In reply to z31maniac :
The Russians have been having a lot of power issues in the recent heat waves. Clearly the crypto miners, not the over stressed, poorly maintained grid, or various power stations the seem to randomly blow up just after hearing the sound of small engines.....
02Pilot said:In reply to aircooled :
If Russia doesn't figure out the water situation, they'll never be able to keep Crimea unless they're willing to turn it into a wasteland.
Pretty sure we know the answer to that one.
A set of maps I ran across that is interesting. I would generally say phrrhic victory generally applies to either side at this point, whatever the actual result. There should probably be a few more in here for possible negotiated results.
I would have to guess at this point the Liberated LDPR is likely the best case potentially possible result for Ukraine, with some possible room in the Crimea area.
CrustyRedXpress said:02Pilot said:In reply to aircooled :
If Russia doesn't figure out the water situation, they'll never be able to keep Crimea unless they're willing to turn it into a wasteland.
Pretty sure we know the answer to that one.
Do we? If Russia turns Crimea into a wasteland, it is essentially an admission of defeat there. If they think they're at risk of losing it, then sure, burn it to the ground, but if they intend to keep it, do they really want to administer a lifeless desert?
In reply to z31maniac :
I'm sure there's some truth to it, plenty of first-world countries have had power grid issues due to cryptomining operations.
In reply to 02Pilot :
My geopolitics is pretty rusty, but I assume Russia would happily turn Crimea into a wasteland if it enabled them to keep Sevastopol.
Is my thinking off here?
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
A large port (Sevastopol) requires a lot of resources and a lot of workers, neither of which match well with a wasteland.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
It's a cost/benefit equation (like most things). Sevastopol is valuable as a naval base, which as noted requires lots of people, who in turn need to be supplied. There are a couple of complicating factors. First, short-term wasteland is fine (see the second half of 1941 for a clear example of this), but long-term wasteland is a problem; the inadvertent draining of the Aral Sea in an ill-fated attempt to produce cotton in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the 1950s and 60s basically made the communities in a wide area around the lake unsustainable, for example. Keeping Crimea Russian means more than just planting a flag on a moonscape - they want a thriving Russian community there to bolster the validity of their claims. Without local water, sustaining that will be hugely expensive.
The second factor is the value of a naval base in the Black Sea, which in turn depends on how valuable a naval force there proves to be in the new security environment. Right now, the Ukrainians have chased most of the Russian navy into the Sea of Azov; if the Black Sea is a long-term no-go area for the Russians, they don't really need Sevastopol. If the settlement at the end of the war results in limits on naval forces, or even the demilitarization of the Black Sea that I have advocated before (but do not consider likely), then Sevastopol's utility may decline.
Ukraine appears to be getting better at taking down the Shahed drones. Reporting they took down 89 in one night!
Still amazed that Putin's bridge is still operational.
NOHOME said:Still amazed that Putin's bridge is still operational.
I have a feeling the Ukrainians are hoping to reacquire the island and do not want to pay the expense of having to rebuild the bridge...
As noted previously, Ukraine militarily taking Crimea would be extremely difficult. It would have to come as the result of negotiation, or abandonment. Crimea historically has not been a super Ukraine aligned area, and certainly there are likely very few there now (or maybe a lot because of the result of the Russian occupation?)
The first batch of American F-16s has already arrived in Ukraine,
The Russians are certainly going to want to takes some shots at these, either in the air (unlikely F-16 will get anywhere close enough for that for a while) or on the ground (which will be an interesting game of hiding / protecting). I suspect at least one of the Patriot systems will be deployed specifically for this task. Destroying or downing an F-16 is not super significant militarily wise, but I am sure is a very large goal propaganda wise.
Reportedly the first shot of an F-16 over Ukraine (looks like a two seater, F-16B):
Some interesting statements coming from Zelenskii:
The Ukrainian people must want a referendum on the territories. But this is not the best option for us, because Putin will consider himself the winner, - Zelenskyi.
▪️The issue of the territorial integrity of Ukraine cannot be resolved by the president alone, without the Ukrainian people.
▪️Ukraine will not give its territories to the Russian Federation, this is against our Constitution.
▪️We can get our territories back through diplomacy. By the end of November, all documents for the second Peace Summit should be ready in Ukraine.
▪️We have prepared 14 brigades, but how can we stop the Russians if only 3 of the 14 brigades are equipped.
stroker said:NOHOME said:Still amazed that Putin's bridge is still operational.
I have a feeling the Ukrainians are hoping to reacquire the island and do not want to pay the expense of having to rebuild the bridge...
They've got no need for the bridge, since the other end is in Russian territory. If they have the ability to take down the bridge, it must not meet the risk/reward balance right now. I assume at least some of the sea drone attacks were focused on it, but that method does not look like it'll work, at least not yet.
Edit: Ukraine likely doesn't have the offensive capability to recapture the Crimean peninsula, even if the supply line from the bridge was cut off. For now, it probably makes more sense to force Russia to commit at least some troops and equipment to defending it, so they can't be used elsewhere. Better to wear Russia down and hope they either abandon it, or cede it in peace talks. For either of those to happen, I'd guess the bridge will have to be brought down, but it just isn't in the cards now, as Russia is too strong elsewhere for the war to end.
In reply to eastsideTim :
Yeah, very good point. The bridge being down is only positive for Ukraine from what I see, and in multiple ways.
Pretty big prisoner swap happening (it's certainly hit the general news). Mostly seems like espionage swaps, though there is a murderer in there. You have to suspect that most (if not all) of the prisoners in Russia are falsely charged. You almost think it might be a good plan to falsely pick up some Russians for insurance in the future... but... laws... morals... get in the way...
....Under the terms of the agreement, 12 political dissidents held in Russia have been released to Germany. Kremlin critic and Washington Post contributor Vladimir Kara-Murza is expected to be flown to Germany, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Thursday. Kara-Murza is a British-Russian citizen and a green card holder. His family lives in the U.S.
In return, Russia will receive eight of its nationals, including three that were being held in U.S. prisons: Vadim Konoshchenok, Vladislav Klyushin and Roman Seleznyov.
Two Russians held in Slovenia, one in Poland and another in Norway are also headed home. All have known or suspected ties to Russian intelligence, according to U.S. officials. They included a husband and wife, Artem Viktorovich Dultsev and Anna Valerevna Dultseva, who were arrested in 2022 and convicted on espionage charges in Slovenia. They were each serving a 19-month sentence. They flew back to Russia with their two children.
Key among the prisoners returned to Russia, according to American officials familiar with the talks, was Vadim Krasikov, a convicted murderer who was sentenced to life in prison by a German court in 2021 for killing a Georgian asylee who had fought against Russians in Chechnya. German judges said the killing had been ordered by Russian federal authorities and called it "state terrorism."...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-russia-prisoner-swap-frees-americans-evan-gershkovich-paul-whelan/
In "other" news: An Iranian attack on Israel is expected in the next few days. They have declared that. They are trying to show outrage for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran! No idea if this will be one of those "OK, we are attacking now, get ready, here it comes" kind of attacks, but if they do hit anything significant, that could be a big issue. The situation is certainly embarrassing to them, but did not really "hurt" Iran physically. If it is launched from Iran again, there will certainly be warning from Western intel assets at least.
Of note is the assassination seemed to be yet another creative Israeli thing. It looks like they shot a missile (I think from the ground?) into the apartment he was staying in (very precisely). In Iran, that is pretty trick (they have done similar things before, even in Iran though). Israel approach has generally been to take out leaders of the organizations it is fighting with. You have to imagine what the security of Israeli leaders is like!! They did loose a PM in the past, but that was from internal Israeli opposition (it will not shock you to know it was surrounding the Palestinian two state solution argument!).
So, the Russia situation might be sliding a bit one way, the Middle East, the other....
Was reported this morning that the assasination in Tehran was from a bomb planted in that apartment 2 months ago and triggered remotely.
MSN.com: Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Submarine (again?) and Air Defense System in Crimea
Ukrainian armed forces have again targeted and sunk the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don, a key asset of the Black Sea Fleet.
stroker said:NOHOME said:Still amazed that Putin's bridge is still operational.
I have a feeling the Ukrainians are hoping to reacquire the island and do not want to pay the expense of having to rebuild the bridge...
The bridge only goes to Russia. Russia is THE problem.
In what universe would Ukraine want to have a bridge to Russia after what the world has learned about russians? I would not just destroy the bridge, but do it in such a way that building a new one would be difficult and probably blowy-upy. What am I missing?
NOHOME said:.... Russia is THE problem.
In what universe would Ukraine want to have a bridge to Russia after what the world has learned about russians? ....
People said the same thing about the Germans about a century ago, give or take. Leadership changes, conditions change, maps are redrawn, etc. While I agree that the Ukrainians have no desire to retain the Kerch bridge for the foreseeable future, to suggest that it will never serve a useful purpose seems a bit short-sighted. With a change in Russian leadership, it could conceivably serve as a pathway of economic and cultural reconciliation at some point, just as the heavily-disputed industrial and power generation capabilities of the Ruhr River valley was a point of division between France and Germany in the 1920s and 30, but also, beginning in 1951, served as a key component of the European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to the European Union and the mechanism by which Germany was quickly rehabilitated in the eyes of the world.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I was thinking the same thing, more or less. It wasn't so long after capitulation that we started eagerly snapping up VWs and meeting the nicest people on Hondas.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Russia can think about what they did and how they are going to change as a species without the bridge. The bridge does not factor into that process in any way. Way too dangerous to have in existence it if russia just calls for another time-out to reorganize and re-arm like they did in 1994.
If the war ends with Crimea in Ukrainian control, Crimea needs to lean into Ukraine like a baby to a mothers Boob in the short term; lack of a bridge to russia will force this. If Crimea ends up in Russian control, the bridge will be used to transfer military equipment until russia is confident that they can pull it off next time. Just an opinion based on past history.
The Ukrainians did what appeared to be another large drone strike on the Morozovsk Russian airfield (south east of Ukraine) where the Russian base the SU-34 that do the glide bombing from. It looks like it was a pretty successful. Seems like they got some planes.
Image at left is one of the what looks to be ammo dumps on the base. Right is what it looks like now:
The Ukrainians have been doing a bit of a publicity tour with the F16's. They have been spotted over Lviv (very western Ukraine) and Odessa (south). They likely have fewer than 10 at this point. I think these are the (formally) Danish planes. Note Ukrainian insignia on the tail.
One question is where they will be based. There is realistically only two possible bases in western Ukraine (they need to keep them as far away from Russia as possible). I suspect they will just put them at one of them, and defend the hell out of it. Being well behind the lines the should probably be able to do a good job at that. The Kinzel hypersonics might be the biggest threat, though apparently somewhat inaccurate. Being that far from the potential launch points though should allow them to place Patriots so they would be directly in the approach line, which should make them much easier to intercept (and have been before). We can probably expect some pretty concentrated efforts by the Russians to get some missiles / drones in there though and I suspect the F16's might take part in some of the shoot downs of the cruise missiles (likely one of their prime roles).
They need a whole fleet of dummys to put closer to Russia, in an out of the way spot to waste Russian ammo.
In reply to TurnerX19 :
Already available off the shelf too!
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Inflatables worked in WW2, but I should think modern systems would be able to detect the lack of mass within the visual target.
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