Marjorie Suddard said:I'm not going to lock this thread, because in a time like this I believe it's important that we can share our thoughts and take comfort in each other. I'm not even going to warn against obvious trolling, because it's obvious. Let's continue to discuss like intelligent adults without name-calling or baiting, and if some member(s) can't do that, let us ignore them because it is so contrary to what they desire and so much what we need.
Margie
Thanks Margie. We appreciate this forum very much. I apologize for taking it off topic as much as I have.
Duke said:I know it's just the Ukrainian spelling, but I can't help thinking that "Kyiv" is what "Kiev" sounds like said with a New Zealand accent.
I have trouble too, the guy from the city pronounced it "keeve" so that's what I'm going to try for.
In reply to tuna55 :
Yeah, "keeve" is how the Ukranians say it, "kiyev" is how the Russians say it. It's a political thing.
More info here for those curious: http://www.npr.org/2022/01/25/1075357281/how-do-you-pronounce-kyiv
"For those asking, @npr goes with Ukrainian spelling & pronunciation (not Russian) wherever possible when reporting on Ukraine. Kyiv not Kiev. KEE-eve not KEE-yev."
"Kiev" comes from Russian, and Ukraine has been campaigning for the Ukrainian spelling and pronunciation since the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade Crimea and other parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, many Western news outlets started complying.
I can't find any reputable sources for this on any reputable sites, and searching the WSJ doesn't help me find anything, so that pushes my bullE36 M3 meter pretty high up there. That being said, what sources I have seen on this say that Turkey and her people are pissed about this.
pointofdeparture said:In reply to tuna55 :
Yeah, "keeve" is how the Ukranians say it, "kiyev" is how the Russians say it. It's a political thing.
More info here for those curious: http://www.npr.org/2022/01/25/1075357281/how-do-you-pronounce-kyiv
"For those asking, @npr goes with Ukrainian spelling & pronunciation (not Russian) wherever possible when reporting on Ukraine. Kyiv not Kiev. KEE-eve not KEE-yev."
"Kiev" comes from Russian, and Ukraine has been campaigning for the Ukrainian spelling and pronunciation since the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade Crimea and other parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, many Western news outlets started complying.
Russia has also banned the Ukrainian language a few times. Not very good neighbors, overall. I'd bet a decent amount of Ukrainians feel the same way about Russia as the Irish feel about Britain.
In reply to Mr_Asa :
Unclear if Russia involved at this time. May just be an opportunistic attack by one of Turkey's many enemies (e.g. Armenia, and that conflict is its own whole head-spinning thing where Turkey is the bad guy).
Mr_Asa said:I can't find any reputable sources for this on any reputable sites, and searching the WSJ doesn't help me find anything, so that pushes my bullE36 M3 meter pretty high up there. That being said, what sources I have seen on this say that Turkey and her people are pissed about this.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news/card/sNvkBYqiINav8S5cDGaL
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkish-owned-ship-hit-by-bomb-off-coast-odessa-no-casualties-turkish-authority-2022-02-24/
In reply to pointofdeparture :
I had no idea. Thanks for sharing.
Also, want to express thanks to a majority of people in this thread for keeping a level head and behaving like adults. I'm just now chiming in but have been following from the sidelines for a while.
While I'm here, gentle reminder to always be skeptical of what you see on social media or from news websites you're not familiar with. I've had a few friends share clips that were doctored footage from a video game. This incident is a big deal and the powers involved are well-versed in disinformation campaigns.
https://kotaku.com/ukraine-invasion-war-russia-arma-3-iii-bohemia-video-ga-1848591313
Beer Baron said:93EXCivic said:I was reading Putin is having to try to convince other oligarchs that this had to be done.
This makes me think he might not be in as strong a position domestically as I thought.
Can you link to sources? There's so much being talked about, that seems like it would actually be incredibly pertinent information.
I really want to know how the people who might actually have sway over Putin are reacting.
It was on one of the 24 hour network's news feeds on the invasion.
Russia is mounting a full-bore campaign to justify its invasion of Ukraine, especially among the country's wealthy elite, as Western nations move to punish the Kremlin for attacking its neighbor.
The widespread international outrage — and quick moves by Washington and Brussels to sanction Russia — have made it clear that Russia will, in the short term, be something of a pariah state. US President Joe Biden said Thursday that Washington will limit Russia's ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds and yen, cutting Moscow out of large swathes of the global economy. Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets are also being targeted by US sanctions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is now trying to convince his people that the cost was unavoidable.
Knowing such measures were likely coming, prompted Putin to address Russian business leaders hours before Biden's announcement.
The Russian leader said that business should expect "restrictions" on the Russian economy because of the invasion, which he justified as a "necessary measure."
"They didn’t leave us any chance to act otherwise. They created such risks in the sphere of security that it was impossible to react in a different way," Putin said.The spokesperson for Russia's foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova, went even further. She attempted to frame the Kremlin's invasion of its smaller neighbor as an attempt to prevent a world war.
"This is not a beginning of war. It prevents a global military confrontation," she said.
Both statements, on their surface, seem illogical. How could Ukraine, a country of 44 million people, pose an existential threat to one of the world's few nuclear powers?
But Putin believed that NATO and the West were using Ukraine, which he does not see as a legitimate state, to threaten Russia and topple his government.
If Putin hopes to mollify the concerns of Russia's elite, who will almost certainly feel the economic pinch of sanctions, he'll have to convince them he's right.
Russian forces seem to be closing in on many of the cities. This is the part that could be truly terrible. We are seen how Russian forces have acted towards resisting populations. It has involved massive violence that is aimed at both military and civilians.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
Surely the Russian army won't fire on civilian populations, they would face strongly worded UN condemnation and finger wagging!
But seriously, if/when they get into the cities... The ugly phase of guerilla war begins and nothing good will happen. Best case they stop short of pressing into the cities and let the new Soviet Ukraine sue for peace? I'm thinking of all the articles I saw coming out of the cities talking about the resistance training. And their President, in short, opened the armories to any citizens willing to defend the Fatherland. Not to mention the conscription of all veterans under 60. Ukraine seems to have the gumption and the gunpowder to make Russia have flashbacks of Afghan-land and Chechnya.
Eh, it's all midnight conjecture from some guy who has little chance of guessing what Putin wants out of this and what price he is willing to have his army pay on his behalf. Personally, I would be a little surprised if he wasn't trying to Make Russia Great Again (read Make Russia Soviet Again). Not trying to make any correlations domestically, this isn't the place, but I think that styling carries the implications of what could be encompassed in such a nationalist philosophy.
Error404 said:Soviet Again
So they're going back to elected worker's councils?
In reply to pointofdeparture :
If I'm reading that right, the cornerstone of their argument is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea... But they already have that. They have probably the largest port on the Black Sea, as well as Sochi. Their coastline is 500 miles.
In reply to mtn :
That's a really valid point! I'm reading more about Novorossiysk and also catching some responses to that narrative that weren't there when I originally shared it here. Deleted the post as it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense the more I read into it.
They may take Ukraine, but imagine trying to keep hold of Ukraine. the underground resistance will be huge.
The Indian government has also refused to join the sanctions so that is two huge markets still left open for the Russians.
Chrissmith said:They may take Ukraine, but imagine trying to keep hold of Ukraine. the underground resistance will be huge.
Indeed. Had been reading stories about people in Ukraine buying various firearms and training their families (including their children) in their use.
Similar culture: You know why photos of places like the Warsaw Ghetto mostly had young children and old women? Everyone else died fighting...
An aside. I wonder if part of the "why" is a brain drain. Apparently one can make a lot more money in the IT industry in Ukraine than in Russia, so the best and brightest were leaving the country.
In reply to 93EXCivic :
I have no idea how the percentages break out, but expanding an existing market (India) to take up the slack from losing other markets (US, DE, UK, etc.) would surely take time. Russia is still in SWIFT, Putin hasn't been targeted individually for sanctions, and their energy sector hasn't been sanctioned either. *EDIT: There are now reports the EU may freeze Putin's assets*
Live updates of the MOEX (Russian stock index): https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market
Translated text of Zelensky's speech just before the invasion: https://www.lawfareblog.com/full-translation-ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelenskyys-feb-23-speech
Turkey has declined to attempt to stop Russian Navy ships from accessing the Black Sea.
Yesterday's Russian op's in the internal parts (at distance from border areas) appeared to utilize air mobile assualt to seize strategic areas. Today it appears they are employing full combined arms armored assaults.
While Javelin is an effective weapons system, it will be interesting to see how (if) the Ukrainians will be able to re-supply after the initial and early contact.
I believe by nightfall Saturday (Kiev time) the Russians will hold Kiev. Obviouly Ukrainian resistance will presist but I believe Russian equipment and personnel will be in the city center within the next 24-36 hours.
In reply to FatMongo :
If the russians had air superiority I would agree. They currently do not. Air superiority is crucial in an invasion. It was key for the germans in 38-42, it was key for the allies 44-45 and pretty much every conflict since. He who controls the skies can work miracles on the ground.
I would have been terrible if the Ukranian army had a couple dozen A-10's and Apaches to accompany the Mig-29's providing air cover for the russians. Maybe it's just me wishing they could have had their Fulda Gap moment.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:Chrissmith said:They may take Ukraine, but imagine trying to keep hold of Ukraine. the underground resistance will be huge.
Indeed. Had been reading stories about people in Ukraine buying various firearms and training their families (including their children) in their use.
Similar culture: You know why photos of places like the Warsaw Ghetto mostly had young children and old women? Everyone else died fighting...
The reports I'm hearing say the Ukrainian government is giving weapons to as many ordinary civilians as possible within the last 24hrs. Just 36hrs ago they didn't have the right to own weapons.
Chrissmith said:They may take Ukraine, but imagine trying to keep hold of Ukraine. the underground resistance will be huge.
This was my thought also. My guess is the Ukrainian government may fall fairly quickly, but Russia could get bogged down for a long time fighting a Ukrainian insurgency. How that turns out depends on how determined the Ukrainian people, how hard the sanctions hit russia, and how much the Russian people support the war effort.
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