Tesla Truck or not all disruption is good.

In reply to SVreX :

Like most things related to Tesla, it's a risk based on potential. WalMart is about the ideal candidate for testing these trucks if you ask me, and if they can make it work, there's a lot more than 3 million on the line. Nobody controls as much of the transportation of their goods as Walmart. They own distribution centers, where chargers can easily be installed. They own a network of stores that are typically pretty close to the distribution centers, so range shouldn't be much of a concern. And of course chargers can be installed at more stores as well. So, if anybody can make this work, it's going to be somebody like Walmart. Conversely, if they can't make it work, then it doesn't bode well for the rest of the industry, and just because  it works for Walmart, doesn't mean it will work for every use case. There's a big difference between skipping between chargers within a defined, ideal region and having to haul across multiple states not knowing if the dock you're loading/unloading at will have a charger that you can use, or how much it might cost to use that charger if it does exist.

SVreX said:

In reply to frenchyd :

You are welcome to your opinion.  We disagree.  If self driving trucks do not lead to reduced costs in the labor force (read: unemployment), then there is no reason for them to be developed at all.

The investment in this technology is specifically for the purpose of reducing costs and increasing profits.  I see no other options.

Why would a trucking fleet spend nearly twice as much per truck just so they could be "clean"? (and have to deal with range issues, new tech issues, etc...)

From what I've read and heard from friends I picture at first much of the labor cost coming from reducing the hours worked per employee rather than than eliminating positions.  Right now it's difficult to hire and retain qualified people so the employees you have can pretty much work as many hours as they want. Once you cut out the number of people needed to mindlessly slog across the interstates you can just use the drivers you have to handle the more difficult to automate ends of the runs, work them 40 hours a week, not have to pay them overtime and send them home every night.  In many companies in order to fill the work there are various bonuses that kick in after a certain amount of work so the savings becomes substantial.

In reply to Wally : 

Airlines have the ability to take off, fly, and land without the aide of pilots and have had that ability for decades. As have ships and trains.  

Yet there is a shortage of pilots not massive unemployment.  

What makes everybody think self driving means truck drivers will suddenly be on the dole?  Given Tesla’s inability to meet production goals I doubt they will make a tiny drop in the bucket.  When production does ramp up can you see politicians saying, “ I’ll be brave and vote to put millions of truckers out of work.”  Or do you see them calling for further study?  

Let’s be real, politicians do know how to count votes. 

In reply to Wally : 

As a holder of a CDL with airbrake endorsement I’ve looked hard at over the road trucking.  The income advertised is significant.  The reality is wildly different.  

Walk into any truck stop restaurant and sit down with truckers and ask.  Less than one in 50 will tell you that you should do it and the money is as good as advertised. 

Most will tell you they can’t or won’t do anything else. And talk about failed or failing medical certificates. Can you keep your blood pressure under 130/90 when the pressure is on you to be on time, don’t violate any company rules or policies, keep your driving record free of tickets and make the companies you drive for happy?  

I understand the pilot argument, but the FAA mandates them.  So the argument doesn’t work. 

My mom was born in a Pennsylvania coal town.  ( same town as the miracle of the bells was set in  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Miracle_of_the_Bells). The only big employer around there now are a few amazon warehouses maybe a long drive to a paper mill.  Her family dosent want to work there as all they want to do is mine coal. They don’t want to change and ultimately that will be their undoing. 

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

Do you honestly believe that all the cities, states, towns ​​​, counties and federal government will simply allow trucks to drive on their roads  without drivers to give tickets to? 

It wont happen!  Politicians can count and truckers, their family’s, friends and Supporters’s won’t vote for any politician who allows it.  

In reply to frenchyd :

There’s an even easier revenue stream than relying on tickets. It’s obvious that the fuel tax will need to be revamped with the lack of fuel. Since the truck is using GPS to navigate we will likely go to a straight per mile road use fee, probably higher for an autonomous vehicle, easily reported and billed in real-time.  

the UK has a "user fee" that you pay to drive or even park your car on a public road called a "vehicle excise duty". I can see the US going to such a system. It mostly goes by emissions, but with hybrids and the like appearing, they are adding "value" to it

In reply to Wally :you are probably right except one thing.  I just can’t see politicians accepting driverless vehicles anymore than I can see pilotless airlines.  

I believe autonomous vehicles will happen  I just see it as a gradual thing where for the foreseeable  future somebody will be looking out the windshield. Just like somebody looks out an airliners windshield.  

I was being ironic when I spoke about not being able to give a ticket to an autonomous truck.  ( but you couldn’t see my smile or hear my chuckle)  

frenchyd wrote:

 

Most will tell you they can’t or won’t do anything else. And talk about failed or failing medical certificates. Can you keep your blood pressure under 130/90 when the pressure is on you to be on time, don’t violate any company rules or policies, keep your driving record free of tickets and make the companies you drive for happy?  

As jobs change they won’t have much of a choice. I started out in towing, and I loved doing it.  Unfortunately the market changed and it was very tough to be profitable, remain legal, and provide the level of service I liked.  Seeing that it was going to get worse I got out  and became a city bus driver.  It’s not as enjoyable as working on my own with a few trucks but it’s stable and pays the bills. If you think keeping a company happy is difficult try a city agency where every unhappy customer can go on Twitter and have you taken out of service until your claim is found to be baseless.  

 

 

 

frenchyd said:

In reply to Wally :you are probably right except one thing.  I just can’t see politicians accepting driverless vehicles anymore than I can see pilotless airlines.  

I believe autonomous vehicles will happen  I just see it as a gradual thing where for the foreseeable  future somebody will be looking out the windshield. Just like somebody looks out an airliners windshield.  

I was being ironic when I spoke about not being able to give a ticket to an autonomous truck.  ( but you couldn’t see my smile or hear my chuckle)  

 

I think allowing them in congested areas areas will take a while but I don’t think it will be politicians stopping it.  We are looking at lots of tech now because labor is such a big expense but being a government agency if we thought it couldn’t be approved we would be spending time on it.  It’s coming, and in many places it will be sooner than you would think.  

I’m a little late to the party, but my $.02 is that this current truck that Tesla has put out was obviously not consulted with DOT or the FMCSA. Hell, they say they consulted truck drivers, but I can guarantee they weren’t drivers that operate in the real world. 

The FMCSA currently does not allow camera mirrors. Daimler AG tried 2 years ago to get the FMCSA to change the law and they concluded that Camera Mirrors show no benefit over conventional body mounted mirrors. 

On top of that, the center driving position will not work in the real world. Maybe in a Syd Mead illustration, but not in 2018. 

The suicide doors aren’t realistic. Cool? Yes. But there is safety issues along with the fact that when truck drivers get out of the truck. Half the time they are going to the back of the truck. 

Unless Tesla redesigns the cab for the real world, this truck will not get off the ground. 

In reply to SyntheticBlinkerFluid :

The cab was an attention getter much to get the non-industry press interested. They always try to make them look revolutionary.  If they rolled out a big white cube in Walmart livery 3/4 of the crowd would have walked out.  The side cameras are standard show truck fare as well.  I would expect the final product to look more like a cleaned up ProStar since the aero on a stubby conventional is a bit better than a cab over.

I’m intrigued by the battery. We’re getting ready to test another electric bus.  It’s going on a crosstown line that runs about 2.5 miles each way.  They will charge all night, and a charging station will be installed at each terminal to top off throughout the day. Clearly we’re not getting the same battery.

In reply to Wally :

Since I drive a school bus I know exactly what you speak about. Luckily we have 5 cameras that have proven me correct whenever issues have arisen

In reply to frenchyd :

Our guys fought the cameras at first but they clear a lot of incidents.  Now many of them try to make sure they always get a camera bus.

In reply to Wally :

Remarkably once you are over 60 school bus driver is one of a few  places that will hire you. Other places,  no matter what your credentials are or how successful you’ve been in the past look for the younger employee. 

Like many others I was forced to take employment driving a school bus because of age discrimination.  

After 5 years I sort of enjoy it.  But I suppose if I had root canals done for 5 years I’d sort of enjoy them too.  

I just noticed this thread title can be read two very different ways:

"Tesla truck: or not all disruption is good" or "Tesla truck or not: all disruption is good"

silly english.

In reply to Robbie :

Boooooooooo English police.