History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Another minor (hopefully) but interesting point:   The Nuclear plant that is near Kursk, unlike Zaporizhia, is of the same design as Chernobyl.  The good news of course is that the design is so safe, they didn't even bother to build containment structures for the reactors....(!)

Another interesting rumor observation:  One of the suspected reason why the Ukrainians where able to penetrate this part of the boarder so easily is because this is the area where the Russians seemed to be planning an attack from, like the Kharkiv one, which went pretty bad, so they never did it..... but they had already de-mined the boarder...  (as I said, very much a rumor)

Russia's tightening their grip some more on Internet access:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-crackdown-signal-messenger-blocked-2adc9c67fc749727c41375f5b5ffb2a3

NOHOME said:

My thoughts on the side-trip into Kerch is that it was done to make russian citizens aware of the war.

I imagine that russian citizens are aware of the Ukrainian war in  much the same way that I was aware of the Iraq war or the Afghan war; I knew they were happening but did not involve me.  I imagine that had either "foe" landed a force in any town in the USA, I would have felt very involved.

I was thinking along these lines.

Invading russia to me sounded like a propaganda win for Ukraine (and a good boost to morale) and a propaganda loss to russia.  Hard to say things are going swell when towns are being evacuated (and those people need to go "somewhere" which would only further spread discontent).

But also, I got to wondering...  We now have a border crossing into russia that is open and controlled by the Ukrainians where there wasn't a real "strong" russian opposition presence. 

Ukraine has russian volunteer legions.  What are the chances a good-sized group of SF trained "russian" saboteurs have now infected russia? 

I'm kinda crossing my fingers we start seeing fires at factories, electrical substations, etc.  Things that would normally be difficult (or "not effective") to hit via drone/etc, but easy to hit by plain-clothed personnel with the right training (or even just good intel providers for the people launching the things that go "boom")

But also, the memes (as always) are on friggin point

It's looking like they may still be advancing, but Russian units are starting to show up.  As noted, most of the info is coming from Russian sources, which is likely why they are locking down the internet more.  The Russian duma also just did pass the law that makes use of personal devices (cell phones) by military personnel illegal.  I suspect both are an attempt to slow what has been a very leaky, intel wise, military.  It seems highly unlikely this will eliminate the use by the soldiers, at least short term.  Apparently they are rather useful because of the lack of military equipment for communications.

Part of a statement from Putin:

The enemy is seeking to improve its negotiating positions in the future, but we have nothing to talk about with Kiev.

According to conservative estimation of Ukrainian military Telegram channel DeepState, Ukrainian army controls 44 settlements in Kursk region

ISW's assessemnt:

Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the battlefield initiative in one area of the frontline and contest Russia's theater-wide initiative. Russia's possession of the theater-wide initiative since November 2023 has allowed Russia to determine the location, time, scale, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine and forced Ukraine to expend materiel and manpower in reactive defensive operations.[1] The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, however, has forced the Kremlin and Russian military command to react and redeploy forces and means to the sector where Ukrainian forces have launched attacks. Russian forces, however, were notably not conducting active operations in Kursk Oblast. Russia has been leveraging its possession of the theater-wide initiative to pressure Ukraine and attempt to prevent Ukrainian forces from accumulating manpower and materiel for future counteroffensive operations while determining a tempo of fighting that would allow Russian forces to sustain consistent ongoing offensive operations.[2] Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely incorrectly assessed that Ukraine lacked the capability to contest the initiative, and Ukraine's ability to achieve operational surprise and contest the theater-wide initiative is challenging the operational and strategic assumptions underpinning current Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine.

As far as Russian being aware.  One of the nice thing about this being near Kursk is that those people are fleeing to Moscow, you know, where the "important" people are.  So, it's pretty visibile to them, and they may actaully feel a bit threatened:

Russians flee for Moscow amid Ukraine border attack: ‘it has to be stopped’

     Thousands of residents are evacuating, with some asking Putin for help as pro-Kyiv forces press into Kursk region in a major offensive

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3273978/russians-flee-moscow-amid-ukraine-border-attack-it-has-be-stopped?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

This is pure speculation and I could easily be dead wrong, but it seems to me that bad things happen to the Russians when they mass up. Ukraine has better intelligence and smarter weapons. I wonder if, in invading Russia, they are setting a trap for them?

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

They'd certainly like to be setting a trap for them, but what kind? Tactical? Operational? Strategic? They're definitely creating a diversion, and probably taking some pressure off the front lines, as well as making things difficult for Putin domestically, but is there another angle? Pretty hard to say at this point.

I'll be curious to see what happens when (if) they get to more critical infrastructure.  They don't seem to be tearing everything up on the way in, but if they make it to railways and road bridges used by Russia to shuffle supplies around, will they be a bit rougher?  Basically, the kind of stuff that drones don't seem as capable of damaging.  Also, I'm guessing any planned retreat is going to be pretty destructive.

It would be nice if they could circle back behind enemy lines in areas they've been defending, but there's got to be no way they have the troops to pull something like that off.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

 

 

 

 

"Ukrainian troops" are leaving reviews on Russian restraunts

The Russian seem to be stepping up a bit, even doing a bit of counter attacking in the east and attempting to glide bomb into what might be assembly areas within Ukraine.  It appears the Ukrainians are still advancing and consolidating though.  There was even a video of a Ukrainian soldier (uniform etc) in front of as sign of the town L'gov (very top of map below), which is just east of the nuke plant (cooling pond at top right of map).  That video was likely either a very advanced scout or a deception (found a sign from the town?).

Some of the troops defending this area are from the famous (infamous) Akhmat battalion, which are a unit of Chechian special (!) forces, which apparently have a pretty good Tik Tok presence and have been very good at showing of how impressed they are with themselves....   .... they apparently mostly ran away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites

Putin withdraws some troops from southern Ukraine to protect Kursk and Belgorod regions, — Politico

And it looks like Putin is borrowing Belarusian (?) equipment.  The story states Belarusian warehouses could be empty and now equipment is coming from Belarusian combat unit warehouses.

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/bilorus-peredast-rosiyi-tehniku-z-diyuchyh-pidrozdiliv/

Saw extremely GRM-relevant news that the Ukrainians built a UGV with Tesla parts and used it to deliver a bomb made from a Toyota Mirai's hydrogen tank:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/13/how-eco-cars-from-toyota-and-tesla-joined-ukraines-fight-against-russia/

Also Ukraine is now occupying about 1000km^2 of Russia. I heard a discussion on CBC Radio that they'll likely try trading this back to Russia for occupied Ukrainian territory:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-conflict-1.7294085

In reply to GameboyRMH :

I saw the headline blurb about that and immediately noped because the writer called it a "hydrogen bomb" in the headline.

Words mean things, and a hydrogen explosion isn't a "hydrogen bomb" any more than Chernobyl was a "nuclear explosion".  "Hydrogen bomb" strongly implies that there was fusion involved.

GameboyRMH said:

I heard a discussion on CBC Radio that they'll likely try trading this back to Russia...

As a textbook Gen Xer, I read this as a discussion you heard on CB radio. 

That's all I got. And I'm 10-10 'til we do it again.

Is there any possibility that the Ukrainians could be using this "invasion" to mix a whole lot of partisans in with the russian refugees who are fleeing the war?

Tons of different comments and details from some of the better Twitter folks.  At least part of this attack from Ukraine is to take a significant portion of the rail capability Russia is using to supply their lines.  Apparently Kursk is also their main producer of railcars etc.  Seems like a much larger attack than previously discussed at more than 10K troops.  Interested to see if they take enough land to flank the troops in Kherson. 

The Ukrainians have been capturing a lot of Russian conscripts, which I believe are not supposed to be in the front lines.  They are more valuable then a volunteer or payed soldier for exchanges, and that seems to be already paying off:

Russia has initiated negotiations on prisoner exchange for the first time. This was reported by Ukrainian ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets. It is emphasized that the conversation was initiated by the Russian side. Lubinets noted that the fighting in the Kursk region forced Moscow to take the initiative on the issue of prisoner exchange. It had not done so before.

Russia is restocking it's supply of innocent Americans to exchange for murderers and spies:

U.S.-Russian woman sentenced to 12 years in Russian penal colony

Russian-American Ksenia Karelina was sentenced by a Russian court to 12 years in a penal colony on Thursday after pleading guilty to treason earlier this month. She was arrested earlier this year while on a trip to Russia for donating $51 to an American-based humanitarian group helping Ukrainians suffering in the war, according to Russian state media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-american-ksenia-karelina-sentenced-to-12-years-in-russian-prison/ar-AA1oQriB

I am almost wishing the US would make it the death penalty to travel to Russia as a US citizen (I know, there is no federal death penalty).  My god!  STOP GOING TO RUSSIA!!!!! 

Ukraine continues to move (may not be entirely up to date, lots of info is rather delayed).  They appear to be in Korenevo and maybe encircling it from the south.  This a somewhat large town/city in the area, and is likely a prime objective.  The Russians have been observed building defenses along the highway that runs south of L'gov and the nuke plant (my highlight below).  This is obviously the potential final front line area to the north.  It is rather hilly north of that, so going beyond there is very unlikely anyway.

The Ukrainians also continue to swing west and capture more boarder.  That river there is a potential goal / stopping point also.  Capturing more boarder makes logistics and holding the land far easier.  The Ukrainians have also pushed a bit farther east, though that seems to be the area of most resistance at this point.

ISW's take on it:

Ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are generating tangible defensive, logistical, and security impacts within Russia. Commercially available satellite imagery collected by Maxar on August 12 shows a newly dug series of field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches southwest of Lgov along the E38 Lgov-Rylsk-Hlukhiv highway (northwest of Sudzha).[19] Additional satellite imagery published on August 13 and collected between August 6 and 11 shows the recent appearance of field fortifications near the 38K-024 highway just south of Lgov.[20] These new fortifications are about 17 kilometers north of the furthest claimed limit of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, which suggests that Russian forces are concerned about potential continued and rapid Ukrainian mechanized northward advances within Kursk Oblast. Russian forces appear particularly concerned about major highways and are likely trying to preemptively safeguard important ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to inhibit Ukrainian maneuver, particularly along the E38 and 38K routes. Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are also reportedly impacting Russian railway logistics — the Belarusian Railway Workers Community claimed on August 13 that its internal sources are reporting that Russian state-owned railway company Russian Railways informed Belarusian state-owned railway company Belarusian Railways to stop directing trains from all Belarusian Railway stations to stations along the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway starting on August 12 due to a "large-scale operational transfer of troops in the direction of Kursk Oblast" and the movement of freight trains for military logistical purposes.[21] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also announced a state of emergency in Belgorod Oblast on August 14, which will allow Belgorod Oblast authorities the power to restrict movement within emergency areas likely either to secure Russian logistical support for Belgorod Oblast border areas or Russian defensive measures within Kursk Oblast.[22]

More attacks on Russian airbases.  The Russian glide bombs are still likely the prime problem, which that cannot really defend against, for the Ukrainians:

---------

Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of August 13 to 14, damaging several airfields. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), and Ukrainian military on August 14 for conducting drone strikes against unspecified Russian air bases.[30] Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on August 14 that its sources in the SBU stated that the Ukrainian SBU, GUR, Special Operations Forces (SSO), and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes against Russian military air bases in Kursk City, Voronezh City, Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast, and Savasleyka in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and characterized the strike as the largest Ukrainian attack on Russian air bases since the start of the war.[31] The SBU sources also stated that Ukraine targeted these air bases to prevent Russian forces aircraft from using these bases to conduct glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian frontline forces and civilian areas. Geolocated footage published on August 13 demonstrates the sound of explosions resulting from Ukrainian strikes as heard from somewhere near Voronezh City, roughly 3.5 kilometers north of the Baltimor Air Base in Voronezh City.[32] Satellite imagery captured on August 14 of the Borisoglebsk Air Base indicates that Ukrainian strikes damaged several hangars, likely near the location aircraft repair and maintenance building, and may have damaged an aircraft.[33] Geolocated footage published on August 14 shows a drone striking the Savasleyka Air Base and the subsequent explosion, and a Ukrainian source speculated that the strike damaged a Russian MiG-31 supersonic interceptor aircraft, which can carry Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.[34] ISW cannot independently verify the results of the Ukrainian strikes at this time.

Did y'all hear about the russian speaking Ukrainians calling local civilians while pretending to be russian officials who were telling everyone to evacuate their villages?

Apparently the success rate was great enough it started plugging up the roads and russian reinforcements couldn't get through in a timely manner.  It had the "also effect" of those civilians takign photos/videos of bombed out russian equipment and sharing them.

That there had me tickled pink, I tell you what.

aircooled said:

Russia is restocking it's supply of innocent Americans to exchange for murderers and spies:

U.S.-Russian woman sentenced to 12 years in Russian penal colony

Russian-American Ksenia Karelina was sentenced by a Russian court to 12 years in a penal colony on Thursday after pleading guilty to treason earlier this month. She was arrested earlier this year while on a trip to Russia for donating $51 to an American-based humanitarian group helping Ukrainians suffering in the war, according to Russian state media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-american-ksenia-karelina-sentenced-to-12-years-in-russian-prison/ar-AA1oQriB

 

I am almost wishing the US would make it the death penalty to travel to Russia as a US citizen (I know, there is no federal death penalty).  My god!  STOP GOING TO RUSSIA!!!!! 

This is a case where FAFO (berkeley around Find out) when you come up with a harebrained idea maybe you should be on your own.

aircooled said:

Russia is restocking it's supply of innocent Americans to exchange for murderers and spies:

U.S.-Russian woman sentenced to 12 years in Russian penal colony

Russian-American Ksenia Karelina was sentenced by a Russian court to 12 years in a penal colony on Thursday after pleading guilty to treason earlier this month. She was arrested earlier this year while on a trip to Russia for donating $51 to an American-based humanitarian group helping Ukrainians suffering in the war, according to Russian state media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-american-ksenia-karelina-sentenced-to-12-years-in-russian-prison/ar-AA1oQriB

 

I am almost wishing the US would make it the death penalty to travel to Russia as a US citizen (I know, there is no federal death penalty).  My god!  STOP GOING TO RUSSIA!!!!! 

Pretty sure dude by the name of Darwin  explained how this works. To paraphrase: "Dumb don't go far."

Simply put: "If you don't abide by our rules, don't expect us to bail you out". 

Sadly, it's not like they're really "getting what they deserve" here, the issue is that they are volunteering to be hostages which means that the US will buy them back at all costs by giving the Russians more of what they want. THAT is why they suck for going there.