History in the Making: Russian Invasion

aircooled said:

- The North Koreans apparently are having issues dealing with the drones.  As in, they tend to ignore them, which of course gets them blown up.

Per this WSJ article, the NKs are being taught to deal with drones in teams of three, with one acting as a decoy and two attempting to shoot it down. Unsurprisingly, this was documented in the diary of a dead NK.

All this sounds remarkably similar to the mindset of the Chinese "volunteers" sent to bail out the NKs in 1950, at least early on. They, of course, died in their hundreds of thousands.

In reply to 02Pilot :

A mannequin on a track would be a decoy, a person running around to attract a drone is live bait

In reply to GameboyRMH :

I believe the article mentions that the direct translation of the Korean in the diary is "bait".

"So, how do you guys deal with the drones"

   "We use the Seo-jun decoy"

"Can I see this it?"

   "Yes, he's sitting right over there"

Two things that might be of interest here. First, a lecture from the Naval War College:

And this discussion from CSIS:

On Monday the Russian Central Bank was forced to issue statement after being inundated with people asking if their savings accounts would be frozen. The worry seems to be that a savings bubble may be forming as inflation is running at about 9% and the central bank's window rate is at 21%. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-dismisses-retail-deposit-freeze-rumours-2025-01-13/ 

On Tuesday the head of the opposition party proposed a law requiring the approval of the Duma for any freeze of bank accounts to take place:

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1879212788737819102?mx=2

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I'm having trouble understanding the perceived concerns of the russian bank. A savings bubble is bad because fewer people are spending money...but in this case that would be welcome news as it would cool off inflation. Even if they were worried about fewer people spending money, seizing assets wouldn't be the way to fix it, right?

Any economists want to chime in?

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

Not an economist, but I suspect the real issue is that there is a behind-the-scenes power struggle going on here, with the bankers on one side and the defense-industrial folks on the other. The bankers are trying to keep the economy afloat, and the defense people are trying to fight a war, and both are trying to hold on to their fiefdoms. Putin can't afford to piss off either side, and doesn't want the stink of blame on him if the economy goes south, so he's letting them fight it out. If it blows up in his face, he'll throw the losers to the wolves.

I heard something about the government tapping into citizens savings account to fund the government!  But that might just be a misunderstanding of the situation.  It sounds very extreme.

Either way, there are some serious economic issues going on in Russia.  As noted previously, wars are almost as much about economies as they are about tanks and bullets.

And still, the Russians continue to indicate zero interest in any sort of negotiations....

...your mouth says no, but you economy says yes, yes, yes....

In reply to aircooled :

Part of the reluctance to openly embrace negotiations is the perceived rigid opposition in the West to removing economic sanctions. If you want to encourage the Russians to talk, there has to be something on the table. If the only thing on offer is an end to the fighting, they're not desperate enough to be interested yet, and meanwhile they feel like support for Ukraine may be reduced in the near future, so why stop fighting now? If, on the other hand, you dangle the prospect of a measured, graduated, but concrete reduction in the sanctions regime in front of them they'll probably be at least willing to consider talking. But I doubt this will happen in the open, at least not initially.

On a related note, I encourage watching the first video I linked above for historical perspective on the use of economic objectives (via military measures, mostly in the form of actionable threats) to bend Russia to the will of the West.

Sounds like Russia is running out of cash.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-wealth-fund-reserves-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-stagflation-2025-1

And I read somewhere that Ukraine now has more fighters in the field by quite a wide margin than Russia thanks to being more effective at killing and wounding the enemy. (easier I suppose when you mostly sit back behind defensive positions and kill people trying to rush you.)

Whichever way this ends for Russia, their country will see a dark age for several generations. 

I have watched a few videos on this channel.

 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzytW9FifdLdBI0lXMSFjFw

Talk about a depressing place. Most of these people in rural towns have not moved forward an inch since the days of Stalin.

Apologies if some of this is old hat but I only visit this thread occasionally to keep up with war news. (still the best source on the net though!)

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Whichever way this ends for Russia, their country will see a dark age for several generations. 

...

Talk about a depressing place. Most of these people in rural towns have not moved forward an inch since the days of Stalin.

I disagree strongly on the first point. How it ends will directly influence the immediate future and beyond. Look at any of the places that ended up divided after the Second World War: Germany, Korea, etc. Similar starting points, radically different outcomes based on the decisions implemented following the war.

On the second, I agree completely. It's pretty shocking how little development there has been across the vast majority of Russia, but then much of that lack of progress has been the result of deliberate decisions, as well as a lack of public pressure (and opportunity). But it is not irreversible.

In reply to 02Pilot :

I would suggest the difference is that the West stepped up to rebuild the economies and infrastructure of Vietnam, Germany, Japan and South Korea who took a pragmatic view and made friends and money immediately after being destroyed by the same West. (imagine Gaza with their miles of waterfront if Hamas was of pragmatic mind instead of a kill kill kill mindset.)

In Russia the only propping up will come from rapidly losing steam China, so they may not be in a position or have an interest in dumping a lot of money into a neighbor that has a habit of turning nasty.

You think a lot more deeply about this stuff than I do, which is why I come here for updates so feel free to correct me. 

In "other" news, there is an apparent agreement with Israel and Hamas which I will sneak in here. 

From what I hear though, Israel has yet to approve it, and Hamas is already backing out of parts of it!  Historically based, from what I hear about it, it has about zero chance of being followed through.  One thing I am very curious about, and from my perspective, the MOST important point:  who manages / patrols / controls Gaza?  If it's Hamas, and they are not entirely blocked on all sides by Israel (e.g. the Philadelphi corridor between Gaza and Egypt), I see no reason why thing won't just go back to where they were (and likely even if they are blocked).  As a prime example:  World aid sent and built water irrigation pipes to revitalizes the Gaza farms.... Hamas dug them up, made them into rockets, and launched them as Israel.... argh.

Anyway, since 02 is a bit of nerd on negotiations(!).  I would be very curious his general take on this, if he is paying attention to it (not his primary area I know).

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

There are certainly differences, as you point out. The likelihood of Russia rebuilding as a modern industrial-capitalist paradise is admittedly quite low. But focusing inwardly and ruthlessly advancing the nation's development in spite of the costs can be done - Stalin proved it. If you think Russia is backwards now, imagine what it was like before Stalin's 1928 "Great Turn" policy of forced industrialization (necessary in part due to the USSR's international isolation).

I think Putin is more pragmatic than people give him credit for; they just misunderstand his priorities and objectives. As I've said many times before, domestic security is without question his primary concern. If he can maintain this and simultaneously benefit from external markets, he will, but if not, Russia is one of the few countries in the world that could sustain itself at roughly current levels without significant foreign exposure. Putin's major problem in this regard is that those in his inner circle who have profited immensely from international trade may be less willing in the long-term to give up the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed.

In reply to aircooled :

This AP report is the most detailed I've seen. There are huge issues with all of it, mostly because it seems (from my sources) that the incoming US administration strong-armed Israel into signing, so it's a rush job. Further, as usual, on the points where no agreement was ever going to come, they've simply failed to address it and will figure it out later. Hamas is hoping that once it starts, Netanyahu won't have the political clout to restart hostilities, while Israel is probably planning to slow-walk or ignore outright portions of the deal, and will not be shy about blasting any Hamas militant they find straight to Mars.

The fundamental problem for Netanyahu and Israel is their country's strong attachment to recovering all hostages at almost any cost. No nation wants to give up on their people, but as long as this is such a key aspect of Israeli political discourse, there will be great value to any of its opponents to grabbing hostages. I said at the beginning, and I'll say it again now: if Israel wants to resolve this effectively, they should act as if the hostages are dead and unrecoverable. Only when their opponents feel that there is little to gain and much to lose by grabbing hostages will the practice be curtailed.

OK, thanks, that is a good overview.  That is one incomplete agreement!  And zero about who will govern / secure Gaza!  Anyway, hope for best, expect the worst...   I totally agree with you on the hostage thing BTW (they have made taking them a VERY valuable and attractive option)

Hmmm...:

The entire North Korean contingent of roughly 12,000 personnel currently in Kursk Oblast may be killed or wounded in action by mid-April 2025 should North Korean forces continue to suffer from their current high loss rate in the future.

There apparently has been a rather large Ukrainian drone attack (they are getting more and more of them) that the Russian are still having difficulty stopping.  In response, Russia launched another cruise missile attack on energy infrastructure (Ukraine reportably shot down 80%).  The Ukrainian drone attacks are only getting bigger and bigger, while the Russian ones seem to be getting a bit smaller.  (actually data is getting pretty sparse on a lot of this stuff)

Ukraine is getting crunched a bit in the Kursk area and is slowly loosing territory.  The Russian's really want it back, and are will to create piles of bodies for it.  It will be interesting to see if they can hold onto it, or if the Russian run out of bodies (which they never seem to, but they might run out of North Koreans!)

In regards to Russia.  I guess one question would be, do we need to offer them better than they have now, or as good as they had it?  Both are improvements.  Another option is to make it even worse for them and offer to back off on that.  

It looks like the next admin is kind of following your suggestion (hard to say to what extent):

Bloomberg reported that incoming Trump administration officials are considering two main options in regard to sanctions.

If they believe a resolution to the Ukraine war is relatively close, good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned Russian oil producers could help bring about a peace deal, sources told the outlet.

Another option would build on the current sanctions in an attempt to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to end the conflict.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/bloomberg-trump-sanctions/2025/01/16/id/1195299/

An update on the Kursk area:  If the Russian were trying to get back their territory before the change of admins in the US, they have failed.  The Ukrainians have been pushed hard and have lost a lot of the ground they took, but they still have a good hold on Sudzha.

Looks like the Ukrainians pushed back that advance shown above.

Some observations from ISW about the pain Russia is feeling and the effect of the seemingly massive Ukrainian drone attacks:

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Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on January 20 that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 — 150,000 of which were personnel killed in action.[1] Syrskyi stated on December 30, 2024, that Russian forces suffered 427,000 casualties in 2024, and Syrskyi's January 20 number likely reflects additional losses that Russian forces incurred in the final days of 2024.[2] ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command was likely willing to accept record levels of casualties in Fall–Winter 2024, especially from September to November 2024, in order to achieve relatively larger territorial gains from continued infantry-led, attritional assaults.[3]

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an aircraft production plant in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on January 20 as a part of an ongoing series of strikes aimed at degrading Russian military capacity.

Ukrainian strikes against Russian defense industrial base (DIB) targets are reportedly affecting Russian forces' combat capabilities. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on January 20 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia's military facilities, including oil refineries and those that produce ammunition, missile components, and dual-use products, have significantly disrupted Russian forces' combat capabilities and ability to maintain a high intensity of combat operations.[15] Syrskyi noted that Russian forces are using half as many artillery shells per day than they were an unspecified period of time ago. Syrskyi emphasized that Ukrainian forces target Russia's ammunition, missile component, and dual-use production enterprises as well as oil refining facilities that support Russia's war efforts. ISW has observed reports from Ukrainian personnel in the field noting decreases in Russia's artillery usage and of Russia's overall artillery advantage in some areas.[16]

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In regards to the above, there are indications that the Russians are sending not only wounded back into combat, but those that require crutches!  I can easily see how this would make a combat unit noticably less effecient.

"In regards to the above, there are indications that the Russians are sending not only wounded back into combat, but those that require crutches!  I can easily see how this would make a combat unit noticably less effecient."

Must do wonders for morale as well.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

No kidding.  It's as if Russian command is saying "You're not going home except for in a body bag."

nderwater said:

No kidding.  It's as if Russian command is saying "You're not going home except for in a body bag."

It's as if russian command is ... russian command.

If that is not causing soldiers to revolt, I don't know what would.

At least one report that HTS in Syria has cancelled the Russian lease on Tartus. Russian cargo vessel Sparta II is in port and expected to begin loading equipment, but has not done so yet. Meanwhile, the two Kilo-class diesel subs have left the Med via Gibraltar, have lost the ability to sustain their presence (status of the two nuke boats is unknown at this time). There is the possibility of a movement to a port in Libya, but those are all less-developed than Tartus and harder to resupply.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

 but I've just been given a GIGANTIC lesson in perspective and thought I'd share (because honestly, I really didn't have a clue).

So I've just returned from a trip to Kramatorsk and Bilytske.  For perspective, we were single digit miles from the contact line, and were so close to Pokrovsk that we could hear the explosions (near constantly) from the shelling.  here's what that looks like on a map:

 

 

Here's the part I was missing in all of this though:

That little excursion to that area took me over 4-HOURS to drive to from Dnipro (a city that's already 1000km/600mi from the western border).  russia lost nearly as many soldiers this YEAR as they have in all the combat leading up to this year and they are STILL 4-hours straight drive from Dnipro City (and Dnipro is about 7-hours from Kyiv)

This is what it looks like when you compare that 4-hour drive to the entire country:

 

My point?  Ukraine is HUGE!!!!!!  I mean, I know the russians don't have to conquer every last square inch of Ukraine but knowing they've lost nearly half-a-million men and still have 4-hours to go in a straight-shot drive to get to that major urban center was just mind-boggling.

And if we want to look at how much land is still WEST of that urban center, well...  I was in full "iron-@ss and energy drink" mode and I still had to stop 3-hours east of Lviv when I ran out of steam after going full-chat all day (approx 16 hours of driving in all that day).

Honest to goodness, I had no idea the scale of the gains the russians were making when compared to Ukraine as a whole.  It just seems so.... nonexistant!  I mean we see the map move, but its seldom by much and they wasted half-a-million people to do it and they still have so-darn-MUCH further to go still!

Ukraine is HUGE!!!!!! 

You know, that's exactly what i was thinking while we were on the way and that's exactly i was thinking a lot since the invasion started. I'll be honest i still can't find the answer to WHY??? and WHAT??? russians do it for... they want to take over a HUGE territory... ok, assume... how are they gonna hold these territories??? i have a lot of questions in my head, but it's difficult to find some answers... sometimes...

Of course, i realize, i'm thinking from the perspective of an ordinary citizen of my country. 

I have some thoughts as to why this is happening, but i'm watching the process...

Honestly, i don't have any illusions - the number of causalities is enormous, the number of refugees is enormous, the number of towns and villages destroyed is enormous... and that's just a "small" part of Ukraine.

While i'm writing this, word came down that another good guy i knew died in the war...

What's wrong with this World? What's wrong with the people? 

Wars don't make any sense - it's pain, fear, destruction and death - but that's just for ordinary people...

and BIG money and power struggles for those who play geopolitics. 

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

Shoot, I forgot to show you guys the other part.

Here's the damage from the IRBM that hit the children's rehab center (Malva Rehab Center, if you want to google it)

 

We took a collection and raise cash to help them out.  When asked what they needed (we were expecting construction materials, etc), this is what they asked for:

If’n I had to summarize, I’d describe the items we brought as “office supplies and sensory toys for children”. The type of stuff that you need to work targeted muscles to operate (like fine motor skill development sort of stuff). At this point, I'm assuming the gov is helping to rebuild that boiler building.

Actually, volunteers helped them  

I'll post more details in the Ukraine's thread  tomorrow