History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Duke said:

93EXCivic said:

It would be great if world leaders could stop being vajajays and trying to start wars.

I respectfully submit that they are not being vajayjays; they are instead being papeepees.

 

I will carefully consider the proper categorization for this class, and if it be proper to refer to them as vajayjays or papeepees. Obviously either category has negative connotations, but there are subtle differences in the colloquial use of each term which must be carefully weighed.

tuna55 said:

Duke said:

93EXCivic said:

It would be great if world leaders could stop being vajajays and trying to start wars.

I respectfully submit that they are not being vajayjays; they are instead being papeepees.

 

I will carefully consider the proper categorization for this class, and if it be proper to refer to them as vajayjays or papeepees. Obviously either category has negative connotations, but there are subtle differences in the colloquial use of each term which must be carefully weighed.

To paraphase Team America, there are three kinds of people in the world, dicks, Bob Costas and shiny happy people.

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

The bad thing about the Chinese taking Taiwan is that that is where a lot of our microchips are manufactured. They would be cutting off a major supply chain for us and they know it. This is probably why Texas Instruments is building a new semiconductor plant in Sherman, Texas. Long global supply chains are not a good thing anymore.

They never were a good thing for anybody but shareholders

Theoretical question:  If Ukraine comes back under Russian control, what are the odds that Putin says, "yeah, that's all we wanted, thanks!", or does he go all Blues Brothers U.S.S.R. edition and try to put the band back together? 

"Hey, Poland, you're looking pretty good up there..."

Nations don't really have a God-given right to sovereignty.  The world map we have now has a pretty short timeline in the scheme of history.  And in this case, you've got people of Russian ethnicity in the Ukraine who are in favor of Russia annexing them.  I don't really know that it's in our interests, or even our responsibility, to keep that from happening.  

https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-ukraine/

Oh, right.  Because Democracy!  

Figured it might be a good time to post this. It's a few years old (2017), but you get the general idea. The balance does not favor Russia. Much as Khrushchev tried in 1962, Putin is attempting to redress the imbalance by outmaneuvering his opponents and presenting them with a fait accompli. How far he will go, or how it will work out, is anyone's guess.

As far as Putin trying to recreate the Soviet Union geographically, he's working on, at least facing west. He has a puppet in Belarus (Lukashenko) and is certainly pressuring Ukraine. The Baltics are not on the table here, obviously. But that is a very different thing to recreating the Warsaw Pact, which simply isn't going to happen; it would require territorial control of countries that are now part of NATO, and if that happens there's going to be a lot of shooting before anyone knows exactly how to divide and organize whatever's left.

My point is do we really care? The Ukraine is Putin's backyard. Yeah. Maybe we can put more economic sanctions on Russia. They are used to that. Sending troops almost to the Russian border to possibly start World War 3? Run up the Federal Deficit even more to fund a war. For what? For oil? For Democracy? We don't do well at nation building. I predict Putin will march in and we will make some kind of strongly worded statement at the UN. We didn't really care about Afghanistan in the end either. 

It would be like us taking over Cuba tomorrow. Maybe Putin would send a strongly worded letter about how they kinda sorta used to be part of their Communist Bloc before that fell apart and they became an oligarchy. Would Putin send his navy off to the Coast of Florida to fight out troops in our backyard along with all the crazy Cuban ex-patriots heading south from Miami? Would he really want to fight with no supply line for a country he probably doesn't want and doesn't need? Should we? The European countries are kind of wishy washy about the whole thing. They may not be much support. I'm not sure the American people are very gung ho right now about bringing Democracy to the Ukraine. They are worried more about gas prices and stupid high rents.

Biden has stated he will not be sending troops over there

I think the real issue is that Putin is logging into GRM daily to check this thread to see what the brilliant minds in America think of the situation.

Part of the reason why the world will be watching the US and EU responses to the situation in the Ukraine is to gauge how willing the US is to commit itself when things get tough for a friendly government. In international relations, credibility matters. I don't think the US has sufficient interests to put people in harms way to save Ukraine, but you can bet that Taiwan will be a lot more nervous about the US commitment to them, as will many others, if the US just walks away and shrugs. The US policy of arms sales and military advising was a non-committal way to assist without getting stuck in a bad situation. Most US options are financial, and the Russians are not as susceptible as a country like Iran. Sanctions are of limited use, especially on energy, because the EU is so dependent that they will never go along with them. The EU arguably has much more to lose by Russia weakening or occupying Ukraine, but they are also in no position to do anything militarily. Their options are thin because they have budgeted themselves into military irrelevance for anything but last-ditch self-defense.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

I kinda dig what you're laying down here.  And I doubt Mr. P would go after Poland, next.  For one thing, Poland's got kindof a pretty decent military, and for the other, Poland's NATO, so at that point everyone would get dragged in.  If I'm right, Ukraine goes back under the Soviet umbrella, and everyone settles down like they did post-Crimea.  If I'm wrong, well, then it's time to make a stand.  

I understand Poland and Belarus are having a bit of a tiff lately, too, which makes sense given the pro-Russian sympathies of Lukashenko

How this translates to Taiwan is trickier.  The US has far more of a vested interest there, but China is also more of an economic force to be reckoned with.  I have heard that some CEOs right now are privately lamenting having any commercial ties with China, and wish they didn't.  That stuff can take awhile to unwind, and there could be serious supply chain shocks if Taiwan falls.  

tuna55 said:

I think the real issue is that Putin is logging into GRM daily to check this thread to see what the brilliant minds in America think of the situation.

Dude now that we have this.  Could the football players react to all the excellent advice me and my sons scream at the tv. 

Didn't Ukraine have the world's third largest nuclear arsenal and give it up for the NPT? If the world does not protect Ukraine's sovereignty, how much ability to convince remaining countries to join the NPT is lost?

Maybe Biden could send Putin a puppy. Other leaders have sent Putin puppies. Putin loves puppies.

We need to do a little doggie diplomacy.

In reply to matthewmcl :

I think the NPT carrot has been gone for a while now. Everybody saw what happened when Gaddafi gave up his program. 

I don't buy that Ukraine is really like Taiwan at all, or that either situation is like the Sudentenland pre WWII. Military power dynamics (Nukes, really), geography, and the influence of commerce/globalization seem very different in all three situations.

Absolutely agree that Putin checks the forums daily though. 

In reply to 02Pilot :

02Pilot,

I appreciate reading your analysis. You have a good grasp of foreign policy and a good analytical mind. Im assuming you did this professionally at some point.

The Russians will encroach into Ukraine here in the next few weeks - Putin has nothing to lose and he revels in making the US and West look impotent as now one is going to expend troops for Ukraine (nor should we). The level and competency of Ukrainian resistance will determine wether the Russians push all the way West to Kiev or not. 

I do think a long term occupation of Ukraine will be costly for the Russians in the long term (Western backed Ukrainian insurgency).

volvoclearinghouse said:

And in this case, you've got people of Russian ethnicity in the Ukraine who are in favor of Russia annexing them.

Mostly in Eastern Ukraine. I highly doubt from what I have seen from Ukrainian politics and from the Ukrainian people this is even remotely close to the majority.

I think it will be very bloody if Putin tries to take all of Ukraine. The Ukrainian armed forces are much better equipped and trained then in 2014 and I am pretty sure they won't go the route of the Afghan military.

I'm just tired of Ukraine and Poland being everybody's doormat on their way to/from invasions across the continent.  I'd love for them to get a chance to run their own affairs for a while.

In reply to FatMongo :

Thanks. I have a graduate degree in national security and have been teaching history and international relations at the college level for two decades; whether that meets the requirements of "professionally" I'll leave for you to decide.

In reply to stroker :

Geography is a very difficult thing to overcome.

The basic update to this seems to be: 

- The US makes a non-specific threat if there is an invasion. 

- Germanys foreign minister also warns Russia.  The new chancellor (just happened) may not be as worried about the loss of NG since she is from the Green party (although I suspect she has no plans to replace that power with nukes!)

- Inclusion of Ukraine into NATO (which Russia most fears) seems like a serious non-starter (lots of corruption issue if nothing else apparently)

- Having that many troops just sitting there is still really expensive...

- Putin might be looking for a bit of a "distraction":  https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/state-russian-economy-balancing-political-and-economic-priorities/

the huge gap in Russian society between the “haves” and the “have-nots,” and the blatant indifference of the elite toward what has become the greatest divide and potential cause of future unrest in Russian society today...

....The Kremlin’s style of rule at home and confrontation with the West abroad have boxed it in. Over the next five years, Russia’s economy will barely grow, the country’s government forecasts predict. Given such dismal projections, in the absence of a new foreign crisis to rally around, Russians will probably judge the Kremlin’s policies to be stale. But stale can be stable, even if Putin’s approval rating slips further.… Russians are sadly used to economic stagnation and ineffective government—and they are unlikely to be offered an alternative anytime soon....

Some have mentioned potential restriction from the SWIFT system if they invade.  Not sure who has that power, but it would effectively eliminate any bank transfers outside of Russia.  This would likely be one of those punishments that might actually encourage bad behavior because it would be so harsh (e.g. pushed into a corner).

Poland is the doormat of empires(!)  As some may remember, Russia invaded Poland at the same time Germany did!

02 might have some more enlightened observations on this.

Russia has started to show its cards: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59696450

Basically, Russia wants permanent exclusion of Ukraine (and Georgia)  from consideration as NATO members, and severe restrictions on military deployments in Poland and the Baltics. None of this is going to happen. This is clearly an attempt by Russia to leverage NATO, to divide the member states and leadership, and hopefully open opportunities for diplomatic and domestic opinion gains. The Russians want to negotiate with the US, while the EU wants to negotiate with the Russians and the Ukrainians.

The Poles and Balts will be screaming for increased protection, something that Germany and France are loathe to offer, and that the US has dialed back somewhat under the current administration, and Ukraine wants preemptive sanctions. If the West does any of these, they would serve Russia's internal political needs well if enacted. If it doesn't, mutual trust between NATO nations will be weakened, which also serves Russia's interests.

The other aspect of this I heard recently is that the units at the boarder have been abandoning some of their equipment (tanks etc) to the Ukrainian separatists.  I cannot imagine this was all a convoluted attempt to resupply the separatists, but it appears to be a at least a secondary benefit.

Antihero (Forum Supporter) said:

Christmas is in early January in the Ukraine I believe

Yes.  Friday Jan 7th.  Orthodox Christians use the Julian Calendar whereas non-Orthodox folks use the Gregorian.

And Russia starts the play by stopping gas supplies to EMEA reduce rates to 4%.  This sounds a lot like the threat and distraction to prevent any support for an Xmas invasion.  Dear goodness, and we all know they will get away with it completely.