History in the Making: Russian Invasion

A Ukrainian soldier on a tiny island in the Black Sea didn't hold back when threatened with bombing by a Russian warship as Moscow continued its assault on Ukrainian territory.

According to a purported audio exchange, as the Russians approached Snake Island, also known as Zmiinyi Island, the Russian officer says: "This is a military warship. This is a Russian military warship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and needless casualties. Otherwise, you will be bombed.”

A Ukrainian soldier responds: "Russian warship, go f*** yourself.”

Those were the final known words heard from the island.

All 13 Ukrainian defenders were killed in a Russian bombardment Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.  "All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously," Zelensky said.

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

If the russians had air superiority I would agree.

The russians do have air superiority - they just do not have dominance. I suspect by the end of the weekend they will. They have raped Ukrainian SAM sites and will attrit whatever remaining operational aircraft Ukraine can employ over the next few days.

A10 is E36 M3 and would be knocked out of the sky by any type of anti-air capable adversary.

In reply to stuart in mn :

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/25/ukraine-russia-soldier-exchange-audio-liebermann-dlt-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/

CNN picked it up, and I have seen the audio overlayed on a picture a few times. I hope it's true. It speaks volumes for what the next few years look like for PuttPutt, he's facing an enemy that has an attitiude.

FatMongo said:

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

If the russians had air superiority I would agree.

The russians do have air superiority - they just do not have dominance. I suspect by the end of the weekend they will. They have raped Ukrainian SAM sites and will attrit whatever remaining operational aircraft Ukraine can employ over the next few days.

A10 is E36 M3 and would be knocked out of the sky by any type of anti-air capable adversary.

You need to brush up on your definitions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_supremacy

06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

From reports i'm seeing on BBC, this hasn't been a walk in the park for Russian forces.  the Ukraine defence ministry says 1000 Russian soldiers killed.  The UK Armed Forces Minister told members of parliment that 450 Russian soldiers and 194 Ukrainians, including 57 civilians have been killed.  If Putin doesn't get this wrapped up quickly, this could be a quagmire of epic proportions.  BBC now reports that Ukrainian military vehicles are entering Kyiv to defend the city.  They aren't going down without a fight.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447

1,000 KIA number is total BS - that is the equivalent of two US battalions. That would also imply about 3000-4000 WIA. If the the Russian forces were taking losses to that extent - they wouldnt be advancing as rapidly as they are.

Ukranian men, aged 18-60, are not allowed to leave Ukraine

Zelensky is a likeable and charismatic leader. He needs to leave Kiev to lead a resistance from Poland. He seems intent on martyring himself however. 

FatMongo said:

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

If the russians had air superiority I would agree.

The russians do have air superiority - they just do not have dominance. I suspect by the end of the weekend they will. They have raped Ukrainian SAM sites and will attrit whatever remaining operational aircraft Ukraine can employ over the next few days.

A10 is E36 M3 and would be knocked out of the sky by any type of anti-air capable adversary.

you have some interesting.... "opinions".

Day 1, Russia losses nearing 1000, Ukraine is holding out, and if the attitudes on Snake Island persist, Russia is never going to win this war.

Boris said "nothing is off the table" in terms of sending weapons. I hope other NATO countries do the same. A bunch of tanks, fighters, and A10s would stop this thing quickly.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17771250/boris-johnson-vows-nothing-off-the-table/

bobzilla said:

FatMongo said:

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

If the russians had air superiority I would agree.

The russians do have air superiority - they just do not have dominance. I suspect by the end of the weekend they will. They have raped Ukrainian SAM sites and will attrit whatever remaining operational aircraft Ukraine can employ over the next few days.

A10 is E36 M3 and would be knocked out of the sky by any type of anti-air capable adversary.

you have some interesting.... "opinions".

Im sure you have numerous combat deployments as an infantryman that put my single one to shame, so please school me.

In reply to tuna55 :

Thanks chief. I dont give a E36 M3 what wikipedia says - I can read opensource orders of battle and TOEs.

One of the more interesting things I've noticed is the lack of apparent Ukrainian equipment. 

We see some pictures of jets. We see bombed airports with seemingly not many jets burning on the ground. 

In this way, Ukraine doesn't have much to lose in terms of equipment. It's equipment is MANPADS, Javs and NLAWS. That's stuff that's far easier to move around and poses a much more "expensive" threat. 

I'm still a bit baffled that Moscow chose this route over acting as a "peacekeeper" *laughs* in the Donbas. They're thought is "well we'll remove the aggressive and Pro-West leadership, then we'll be able to establish a puppet state to prevent atrocities against Russian people in Donbas." But for whatever reason the Kremlin has completely ignored the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainians dont want them there. 

Streetwiseguy said:

If you were a Ukrainian citizen of a certain age, you grew up in the Soviet Union.  You may even have a certain "Meh" attitude, figuring that being part of Russia is better than having your country torn to bits and landing in an early grave.  It's entirely possible that being a Russian isn't the horrible experience we've been told it is.

Putin is a douche.  He's the playground bully, and will do what he wants, and the cost of standing up to him is a wedgie of the worst sort.  

 

Edit:  Also, I'm pretty sure resistance movements take a while to form.  Individual acts of defiance are common, and futile probably, but proper damage takes time and organisation.

Sounds like a lot of stuff from the Russian propaganda programs.  If you're Ukrainian of a certain age probably remember the Soviet Union as being unable to feed people and causing Chernobyl.

Again, Russia has oppressed Ukraine for hundreds of years.  You don't ban a native language and get looked upon favorably by the populace.  You don't starve their people (Stalin) and end up beloved.

Are there some over there that love Russia? Probably.  But one of the most powerful videos I've seen from this is an older woman telling a Russian soldier he "doesn't belong here and he should put seeds in his pockets so flowers will grow where he dies."

That isn't "meh"

Im curious to see what 02Pilot's take on the last 12 hours or so of events is. 

There is heavy fighting about Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. I am sure soon in Kyiv to.

In reply to FatMongo :

Don't be a dick. Are you trying to shut this down?

93EXCivic said:

There is heavy fighting about Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. I am sure soon in Kyiv to.

This is apparently what the inside of Kiev looked like a few hours ago (Those guys are Ukrainians - and for their sake I hope tuna is right that the Russian do not in fact have air superiority):

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

Don't be a dick. Are you trying to shut this down?

Probably.

In reply to tuna55 :

I mean that sounds great in theory but I see two big problems a lack of trained operators and two actually delivering any of this equipment to Ukraine in time.

bobzilla said:

In reply to FatMongo :

Don't be a dick. Are you trying to shut this down?

Sorry for being a dick.

Please explain the life expectancy of an A-10 over a battlefield occupied by a modern A-A/S-A capable adversary.

This is one of the few times I can remember since The Falklands where the US isn't directly involved in the fighting.  I don't have any faith that ANY reports from ANYBODY are worth E36M3 so I'm not invested in any of this.  I've reconciled with myself that I'm only going to see this in the rear-view mirror, and frankly, I'm more worried about international commodity pricing than I am about the daily blow-by-blow.   This fighter pilot story, while romantic, strikes me as PR of the first degree...  

Streetwiseguy said:

If you were a Ukrainian citizen of a certain age, you grew up in the Soviet Union.  You may even have a certain "Meh" attitude, figuring that being part of Russia is better than having your country torn to bits and landing in an early grave.  It's entirely possible that being a Russian isn't the horrible experience we've been told it is.

Putin is a douche.  He's the playground bully, and will do what he wants, and the cost of standing up to him is a wedgie of the worst sort.  

 

Edit:  Also, I'm pretty sure resistance movements take a while to form.  Individual acts of defiance are common, and futile probably, but proper damage takes time and organisation.

Prior to the start of this 73% of Ukrainians did not want to be part of Russia. Only 10% did. I doubt that number has gone up since the start of this.

Nationalism has been at all time high it seems since 2014.

93EXCivic said:

In reply to tuna55 :

I mean that sounds great in theory but I see two big problems a lack of trained operators and two actually delivering any of this equipment to Ukraine in time.

You're likely right. If I were NATO, I would have had this stuff at the ready weeks ago and been quietly training and handing over keys to things. If Russia can deny stupidly obvious E36 M3, so can we, right?

Why those must be Ukrainian Abrahms tanks and A10s. Weird. I don't see an invoice for those Apaches either, they must have gotten them surplus.

Worryingly there are reports of higher then normal radiation around Chernobyl...

93EXCivic said:

Worrying there are reports of higher then normal radiation around Chernobyl...

I hear that. I think it's likely that simply driving heavy machinery over the grounds would cause that.

I also still do not understand the rationale for taking the power plant. What could they do? If they destroy the sarcophagus then they just slowly pollute Europe. Why? What's the reason? It's the least rational target for a Russian invasion of basically every place in Ukraine.