History in the Making: Russian Invasion

VikkiDp said:

Hi everyone!!!

this morning(when i typing it it's about 12 am) FOR legion, Russian volunteers corps and Siberian battalion made a joint announcement

-translation- 

9.14 am

we once again appeal to the residents of the Kursk and Belhorod regions!

Your government has taken no action to protect you and evacuate you and shelling of peaceful cities and villages in Ukraine continues as before!

We are forced to return fire on military facilities in the border regions.

Evacuate immediately!

-translation- 

10.34 am

Attention!

all residents of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions who do not have time or are unable to evacuate, get to shelter immediately!

 

*all screen shots are from official channels

Looks like people are listening!

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768331960437325937

I will admit I do like the disruption.  People can believe lies, but only for so long in the face of reality.  I'm curious to see how this will play out, and how it will be reported by russian channels.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

For us westerners, I'm learning more and more that we REALLY have no idea what it's like for a russian outside of the major cities.

A lot of US veterans saw something similar once they got home.  A lot of folk that weren't there have no clue what Iraq or Afghanistan is like outside of the major cities, and they assume that those cities are just... what its like.  So many politicians, talking heads, and the like just have no clue what they're talking about over there

I wonder how much that repeats with Russia.  From the brief things I've read online, it feels very similar.

It's election day(s) in Russia.  They apparently do it over 3 days.  Anyone else sitting next to the TV anxiously awaiting the returns?!  It could be a close one!

I do wonder if the stepping up of drone attacks and the incursion by the Russian group into Russia has a positive or negative effect on wanting Putin re-elected.  People could say we want this to stop, so don't want him, or say we have to stop these Nazi's that are ruthlessly attacking us and want him to stay.  Hard to say.  But, realistically, the vast majority only know what he wants them to know, so probably not a big effect.

Here is a quote from a Russian I found online:

I don't think people quite realize the purpose of the elections in authoritarian and totalitarian countries - obviously, it's not letting people make any choices.

It's a ritual to demonstrate unity and support of the ruling powers. That's why the USSR held elections for over 70 years, despite their always being a single party in the ballot and a permanent 99% support rate. It's sending a message: "You, who are against the current course? You are alone. Everyone, absolutely everyone else support the leader and what he is doing"

Russian elections are the same thing. It's a demonstration from Putin to his elites, loyalists and to the world that and he is strong and powerful enough to get the necessary result and keep his grip on Russia. So what matters is not the choices people make, but getting (by any means necessary) this picture of "80% for Putin" for external and internal purposes.

Of course Putin can, and likely will, claim that at least Russia has elections, they don't even allow those in (Nazi controlled) Ukraine!   (They are currently suspended of course because someone has invaded them)

In reply to aircooled :

The trouble with free elections is, you never know who is going to win. -Leonid Brezhnev

In reply to 02Pilot :

Isn't there a related quote from the USSR about "It's not who gets the most votes that counts, it's who counts the votes."?

Seems like things are going well.... nice to see some resistance.

Anyone here familiar with this website www.jamestown.org ?  

https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arms-storage-bases/

In reply to Noddaz :

The Jamestown Foundation is a DC think tank (big surprise). It goes back to the 1980s and was set up to support Soviet defectors, with at least tacit support from Bill Casey's CIA. They're generally regarded as fairly right-wing, though what that means in the current environment is a lot murkier than it was in the 1980s.

My guess on the assessment linked above is that it is a bit optimistic in their draw down.  They certainly have been drawing down and using reserves but I am not sure the spells any short term issues as seems to be implied, especially considering the state of vehicle warfare currently in Ukraine, where a T-90 is only marginally more useful than a T-60 since both can be almost as easily taken out by an ATM (mine or missile) or drone.  The note about Russia looking for a ceasefire seems to be hard to justify.  The general consensus seems to be ore that Russia is preparing for an offensive in the summer, which is very contrary to what the article is stating.

A recent assessment I saw was saying Russia can realistically continue it's war for something like 2-3 more years.  What will be the state of the equipment in the army at that point?  Probably rather poor I would imagine.  Not like it's great now though.

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A map of recent Ukrainian refinery attacks.  14 out of 30 they have.  As most are aware, Russia is effectively a petro state and that obviously where most all of their money is coming from.  Seems like an excellent strategy, depending on how disruptive it actually is.   The recent note that someone posted about restricting exports seems to indicate it is, at least somewhat.

Some more info on the anticipated Russian offensive.  The basic strokes are that the Russian are trying to keep some of the front dynamic, so as to not give the Ukrainians a chance to build defenses.  The critical variable here of course is the aid that Ukraine requires to resist, which seems like a pretty big concern at this point.  At some point, as Macron seems to be saying (at least in regards to Europe), we can either help them fight, or wait, and have to do it ourselves....

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Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months. Russian forces are attempting to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilizing their defensive lines.[1] Russian forces are particularly concentrating on pushing as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a harder-to-penetrate line in the area.[2] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 15 that Russian forces have concentrated their efforts on the Avdiivka direction and have been conducting daily mechanized and infantry assaults in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.[3] Although Ukrainian forces have recently been able to slow Russian advances west of Avdiivka, pervasive materiel shortages caused by delays in Western security assistance appear to be forcing Ukraine to prioritize limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less-well-provisioned sectors and making the frontline overall more fragile than it appears despite the current relatively slow rate of Russian advances.[4] Russian forces will continue to use the advantages provided by possessing the theater-wide initiative to dynamically reweight their offensive efforts this spring and into the summer, likely in hopes of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities.[5] Russian forces may be pressing their attempts at a breakthrough before difficult weather and terrain conditions in spring will likely constrain effective mechanized maneuver on both sides of the line and further limit Russian capabilities to make significant tactical advances while the ground is still muddy.[6] Russian forces have intensified offensive operations during similar conditions before, however, and Russian forces may seek to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations through spring regardless of difficult weather and terrain conditions in an effort to exploit Ukrainian materiel shortages before promised Western security assistance arrives in Ukraine.[7]

Ukrainian and Western officials are increasingly warning about both significant Ukrainian materiel shortages and a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer.[8] The intent and design of the Russian Summer 2024 offensive effort is not immediately clear and likely will not be until Russian forces launch it, but the Russian military command likely intends to capitalize on any gains it makes in the coming weeks as well as on forecasts that the Ukrainian military may be even less-well-provisioned this summer than it is now. Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.[9]

Then we have Medvedev.  This of course is classic (ala 02's teaching) negotiating tactics.  It's a bit like offering someone $10,000 for their obviously $15,000 car as a start of negotiations (see Pawn Stars for many many references).  Offering $15,000 will only likely result in them wanting more since you are clearly willing to go that far.

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Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.”

In reply to aircooled :

Isn't that a bit more like starting negotiations by offering full price for the car if another one on the lot is thrown in?

This is interesting.

Russia sees polling station protests as Putin set to extend long rule

A woman told the CNN team, “This is the first time in my life I have ever seen a queue for elections.” Asked why she had come at that hour, she simply replied: “You know why. I think everybody in this queue knows why.”

Article from the WSJ about a Chzech effort to obtain shells for Ukraine by hook or by crook. The outline is they are acting like a middleman between western buyers and sellers who may not want to do business directly with US/NATO.  For a nation of 10M people, they are punching above their weight.

“We are like hobbits—small and peaceful, but in a moment of crisis we jump to forge alliances with much more powerful countries and deliver results,” Kopecny said, referring to the diminutive heroes of J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” saga.

Kopecny, wearing socks depicting the Kremlin engulfed in flames, said the Czech Republic’s past as a Soviet satellite informed his country’s tough line on the war. Its government sees a Russian defeat in Ukraine as imperative and doesn’t believe in negotiating with President Vladimir Putin. 

Emphasis added is mine. As a person of Czech heritage I support this.

Another delightfully dry analysis from Perun, this time on the collapse of russian arms exports:

In reply to DarkMonohue :

I listened to that this past weekend.  I thought it was very good.

"Not a single Ukranian POW saw a Red Cross rep while in Russian captivity."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/18/7447024/

The result are in.  As might not be surprising, no one thinks these number are real.  I mean it's just stupid.  Who would possibly believe someone in Russia would vote against Putler?!!?!  Suicide wish?

I do wonder how they got the other numbers... suspiciously close to each other... 

In reply to aircooled :

"Only" 87%?  That should count as a loss!

Apparently US companies may be supplying intel to Russia for strikes in Ukraine.

Reddit Source

Actual article

A Ukrainian military source told me he believes that Russia’s long-range strikes, by cruise missiles that are among the most costly weapons in its nonnuclear arsenal, are aimed using satellite imagery provided by U.S. companies. He says the sequence is clear: A satellite snaps pictures of a site, then some days or weeks later a missile lands. Sometimes another satellite is sent to capture additional images afterward, perhaps to check the extent of the damage. “The number of coincidences, where the images are followed by strikes, is too high to be random,” the source told me. (I agreed not to name him because he is not authorized to speak publicly.)

 

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence. But the suspicious cases have added up, and because many satellite-imagery companies offer a backlist of archived images, marked with dates and coordinates, it’s possible to browse tens of thousands of images taken of Ukraine and notice suggestive patterns. In the week before April 2, 2022, about a month after Russia’s initial invasion, images of a remote airfield outside Myrhorod, Ukraine, were requested from American companies at least nine times. Myrhorod is not a particularly interesting place, apart from that airfield. On April 2, missiles landed there. In the week that followed, someone asked for images of the airfield again. Satellite imaging has preceded strikes in urban areas as well: In Lviv, just before March 26, 2022, someone tasked a satellite with looking at a factory used for military-armor production. It, too, was struck. In late January of this year, someone commissioned a commercial-satellite company to take fresh images of Kyiv, just before the city was hit by a missile barrage.

In reply to aircooled :

Maybe I'm paranoid, but I'd still hate to be even the *puppet* adversary to a tyrant. Just... when they decide to make a point, you're already well positioned as a bad guy

I ran across some interesting drone related videos that might be of interest.  The first is short one about FPV drones while the second is more general and longer.  That last 10 min or so of the second one is of particular interest and speaks to some of the reason why there have been so much drone action inside Russia (new Ukrainian drones developed in Ukraine).

Of note (regarding the $1500 cost of FPV drones talked about in this first video): 

ONE 155mm shell costs around $2000....

Seems to me that if you had a supply of small engines and a pile of 3d printers you could become part of the Military/Industrial complex pretty frickin' fast...

aircooled said:

Seems like things are going well.... nice to see some resistance.

 

 

Saw this guy's video on the election, sadly it seems that a good fraction of the "protestors" were basically tricked into doing it as a prank (warning - language):

The video also goes into some details on the surprisingly high-effort Rube Goldberg-ian processes Russia goes through with their fake elections.

It reminds me of how they keep people they don't like from winning elections for municipal-level positions like mayor not by simply keeping them off the ballot, but by letting them run and then hiring lookalikes to legally change their names to match the undesirable candidate and putting them on the same ballot.

Edit: example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/three-near-identical-boris-vishnevskys-on-st-petersburg-election-ballot

In reply to GameboyRMH :

You beat me to it!  I was just coming in here to post that video!