 day for every 10 hostages (not sure if that requires some unequally large release of Palestinian prisoners)
A White House official confirms that Israel and Hamas agree to extend the truce in Gaza
Hamas has committed to release 20 women and children over the next two days, NSC's John Kirby says
The question still remains, what is Hamas's angle in this? What are they getting out of this? (The released prisoners are going to the West Bank I believe, so not restocking fighters)
RUMOR RUMOR: There have been C17s on a circuit from Qatar to the Sinai peninsula (Egypt, next to Israel)(?). The aid trucks leaving Gaza are apparently not inspected (?). The guess is those of influence / power in Hamas withing Gaza are gettin' out while the gettin' is good. Any fighters that remain, that don't want to sacrifice themselves can simply drop their weapons and fade into the civilian population.
So... it is possible, when the exchanges stop, there may be no one left to fight(?). To be clear, Hamas loyalists and fighters will still be there, just not fighting and pretending to be innocent civilians. This is certainly not an unusual behavior at the conclusion of wars, and of course any, what are referred to as "military age males" will attract a large amounts of suspicion.
The U.S. Navy has taken back control of the Israel-affiliated tanker “Central Park Vessel" after it was hijacked by Yemeni Houthi rebels earlier today.
Not terribly shocking, but someone is attacking the Israelis in Gaza during the cease fire. This speaks to the fact that Hamas may not be in as much control as they think and of course the other factions that may be in play. This also could just be "civilians" who wants to kill Israelis. The differentiation between civilians and combatant can be a very thin line in circumstances like this. It is very common for combatants to be in fully civilian clothes as it is.
The Israelis could certainly halt the cease fire for this (and like be accused of attacking themselves to create an excuse), but I suspect they will not considering there were no deaths or serious injuries. If they don't, will the encourage more "free shots" at them?
The Israeli army says three explosive devices were detonated near Israeli forces in two separate locations in the northern Gaza Strip, "in violation of the truce agreements." It says that in one of the incidents, gunfire was also directed at troops. The Israeli army says troops returned fire. A number of soldiers are lightly hurt in the attacks. "In both cases, the Israeli army forces were within the agreed ceasefire lines."
5 Israeli soldiers lightly hurt in Gaza incidents; explosive devices remotely detonated, target Israeli army tank & armored vehicle near Rantisi hospital
You can imagine why Israel would not want fuel going into northern Gaza. At this point there really should not be any true civilians there, and sending fuel there would almost certainly go directly to Hamas even if there were civilians in need.
Palestinian Red Crescent: Israel prevents a fuel truck from entering northern Gaza
In the line of Additional Information. One of the things that is likely playing a role in this whole thing is Captagon. It is highly likely the Hamas combatants are high as hell on it. Likely makes it easier for them to do those things they say they want to do, but in the moment, humanity might make them take pause.... but not on Captagon. What is Captagon you say?:
Captagon was first manufactured in 1961 as an alternative to amphetamine and methamphetamine used at the time to treat narcolepsy, fatigue, and the behavioral disorder "minimal brain dysfunction". Dexamphetamine was already being used by the military to enable soldiers to stay awake for long periods of time and to "enhance courage and bravado". Captagon was supposed to be a milder version of these medicines. But by the 1980's the U.S. government declared it a controlled substance with no currently accepted medical use. Manufacturing of the drug ceased in the 1980's.
However, illegal manufacture has continued, and has recently escalated in the past few years in Europe and the Middle East. Some sources suggest Captagon is one of the more popular recreational drugs among affluent youth in the Middle East.
No doubt the "Captagon" used by ISIS or ISI, and other extremist groups, to enhance their soldiers abilities today is far removed from the Captagon of the eighties. Instead of just two main ingredients, illegal manufacturing likely combines several highly addictive stimulants with compounding actions into one destructive little pill. This "new age" Captagon, as with any highly addictive substance, is likely to cause irreversible changes in brain circuitry that govern impulse control and judgement, taking away a person's ability to reason or think rationally.
Captagon has been touted by media as "The Amphetamine Fueling Syria's War" or "The Jihadists' Drug".
https://www.drugs.com/lifestyle/captagon-available-2961377/
Where is it coming from? Syria:
In 2011, after a brutal government crackdown on anti-Assad protesters, Syria descended into civil war. Internationally isolated and racked by fighting, the country was plunged into an economic crisis.
Although Damascus denies any involvement in the trade, observers say production and smuggling of the drug have brought in billions of dollars for al-Assad, his associates and allies as they looked for an economic lifeline.
According to a New Lines Institute report, the Syrian government uses “local alliance structures with other armed groups such as Hezbollah for technical and logistical support in Captagon production and trafficking”.
Experts say most of global Captagon production is now in Syria, with the wealthy Gulf states as the primary destination.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/9/what-is-captagon-the-addictive-drug-mass-produced-in-syria
In reply to aircooled :
NAZI Germany: The use of methamphetamine, better known as crystal meth, was particularly prevalent: A pill form of the drug, Pervitin, was distributed by the millions to Wehrmacht troops before the successful invasion of France in 1940. Developed by the Temmler pharmaceutical company, based in Berlin, Pervitin was introduced in 1938 and marketed as a magic pill for alertness and an anti-depressive, among other uses. It was briefly even available over the counter. A military doctor, Otto Ranke, experimented with Pervitin on 90 college students and decided, based on his results, that the drug would help Germany win the war. Using Pervitin, the soldiers of the Wehrmacht could stay awake for days at a time and march many more miles without resting.
Blood, Meth, and Tears: The Super Soldiers of World War II (jmu.edu)
Tale as old as time, isn't it? I remember reading "Black Hawk Down", and many of the Somali fighters were known to chew "khat", which is a plant with stimulant properties.
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