Living in the end times of the ICE

There have been so many amazing cars in the last 40 years. While we all feel the "I wish I hadn't sold (fill in the blank) my two Alfa GTVs, Porsche 914 (well...), etc., its taken on a different feel now that cars are excessively complicated and expensive and stuffed with junk that I don't want or need. Those old simple, light, fun cars are not going to be made ever again, at least for working people. 

It feels weird to be here at the end of an era and to know that it is the end. Sorry to be a buzzkill.

Ice isn't going away for a long, long, time.

I'll miss the noise and shifting but I'll enjoy the instant-on massive torque and individual wheel-motors. Drove a Mercedes EQE through a parking lot a while ago and despite weighing as much as a full-size pickup the powertrain felt extremely peppy and being able to flick between forward and reverse instantly with no fear of gear grinding was fun. Look at the Caterham Project V or the Lotus Theory 1, or even an MG Cyberster or Mini Cooper SE and receive hope for the future.

Appleseed said:

Ice isn't going away for a long, long, time.

But, but, "THEY" said it is! It HAS to be true (ignore the little guy behind the curtain...)

Appleseed said:

Ice isn't going away for a long, long, time.

But ones that are not excessively complicated and expensive and stuffed with junk (per the OP's post) have gone away.  There will never be a car as simple as say a VW Beetle ever again.

There are still cars as simple as the VW Beetle. They are called VW Beetle and they are still legal to drive in all 50 states. See also Model T. No one is taking these away.

Ice isn't going away soon, if ever. If people can pack away their biases and grievances they might see that we live in a golden age. There used to be two options to get around: human (or animal) power, or Ice. Now we have those, but we also have hybrid and electric. And each of the four options has its own good points and bad points. HOW IS THAT NOT AWESOME? 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Ice isn't going away soon, if ever. If people can pack away their biases and grievances they might see that we live in a golden age. There used to be two options to get around human (or animal) power, or Ice. Now we have those, but we also have hybrid and electric. And each of the four options has its own good points and bad points. HOW IS THAT NOT AWESOME? 

No, no, you don't understand.. The golden age was always 20 years ago when I was younger lad!

maschinenbau said:

There are still cars as simple as the VW Beetle. They are called VW Beetle and they are still legal to drive in all 50 states. See also Model T. No one is taking these away.

Yes. But people like us/OP are snapping them up so values are climbing. It will be increasingly difficult to enjoy a small light car for little money. See NA Miata values. 
It's not out of hand yet and I hope it never is as bad as I'm afraid it could be. That said I am worried if I sell my Boxster I won't be able to grab another one for a long time. 

performance isn't going anywhere.  things are just going to get faster, and easier to drive fast.  electric cars will be superior in that regard once the energy storage solutions are really worked out.  that ball seems to be rolling downhill very fast, too...just look at how far consumer grade electric cars have come in just the last 8-10 years.

but light and simple?  yeah, those days are over...and consumers demand it.  very, very few buyers want a car with less speakers, less airbags, less power everything.  more and more cars are leased - simple stuff is a moot point, because maintenance is the dealer's problem.

will those light and simple cars still exist?  sure, you just either need to be wealthy to buy a niche brand (lotus, caterham, porsche, etc), or be a mechanic who can fix up a finite, and dwindling supply of old cars before they too, are either priced out of reach by collectors or damaged/decayed beyond saving.  

my suggestion is learn to weld, put a lift in your garage, and fill your backyard with about 3 chassis' worth of your favorite light and simple car.  now you're good for life.

Appleseed said:

Ice isn't going away for a long, long, time.

100%.  Since this seems to be repeat week for me, I'll remind the readers that the upcoming EV mandate isn't just BEVs, but also every single version of hybrid out there- from mild hybrid with a 48V starter/alternator to assist with drive aways to the full plug in hybrids that will go X miles before the gas engine starts.  IMHO, the one hybrid we will see is one similar to a train, where a ICE powers a generator and isn't hooked to the wheels at all.  Which allows the engine to be tuned for some very specific outputs for even better efficiency.

At the current rate of battery development, it's going to be a really long time until I'll be able to tow like I do right now. (yes, I know there are EV trucks that can tow, that's not what we have nor want)

Interesting how the VW bug is a stallworth of simplicity- when it was uniquely simplistic when it was made.  A lot were made, but it wasn't the top selling car- so not that many people wanted super simple cars.  

And the current Miata isn't really that far from the original Miata.  All that's significantly changed that you could not get in the original was VCT, ETC, and DI for the engine, and the infotianment system.  And the complexity of pop up headlights are long gone.  In return, you get more power, more efficiency, better handling, more comfort, and a lot less impact on the environment.  Some cars haven't changed that much.

The average age of a car on the road in California is like 17 years old.  Even if all they sold was electric it will take decades to get everyone into an electric. Most of the electrics made today will not make it to 20 years with the battery tech we have and will not be cost effective to replace. 

I am still using a 1930's Harley weekly to commute one day a week. Even if biogas was 8-10$ a gallon I will still be riding and using my old stuff. 

wearymicrobe said:

The average age of a car on the road in California is like 17 years old.  Even if all they sold was electric it will take decades to get everyone into an electric. Most of the electrics made today will not make it to 20 years with the battery tech we have and will not be cost effective to replace.

On the contrary, by the time today's EV packs wear out the replacements available will not only be cheaper but better, as in higher capacity and smaller and lighter at the same time. There will probably be car dealerships specializing in retrofitting newer packs into older EVs with dead packs.

GameboyRMH said:

wearymicrobe said:

The average age of a car on the road in California is like 17 years old.  Even if all they sold was electric it will take decades to get everyone into an electric. Most of the electrics made today will not make it to 20 years with the battery tech we have and will not be cost effective to replace.

On the contrary, by the time today's EV packs wear out the replacements available will not only be cheaper but better, as in higher capacity and smaller and lighter at the same time. There will probably be car dealerships specializing in retrofitting newer packs into older EVs with dead packs.

That assumes that the replacement battery would use modern technology (many layers of it). So far, we have not seen that at all.  I would not hang my hat on that thought.  As far as I can see, people will be lucky if a 20 year old car even had a replacement battery available, since OEM's will have long stopped making them.  And that latter part follows the nominal tech industry- can you even get a replacement battery for a 2004 laptop?  

I for one, am excited about simple electric performance cars that require very little maintenance. 

I'd love to see more work going into making electric vehicles feel more analog, whether that's motors that route power through sequential transmissions or just kinda jerk and jolt as if they were something interrupting the power. 

I imagine in 20 years we'll have gloried golf-cart kits with the performance of a Rally2 car. 

GameboyRMH said:

wearymicrobe said:

The average age of a car on the road in California is like 17 years old.  Even if all they sold was electric it will take decades to get everyone into an electric. Most of the electrics made today will not make it to 20 years with the battery tech we have and will not be cost effective to replace.

On the contrary, by the time today's EV packs wear out the replacements available will not only be cheaper but better, as in higher capacity and smaller and lighter at the same time. There will probably be car dealerships specializing in retrofitting newer packs into older EVs with dead packs.

Mechanical engineer hat on here. Not a chance in hell. If you see the jigs and equipment required to make these packs nobody is doing it for anything except for maybe Tesla Model A's and the other super high sellers. Plus as the cell manufacturing gets better a good number of plants will be retooled for the new chemistry. Maybe for something like the leaf as well where it is easy to remove. 

Add in the liability costs and install...

While performnce levels maybe very high, so is the cost. Up until the 90s it just took a few box checks to get a perforamace version or at lest well  improved version of a base car. Not so much any more. You now must buy a very expensive performance car to get something that isnt a boring cuv/suv. 

maschinenbau said:

There are still cars as simple as the VW Beetle. They are called VW Beetle and they are still legal to drive in all 50 states. See also Model T. No one is taking these away.

Okay, I should have said 'new' cars.  I figured that was obvious.

wearymicrobe said:

GameboyRMH said:

wearymicrobe said:

The average age of a car on the road in California is like 17 years old.  Even if all they sold was electric it will take decades to get everyone into an electric. Most of the electrics made today will not make it to 20 years with the battery tech we have and will not be cost effective to replace.

On the contrary, by the time today's EV packs wear out the replacements available will not only be cheaper but better, as in higher capacity and smaller and lighter at the same time. There will probably be car dealerships specializing in retrofitting newer packs into older EVs with dead packs.

Mechanical engineer hat on here. Not a chance in hell. If you see the jigs and equipment required to make these packs nobody is doing it for anything except for maybe Tesla Model A's and the other super high sellers. Plus as the cell manufacturing gets better a good number of plants will be retooled for the new chemistry. Maybe for something like the leaf as well where it is easy to remove. 

Add in the liability costs and install...

I expect the new packs will use a new chemistry and will involve a new BMS, and that safer new battery chemistries will also alleviate the liability issues.

Another thing I'll repeat- for all of the battery development for BEV's, the same benefits apply to hybrids.  And it's going to be quite a while until the battery is cheaper than and ICE.  Until then, hybrids make sense.

But lighter, cheaper, faster charging- all great things for hybrids.