Tesla is in big trouble

Let's start here and then move to how this is related to Henry Ford.

Tesla’s Remarkably Bad Quarter Is Even Worse Than It Looks

The high points are:

1. Profits are off 71% from the same time last year
2. Elon has tanked Tesla's customer base sentiments towards the company
3. Other brands are more innovative and innovating faster than Tesla at this time
4. New model sales of the Cybertruck and Y are not going well as indicated by lots of stock on Tesla lots

Now for the Henry Ford tie-in. Henry Ford focused Ford on the Model T long past when it was innovative and when sales were robust. He actively fought innovation by single-handedly halting Model A development and at one point physically attacking the Model T replacement proof-of-concept. Because of this Ford was late to innovate and give the customer what they wanted. This ceded the sales lead to GM who has held it until this day. It would take decades to rebuild what was lost. Here's the article detailing this.  

How Henry Ford Almost Wrecked His Company

As Mark Twain said and Dan Carlin repeats "History doesn't repeat itself but often rhymes."

I do find it interesting how these two automotive innovators seem to be following the same path. 

Let's not forget the plummeting resale value of used Teslas:

And it’s not just internet searches. CarGurus, a car-buying site, found that used Tesla prices are falling at more than double the rate of the average used car price. The Cybertruck, the controversial steel-sided pickup, fared the worst of any Tesla vehicle, with a resale value 58% less than its original price, according to CarGurus.

There's no way this won't get political, but I think Musk's biggest issue hasn't been about lack of innovation.  The reality is that *as a general guideline*, EV buyers skew progressive, and his actions inside the government over the past few months have absolutely, positively soured him (and his brand as a result) from a MASSIVE segment of the buyer market.  

Everything was going pretty well at Tesla until he started getting political.  It hit like a lightswitch.  The real question is whether he can rebound from it now that he's stepped out of the spotlight, so to speak. 

Tesla's problem is that the face of the company is a polarizing figure. 

At the moment, the people most likely to buy his vehicles despise him for reasons. 

This is why your business should be loud and shouty, and your politics should be quiet and kept in the back room with all the rest of your bad habits. 

Speaking as me and not a mod, I think there are some good discussion points available here, please dont make us lock the thread.

The constant complaints about build quality, plus the lack of innovation, is enough for me to not care about their products. 

Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:

Let's not forget the plummeting resale value of used Teslas:

And it’s not just internet searches. CarGurus, a car-buying site, found that used Tesla prices are falling at more than double the rate of the average used car price. The Cybertruck, the controversial steel-sided pickup, fared the worst of any Tesla vehicle, with a resale value 58% less than its original price, according to CarGurus.

 

Not cheap enough. I'm still waiting for my $10,000 Cybertruck.

I actually saw this compared much more similarly to what happened to Coors in the late 60's and 70's. Massive boycotts from a very broad demographic as a result of a leader getting involved in politics in a very unpopular way.

With both cases, one of the big problems is that boycotting is so easy. It's a product that people can easily choose to buy or not, and it's really easy to switch to an alternative.

As for Tesla not innovating... I'd argue the problem is that they seem to me that they like to cram in unnecessary gee-whiz features, but that their competition has better (at least perceived) overall quality, reliability, and fit and finish. I was never a Tesla fan, but I would have accused them of rushing unproven technology or trying to answer questions no one asked, rather than them not innovating.

Elon has never been the innovator at Tesla. He's just the guy in power who thought the cybertruck was a great idea/concept. He's a bumbling buffoon with too much money that never listens to people who tell him no.

Its easy to point at politics, but I wonder how much of this is just plain increased competition and reduced demand? The people that are gungho about EVs already have them. The people that are fine with EVs but don't really care have a lot of other options. My boss falls into the latter camp, just traded his Tesla in for a BMW EV. Way better interior, not quite as fast, but that's not all that important for most people.

Tesla was seen as the only "real" option for a lot of EV enthusiasts, but they don't hold that position in the market anymore, of course sales are down...

z31maniac said:

The constant complaints about build quality, plus the lack of innovation, is enough for me to not care about their products. 

For me, I knew they were over except for the kicking when they started just flat out not doing industry standard tests (braking test, I think was what they killed first?)

There are those who disagree.

1988RedT2 said:

There are those who disagree.

 

spedracer said:

Its easy to point at politics, but I wonder how much of this is just plain increased competition and reduced demand? The people that are gungho about EVs already have them. The people that are fine with EVs but don't really care have a lot of other options. My boss falls into the latter camp, just traded his Tesla in for a BMW EV. Way better interior, not quite as fast, but that's not all that important for most people.

Tesla was seen as the only "real" option for a lot of EV enthusiasts, but they don't hold that position in the market anymore, of course sales are down...

Why not both?

There have been other options for a while, but Tesla being the first to really make a splash in the market maintained cache of being cool, hip, stylish, innovative, etc. Subjective feel-good reasons.

Now, Elon has effectively tanked the reputation of Tesla being the "coolest" EV brand. People who want a luxury status symbol are going to go Rivian, BMW, etc. People who want value/quality are going to look Korean or Japanese.

In reply to 1988RedT2 :

Care to expand?  I have no idea who this lady is.  

As for Tesla as a whole, I agree that they've stagnated.  Just the design language alone (aside from the cybertruck) seems to be the same for the last decade plus.  No way to tout the latest and greatest when a 2018 looks like a 2024.

I think Tesla has another, more classic problem that is also happening to hit right at the same moment as the Other Stuff...  The traditional car companies are entrenched, established behemoths that are very slow to change direction.  But once they do, they have so much natural momentum that they're really hard to compete against.  In 2018, the electric car market was comprised of a bunch of Teslas, the Smart ForTwo, the VW e-Golf, Leaf, Kia Soul, Hyundai Ioniq, Honda Clarity, Focus, Fiat, Bolt, and the i3.  The Focus had a max of 115 mile range and sold a grand total of 1,964 units at its peak in 2014.  Clarity Electric had a range of 89 miles and was only available as a lease in CA and OR.  The Leaf sold pretty well, but had a range of 149 miles and was kind of funny-looking.  The Bolt had decent range and was more widely available, but was a pretty small car.  You could get 125 miles out of an e-Golf.  I can't find US numbers for the e-Golf in my three seconds of searching, but I suspect there aren't that many.  BMW sold about 6,300 i3s in 2017.   In 2018, Tesla sold something like 93,000 Model 3s.

In the intervening years, however, the established automakers have been able to develop their own platforms and get them to market.  There's well over two hundred-fifty different models on the market right now, versus a small handful seven years ago.  Tesla's bet on the polarizing styling for their pickup truck is great if you like that sort of thing, but if you just need a truck occasionally and don't want to look like you're piloting some sort of spaceship, you can choose from the Rivian, Ford, Chevy, GMC, or Hummer entries.  The mid-size sedan and CUV/SUV market segments are also littered with entries from the conventional automakers.  The automakers that have a dealership on every corner, advertising budgets, and a history in the psyche of the consumer.

On top of that, hybrids are gaining steam again and while the traditional manufacturers are well-suited to be able to toss a gas engine into the mix, Tesla doesn't have that foundation on which to build, plus they've branded themselves as a champion of all-electric and kind of backed themselves into a corner with that. 

When all they had to compete against were some token city-car type entries, they were able to really mop up some massive market share in the "electric car" segment.  But I think the problem they're going to continue to have is that an electric car isn't really its own market segment any more and their market share of the "automobile" segment is much smaller.

In reply to Puddy46 :

https://wallstreetpit.com/125460-cathie-wood-doubles-down-on-tesla-sees-2600-target/

In reply to Mr_Asa :

Your meme is far too sophisticated for me.  I have no idea what you're trying to convey.

Maybe Tesla is like a original air-cooled VW bug , 

looks the same as 5-10 years ago but  much better under the skin , 

and like the VW bug it had no real small car competition for a decade or more until the Japanese started selling cars in the USA

Now  Tesla has to go up against many companies and  not even the new "Big Guy" on the block BYD.

I would not count Tesla out of the game .......

In reply to 1988RedT2 :

She's certainly an optimist, I'll give her that.

1988RedT2 said:

In reply to Puddy46 :

https://wallstreetpit.com/125460-cathie-wood-doubles-down-on-tesla-sees-2600-target/

2600$ when pigs fly out of my butt. PE is still insane right now even with all the problems they have. The market for some reason will just not judge TSLA the way other companies. I don't want them to fail they make a decent American product, I do want them to remove the idiot at the wheel and act like a funcational company though. 

The meme is a lady who is an investment talking head and thinks Tesla will become valuable based on robo-taxis.

I think Tesla has remarkably managed to walk the fine line that isolates and angers both side of the political spectrum. Their charging network is still the largest asset, and may be able to become a revenue driver. The carbon offset revenue is probably not able to continue though. I'm happy to have mine, as I was able to get the mix of battery chemistry, interior features, and tax credits I cared about when I bought so I don't care much about resale price. I think the prices plummeting is only a plus for EV ownership and DIY in general. I don't love the company, and I really don't like the figurehead, but I enjoy the product and hope the company can succeed (as well as Rivian). 

Toyman! said:

Tesla's problem is that the face of the company is a polarizing figure. 

At the moment, the people most likely to buy his vehicles despise him for reasons. 

This is why your business should be loud and shouty, and your politics should be quiet and kept in the back room with all the rest of your bad habits. 

That's the current obvious blame that covers up the core problem with Tesla- they have serious quality problems.  Even when Consumer Reports gave the S a perfect score, the reality is that it was actually a problematic car.  And we can't forget the problems the 3 had as it was always supposed to come out at some point.  Barely have to bring up the truck and it's problems.

Musk has constantly harped on the auto industry that it takes too long and costs too much to develop new cars, and be innovative.  He started that with the Roadster.  As if there is some kind of collaboration of development among the entire auto industry- which is the most competitive market on the planet by a pretty wide margin.  If there was really a better way of doing it. there's a 100% chance that someone would have come up with it, and then everyone else would copy it.

Because of the quality problems, there were some big hurdles coming right down the pipe- from some rather obvious class action lawsuits over the self driving feature to some nasty recalls that they have no choice but to do- the market was going to eventually implode.  The political cover of recent months has just sped that up.

Tesla makes more money selling CO2 credits than selling cars.  And as they lose market, other companies are going to snatch up even those payments.

Puddy46 said:

In reply to 1988RedT2 :

She's certainly an optimist, I'll give her that.

To anyone who doubts Cathie Wood's credentials, I would point out that she has lost more money than you could ever dream of.

https://protos.com/cathie-wood-the-believer-who-predicted-1-5m-per-bitcoin-has-lost-billions/

All those Tesla vehicles report home with all kinds of your data constantly.

Tesla is not a car company, they're a data and technology company.

They'll be fine as long as people are happy with zero privacy.

I'm aware that my Chevrolet spies on me as well.