If this doesn’t terrify you, it should

Regarding nations looking to other currencies to trade in - I suspect a lot of this is a result of seeing the effects of what happened to Russia. There are nations that are afraid of what might happen to them if the U.S. along with their allies in NATO, NZ, Australia, and East Asia say "No" together.

No one wants that to happen to them.

But then, what do you have to do to get cut off? And what is your alternative? Who/what do you tie your trade to that you are less afraid of than the U.S.?

It can't be the Euro, Pound, Japanese Yen, or anything else allied with the U.S. The only viable alternative is the Chinese Yuan.

How desperate do you have to be that you would rather be in bed with China than the U.S.? How bad of an actor do you have to be to say, "I need to nail down the Chinese, Indian, and Brazillian markets because it's too likely that I'll be cut out of: the USA, Mexico, Canada, the Euro/NATO-zone, Australia, NZ, North Korea, Taiwan, etc... that I'm willing to start cannibalizing those bridges..."?

You think the U.S. wants to push other nations around and leverage it's power to dictate terms and give you the short end of the stick? Just wait until you start dealing with China...

OPEC has been threatening to unpeg the price of crude oil from the dollar since the 70's. Any day now! Just you wait!

A 401 CJ said:

And this is my concern.  I fully get that the USD constantly fluctuates against other currencies.  But it sure seems like it has moved A LOT in a very short amount of time.

Has it though? Really?

If you narrow your view to moments of volatility that is - by definition - moving a lot in a short about of time. When stepping back and taking a longer term view... these blips are normal parts of the cycle.

It's literally the same reason financial advisors say to just leave your investments in place and let them ride.

It took 14 posts for someone to mention BRICS as being the next scary thing, which is funny when you remember that it's:

1. A term made up by westerners for nations to invest western dollars in... in 2010 and

2. Half of those nations in BRICS are in a cold war with each other, are bordering on civil war currently, just had an attempted populist uprising, run on slavery, or are Russia.

 They've been trying to split from the American dollar for decades, as Beer Baron said. Their problem however, is in a multipolar liberal world commodities are in American dollars and using them makes everything between nations is just too easy. 

A 401 CJ said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

And this is my concern.  I fully get that the USD constantly fluctuates against other currencies.  But it sure seems like it has moved A LOT in a very short amount of time.  This and the fact that China and Saudi are clicking up with a lot of our not necessarily friends, makes it feel like a new paradigm is setting up.  One that might not be too friendly to middle class Americans such as myself.

Of course it's fluctuated a lot in the last few years, we had a pandemic; disease like that is the silver bullet against the American economy, because all you can really do is spend money to keep things open and supported until you get your disease controlled.

The "New Paradigm" is a simple one- A wannabe dictator, Russia, invaded a soverign nation who was believed to be weak and incapable of defending itself. The West said "berkeley THAT" loudly and proudly, and began dumping guns into said small nation- who held off this massive power single-handedly until said guns came online at which point they began making gains. Suddenly Western Democracies stopped arguing constantly and reached a consensus rapidly, smashed Russia with sanctions, and have effectively killed the 2nd biggest military in the world over the next several decades using a combination of economics, population statistics, and a nation's desire for it's own autonomy. They see themselves in Russia and they're scared, because they fear the instant China attempts to invade Taiwan, or if the world decides Saudi Arabia can't ethnically cleanse Yemen anymore, that it'll be it for them; so dictators of a feather are flocking together.

But anyway, back to Mojo Nixon. Why the HELL did Psychobilly not take off?? I'm mad we still have modern country in comparison when he had the likes of him and Jello Biafra.

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

I would be a lot more concerned if I was one of those guys commuting to work in a Sooper Doody F-150. 

I wouldn't since it would be a crazy rare truck and worth a fortune. 

Where are these things rare? Not where I live. I count 10 of them on my block. The Ford Dealer down the street has a lot full of them.

Recent news stories about the USD losing preference are sensationalism and fear mongering.

Here are Central Bank holdings as of Q4 2022 per the IMF:

If we calculate the percentage of total allocated reserves by currency, and sort from largest to smallest we get:

USD~ 58%

Euro~ 20%

Yen ~ 5.5%

GBP ~ 4.9%

"Other Currency" ~ 3.4%

Chinese currency ~ 2.7%

Canadian Dollars ~ 2.4%

Australian Dollars ~ 1.9%

Over 60% of global debt is held in USD:

Recent studies estimate that over 85% of foreign exchange transactions involve the USD

And when SHTF recently in the global banking system, other central banks relied on the US for stabilization

A couple of trades occurring in other currencies is not something I'm going to lose any sleep over. The US is still the defacto World Police, insuring that free trade occurs across the globe. China, the Saudis, etc don't transact anything without US naval protection.

GIRTHQUAKE said:

It took 14 posts for someone to mention BRICS as being the next scary thing, which is funny when you remember that it's:

1. A term made up by westerners for nations to invest western dollars in... in 2010 and

2. Half of those nations in BRICS are in a cold war with each other, are bordering on civil war currently, just had an attempted populist uprising, run on slavery, or are Russia.

 They've been trying to split from the American dollar for decades, as Beer Baron said. Their problem however, is in a multipolar liberal world commodities are in American dollars and using them makes everything between nations is just too easy. 

A 401 CJ said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

And this is my concern.  I fully get that the USD constantly fluctuates against other currencies.  But it sure seems like it has moved A LOT in a very short amount of time.  This and the fact that China and Saudi are clicking up with a lot of our not necessarily friends, makes it feel like a new paradigm is setting up.  One that might not be too friendly to middle class Americans such as myself.

Of course it's fluctuated a lot in the last few years, we had a pandemic; disease like that is the silver bullet against the American economy, because all you can really do is spend money to keep things open and supported until you get your disease controlled.

The "New Paradigm" is a simple one- A wannabe dictator, Russia, invaded a soverign nation who was believed to be weak and incapable of defending itself. The West said "berkeley THAT" loudly and proudly, and began dumping guns into said small nation- who held off this massive power single-handedly until said guns came online at which point they began making gains. Suddenly Western Democracies stopped arguing constantly and reached a consensus rapidly, smashed Russia with sanctions, and have effectively killed the 2nd biggest military in the world over the next several decades using a combination of economics, population statistics, and a nation's desire for it's own autonomy. They see themselves in Russia and they're scared, because they fear the instant China attempts to invade Taiwan, or if the world decides Saudi Arabia can't ethnically cleanse Yemen anymore, that it'll be it for them; so dictators of a feather are flocking together.

But anyway, back to Mojo Nixon. Why the HELL did Psychobilly not take off?? I'm mad we still have modern country in comparison when he had the likes of him and Jello Biafra.

Summary:

A) When the news says you should be afraid, don't be (and maybe do some research), they are almost never right.

B) Mojo Nixon is bitchen!

Addendum:  I wanted to add that as a person who has been around more than some, and less than others.  The use of fear in the media / opinion / politics is VERY common and very old.  When you see / read / hear it, you should immediately be suspicious, because, believe me, it's been used a LOT and is almost always very wrong.  (There is usually some truth to these thing, just wildly overblown.)

The absurdity of this of course, when there actually is something to fear, how will you know to believe "them"?

And again, for emphasis:  The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.   Also of note, the popular version of this goes back to 1932, and can be traces way farther back then that:

https://interestingliterature.com/2020/04/nothing-fear-except-fear-itself-quotation-origin/

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

WHATS GOING ON IN THAT BERMUDA TRIANGLE?

elvis needs boats

elvis needs boats

elvis elvis elvis elvis elvis needs boats

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

I would be a lot more concerned if I was one of those guys commuting to work in a Sooper Doody F-150. 

I wouldn't since it would be a crazy rare truck and worth a fortune. 

Where are these things rare? Not where I live. I count 10 of them on my block. The Ford Dealer down the street has a lot full of them.

A Super Duty F-150 is rare everywhere as Ford never made one :). SD starts at F-250

In reply to ShawnG :

That song and the titular theme sold Redneck Rampage, which is a feat considering that game is trash.

When you speak of moving away from the USD as the world's currency, you need to factor in a little known piece of international banking infrastructure known as the "Bank for International Settlements". 

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international financial institution[2] owned by central banks that "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks".[3] The BIS carries out its work through its meetings, programmes and through the Basel Process, hosting international groups pursuing global financial stability and facilitating their interaction. It also provides banking services, but only to central banks and other international organizations. It is based in Basel, Switzerland, with representative offices in Hong Kong and Mexico City.

The BIS is what makes the USD work as a central currency; the actual machinery that converts transactions from one currency to another. Huge brilliant scam, not without it's own demons but it is what it is and it makes the world go round.

You would have to somehow replicate the institution and co-opt the members to your new organization that will not do anything for them that they are not getting from the BIS. 

Beer Baron said:

Regarding nations looking to other currencies to trade in - I suspect a lot of this is a result of seeing the effects of what happened to Russia. There are nations that are afraid of what might happen to them if the U.S. along with their allies in NATO, NZ, Australia, and East Asia say "No" together.

No one wants that to happen to them.

But then, what do you have to do to get cut off? And what is your alternative? Who/what do you tie your trade to that you are less afraid of than the U.S.?

It can't be the Euro, Pound, Japanese Yen, or anything else allied with the U.S. The only viable alternative is the Chinese Yuan.

How desperate do you have to be that you would rather be in bed with China than the U.S.? How bad of an actor do you have to be to say, "I need to nail down the Chinese, Indian, and Brazillian markets because it's too likely that I'll be cut out of: the USA, Mexico, Canada, the Euro/NATO-zone, Australia, NZ, North Korea, Taiwan, etc... that I'm willing to start cannibalizing those bridges..."?

You think the U.S. wants to push other nations around and leverage it's power to dictate terms and give you the short end of the stick? Just wait until you start dealing with China...

OPEC has been threatening to unpeg the price of crude oil from the dollar since the 70's. Any day now! Just you wait!

While I get your point overall, you need to be careful lumping Mexico in with the US-sphere.  Under Obrador it's a tenuous relationship at best.  It's also a GIANT economic engine.  I'm really afraid our incompetent political class are going to push them into the China camp.

NOHOME said:

When you speak of moving away from the USD as the world's currency, you need to factor in a little known piece of international banking infrastructure known as the "Bank for International Settlements". 

 

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international financial institution[2] owned by central banks that "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks".[3] The BIS carries out its work through its meetings, programmes and through the Basel Process, hosting international groups pursuing global financial stability and facilitating their interaction. It also provides banking services, but only to central banks and other international organizations. It is based in Basel, Switzerland, with representative offices in Hong Kong and Mexico City.

The BIS is what makes the USD work as a central currency; the actual machinery that converts transactions from one currency to another. Huge brilliant scam, not without it's own demons but it is what it is and it makes the world go round.

 

You would have to somehow replicate the institution and co-opt the members to your new organization that will not do anything for them that they are not getting from the BIS. 

Good point and that's a level that often is not heard about.  However, 2 out of the 3 locations for the BIS are on potentially hostile ground.  If push were to come to shove, one could conceivably jail those officials until BIS began operating with the wan as the central currency

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

I would be a lot more concerned if I was one of those guys commuting to work in a Sooper Doody F-150. 

I wouldn't since it would be a crazy rare truck and worth a fortune. 

Where are these things rare? Not where I live. I count 10 of them on my block. The Ford Dealer down the street has a lot full of them.

A Super Duty F-150 is rare everywhere as Ford never made one :). SD starts at F-250

They all look the same to me. Even the ones with the Ram logos on the back.

A 401 CJ said:

While I get your point overall, you need to be careful lumping Mexico in with the US-sphere.  

They're literally our second biggest trading partner. We can't STOP talking about Mexican domestic problems. They are TOTALLY in our sphere.

I am reminded of my college professor who said that "Democracy is the worst form of governance in the world.....except for all the other forms." I think that most of the world would like an alternative to US hegemony, but a better option hasn't come forth yet. So we should be fine until such time as a new, better option comes forth and/or the USA option degrades to a point where `the Yuan or Euro becomes sufficiently attractive to be worth the upheaval of changing over. 

Kreb's American economic history take: With the exception of temporary fits and starts, the United States was in growth mode from its inception into the 1960s. The 1980s brought the realization that there was so much accumulated wealth and power present that we no longer had to grow via traditional means. That accumulated wealth became less a byproduct of our growth, but  something that could be mined and exploited. Companies could be bought, disassembled  and rearranged for profit. Part and parcel to this was deregulation in the banking industry and the accompanying change in the way that the Fed did business. To quote an anonymous Bush II staffer: "Reagan taught us that deficits don't matter". 

This put us on a trajectory that I think is behind much of the political unrest in our country. Those who disagreed with ones political stances were dumb and misled, but essentially well-meaning as long as we had the luxury of confidence in the American entity. Once it looked like we were on a downward spiral that could end up with America's fall from economic grace, the stakes became higher and those persons appeared more dangerous as we search for scapegoats.

I do not know how the the deficit won't ultimately bite us in the ass. Sucks that it will be our children's problem  more than ours.

Blah, blah, blah. You should see  me when I've had a couple of drinks!

And don't get me started on biotech.

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Steve_Jones said:

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

67LS1 said:

ShawnG nailed my concern. Saudi Arabia is now taking the yuan for oil trades. All of the countries that China is propping up will be falling in line with Chinas demands soon. 
Unfortunately, the days of the dollar being the favored world currency are numbered.
In years, not decades.

I would be a lot more concerned if I was one of those guys commuting to work in a Sooper Doody F-150. 

I wouldn't since it would be a crazy rare truck and worth a fortune. 

Where are these things rare? Not where I live. I count 10 of them on my block. The Ford Dealer down the street has a lot full of them.

A Super Duty F-150 is rare everywhere as Ford never made one :). SD starts at F-250

They all look the same to me. Even the ones with the Ram logos on the back.

On the other hand, I don't think Ford ever made a Sooper Doody anything. That's something my Alaskan Malamute makes in the backyard. 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

I am reminded of my college professor who said that "Democracy is the worst form of governance in the world.....except for all the other forms." I think that most of the world would like an alternative to US hegemony, but a better option hasn't come forth yet. So we should be fine until such time as a new, better option comes forth and/or the USA option degrades to a point where `the Yuan or Euro becomes sufficiently attractive to be worth the upheaval of changing over. 

Kreb's American economic history take: With the exception of temporary fits and starts, the United States was in growth mode from its inception into the 1960s. The 1980s brought the realization that there was so much accumulated wealth and power present that we no longer had to grow via traditional means. That accumulated wealth became less a byproduct of our growth, but  something that could be mined and exploited. Companies could be bought, disassembled  and rearranged for profit. Part and parcel to this was deregulation in the banking industry and the accompanying change in the way that the Fed did business. To quote an anonymous Bush II staffer: "Reagan taught us that deficits don't matter". 

This put us on a trajectory that I think is behind much of the political unrest in our country. Those who disagreed with ones political stances were dumb and misled, but essentially well-meaning as long as we had the luxury of confidence in the American entity. Once it looked like we were on a downward spiral that could end up with America's fall from economic grace, the stakes became higher and those persons appeared more dangerous as we search for scapegoats.

I do not know how the the deficit won't ultimately bite us in the ass. Sucks that it will be our children's problem  more than ours.

Blah, blah, blah. You should see  me when I've had a couple of drinks!

And don't get me started on biotech.

I like the Krebs history of the US economy.  That was extremely well put.  Carry on with the drinks, they don't seem to impede your thought process.

GIRTHQUAKE said:

A 401 CJ said:

While I get your point overall, you need to be careful lumping Mexico in with the US-sphere.  

They're literally our second biggest trading partner. We can't STOP talking about Mexican domestic problems. They are TOTALLY in our sphere.

More importantly, the U.S. is Mexico's largest trading partner. The U.S. is 78% of Mexico's international trade. Trade with the U.S. is nearly 1/3 of Mexico's total GDP.

China is in third place with <2% of Mexico's trade.

And much of the trade China is doing with Mexico is investing in manufacturing so Chinese companies can more easily get goods to U.S. markets.

China's central bank officially pegs the yuan exchange rate to the dollar within a narrow range.

That's not a viable way to set your currency up as a real alternative.

In reply to MadScientistMatt :

Neither is answering any critique of oddities in your economy and currency valuation with threats, but you know, wolf warrior diplomacy, ect.

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

ShawnG said:

In reply to 67LS1 :

America hasn't seen the level of interference from China that Canada has.

Beware.

Of what?  Free healthcare and friendly, happy citizens who live longer and have a lower infant mortality rate?  :)

Our Healthcare is currently ranked 10th out of 10 countries with socialized Healthcare.

You have a right to be on a waiting list for years.

B.C. courts ruled that it is illegal for people to go to private clinics and pay out of pocket for health care but government employees and prisoners can go to private clinics.

As for Chinese interference. CSIS has advised the government multiple times about them tampering with our elections, sending money to our politicians and threatening Chinese citizens in our country.

We're bringing in tens of thousands of new people to the country but we're not building enough affordable housing to meet the demand, not enough hospitals or schools, etc.

It's disgraceful. 

ShawnG said:

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) said:

ShawnG said:

In reply to 67LS1 :

America hasn't seen the level of interference from China that Canada has.

Beware.

Of what?  Free healthcare and friendly, happy citizens who live longer and have a lower infant mortality rate?  :)

Our Healthcare is currently ranked 10th out of 10 countries with socialized Healthcare.

You have a right to be on a waiting list for years.

B.C. courts ruled that it is illegal for people to go to private clinics and pay out of pocket for health care but government employees and prisoners can go to private clinics.

As for Chinese interference. CSIS has advised the government multiple times about them tampering with our elections, sending money to our politicians and threatening Chinese citizens in our country.

We're bringing in tens of thousands of new people to the country but we're not building enough affordable housing to meet the demand, not enough hospitals or schools, etc.

It's disgraceful. 

 

Are the immigrants all coming from China? If so you might want to ask the Tibetans what happens next.