History in the Making: Russian Invasion

There is an interesting video of a Ukrainian drone attacking the Russian the Kuibyshev oil refinery.  Two things of interest:  The drone makes a turn for the final attack, meaning it is either under control (unlikely?) or has some sort of rather sophisticated guidance(!).  Also the refinery is WELL into Russia. That's some impressive range!

The Ukrainian attacks may be part of the reason for the recent rise in gas (oil) prices in the US, though seasonally, that does normally happen, so maybe?  I think they can still affect world prices (?)  Still a world market.

The latest rumor involves these blue shirted attendees to the concert, who seem to be less concerned than others.  One seems to be involved with the arrest also(!?) 

Why would they all wear blue?  Maybe... shoot people, but don't shoot anyone wearing blue.  Then again, I am not sure there is much reason for them to be on site if they were just going to let them go to be arrested later.

The only strange thing about the "Russia did it to themselves" angle, for me, is why would the US and the west have information on an attack that the Russians were staging?  I mean, they certainly could have leaked things to make it more creditable, but having the US warn them of an attack they are trying to (at least partially) blame on the west doesn't look good.

Apropos of not much other than it is automotive related and I was not aware of it. 

June 14 2022

By Phil McCausland

A Russian car company stymied by international sanctions over the country’s invasion of Ukraine resumed production last week but the manufacturer was forced to eliminate key safety features, including air bags, on the latest version of its popular sedan.

Avtovaz halted the production of its Lada brand in March and furloughed many of its workers because it was not able to acquire certain parts due to the sanctions. But, after the Russian government's decision to slash safety regulations, assembly lines roared back to life.

As a result, the company’s affordable four-door passenger car Lada Granta, will no longer feature air bags, anti-lock braking systems, electronic stability control or emergency retraction locks on seat belts. It also fails to fulfill the 21st century emission standards adopted by many of Russia’s neighbors.

Russian SU-27 supposedly shot down by Russian Air Defense

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bpysg9/a_new_footage_of_a_russian_su27_shot_down_by/

The suspected "agent" in the pics above was found to be a Russian oil company worker.

Russia made a significant wave of attacks last night.  I am guessing as some revenge for the Moscow attack (!):

The Russians also continue to build a rail line that effectively bypasses the Kerch bridge.  I think it's only built out to around Mariupol at this point.

Well it's really bad that this was happening, but it's good that they've put a stop to it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/crypto-transfers-to-russian-exchange-worth-20-billion-probed-by-us-uk

NOHOME said:

Apropos of not much other than it is automotive related and I was not aware of it. 

 

June 14 2022

By Phil McCausland

A Russian car company stymied by international sanctions over the country’s invasion of Ukraine resumed production last week but the manufacturer was forced to eliminate key safety features, including air bags, on the latest version of its popular sedan.

Avtovaz halted the production of its Lada brand in March and furloughed many of its workers because it was not able to acquire certain parts due to the sanctions. But, after the Russian government's decision to slash safety regulations, assembly lines roared back to life.

As a result, the company’s affordable four-door passenger car Lada Granta, will no longer feature air bags, anti-lock braking systems, electronic stability control or emergency retraction locks on seat belts. It also fails to fulfill the 21st century emission standards adopted by many of Russia’s neighbors.

Are they going to reintroduce the 2107?

An interesting thing I ran across that speaks alot to how the Russians communicate.  If Vicky is reading, I would be curious how this relates to Ukraine, if they have any similar tendencies, which I haven't noticed(?)

vranyo

Essentially, Russia has a word for lying (and this goes way back), that is not just lying, but more along the lines of "Yes, I know you know I am lying, and I don't care, and the fact that I know that, F you, I don't care what you think, you should not even ask" or as noted in the article:

You know I’m lying, and I know that you know, and you know that I know that you know, but I go ahead with a straight face, and you nod seriously and take notes.

This sort of lying is VERY apparent in many of the Russian official communications.  E.g. Prigozhin was killed when someone brought a bomb on board the plane (BTW, if you F with us, someone may "bring a bomb" on your plane)

The bloody and terrible war in Ukraine has been accompanied by a war of words. One of the more frequent words heard in the Russian media is vranyo, which means a “lie”. The Russian government and media have hurled it at Ukraine and its allies, accusing them of exaggerating the devastating effects of its “special military operation” while Ukraine’s Russian speakers have used it to describe Russia’s apparently ad-libbed alternative explanations for the destruction wrought in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere. Vranyo, though, is not as simple as just a “lie” – it means more than that.

Russian has two words for truth, istina and pravda, and it also has two words for lies: lozh (ложь) and vranyo (враньё). Look them up in a dictionary, and you’ll find them cross-referencing each other, which isn’t much help. The English press has sometimes translated the former just as a “lie” and the latter as a “bald-faced lie”. That starts to get at the difference but isn’t quite there.

Lozh originates with the verb lgat’, the act of lying – the noun describes an untruth. Lozh is the word the US government used to translate Biden’s inaugural pronouncement that: “There is truth and there are lies,” and to connect it to the “stream of lies” coming out of Russia about Ukraine.

Vranyo is a noun formed from a different verb, vrat’. That verb also means “to lie”, but it has a more colloquial, pejorative flavour. Vranyo has a dismissive feel: it is a lie that no one would take seriously, an excuse or a ducking of responsibility. It can be a mindless fib, like the story of how the dog ate your homework, or a tall tale.....

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-vranyo-russian-for-when-you-lie-and-everyone-knows-it-but-you-dont-care-181100

In reply to aircooled :

Now I'm curious as to what an AI language study of the Russian press could decipher from all that. I know what's available to the public would probably go pretty dang far and whatever the military has access to might already be doing some very very sophisticated things.

There was a recent video of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian drone factory, well into Russia.  The drone looked suspiciously like a high wing kit plane.  Well.... basically the case.  Considering these planes were designed to carry at least a couple hundred pounds of humans, they can probably carry a pretty good payload (RC equipment of course will weight something).

The Ukrainians apparently have a quite the variety now:

Any idea if those are launched from within Russia? I assume Russia would try to shoot down any aircraft coming across the border from Ukraine. A spoofed transponder would allow a lot more freedom. I'm sure that's in their capability. I have no idea if private aircraft are a thing in Russia.

It seems like some of he smaller ones (and US made Switchblade style drones) are done covertly from within Russia.  The big plane style one though almost certainly has to come from Ukraine.   You would think they would be easy to spot, but I am sure they fly them through the night (at least over the lines) and those planes are mostly composite / fabric, so will not give much of a radar return (maybe some work to shield the engine, which would be the biggest reflector).  Flying very low of course always helps a lot (limits detection range).  Probably some other tricks involved also (jamming, decoys etc).

My big question would be how are they navigating and acquiring targets that far into Russia with all the jamming going on.  I suspect there is a lot less jamming past the combat areas, so maybe they can pick up GPS?  Again, another issue of Russia having to spread around jammers all over Russia and spreading themselves thin.  You will note, that the attack shown below is during daylight.

I would also think that dropping the wheels (clearly not needed after take off) is done, or a good idea, since they would give a good return also, but looking at the video (below) clearly shows them still there (maybe in case it has to turn back?)

The A22 specs:

Performance

• Maximum speed: 170 km/h (110 mph, 92 kn)
• Cruise speed: 160 km/h (99 mph, 86 kn)
• Stall speed: 55 km/h (34 mph, 30 kn)

So it's capable of flying at very low speeds.  Remember the Chinese spy balloon and people wondering why we didn't see it on radar before?  They had set filters to remove radar clutter.  One was low speed objects.  Even if they don't have those filters, fly it at low attitude and following main roads. 

Well... speaking of drones, sounds like the Ukrainians made a rather significant attack in the Rostov area (south eastern).  Note that the Russians claimed 44 drones (!).  Whatever the reality, it certainly speaks to likely a lot of drones.

The destruction of tactical jets is significant since one of the big issues the Ukrainians have is with Russians using glide bombs, that can be launched from behind the lines out of SAM range.  They have also started using very large (1500 lb I believe) versions.  They are not terribly accurate (not like a JDAM), but they are effectively free shots.  They of course recently moved around Patriots to snipe some (and likely lost at least part of one them doing that).

Kyiv Confirms Ukrainian Drones Destroyed 6 Russian Planes at Air Base, as Many as 3 Sites Blasted

...The airfield housed Su-24, Su-24M, and Su-34 frontline bombers, which Russia employs to target Ukrainian army positions and frontline cities....

...Russia's defense ministry said it downed 53 Ukrainian drones overnight – 44 over the Rostov region – while the governor said a power station was damaged in the attack....

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30629

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, up to 6 planes were destroyed and 8 damaged at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov region as result of massive drone attack

On the "other front", things are potentially happening with drones and missiles there also (in revenge for Israel deconstructing some Iranian commanders at one of their consulates in Syria):

There are reports of large scale GPS spoofing done by Israeli military at the moment while the country is bracing for a potential missile and drone attack by Iran and its proxies.

Interesting post by Phillip O'Brien, a military historian/economist at St. Andrews. He draws an analogy between the two different bombing strategies we're seeing in Ukraine/Russia and those seen used by the American and British in WWII. 

Ukraine is using more precise bombing to target military production and manufacturing pain points-in this case mostly oil refineries. This mirrors the strategy endorsed by American general Carl Spaatz in WWII. OTOH, Russia is indiscriminately destroying cities in hopes of breaking Ukraine's will to fight, which mirrors the strategy of General Harris of the UK. 

O'brien is unabashedly pro-ukraine but refrains from saying which strategy will be more effective in 2024.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/part-2-strategic-bombing-update-are

Screen cap from the article. Russian Oil production is down 14% since the campaign started: 

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

Spaatz was actually an advocate of the Transportation Plan, while Walt Rostow championed the Oil Plan, which was only adopted fairly late in the war. Rostow complained bitterly that, had it been adopted earlier, the war could have been shortened considerably (a claim disputed by several members of the port-war USSBS). The RAF approach was indeed more an area bombing effort, though that is a commonly accepted oversimplification; there were a number of changes, sometimes driven by technological innovation, during the war.

There is some good literature on the Allied strategic bombing effort. Robert S. Ehlers Jr.'s Targeting the Third Reich: Air Intelligence and the Allied Bombing Campaigns is a good place to start.

I would also say the Russia's attacks are not generally focused on the destruction of cities.  There are definitely mostly targeting infrastructure (power mostly) and military targets. The British (and late in the war the US also, using fire bombing) just area bombed cities. They have made some significant civilian hits, though in some cases it's not entirely clear whether that was the intent, or it was just bad targeting or bad aim.

I guess you could say the aim is similar though, to disrupt the lives of civilians and affect there ability to work to support the war effort and eventually break their will to support the war and their government (neither of which was terribly effective in WWII)

The Russians do have a destroy the city strategy in terms of ground combat though.  One of the desired effect is to create a refugee stream which will be a burden on the defenders.  Kind of the same idea that it is better to wound soldiers rather than kill them since a wounded soldier takes wildly more resources for the enemy to deal with. 

In reply to aircooled :

The Russians have no real history or tradition of strategic-level aerial strikes, so they're starting from scratch here. Virtually all the literature I've seen relates to tactical and operational aviation, with the exception of the strategic rocket forces. Sure, they planned a massive nuclear laydown in the 70s and 80s, but even that was operational rather than strategic; the plan as I understand it was basically to drive over the rubble to the Channel coast and declare Europe theirs.

Their biggest problem is the inconsistency of their targeting, both intentional and unintentional. They are very responsive (lots of "revenge" strikes), but aside from energy infrastructure, they don't really have a lot of targets to choose from, since Ukraine is importing most of its vital needs (the US had the same problem in North Vietnam). They're also not especially accurate, and it's impossible to know how many civilian strikes are by design, and how many are just faulty targeting. I'm sure they'd love to break Ukraine's economy by destroying the means of production, but right now it's being artificially stabilized by external entities that are not targetable assets.

Some updates:

The Russians continue to hammer Ukrainians infrastructure / power.  The reducing supply of air defense may be playing a roll in that.  The state of the Ukrainian power grid apparently is getting to state of serious concern.  The largest power plant near Kyiv is now apparently mostly destroyed:

The Russians are also hammering Kharkiv (north eastern area) hard, and appear to be instituting the "Flatten the city, then invade" tactic they have done previously.  The Kharkiv area is certainly a possible area of concentration for the Russian summer offensive.

A summer offensive is highly expected by Russia (probably mostly just throwing more men and equipment at the lines).  There is a warning that Ukraine is becoming critically short on artillery ammunition (even at very low levels of use I believe 10,000 / month is expected use) as well as air defense missiles.

An interesting tactic has appeared.  It has been called the "hanger tank".  It did make a successful foray into the battlefield, but was later found in a warehouse and destroyed.  Certainly speaks to the desperation in trying to defend against drones!

F16's are likely not far away.  How they will be used, is still a question, but will likely be critical to slowing down the Russian summer offensive (lobbing JDAMS etc).

Some comments / quotes I have heard about recently:

- US wants Ukraine in NATO, which mean instant war with NATO:   This has been mentioned previously, but NATO has a clear rule that you CANNOT become a member while involved in a conflict, for this exact reason.

- The war will stop if Russia is negotiated with:  Again, this makes the huge assumption that Russia WANTS to negotiate, which pretty much every indication shows they do not.  They would rather just take what they want at this point.

- The US encourages Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil infrastructure because they are civilian targets:  This of course is NOT going over well in Ukraine and on it's face seems to be a rather absurd request (and may be just to try and keep gas prices low).  I certainly expect Ukraine to ignore this request. 

I also wanted to point people to an interesting and relevant series currently on Netflix call Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War.   It essentially covers the post WWII cold war, up to the invasion of Ukraine, using the war in Ukraine as a sort of reference point at the start of each episode.  I particularly found the later episodes  that detailed the dissolution of the USSR interesting (the last 3 if you just want that) as they essentially flowed that into the rise of Putin.

Probably a pretty pedestrian presentation compared to what O2 can deliver (if you have seen it and want to make some points / clarifications please do), but does seem to give some good perspective and seems to agree with what 02 has been telling us here.

In reply to aircooled :

I haven't seen it, so I can't really comment, but I'll look into it. The diplomatic history of the early Cold War is pretty much what I worked on in the latter phases of graduate school, so I at least feel reasonably qualified to give informed feedback.

To the observations mentioned above, I'll simply offer this: Russia will be happy to stop fighting and begin talking if it means that they have a reasonable chance of retain most or all of what they've gained so far. If not, they'll keep going. The simple fact is that they have zero incentive otherwise, and they are acutely aware of Ukraine's limitations going forward. Getting the fighting to stop is not difficult; getting it to stop as a prelude to a solution considered favorable in the West, let alone in Ukraine, is another matter entirely.

I sure wish I could say something about the Ukraine/Russia war that wasn't political, but I can't.

Hence why I have been absent for months.

Britain plans to transfer the DragonFire laser complex to Ukraine

The maximum range of destruction of air targets remained unknown. During tests, the installation destroyed a drone and caused an artillery mine to explode in less than five seconds.

The radiation of the power plant is invisible and silent, since the wavelength of the beam is 1 μm. It is close to the infrared spectrum of light, and therefore invisible to the human eye.

It is noted that the latest laser installation has high accuracy: it can target a coin at a distance of a kilometer.