Promises made, promises never kept.
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says
Promises made, promises never kept.
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says
In reply to Xceler8x :
Yeah, I thought this was supposed to be done on Jan 21st.
In reply to Xceler8x :
Promises made, promises never kept.
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says
That just sounds to me like we are getting ready to transition from the carrot to the stick. Or at least we want Russia to believe that as a last attempt to get them to the table. Russia is dragging their feet, or just stringing us along. The U.S. is done with that. If Russia does not want peace, we are wasting our time and prolonging the war. Time to move to increased support to Ukraine if Russia isn't serious about peace, which was the promise as I recall.
I think if you have been following this thread, it has been pretty obvious, and I think I even stated that you cannot negotiate with someone who does not want to negotiate.
The Russian have made it very clear, many times, they are have no real interest in any negotiations that are not essentially "give us everything". Obviously, that can be an aggressive starting point, but they really have not shown a lot of willingness to move forward with the process.
Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's non-negotiable demands for extensive territorial concessions from Ukraine while noting that ongoing peace negotiations are unlikely to achieve results quickly.
Two high-ranking members of Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle reiterated Putin's June 2024 non-negotiable demands that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, extensive territorial concessions, and long-term limitations on Ukraine's military after US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff's April 11 meeting with Putin.
Kremlin officials continue to set informational conditions to demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to justify Russia's ambitions of asserting control over independent countries, including NATO member states
The question at this point is: what is the next step? Is it entirely abandoning the the situation (probably not based on article below). Does it mean stepping up the "stick" and trying to encourage Russia? (which seems like the only other option other than hoping the Europeans can provide enough help / motivation)
U.S. will drop Ukraine-Russia peace efforts if no progress within days, Rubio warns
PARIS (AP) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that the U.S. may “move on” from trying to secure a Russia-Ukraine peace deal if there is no progress in the coming days, after months of efforts have failed to bring an end to the fighting....
...“We are now reaching a point where we need to decide whether this is even possible or not,” Rubio told reporters. “Because if it’s not, then I think we’re just going to move on. It’s not our war. We have other priorities to focus on.”..
The article also mentions that the mineral deal is nearing reality, which of course generally requires Ukraine to exist for it to work!
In the meantime, as a likely need to feed the meat grinder they have setup, they are apparently planning on taking students who are not doing well in school and sending them into the military. A sort of eugenics, get rid of the dumb kind of plan in a way...
aircooled said:The article also mentions that the mineral deal is nearing reality, which of course generally requires Ukraine to exist for it to work!
And it contradicts Rubio's "it's not our war" comment, too.
Boost_Crazy said:In reply to Xceler8x :
Promises made, promises never kept.
US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says
That just sounds to me like we are getting ready to transition from the carrot to the stick. Or at least we want Russia to believe that as a last attempt to get them to the table. Russia is dragging their feet, or just stringing us along. The U.S. is done with that. If Russia does not want peace, we are wasting our time and prolonging the war. Time to move to increased support to Ukraine if Russia isn't serious about peace, which was the promise as I recall.
There's also the possibility of beating the crap out of Iran in the hopes they'll beg Russia to quit....
I don't know anything about this, but here's my guess:
clearly a large base of the US president's supporters were against the war. By demonstrating to the base that Russia is being uncooperative, the president can keep them happy while still pursuing the same goal everyone else has always had: to stop Russia.
And if they happened to cooperate way back when, so much the better. But the president is showing that he's bending over backwards to accommodate the Russians, so to the ppl who supported Russia he can say, with his hands up in powerless disgust, "look, he's being kind of an ass here, we can't have people treating American kindness like that!" and then *poof* magically I wonder if the pro-Russia base of supporters changes their tune. Suddenly it's bipartisan and everyone in the US is happy
In reply to stroker :
Yeah, so, in that news. The US has moved another carrier group into the area, and transferred a number of B-2's to Diego Garcia (Island in the Indian ocean, within striking range of Iran) and moved squadrons of F-35s and air defense systems into Syria (and Israel I suspect also).... s' is gettin' real... They are having discussions though (with those giant hammers hovering above their heads of course), which Iran seems to be taking seriously for some reason (!!!)
If the US does get involved, it will highly likely be in a standoff roll to help Israel go in and do the deed. They would have to put US launched munitions into Iran to help though (just not fly over?). I mean, a B-2 ain't going to much good other then launching things! We have plenty of other planes (and satellites) for the intel / jamming aspects.
A rather serious contrast to how they are dealing with Russia. Then again Iran does not have nukes... yet... kind of the entire issue here. (Russia's behavior regarding nukes will likely seem wildly rational compared to what Iran's might be!)
P3PPY said:....By demonstrating to the base that Russia is being uncooperative, the president can keep them happy while still pursuing the same goal everyone else has always had: to stop Russia....
I mean, it's not a bad theory. There is a bit of a "Russia ain't that bad" thing going around. Showing what a-holes most everyone else knows they truly are (lift the curtain if you will), could certain help a lot.
The mineral deal, and the seeming not wanting to throw money at Ukraine anymore, seem to be in a bit of a conflict though. Of course, it could be a bit of "let Europe defend our interest now for a change" kind of thing. Realistically, the mineral deal has no (financial/personnel) commitment by the US at this point (that I am aware of, not sure what it is in the future), so nothing really to loose there at this point (except potential, and the fact that the US REALLY needs another source).
In reply to aircooled :
I think the mineral deal is another sign to Russia that we are eager to get this resolved, we will have and interest in Ukraine, and that resolution does not include giving Russia everything they want. I think we are telling them what is going to happen one way or another, whether they cut their losses now or double down.
Has anyone seen a reliable explanation of why Zelensky is dragging his feet on this peace deal? If he's got no faith in Putin and figures Ukraine will be right back into the same situation 20 years from now, I understand that, but it appears to me the US is about to walk away from this. If that happens, it appears to me that it's the first step to USSR 2.0...
In reply to stroker :
I am not sure he is, unless you are referring to him not wanting to step down for another president (elections are not allowed while at war in Ukraine), give Russia the entirety oblast they don't fully control and basically neuter Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the future etc. Russia does not even want to talk at all unless that is the fundamental basis of the peace.
Ukraine did agree to the limited ceasefire and seemed to want the full ceasefire, but Russia has zero interest in the later and I'd likely on following the former Ukrainian attack on their oil facilities where getting brutal.
In reply to stroker :
What peace deal?
The one where Ukraine allows itself to be genocided by Russia?
Yeah, not sure why they're not jumping at that.
A couple of points:
- The mineral deal is the best thing Ukraine has available to keep the US engaged right now. Once it's signed, the US has a vested interest in maintaining access to those minerals. How it goes about that is unclear and open to several possible policy options, but no matter what, the deal is worthless if Ukraine no longer controls the vital areas. Of course, Russia has suggested that it has lots of rare earths and could supply them to the US under the right circumstances, which explains Ukraine's rush to get this done. I suspect Russia's offer is less than sincere, as China certainly doesn't want it supplying the US with the one commodity that offers China some leverage.
- The B-2s in Diego Garcia have been pounding the hell out of the Houthis for several days. Iran certainly understands that they could easily be next.
- B-1s have been deployed to Japan for the first time in decades, which will certainly not make the Chinese happy, and the Russians won't be exactly thrilled either.
- China has cut imports of US LNG to near zero, and claims it's going to make up the difference with Russian supplies. This opens a possible threat vector for Ukraine to strike another important energy sector, and one that could seriously compromise the Russia-China relationship if done successfully.
- There have been lots of signalling moves by the US and Russia, clearly aimed at building confidence in the relationship and opening the path for dialogue. This is noteworthy in and of itself, but much moreso when one considers that no such moves have been made between the US and China. In fact, the Chinese attempted several back-channel contacts and were rebuffed. This only reinforces my belief that the US administration is looking to perform a reverse Nixon-goes-to-China, opening relations with Russia in an effort to isolate China. It's ambitious to put it mildly, but Russia has more to gain from a decent relationship with the US than it does with China, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
prowlerjc said:Do the Ukes really have that much rare earth minetals?
It's time to call it a night, the quoted post just made me think of this:
In reply to prowlerjc :
According to this chart, some. This chart also seems to contradict the idea that the US is desperately short on them(?) Perhaps we just use a crap load of them (?) I know they are essentially everywhere and maybe it's more just a matter of committing to mine them (with minimum safety / environmental standards I would guess in China and Russia)
Hmmm....
Seems highly unlikely that a landmass the size of Canada would be so far down the list.
In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :
That's how much they are mining/processing it.
Canada has some of the largest known reserves and resources (measured and indicated) of rare earths in the world, estimated at over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide in 2023.
Canada is rich in mineral resources. The vast Canadian Shield, with its masses of igneous and metamorphic rocks, contains numerous large deposits. Metallic minerals are also found in such rock types in the Western Cordillera and the Appalachians.
[US slowly turns to look at Canada with a steely stare]
What's up with that, eh? 
So... as the US starts lining up tanks on its northern boarder for it's "Special Mineral Operation".....
Things are happening:
- Russia (Putin) comes up with a very last minute Easter Truce for a day. Obviously going to be a very difficult thing to do at the last minute! Apparently there were some notable reductions in artillery and attacks, but it certainly wasn't universal. Also certainly potential for doing tactical re-alignments. Also potential to spring it on Ukraine and when they can't coordinate it (even if they did not actually agree to it) they can blame Ukraine for breaking it.
Is this indication of Russia having SOME interest in an actual cease fire? Or just a way to safely move troops around for the next assault? (you probably don't want to know what odds I would put on those)
- 277 Ukrainian POW's were swapped
- The Russians have been using more (Chinese sourced) motorcycles. In a recent assault there were 90(!) charging the lines. Now, a single motorcycle is certainly harder to hit with a drone, but clearly wildly vulnerable to any explosions / shrapnel! Needless to say, the Ukrainians took most all of them out. Perfect target for a well aimed cluster artillery round!
aircooled said:So... as the US starts lining up tanks on its northern boarder for it's "Special Mineral Operation".....
Things are happening:
- Russia (Putin) comes up with a very last minute Easter Truce for a day. Obviously going to be a very difficult thing to do at the last minute! Apparently there were some notable reductions in artillery and attacks, but it certainly wasn't universal. Also certainly potential for doing tactical re-alignments. Also potential to spring it on Ukraine and when they can't coordinate it (even if they did not actually agree to it) they can blame Ukraine for breaking it.
Is this indication of Russia having SOME interest in an actual cease fire? Or just a way to safely move troops around for the next assault? (you probably don't want to know what odds I would put on those)
- 277 Ukrainian POW's were swapped
- The Russians have been using more (Chinese sourced) motorcycles. In a recent assault there were 90(!) charging the lines. Now, a single motorcycle is certainly harder to hit with a drone, but clearly wildly vulnerable to any explosions / shrapnel! Needless to say, the Ukrainians took most all of them out. Perfect target for a well aimed cluster artillery round!
It is amusing from an American perspective but decidedly less so up here. Not the slightest bit funny.
For a better understanding of the rare earths situation, I suggest the following:
Rare Earth Reserves by Country (note this is reserves, not production)
and
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:aircooled said:So... as the US starts lining up tanks on its northern boarder for it's "Special Mineral Operation".....
It is amusing from an American perspective but decidedly less so up here. Not the slightest bit funny.
It's not funny down here, either, and I don't think AC was trying to be funny so much as express how ludicrous a thought it really is.
If I was my neighbor, I'd move.
DarkMonohue said:bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:aircooled said:So... as the US starts lining up tanks on its northern boarder for it's "Special Mineral Operation".....
It is amusing from an American perspective but decidedly less so up here. Not the slightest bit funny.
It's not funny down here, either, and I don't think AC was trying to be funny so much as express how ludicrous a thought it really is.
If I was my neighbor, I'd move.
Damn sure don't think the situation is funny either. I did get that it was a joke, and gallows humor is one way of dealing with this as our own situation. At least our friends to the North get to look on as bystanders.
Yeah no offense intended, really more of an analogy of the absurdity of that thought, which is somewhat similar to the Russian situation (obviously severely simplified). I find analogy to be a good way to give perspective in some cases. Though admittedly, I don't think anyone here really needs any help seeing the absurdity of the situation in Ukraine. (also I do like dark humor, but it can come off wrong obviously)
Back to the actual absurdity:
It's pretty unclear what the next step is for the US admin. They seem to be indicating willingness to simply walk away from the situation if there is not progress on both sides (within a week?). Russia clearly benefits from the US backing off, so you can guess their actions are likely to be (adding to the fact they have shown almost zero interest in anything but Ukraine submitting to most all of their demands). Now, Ukraine could certainly offer to give up more than they have, but guess what that does for Russia? Encourages them more!
It almost seems like the attempt was to solve this situation purely with the carrot, and no stick. (You could probably say that the lack of continuing aid to Ukraine was a stick, but I am not sure that was the motivation)
From a purely practical perspective, the US dropping out obviously creates a potential supply issue. Now, the good thing (and done for this reason) is that NATO weapons are mostly standardized to allow multiple sources, but some things really do need to come from the US (e.g. Patriot missiles). Will the US still at least sell those(?!) Other countries buying and transferring are unlikely to be an issue I suspect, but they are... pricey! (about a million a piece I believe)
And about that cease fire. That is still rather strange. What was Putin's motivation here? The cynics are saying it just a setup to accuse Ukraine of breaking it). ISW does bring up the procedural / logistical absurdity of simply announcing something like that at the last minute (and wanders into something that is likely pretty prominent in 02's teachings):
The snap Russian-proposed Easter truce underscores the necessity that the text of any ceasefire or peace agreement be publicly available, formally agreed to in advance by all parties, and include robust monitoring mechanisms....
...Ukrainian and Russian sources noted that fighting abated but did not fully cease in some directions, including the Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk directions, and that fighting in other directions temporarily ceased around 1800 on April 19 but has since resumed with variable frequency and intensity...
As an analysis, they use a satellite map of visible fires. Clearly not an absolute indication of fighting but a bit of an example why something like WWII is sometimes referred to as the "world on fire". As you can see, it's not only Ukraine who is on fire.
Here is a bit more of a zoomed out view from another source:
The lack of clarity in the next US steps is likely intentional, designed to keep all parties off-balance, but there are signs. The US has spoken directly with European leaders about the path forward, which is new, and certainly something the Russians will not be happy about (for their part, the Russians have been working to open the divide between Washington and European capitals). And even the US walking away completely would not be necessarily welcomed in Moscow, as it would likely encourage Europe to redouble efforts in Ukraine, recognizing that US abandonment was becoming reality. If the US does choose to step away, it does favor Russia in the short-term, but it will probably push much of NATO even harder towards rebuilding their military capabilities, which is not something the Russians will be able to counter in the medium-term.
I expect the most likely next step for the US is to walk away from the table while announcing new sanctions on Russia. How severe these are will give some indication of how much the US wants to push Moscow; weak sanctions mean the US really wants little part in the process, while stronger sanctions suggest an underlying seriousness about restarting talks sooner rather than later. This is not guaranteed, however, as the US has been employing a fairly nuanced mix of carrots and sticks (as opposed to the prior administration's collection of sticks of various sizes), and there may be back-channel stuff going on that requires cushioning, which could muddy the public view of things.
There are payoffs for the US here, notably that Russia's subversion efforts have shifted to concentrate primarily on Europe (I really encourage people to read the book I posted a couple days ago - the sections covering the last ~20 years are excellent, and make the current situation much easier to understand if you haven't been eyeball-deep in this stuff all along).
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