The US was a pretty big supporter of the Kurds up until about 4 years ago. I believe that support originated from the Iraqi war were the Kurds were a serious threat to Sadam (and a rather brutal target of his after the first "war"), and they were a useful ally against ISIS. The Kurds are also generally considered one of the most moderate of the Muslim groups, even to the point of allowing women to fight in their army!
In reply to aircooled :
At the same time, the Turks don't like the US supporting Kurds.
If these quite disparate groups are successful in overthrowing Assad, I would be surprised if they don't turn on each other eventually.
FJ40Jim said:In reply to Stampie :
The ethnic Kurdish people want an autonomous region (country?) called Kurdistan. The problem is Kurdistan would be carved out of modern day Turkey, Syria, Iraq and.... Iran? So those countries call Kurd freedom fighters 'terrorists'. You can do the math from there.
Also I remember a few years ago, the proposed borders for Kurdistan conveniently located it on top of a lot of the oil in the region.
aircooled said:The US was a pretty big supporter of the Kurds up until about 4 years ago.
This is me trying to recall a podcast I listened to like 8 years ago, but my understanding of the US's support of the Iraqi Kurds has been akin to Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.
02Pilot said:It's still early days here. No one expected this level of success, not even HTS. When the advance stops and the dust settles, we'll see what things look like.
Yeah, I dunno. Maybe we should stop being surprised when Russia and it's proxies are shown to be far less powerful than expected.
It's probably tough to do force-projection in the ME when you can't even control your own borders.
Anybody have any ideas on other groups that would want to take advantage of a weakened Russia?
Syrian Army has fled Homs, leaving Damascus cut off from the (former?) Russian naval bases on the Mediterranean.
Unconfirmed reports Assad has fled Damascus. If true, it's probably the beginning of the end; in that part of the world, when the rats jump off the ship, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the ship is going down.
As to the Russians, if (when) they lose Latakia and Tartus, it's going to be interesting to see how much they are able to get out, and how much gets left behind. If/when they get there, expect HTS to post lots of photos of everything they grab. Since Turkey is unlikely to allow warships to transit the straits, Russian vessels will probably have a long trip home to St. Petersburg or Murmansk.
I swear I'm sober but what are the chances Russia tries to keep that naval base as a Mediterranean version of Kaliningrad?
02Pilot said:Unconfirmed reports Assad has fled Damascus. If true, it's probably the beginning of the end; in that part of the world, when the rats jump off the ship, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the ship is going down.
Dang. Guess he called for a ride instead of ammunition.
@stampie I'm sure they'll try to cut a deal with HTS (if they haven't already?) for the port and airstrip.
If HTS tells them to pound sand then...dunno?
Since Russia has been killing HTS for years now, I'm leaning towards HTS saying ' go pound sand '.
Boy, I can't wait to see Bashar al-Assad swinging from a rope.
And acronyms boys, what does HTS stand for?
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
This seems like a decent overview. A couple of the government sites (ex: dni.gov) list them as a "relatively localized" group....which seems outdated!
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo
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EDIT: We may not get the pleasure of seeing Assad swing-unconfirmed reports say that his plane just went down over Homs.
Looks like Syria is essentially done at this point. This is essentially a collapse. The rebels are in Damascus and likely control it by now. Assad may have left, but the Israeli's say he is still there(!) The only part left is the Russian occupied area in the west. I don't know if Russia is the primary army here though. They have been launching air strikes.
This is a big blow for Russia, and a huge blow for Iran. Since Oct 7, Iran's areas of manipulation have massively collapsed. Oct 7 was definitely was region changing event, which I think can be reasonable assessed as completely blowing up in Iran's face.
BTW - It appears as though, even though the US officially declared it was not supporting the Kurds any more a few years ago... that never really happened, and there are reportably over 1000 US troops in Syria currently (mostly training I believe).
As noted, our great NATO ally is supporting the (now supposedly more moderate ISIS spin off!!) while the US is backing the Kurds with the Turkish absolutely hate.
The Israelis are freaking out a bit because that purple areas in the lower left is the Golan heights, which Israel slapped away from Syria when they tried to attacks them in the 1967 Six Days War. As you can imagine Al Queda / ISIS inspired folks, aren't exactly "pro-jew".
One expert is saying (slightly sadly) that the best solution here is that the factions keep fighting. A stable ISIS like state is NOT something the west really wants (well.... except Turkey... you know, our NATO buddy....)
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Ok, HTS is the new al-Nusra, now I remember. Thanks.
Looks like the in fighting has already started:
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clashed with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) east of Aleppo City, northeastern Syria, on December 7. An SNA operations room claimed that its forces clashed with the SDF in Manjib, northeast of Aleppo City.[23] An SNA operations room also claimed that the SNA seized Tal Aswad, south of Majib, from SDF and regime forces.[24] The SDF reported that it engaged the SNA forces Tal Aswad.[25] The SDF also engaged Turkish-backed forces in four separate villages northeast of Aleppo City on December 7.[26]
As their influence quickly fades away..
A prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leader called on Iraqi militias to intervene in Syria to defend Bashar al Assad.[32] Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri claimed on December 7 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias cannot “wait for [the Iraqi federal government] to escalate” against opposition forces.[33] Hundreds of Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters have reportedly deployed already to Syria to fight opposition forces.[34] CTP-ISW has yet to observe any engagements involving Iraqi militias, however. Reversing the advances of the opposition forces would be a major undertaking, moreover, and it is unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias can gather enough strength to do so.
Here is an updated influence map. Very radical change. BTW the numerous groups involved here is rather confusing. I find the "unidentified opposition groups" almost amusing in a People Front of Judea, Judean Peoples Front kind of a way (if you know the reference, which from Life of Brian, which was shot in 1979, and the whole S-show really hasn't changed much at all)
Here is a summary of the SDF (the Kurds) from Wikipedia, which kind of sums up the s-show pretty good. I am super interesting in seeing how the, supposedly semi-isolationist, new US administration will deal with this. I would suspect they subtly publicly ignore it... which is apparently what they did last time.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)[a] is a Kurdish-led[12][104][105] self-proclaimed coalition of socialist[106][107] and ethno-nationalist[108][109] U.S.-backed ethnic militias and rebel groups, and serves as the official military wing of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).[110][111][112] The SDF is allied to and supplied by the United States–led CJTF–OIR international alliance.[104] Founded on 10 October 2015, the SDF claims that its mission is fighting to create a secular, democratic and federalized Syria. The SDF is opposed by Turkey, which claims the group has direct links to the PKK, which it recognizes as a terrorist group.[113]
Formed as a rebel alliance in the Syrian civil war,[114][115] the SDF is composed primarily of Kurdish, Arab, and Assyrian/Syriac, as well as some smaller Armenian, Turkmen and Chechen forces.[116][10] It is militarily led by the People's Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia regarded as a terrorist group by Turkey and Qatar. SDF also includes several ethnic militias, and various factions of the Syrian opposition's Free Syrian Army.[117][118]
Opponents of the SDF include various Islamist, Syrian nationalist, and pro-Turkish forces involved in the civil war. Major enemies include al-Qaeda affiliates, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Syrian National Army (TFSA), the Turkish Armed Forces, and their allies. Up to 2019, the SDF focused primarily on the ISIL,[119] successfully driving them from important strategic areas, such as Al-Hawl, Shaddadi, Tishrin Dam, Manbij, al-Tabqah, Tabqa Dam, Baath Dam, and ISIL's former capital of Raqqa.[120][121][122][123][124][125] In March 2019, the SDF announced the total territorial defeat of ISIL in Syria, with the SDF taking control of the last stronghold in Baghuz.[126]
Since the territorial defeat of ISIL, the SDF has increasingly been involved in combating the TFSA and Turkish presence in northern Syria.[127]
Israel has launched a contingency operation into the demilitarized zone east of the Golan Heights to create a buffer area, and is pummeling remaining Syrian regime targets (ammo dumps, reportedly a chemical weapons facility, etc.) to keep them out of HTS hands. There is a report that IDF fighters turned back Iranian civilian aircraft near the border with Iraq.
High probability that Assad's IL-76 went down. Recent satellite passes show the Russians have beefed up their airlift capacity, likely as they scramble to get everything they can out.
As noted some reports of Assad"s plane being shot down. It also possible he is in Russia now. The Assad regime Prime Minister will handle the transfer of power. So, in the least, because of the collapse (rather than fight to the last man etc) the government structures are likely to stay somewhat in place, making transition much cleaner.
With the collapse of the government, there of course is looting etc.
The new government is claiming they will respect all Syrians... but this is just the one group. It seems rather unlikely the other groups will fall inline (especially the Kurds), but, we will see.
Iraq was a brutal dictatorship of a variety of "groups" (essentially religious groups, but there is an ethnic component of course), and we saw what happened when that was broken up. It sounds horrible to say it but the brutal Sadam regime did keep the country pretty stable, but in Syria's case, not so much. There were some pretty serous (both internal and external) downsides to that situation of course!
To use a slightly inappropriate quote"can we all just get along"?
History of course says:
Absolutely not.
In reply to aircooled :
Your last map makes it look like Syria might break up into about 5 little countries?
Reports of significant GPS jamming in the region where Assad's assumed plane was flying, so now some doubt as to whether it crashed. Also, no reports from the ground of any planes going down in the area.
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
Probably more like 3 or 2. Seems VERY unlikely the Kurds want to be part of Syria. They want to be Kurdistan. The Turkish backed SNA VERY much does not want that to happen (so expect them to keep existing, just by force of Turkey alone), though is likely not looking to form a country. And of course the main HTS group, which will be forming the base government.
Realistically, it will probably be Syria, with (at least) the two other groups in unrecognized territories, that will likely (need) to be generally ignored (state status wise).
I am sure there are likely always to be at least some small groups that just want something extreme (the a-holes) e.g. Hezbollah. It's the middle east, it's what "it" does.
To use another generally inappropriate movie quote: "Forget it Jake. It’s Chinatown"
VolvoHeretic said:Boy, I can't wait to see Bashar al-Assad swinging from a rope.
The bastard got away:
https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-816e538565d1ae47e016b5765b044d31
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Lost at the bottom of the article:
RIA also said Syrian insurgents had guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic posts in Syria.
US pounds ISIS camps in Syria after Assad flees per Politico
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/08/us-troops-stay-syria-shaheen-00193192
The U.S. carried out a major round of airstrikes on Islamic State targets on Sunday, and warned the terror group against trying to regain strength in the country after rebels took over the government.
The operation included “dozens” of airstrikes on over 75 targets involving ISIS operatives and camps using B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets and A-10 close-air support attack aircraft “to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria,” according to a statement from U.S. Central Command.
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