History in the Making: Russian Invasion

From the ISW

Putin is Still Stealing Ukrainian Children

By Karolina Hird

March 24, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine over three years ago with the intent, among other things, of stealing its children. Putin launched his imperial conquest to first and foremost dominate the Ukrainian people, and he recognized that to deprive Ukraine of its children would be to deprive it of its multigenerational potential. When Russian troops rolled across the border into Ukraine on the night of February 24, 2022, the groundwork for the massive deportation of Ukraine’s children was already in place. Ukrainian human rights activists uncovered Kremlin documents dated February 18, 2022, which laid out plans to remove Ukrainian children from orphanages in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and bring them to Russia under the guise of “humanitarian evacuations.” These documents revealed that Russia planned to target vulnerable Ukrainian children, especially those without parental care before the full-scale invasion had even begun. In the subsequent three years, Russia has embarked on a Kremlin-directed, deeply institutionalized project to abduct Ukrainian children and forcibly turn them into the next generation of Russians.

Ukraine has been able to verify Russia’s deportation of 19,456 children to date, although the true figure is likely to be much higher because Russia frequently targets vulnerable children without anyone to speak for them.[1] Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab placed the number of deported children closer to 35,000 as of March 19, 2025.[2] Putin’s Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova (against whom the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant in March 2023 for her role in abducting children alongside Putin) claimed that Russia has “accepted” 700,000 Ukrainian children between February 2022 and July 2023—a terrifying benchmark for the lengths that Russia is willing to go to rob Ukraine of its own people.[3] The true number of deported children is near-impossible to verify, but the implication remains the same—Russia has stolen tens, potentially hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children with the explicit intent of eradicating their Ukrainian identities and turning them into Russians. International law explicitly forbids the forcible transfer of children from one group to another group for the purpose of destroying, in whole or in part, a national or ethnic group, and considers these violations as constituent acts of genocide.[4]

Russia's crimes against Ukrainian children have been remarkably well-documented, particularly by the perpetrators themselves. The Russian legal system made immediate accommodations for the intended influx of stolen Ukrainian children, signaling the intentionality behind Putin’s deportation project. Putin signed a decree in May 2022 providing for a simplified procedure for the acquisition of Russian citizenship for Ukrainian “children left without parental care and incapacitated persons,” which amounted to a legalization of the process of deporting Ukrainian children and forcibly granting them Russian citizenship.[5]

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There is more, but you will have to go to the ISW site to read it all.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-still-stealing-ukrainian-children

aircooled said:

It also looks like the Russians have come up with a new tactic for their drone attacks.  Since the drones are a bit more controlled now (rather than just fly to the targets and drop).  The gather the drones in a swarm away from the target, then fly them in at a higher altitude to dive on the target.  This both keeps the drones out of reach of smaller arms (e.g. machine guns) for most of their attack and is more overwhelming when they do drop down.

Here's that drone tactic on Dnipro last night.

The front lines are still generally pretty static.  No apparent changes in the cease fire front that I can tell.  I have not seen any specific attacks on refineries in Russia or energy in Ukraine (not that those are published at all) so there might be a bit of an assumed cease fire there.  For the Black Sea, that seems to be not happening at this point.

It's starting to look like the US administration is starting to realize what I am sure most all here have known for a long time:

US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that there is an unspecified "psychological deadline" for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire amid continued Russian efforts to hold the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea hostage to stall efforts toward a general ceasefire and extract additional concessions from the West. Trump responded to a question on March 30 about whether there is a deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire for land warfare and stated that "it's a psychological deadline."[1] Trump added that "if I think [Russia] is tapping [the United States] along, I will not be happy about it."....

Russian officials continue efforts to undermine the proposed US-Ukrainian mineral deal by promoting potential US-Russian rare earth mining projects.

The Kremlin continues efforts to sow division between the United States and Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused "almost the entire European West" of attempting to prolong the war in Ukraine and contributing to the "rehabilitation of Nazism," and continued to falsely portray the Ukrainian government as neo-Nazis during an interview on March 30....

Some interesting tactical reveals lately, more F-16 news.   There is video evidence of an F-16 strike, using a JDAM-ER (glide bomb, likely toss bombed) on a bridge within Russia to support a Ukrainian incursion there.  The F-16 was certainly well clear of the front, and the bomb has a range of around 45 miles.  This would normally be well withing S-300 range, but it looks like the Ukrainian suppression of SAM systems and the increased sophistication of the F-16's jamming capabilities have made that a non-issue (at least here).

The Ukrainians also have access to the Small Diameter Bomb which is similar in range and effectiveness.  The Ukrainians ability and confidence to use these is certainly a big step forward.  I suspect the appearance of the Mirage 2000's have reduced the defensive needs for the F-16 (shooting down cruise missiles etc) and opened them up for strikes.  The are also apparently being used to esscort less sophisticated soviet area jets on strikes (provide warning coverage with their more sophisticated electronics).

Since the Ukrainians continue to get more F-16's (and pilots of course), this will likely become more of an issue for the Russians, though I suspect US style close air support (e.g. flying over the front) is certainly a ways off.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36718p52eyo

Russia has increased conscription rates this year. But they're just going to be tasked with polishing staff cars and peeling potatoes or something. Not to be used in the special military operation.

Interestingly, they have raised the maximum conscription age to 30 so they must be running out of eligible 20 somethings to send into the meat grinder. Hard to believe you can hollow out your countries workforce like that for years and still keep some kind of a GDP.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

... Not to be used in the special military operation.....

Uhmmm... yeah... OK...sure...

I mean, there are pictures and videos of the Russians using soldiers on crutches on the front!

Another bit of slightly old info.  These are shots of the results of the large drone strike the Ukrainians did at Engels Air Force base (large Russian bomber base).  The very large explosions were the result of them hitting the ammo dump and apparently blew up almost 100 cruise missiles:  (before and after).  There is an interestingly large crater in the lower right of the dump.

Also note how ammo dump is away from the airfield, but right next to civilian housing (!)

- Rumors of a Russian offensive in April.  Expected in the Sumy / Kharkiv area (north eastern).

- Any pretenses of a ceasefire appear to be gone now.  

- Ukraine has apparently been sending out "phishing" drones, which are meant to be captured, and either infect or destroy systems they are plugged into or explode when they appear to be deactivated.

ISW is reporting the US is considering economic  sanctions, but they don't think those are powerful enough to motivate Russia:

US officials reportedly continue to acknowledge Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to commit to a general ceasefire in Ukraine. Two US officials familiar with the matter told Reuters on April 1 that senior Trump administration officials have discussed the likelihood that the United States will not be able to secure a long-term peace agreement in Ukraine in the coming months and are preparing new plans to pressure Russia and Ukraine into an agreement.[5] The sources noted that Trump administration officials acknowledged that Putin is actively resisting US efforts to accomplish a peace agreement in Ukraine and used a series of meetings and calls over the weekend of March 29-30 to discuss possible mechanisms to bring Russia to the negotiating table. A senior US official stated that the Trump administration is considering levying additional tariffs and sanctions against Russia. Another source familiar with the discussions similarly told Fox News on April 1 that US President Donald Trump believes that Putin is "slow-rolling" negotiations on a general ceasefire in Ukraine and that the Trump administration is considering increasing sanctions against Russia in order to force Putin to the negotiating table.[6] Trump recently told NBC News that he is considering additional sanctions against Russian oil and stated during a press conference on March 30 that there is an unspecified "psychological deadline" for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire agreement.[7] ISW previously noted that it is not possible for the United States or the wider West to exert maximum pressure against Russia with economic tools alone, as Russia's ongoing and forecasted future economic struggles are closely tied to Russian military losses on the battlefield.[8] The United States can leverage Russian vulnerabilities and achieve a stronger negotiating position by continuing — or increasing — military aid to Ukraine such that Ukrainian forces can continue to inflict significant manpower and materiel losses on Russia.

Per the BBC:

Ukraine captures two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia

Ukrainian forces have captured two Chinese nationals who were fighting for the Russian army in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

The Ukrainian president said intelligence suggested the number of Chinese soldiers in Russia's army is "much higher than two".

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Chinese troops fighting on Ukrainian territory "puts into question China's declared stance for peace" and added that their envoy in Kyiv has been summoned for an explanation.

It marks the first official allegation that China is supplying Russia with manpower for its war in Ukraine. There has been no immediate response to the claims from Moscow or Beijing.

In a statement on social media platform X, Zelensky said the soldiers were captured in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region with identification documents, including bank cards which had "personal data" on them.

Ukraine's forces fought six Chinese soldiers and took two of them prisoner, he said.

The post was accompanied by a video showing one of the alleged Chinese captives in handcuffs, speaking Mandarin Chinese and apparently describing a recent battle.

"We have information suggesting that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier's units than just these two," he said.

"Russia's involvement of China, along with other countries, whether directly or indirectly, in this war in Europe is a clear signal that Putin intends to do anything but end the war," Zelensky added.

The Ukrainian president called for a response "from the United States, Europe, and all those around the world who want peace".

An investigation is under way and the captives are currently in the custody of Ukraine's security service, he added.

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There is more, but you will have to follow the link to read that.

Their perfidious foreign mercenaries vs our noble international volunteers

aircooled said:

ISW is reporting the US is considering economic  sanctions, but they don't think those are powerful enough to motivate Russia

The US won't do a damned thing. The current administration is so weak as to be ineffectual against Putin's Russia. They're so weak Russia was the only country not to have tariffs imposed in the latest debacle that's crashing the US and World economy. Remember how this war was going to be over in 24 hours after the last election? Yeah, about that....

It's all tough talk that won't amount to anything. 

In reply to Xceler8x :

That is a political rant. Please self delete.

Anyway...

- The Ukrainians recently dropped a number of drones into a fiber optics plant in Russia.  The Russian fiber optic drones are big issue for them.  A Ukrainian general recently mentioned that Ukraine now has fiber optic drones with a range of 20km (!) in action on the front lines now.

- The Russian dropped an Iskander missile (with cluster munitions!) into a residential area in Kryvyi Rih (southern area), with a playground... you can guess the rest.  They supposedly targeting a restaurant full of military personnel (they claim "85 NATO officers were killed").  The video feed from the restaurant shows otherwise.  Also... attacking NATO officers!?

It looks like the US is still trying (trying again?) to establish more normalized diplomatic relationship / communication with Russia.  I guess, so the Russians can clearly and quickly communicate how little interest they have in a ceasefire or stopping the war(?)

Russian and US authorities announced a second round of US-Russia bilateral discussions focused on normalizing diplomatic missions but not on discussing the ceasefire agreements offered jointly by the US and Ukraine will be held in Istanbul on April 10....

...the bilateral discussions will occur on April 10 and will solely focus on normalizing US and Russian diplomatic operations and that discussions about Ukraine are not on the agenda.[8] The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its refusal to substantively engage with the United States on proposed ceasefire agreements and future peace negotiations in Ukraine.[9]

Also, on the previous note about what the F-35 is actually for, here is a picture (generated obviously) of two of the drone wing men (they call them CCA's or Collaborative Combat Aircraft) they will be working with:

The Air Force has been working on semi-autonomous CCA drones to pair with fighters for more than a year and a half now, to the point that it has unveiled two full models and designations for them—General Atomics’ YFQ-42 and Anduril Industries YFQ-44.

CCAs will serve as drone wingmen for the Air Force’s F-35 and new F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance manned fighter.

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Xceler8x :

That is a political rant. Please self delete.

This is relevant to the discussion as ineffective sanctions were mentioned. Sanctions will not be increased as this administration is disinterested in pursuing negative consequences for Russia.

The tariff's are a good example. Here's a map of the tariff's before the admin caved. Russia was spared along with NAFTA countries and a few smaller African nations that are too small economically to be considered. 

The list of proposed US tariffs



Since war is "politics by other means", this is an ongoing discussion about politics already. Since sanctions were enacted to curtail war, I don't see discussing sanctions and the lack of will to enforce them as off-topic. 

In reply to Xceler8x :

That is a bit better way to put the point.  Your first post came off as political vitriol which seemed to be based on a common political trope.  (The basic point is also a rather popular political talking point) 

This really is more of 02's area, but from other posts, he appears to be on some sort of spring break walkabout in the eastern Sierras.  I will attempt to address this as he might (he can correct me when he gets back).

As 02 has mentioned a few times, such negotiations can take a very long time (as in not days, but certainly at least months sometimes years are common).  The tariff situation is another argument/discussion and implementing anything like that now could be interpreted as being related to the negotiations (and you KNOW the Russians will do that).  At this point, the US appears to mostly be (STILL) trying to establish reliable/efficient channels of communication and throwing in sanctions at this point could be seen as making even that difficult.  In other words, best not to piss someone off you are trying to negotiate with until you absolutely have to (where that point is reached of course is likely pretty hard to define).

Also, it should be noted, that tariffing Russia at this point is a bit silly, since the US does not currently trade with them.  You could also say, that lack of tariffs on Russia (and North Korea) is one of the only things about that "plan" that makes sense! (I would say few people would say the implementation and structure of the recent tariff situation was masterfully planned and implemented!).  So, I don't think you should read too much into that.

I think the more reasonable statement would be:  At this time, at least while still trying to negotiate with Russia on the war, the administration has no interest in implementing any additional sanctions on Russia.  Once it is clear, at least to them, that Russia is completely unmotivated to stop the fighting without punitive steps (which certainly could at least involve more sanctions), will they implement more?  I believe there has been statements to that affect, but the timing / requirements for that to happen obviously have not be defined.

(edit) As a slight correction, apparently the US still does some trade with Russia (!).   Not sure how that works, but it's not much and not anything the US would want to restrict in anyway obviously (considering it's still happening).  Also, there was some mention of using tariffs as a punishment against anyone who buys Russian oil, but was never implimented (likely for the reason mentioned above).

The Russians have been rather busy in the occupied areas:

Russian occupation administrations are seizing property throughout occupied Ukraine in order to collect personal information on residents of occupied areas, conduct coerced passportization, and facilitate the relocation of Russian citizens to occupied areas of Ukraine

Russia continues to crack down against the Crimean Tatar community in occupied Crimea, often using dubious legal charges to prosecute and detain Crimean Tatars.

Children throughout occupied Ukraine are taking part in the “Zarnitsa 2.0” military-patriotic game—a revived Soviet-era war game aimed at training youth in basic military skills in eventual preparation for service in the Russian military.

The Kremlin is using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to consolidate social control over occupied areas of Ukraine and destroy any semblance of religious freedom. 

Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor issued an order on March 31 that will likely contribute to further crackdowns against pro-Ukrainian sentiment and dissent in occupied Ukraine

Russia continues to weaponize the school system in occupied Ukraine to Russify and militarize Ukrainian children and eradicate Ukrainian identity.

Some updates.  Russia is acting like... Russia again (I guess there is a limited ceasefire still?):

Russia’s continued unsubstantiated accusations of Ukrainian violations of the energy strike ceasefire —despite the lack of any publicly available official ceasefire agreement — demonstrate how Russia will likely act in the event that Russia accepts the ground ceasefire to which Ukraine and the United States have already agreed.

Some perspective on the current talks:

Russia continues to use bilateral talks with the United States to delay negotiations about the war in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin remains uninterested in serious peace negotiations to end the war....  ....The talks in Istanbul suggest that Russia is using diplomatic engagements with the United States to distract from the war and to obfuscate its own disinterest in productive peace negotiations.

A bit of an "uh oh":

The Kremlin continues to use narratives it has historically used against Ukraine to set conditions to justify possible future aggression against Estonia....  ....The Kremlin has long been setting information conditions for hybrid operations against the Baltic states in the name of protecting Russian "compatriots abroad," including against religious-based persecution, and may seek to combine and intensify these rhetorical efforts should Estonia codify these amendments into law.

Also, and interesting result for a general who was critical of the higher ups.  And no, he has not been asked to meeting on the 3rd floor.... he has been given command of what are effectively suicide squadrons!

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for his reinstatement to active military duty....  ....Such an assignment is effectively a death sentence because the Russian military command primarily uses “Storm Z” penal detachments in suicidal frontal assaults. Popov's assignment to command such a unit after having commanded a field army is a punishment and a severe demotion rather than a return to his military career.

Also of interest in the "will there be more sanctions or not" question.  It's really looking like the US admin is starting to "get tired of their s...":

I guess, from an 02 negotiations perspective, this might be a bit of "if you don't want to actually talk, have some of this" kind of thing.  A bit of a stick as opposed to the carrot if you will (we shall see):

Trump has become frustrated that negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks, and said at one point that he was "pissed off" about comments Putin had made on Ukraine.

• If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.
• "We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/russia-witkoff-putin-meeting-ukraine-trump

On sanction news, nothing new at this point, but there was a decision to extend the current ones:

Trump extends Biden-era emergency sanctions on Russia

The administration of President Donald Trump announced the continuation of the state of emergency, which was implemented by Joe Biden's team due to harmful actions by the government in Moscow. This decision extends the sanctions currently targeting the Russian Federation for another year.

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/politics/government/trump-extends-biden-era-emergency-sanctions-on-russia/ar-AA1CPclA

Unfortunately, another F-16 was lost, this time by enemy fire.  Reportably 3 missiles where fired at it. Unclear weather it was an S-400 SAM or a R-37 long range air to air missile (one of the big worries of operating F16's over Ukraine). It's possible the Russians setup some sort of trap.  F-16's are repotably grounded in Ukraine now (possibly to figure out how it was ambushed):

F-16 fighter jet of US shot down in…, hunted down by S-400 air defence system of…, India has…

Reports from BBC and BulgarianMilitary state that the F-16 fighter jet was likely shot down by the Russian air defense system S-400. However, several reports also claim that it is possible that the R-37 air-to-air missile targeted the F-16 as well. Although this has not been officially confirmed, this single attack has created a stir among supporters and opponents in both countries.

https://www.india.com/news/world/f-16-fighter-jet-us-shot-down-hunted-down-by-s-400-air-defence-system-india-has-ukraine-russia-r37-missile-su35-mig31-awacs-egypt-7753336/

The Russians seemed to be striking city centers these days.  Accident(s)?  More cluster munitions.... so...

Russian missiles hit Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations, killing more than 30

SUMY, Ukraine (AP) — Russian missiles struck the heart of the Ukrainian city of Sumy as people gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday, killing at least 34 people, officials said, in the second large-scale attack to claim civilian lives in just over a week.

The two ballistic missiles hit around 10:15 a.m., officials said. Images from the scene showed lines of black body bags on the side of the road, while more bodies were seen wrapped in foil blankets among the debris. Video footage also showed fire crews fighting to extinguish the shells of burned-out cars among the rubble from damaged buildings.

The dead included two children, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine said in a statement. A further 117 people were wounded, including 15 children, it said.

“Only filthy scum can act like this — taking the lives of ordinary people,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. In a statement on social media, he said the first strike hit buildings belonging to a city university, while the second exploded above street level.

The head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andriy Yermak, said the strike also used cluster munitions in an attempt to kill as many people as possible. The Associated Press was unable to verify the claim.

The attack on Sumy followed a deadly April 4 missile strike on Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih that killed some 20 people, including nine children....

Apparently the US administration is calling this missile strike a 'mistake'. Was it called a mistake in the tough-guy "you'll regret that if you don't back the berkeley down right now" way? Nope. It was called a mistake in the you-just-got-gaslit "they said they didn't mean it" trope of making excuses for a manipulative abuser way. This despite all evidence being to the contrary.

Even accounting for 'the art of negotiation', I am at a loss for words...

For anyone who is interested in how governments conduct subversion against their peer competitors, I cannot recommend this book highly enough: A Measure Short of War  It is a 2025 imprint, meaning it covers the ongoing US/West/Russia competition in detail. It is even-handed and fairly comprehensive, while still being accessible to the lay reader.

I know. What the world's most powerful person says publicly has nothing to do with the incredibly deep, insightful and educated things his team is saying in the background while they're doing the actual work..

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5q0mev07lo.amp