Tesla Truck or not all disruption is good.

https://www.wired.com/story/what-does-teslas-truck-mean-for-truckers/

Pretty cool technology..  

I was an engineer for many many years working in facilities to automate production and reduce the reliance on... ahem.. resources... if you know what I mean.

I am a bit worried for all those out there who make a living behind the wheel.  Eventually, those positions will be reduced greatly. 

On the plus side, there is the potential to save lives lost in truck accidents.

On the negative side, is the potential loss of good middle class jobs.  

Will technology open up new positions for those displaced? Will those people want to change or move?  

Interesting discussions to have about technology and what we consider work.....

Fueled by Caffeine said:

Will technology open up new positions for those displaced?

Yes, historically it takes around 50 years. Sit tight for those new jobs!

Most common job in each state:

https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961

I am sure many of the short haul jobs will be around for a lot longer.  Long haul though is pretty ripe to be replaced (if they can deal with the range).

Wow, there are 4 states where software developer is the most common job!?

I don't get scared about the loss of jobs, I get scared about the lack of UBI. 

In reply to pheller :

I also fear for a lack of the United Bicycle Institute...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Bicycle_Institute

In reply to GameboyRMH :

Tell that to my pennsylvania coal miner relatives

While I can see many advantages to the tech, as driver assists, not as self driving trucks. The ability for a truck to be able to see an obstacle in it's path that the driver either doesn't see, is distracted, or is to tired to notice can't come soon enough! But what  I can't see is  people  allowing self driving trucks to move about on public highways.  If something goes wrong the results can be very bad and even if the tech can detect a problem and shuts the truck down that to may cause many a traffic back ups which the public will also not want.

I come from a back round of truck transportation, as a dispatcher, load scheduler,  driver recruiter, driver management, and yes I even drove a truck for a while. This tech is going to have to be tested for many years and fail safes will have to be put in place that won't cause their own problems before it takes to the public roads. And even then I would question it and just how safe it is.

Yes, historically it takes around 50 years. Sit tight for those new jobs!

I do not believe all of the jobs eliminated by automation will be replaced.  In the USA, we are already seeing the % of the population fully employed drop and I think this will be a trend for the foreseeable future.    

So, the most common job in the majority of US states is simply moving E36 M3 from one place to another?  That seems...inefficient.  

Remember, the automated vehicles only have be safer than humans to be a net benefit. And when you find a weird edge case, every truck will get updated with the new scenarios so the learning curve will be dramatic. Automated trucks make a lot of sense for long hauls, as a limited access highway is a much easier environment than a city. Give them a dedicated lane to go into convoy mode and they'll be safer, more efficient and faster than today. You can still use people to take care of the last mile if that makes you worried.

But ignoring the potential for automated, electric trucks look like they could work if the Tesla numbers are legit. You already have to take a 30 minute break at some point in the day, so if you can rack up another 400 miles of charge during that stop, that gives you the potential for a 900 mile range over the 11 hour shift. That's more than enough.

Disruption moves jobs around. We don't have a lot of call for blacksmiths anymore, but auto mechanics are a lot more in demand than they were. Heck, I'll bet the final result will be automated trucks that take care of the highway work while a human driver sleeps, then the human takes over for the more demanding city/port environment.

Wouldn't a diesel engined self driving truck make a lot more sense than a battery powered version?

T.J. said:

Wouldn't a diesel engined self driving truck make a lot more sense than a battery powered version?

Why? I don't see how the propulsion system makes a lot of difference, especially given Tesla's range claims for this thing. Unless you're thinking that the autotruck wouldn't be limited by HOS regulations, so it could take advantage of a 1000+ mile range. So there's one of our new jobs, pump jockeys for automated trucks

I want the acceleration and hill climbing advantages!  :^)

Regeneration on the downhills is very welcome as well.

There is also the problem with disappearing places to park a truck and the overcrowding at the pisslots.

A truck that has to be plugged in removes a lot of parking options.

Time management is critical to OTR drivers I can't be looking for a spot to park or waiting for my batteries to charge at the wrong time.

This just adds a new angle to the already over regulated workday of a driver, just what I need one more stress factor.

"If the wheels ain't turning, I ain't earning."

This gives me an idea for a new business, Mobile battery charging for big rigs!

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Just thinking that 500 miles worth a diesel fuel weighs less than 500 miles worth of batteries and the tank can be filled up a lot faster.

aircooled said:

Most common job in each state:

 

Weird. I don't see thief anywhere near DC. Check your sources.

T.J. said:

Wouldn't a diesel engined self driving truck make a lot more sense than a battery powered version?

For the way typical big rigs are driven, yes. The Tesla truck will probably be aimed more at niche roles with shorter drives and more downtime.

There's another company making a turbine-powered serial hybrid truck, that makes the most sense right now.

In reply to T.J. :

A semi can have anywhere form 100-400 gallons on board.. So.. 400 gallons at 4 mpg is 1600 miles range? seems like diesel is a better choice now.

In reply to N Sperlo :

it says lawyer.. close enough

WilD said:

Yes, historically it takes around 50 years. Sit tight for those new jobs!

I do not believe all of the jobs eliminated by automation will be replaced.  In the USA, we are already seeing the % of the population fully employed drop and I think this will be a trend for the foreseeable future.    

Actually I'm inclined to agree with you. Some people argue that what appears to be a long-term trend of job loss is just accumulated temporary job loss, and the jobs will flood back in later. But for most humans that's an academic issue. Also as more people get into more "trivial" entertainment-related jobs, they could soon run into the hard limit of the amount of human attention available.

T.J. said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Just thinking that 500 miles worth a diesel fuel weighs less than 500 miles worth of batteries and the tank can be filled up a lot faster.

For now. Give it a few years and it will be the reverse.

akamcfly said:

T.J. said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Just thinking that 500 miles worth a diesel fuel weighs less than 500 miles worth of batteries and the tank can be filled up a lot faster.

For now. Give it a few years and it will be the reverse.

maybe.  I have 0 faith in tesla's ability to manufacture anything at scale.

WilD said:

Yes, historically it takes around 50 years. Sit tight for those new jobs!

I do not believe all of the jobs eliminated by automation will be replaced.  In the USA, we are already seeing the % of the population fully employed drop and I think this will be a trend for the foreseeable future.    

I'd argue that they will be but the types of jobs created will move up market requiring training and education. Machinery which is automated still needs to be serviced and inspected and as they become more prevalent you'll see an industry build up and expansion to address those needs. I'd bet it'll be close to parity.

I used to tell the pilots for the UAS systems I worked on that the engineers weren't trying to replace my job so enjoy the money while it lasts.

It's probably a good time to start thinking about starting up a displaced work force education program. That would benefit both coal miners and truck drivers but I'm sure it'll be killed by governmental dysfunction as it's "socialist" to provide funding for adult reeducation.

When this becomes prevalent, charging will morph into mobile recharge rigs, similar to in-air fueling. An automated slave truck will pull alongside and connect while in motion, then return to its home base to recharge its pack while another in the recharge fleet heads out from base. 

The vast majority of miles covered by trucks are long distance. 

It would be incredibly easy to designate some existing coast to coast interstate highways for long distance OTR, and define specific lanes separated from cars by concrete dividers. 

I see no reason why the general public would hesitate in the least.