History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Apparently they're currently fighting to keep Chernobyl out of Russian hands?  Pardon my ignorance, but if I was the Ukrainian government I'd almost want them to have it.  They created the disaster in the first place after all....

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to John Welsh :

I wonder if F1 will do anything regrading UralKali sponsorship of Haas, as their livery is basically the Russian flag..

Seeing as how "Not Russia" competed and cheated in the Olympics, I doubt it. The FIA likes money and UralKali brings $$$$$$$

"Consequences you have never seen" Is Putin trying to be a marytr  for Russia? Given his reported health whether true or not and threaning the world sounds crazy. 

In reply to trigun7469 :

Where's that "I got a bad feeling about this" meme?

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to John Welsh :

I wonder if F1 will do anything regrading UralKali sponsorship of Haas, as their livery is basically the Russian flag..

Vettel already came out and said he wouldn't compete in the Russian GP this year, and Max heavily implied the same. I expect Lewis will soon say something similar. That could force the FIA's hand.

trigun7469 said:

"Consequences you have never seen" Is Putin trying to be a marytr  for Russia? Given his reported health whether true or not and threaning the world sounds crazy. 

IMO, it's hyperbole meant to dissuade anyone from interfering. Remember when Saddam promised "The mother of all battles" in 1991? Granted, Putin has nukes, so he actually does have the ability to unleash those consequences, but in this case, I think he's trying to use the threat to keep everyone out of Ukraine.

In reply to hybridmomentspass :

Got an update that he's been driving all night and is now just three hours from the western Ukraine border. Hopefully he'll be clear of things by tonight.

A Turkish cargo shipped was attacked ("by mistake") by Russian planes. Turkey is now using very harsh language about the situation. If they close the straight to trap the Russian fleet in the Black Sea WW3 is on.

wae said:

Apparently they're currently fighting to keep Chernobyl out of Russian hands?  Pardon my ignorance, but if I was the Ukrainian government I'd almost want them to have it.  They created the disaster in the first place after all....

I think it's more about logistics than anything nuclear. Chernobyl is mostly uninhabited, and is the shortest distance between Belarus and Kyiv. It's an ideal staging ground for the Russians to mount a larger push on the capital.

I'm quite certain that if Turkey declares that they are closing the Straits, there will be a coordinated NATO naval effort to secure the northern approaches. Russia is well aware that Turkey is a NATO member, and recognizes that forcing the Straits would be the same as rolling a Guards armored division into Poland. Again, Putin is ambitious, but not suicidal. The Russians would have known that having their naval forces trapped in the Black Sea was a risk long before they moved them there.

Right now, things look like Russia is going to attempt to replace the Ukrainian government with a more compliant one. Failing that, I would not be surprised to see a Russian call for discussions once ground objectives are achieved (or the advance halted by sufficient resistance) centered on formally establishing permanent Ukrainian neutrality in some form.

I fully agree with 02's last paragraph.  It's what I expect also.

The primary issue at this point as I see it is Ukrainian moral.  If the Ukrainians can provide a painful enough of an advance, the outcome will only be bad for Russia.  Body bags returning to mothers has a bad side effect. 

This will also effect any occupation the Russians do.  Put Put claims they don't want to occupy and there is a very good reason for that.  If the Ukrainians stay pissed off, the partisan activity could get very painful for the Russians.

At this point, they have no air force (never had much of one), all of their static air defense is certainly gone.  I suspect they have little use of their artillery (counter battery fire will knock them out almost instantly).  With Russian air superiority, even tanks are going to be less effective.

My hope is they have developed tactics bases on the above situation, which they should know would develop.  E.g. they cannot use large defensive buildup (bunkers etc) because they can be easily targeted by helicopters, planes etc. Their primary asset at this point is likely the infantry and the anti-tank and anti-air they carry.  Stick and move.  Fall back.  Stick and move.

There is some evidence that they are providing some good defense, actually repelling some attacks.  A column of tanks being stopped by the use of Javelins, a SU-25 (Russian A-10) shot down, maybe some helicopters shot down. A lot of the Ukrainian army has been in some sort of conflict for a while now, so many are not the green army that most nations have.

Stay strong Ukraine, Russia will pay for this, one way or another.

I don't think Ukrainian morale is going to break any time soon. Their command and control is probably blown to hell at this point, but it doesn't take a whole lot of coordination to carry out an insurgency. Russian morale is another question. The elite units will hold, but what about the reservists and the average enlisted soldiers? I've heard at least one report of a Russian unit surrendering to the Ukrainians, claiming they were misled as to what they were doing in Ukraine (unconfirmed, could be propaganda, but interesting if true).

Well, i guess 18 pages is a good run..

I think the Russian Navy, what little and awful it is, was already out of the Black Sea, they were doing drills off Ireland I think. 

In reply to FatMongo :

Stop. (That is an official Moderator warning BTW, no politics)

In reply to FatMongo :

We probably agree about a lot, politically speaking, but not really the place for that sort of thing.

To answer the question, the statement that a platoon has surrendered came from the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US.  I agree that it sounds a little fishy, but war being what it is, who knows. 

Come on guys, let's please be totally non-political and super polite...we're not berking around, this is real and getting the thread locked when we've got people like O2 Pilot Et al. providing insight would be a big loss. 

tuna55 said:

I think the Russian Navy, what little and awful it is, was already out of the Black Sea, they were doing drills off Ireland I think. 

Way out of date. Russia sent it's North Sea and Baltic Sea fleets of landing ships and missile cruisers into the Black Sea. One of them did live-fire exercise off the coast of Ireland on the way. We've literally seen their landing fleets coming for weeks. They refueled in the Syrian port that Russia holds.

1/17 Baltic Fleet leaves - https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43902/russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-raising-concerns-that-ukraine-may-be-their-final-destination

1/18 Round 2 leaves - https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43914/more-russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-amid-growing-fears-of-invasion-of-ukraine

1/21 Round 3 - https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43965/russias-landing-ships-are-headed-to-the-mediterranean-to-join-a-growing-armada

I don't read Russian, but this looks like some good news.  This is directly north of Kiev BTW.

Ukrainian army captured whole platoon of 74th motorized brigade in Chernihiv region

https://twitter.com/mil_in_ua/status/1496875679606005763

In general:  It looks like the Russians are advancing quickly in the south, slowly in the north(?) and maybe halted in a few placed in the north east.

Javelin said:

In reply to FatMongo :

Stop.

Calling this the beginning of WW3 and advising people to hug their kids while they still can is not exactly de-escalation either.

And with that, I'm out.  It will be what it is and folks arguing here isn't going to change it.

Changing topics a bit:

For what its worth, even the head of Germany's army admits that they are incapable of doing anything in this situation:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-army-chief-fed-neglect-102741650.html

The rest of the NATO countries, aside from Poland, are likely not  in much better shape. 

Duke said:

Javelin said:

In reply to FatMongo :

Stop.

Calling this the beginning of WW3 and advising people to hug their kids while they still can is not exactly de-escalation either.

And with that, I'm out.  It will be what it is and folks arguing here isn't going to change it.

 

The stop isn't about escalation or opinion, it's about politics.

02Pilot said:

I don't think Ukrainian morale is going to break any time soon. Their command and control is probably blown to hell at this point, but it doesn't take a whole lot of coordination to carry out an insurgency. Russian morale is another question. The elite units will hold, but what about the reservists and the average enlisted soldiers? I've heard at least one report of a Russian unit surrendering to the Ukrainians, claiming they were misled as to what they were doing in Ukraine (unconfirmed, could be propaganda, but interesting if true).

Remember, Ukraine has been dealing with Russia's games for a couple years now.  They are well used to using comm lines that are difficult to hack into or disrupt.  

Apparently the Kremlin has officially announced that ground troops have moved in to Ukraine via Crimera.  Not that we didn't already know that, but now they're 'fessing up officially.