In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
Bold move considering they've shuttered all their nuclear power plants and are relying on Russian naural gas for power.
In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
Bold move considering they've shuttered all their nuclear power plants and are relying on Russian naural gas for power.
In reply to bobzilla :
Yeah, I certainly wasn't expecting it.
It did make me more confident in a unified NATO response, but then 02Pilot had to go and say something about "alliance dynamics" and now I'm all worried about internal conflict again. 
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:Javelin said:
He's a desperate man trying to cling to his internal power and knows that if this gambit fails he's done for.That's exactly what I'm worried about.
And from what little news I get through the algorithms that feed such things to me, it doesn't look much like the west is willing to give up much (if anything at all...). By the looks of it, even previously silent Germany finally spoke up:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-germany-finally-standing-up-to-russia-
That's welcome news.
Things are happening and it does not sound good ,
listening to BBC world service news right now , you can get it on their website ,
Fingers crossed that they can find a way out of this , but Putin is playing hard ball !
And Russia has started moving in to the occupied parts of the two Donbas territories. Will they stop at the actual Minsk line or drive in to the Ukrainian portions?
In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
There is a vast difference between words and actions. IIRC the US has shipped something like 200m of lethal aid (small arms ammo, javelins) to Ukraine, in addition to the approx 2B in military aid since 2014.
I haven't read that Germany has done anything other than chide Putin and send some helmets(!). The pipeline has nuetered them completely.
Hey, the Olympics just ended. This a shocking coincidence!! 
Since this thing has been creeping along, I don't know if they will march in the conflicted areas at this point. They can easily go into the separatist areas with no issue (and will likely have some sort of staged "welcome party"). I have heard that they have sortied a few amphibious assault ships into the sea of Azov (south in the map below). There are also reports of BMD's (air-droppable armored squad carrier) being moved to air bases, with chutes attached in the northern areas.
I am not sure if Putin is done with his "or else I'll do it" threat plan. So he could use further advances for that purpose. It seem rather likely "helping" the entire separatist region is likely at some point, but I am still not seeing the purpose of what appears to be setting up to take the areas east of the Dieppe river. Seems a bit of a bridge to far to me (long term wise), but who knows.
RT is calling the troops "peace keepers". I suspect they will have little concern with the separatists shelling the Ukrainian, but a BIG problem with Ukrainians shelling back. It's just a mater of deciding to "peace keep" where they are not welcome (still in breakaway states).
Of course, this SHOULD initiate the US response. We will see how dedicated the US is on that end tomorrow. It will also be interesting to see the visible NATO air activity tomorrow.
An interesting side note that I was thinking about: Putin is essentially justifying this because of the genocide that has been going on in eastern Ukraine (he has pictures and everything). The interesting (funny in a sick sort of way) thing about this is that he was more than willing to call off his "peace keeping" to stop the genocide if Ukraine is guaranteed not to enter NATO. Somehow, lack of ability to enter NATO not only stops genocides, but forgives them! I am thinking they should make a declaration that China cannot enter NATO.... Weiger problem solved!! Honestly, I do wish someone in power would call him out on this.
Oh wait. Don't worry. The UN security council is meeting on the matter as of this writing. The UN was formed precisely to stop this sort of militaristic actions by a country....
...ha...
...ha, ha... sigh...
In reply to aircooled :
I heard that more than one million Ukrainians live in the country. They arrived after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and when the Donbas conflict broke out. Where do refugees go this moment？
So poot poots speak was rambling and unhinged.
Here's my uninformed actions to resolve.
1)seize all property and sanction those who support the Russian military or just generally rich Russians. Example any asset connected with Gazprom. Once all their houses and yachts offices and assets go to sherif sale they'll not be happy. Probably need some sort of act of congress.
2) Ukraine in nato. Also Sweden and Finland. Russia could be looking to get those back.
3) starve out the Russian people??? I don't know what's next. The guys insane and I'm of the mind to do exactly what he says.
im also done with the poot poot is playing chess and we are playing checkers thing. I'll bet this war wont be popular at home. This is some sort of personal vendetta that poot poot has. It's not a calculated global play for power.
CrustyRedXpress said:In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
There is a vast difference between words and actions...
I haven't read that Germany has done anything other than chide Putin and send some helmets(!). The pipeline has nuetered them completely.
Well, they just killed the Nord Stream 2...
That's somethin.
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:CrustyRedXpress said:In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
There is a vast difference between words and actions...
I haven't read that Germany has done anything other than chide Putin and send some helmets(!). The pipeline has nuetered them completely.
Well, they just killed the Nord Stream 2...
That's somethin.
Germany's newfound backbone as of yesterday is really something. Maybe this guy will be better than Merkel.
The parallels to WWII are really striking though. China and Russia are both pretty powerful by themselves, and each have a common goal of destabilizing the West. They have no alliance or any other reason to back one another. The rest of Europe and the US is quickly falling into solidarity behind the NATO flag, as they should be. So we have two belligerent nations, one in Asia and one (barely) in Europe, and the rest of the world is really hoping nothing goes wrong. In WWII is was Austria, Poland and Czechoslovakia. In 2022 it's Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea and Taiwan. The big difference this time is that basically everyone has enough nuclear firepower to destroy the planet a few times over.
Hug your kids. This is going to suck.
Irrespective of how far the military component of this goes, Western sanctions need to be very carefully calibrated to isolate Putin, not reinforce his narrative of Russia as victim. Targeting wealthy supporters, overseas assets, and foreign direct investment all make sense; anything that makes the average Russian associate their suffering with Western decision-making is not. Suspending (but not canceling) Nord Stream 2 is a good start.
The prospect of fast-tracking Ukraine into NATO would be the fastest possible path into WW3. Russia would move in before anything meaningful could be done for Ukraine. Ukraine would invoke Article 5. Then NATO either goes weak in the knees and falls apart, or the balloon goes up.
This is a calculated escalation, not the actions of a madman. Putin may be factoring in internal pressures or other things that we are not taking into consideration, but he is proceeding far too carefully for this to be a fit of rage. Whether he has calculated correctly is another question entirely, of course.
John Welsh said:In reply to 02Pilot :
I just want to say, "thanks for sharing your insight." I'm enjoying your commentary.
It's been a few pages since I said this. I just wanted to get it out again.
And, not just Mr Pilot, others with insight too. I thank you all for giving me some understanding to something I don't understand/know otherwise.
Thought experiments:
Suppose Napoleon was alive and running France today. How would he respond as rotating president of the EU?
What would Reagan do if in the White House today? How about JFK?
Are Putins actions different than would be expected of Stalin if he was alive today?
My best bet on success (a weakened and less antagonistic Russia and China) is on Napoleon, though I think JFK proved that he could out maneuver the Soviets once, he could probably do it again. Reagan's exuberance would likely be a huge weakness, though a show of strength could be interesting. Then again, the Iran-Contra mess showed he was more sneaky and less scrupulous than he let on.
I'll take "What flies at 53,000ft and hangs out over conflict areas" for $500, Alex
Speaking of historical situations that might provide some insight (within limits - there is always a grave danger of over-extending historical analogs), it seems to me that the Soviet interventions in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 both offer something relevant here. In both cases, the US and Western Europe watched as democratic-leaning movements outside the Soviet Union, but within the Soviet sphere, rose and were subsequently crushed, and in both cases didn't lift a finger to help them. It wasn't a lack of interest in promoting and assisting such efforts, but rather a lack of practical options. In neither case was there anything the West (collectively or individually) could do without provoking a wider conflict, and Western leaders realized that their populations were not willing to take the risks associated with active measures.
The Soviets were unwilling to allow those movements to succeed in part because they threatened the status quo in a way that the zero-sum calculus of the Cold War simply would not permit, but more importantly because the idea that they might prove successful and popular in ways that Soviet communism had not was an existential threat to the Soviet Union itself, not from external forces, but from internal pressures. The Soviets moved confidently in both cases, understanding that the West would not move offensively into area beyond the Iron Curtain because it lacked the will and means to do so.
The current situation is conceptually similar to these, though the fact that Russia is far more integrated into the global economy offers opportunities for measures short of war that were unavailable during the Cold War. Russia views Ukraine as within its sphere of influence (basically the former Soviet Union) and sees a democratic, pro-Western government there as a threat to its own ability to successfully maintain political control in Russia proper.
In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
At 126kts as well
In reply to 02Pilot :
God I hope not. The crap we doomed those countries to after those uprisings...
I was actually wondering if this wasn't a lot like Austria-Hungary in WW1, where an empire claimed to see a threat by a neighbor (Serbia, in their case), and thought everyone else in the world would leave them to their business because no one could POSSIBLY want to start a war THIS far east...
Unfortunately Serbia had a treaty with Russia that no one expected would be honored, but it was. And Russia had a treaty with France that nobody thought would be honored, but it was. And in order to get to France, Germany had to go through Belgium (who didnt appreciate that very much)... And... And... and then you had an entire generation of men lost to the trenches.
I hope everybody is remembering to read their Sun Tzu, specifically the admonition to (paraphrased) "always leave your opponent a way out before they have to resort to violence..."
I just want to say how much I appreciate this thread, and applaud everyone for keeping it civil and non-political.
bobzilla said:In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
At 126kts as well
Probably a Global Hawk
In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :
I don't think the Austro-Hungarian model works particularly well here. A-H was dealing with incredible internal pressures due to the multi-ethnic nature of its population and the rising tide of nationalism among several of them. It was also - as were others - taking advantage of the collapsing Ottoman Empire next door, which meant that the dynamics of the region were constantly shifting. Finally, the key difference is that none of the parties involved was looking to alter the basic system of governance; all assumed that monarchy was the only legitimate system, thus the presence of other monarchies was simply accepted, and there was no threat of a new, competing system undermining the current one.
The whole process of the ultimatum to Serbia and subsequent development into a wider war is incredibly complex and has been the subject of hundreds, if not thousands, of books. I think what we're seeing in Ukraine is far simpler, more akin to the Cold War cases I mentioned.
Tik Tok former spy always has some interesting thoughts When ever conflicts happen in Russia i always think about this guy.
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