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Slippery
Slippery Dork
11/18/16 10:13 a.m.
tuna55 wrote: I would not buy anything Elon is selling.

Why?

stuart in mn
stuart in mn UltimaDork
11/18/16 10:31 a.m.

Don't know much at all about Teslas but there seems to be quite a few of them in the Minneapolis area, I see them on a daily basis - mostly the Model S, but I also saw one of the SUVs a couple days ago.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
11/18/16 10:43 a.m.
Slippery wrote:
tuna55 wrote: I would not buy anything Elon is selling.
Why?

Looking at his dealings, selling a company to your cousin and then using the federal government to start a new company which goes back and buys the first one again?

Smells like a crook, looks like a crook...

Who's left holding the bag in ten years when he gets bored and everyone realizes nothing he built can be serviced, or whatever?

pheller
pheller PowerDork
11/18/16 10:49 a.m.

Must resist flounder...something something leader of free world.

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
11/18/16 10:53 a.m.
pheller wrote: Must resist flounder...something something leader of free world.

I'm right there with you brother.. Right there.

My beef with Tesla is that they seem to think they know better than the automotive manufacturing world on how to mass produce a car. I think they're starting to realize how hard it is to do quality at scale.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
11/18/16 11:11 a.m.

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine:

Yup.

Slippery
Slippery Dork
11/18/16 11:25 a.m.

I apologize if my question brought a political side to the thread.

I was not my intention, I dont even like politics. It was an honest question, I thought he had a different reason.

STM317
STM317 HalfDork
11/18/16 11:40 a.m.
pheller wrote: Powerwall and Solar Roofs allow people to get off grid (which lots of limited government types enjoy)

I agree with your overall point that high tech manufacturing should be embraced but have to say that the Powerwall and Solar Roof tech won't help most Americans get completely off grid, and its still prohibitively expensive.

The0retical
The0retical Dork
11/18/16 11:48 a.m.

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine:

You and SVreX are right on the money with the way Tesla is going about its business and why I'm both excited and leery of them.

The tax credit doesn't end right when the 200k number is hit though, it just phases out. So it might make sense depending upon where you are in line and the production capacity.

Here's what the IRS has to say:

IRS Notice 2009-89 said: The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period. After December 31, 2009, a vehicle that qualifies for a credit under § 30 does not qualify for the credit under § 30D.

Here's the link

Personally I'm more interested in the Bolt due to the fact that Tesla, as you mentioned, still hasn't got its manufacturing house in order.

yupididit
yupididit HalfDork
11/18/16 12:06 p.m.

Are Tesla's unreliable? I have at least 9 or 10 coworkers with Tesla's. Not heard a complaint at all. I'm in southern California, active duty military.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
11/18/16 12:11 p.m.

Well powertrain-wise they're obviously in a different league than anything with an ICE, it's a much simpler, much less stressed system. For other things the Model S seems to be pretty good, the Model X on the other hand is definitely below average with achey-breaky windshields and glitchy body electronics.

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
11/18/16 12:30 p.m.
yupididit wrote: Are Tesla's unreliable? I have at least 9 or 10 coworkers with Tesla's. Not heard a complaint at all. I'm in southern California, active duty military.

They take care of any issues quickly and quietly. Software can be updated remotely and their service is top notch. Customers also have different expectations from tesla to ford.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
11/18/16 12:33 p.m.
Slippery wrote: I apologize if my question brought a political side to the thread. I was not my intention, I dont even like politics. It was an honest question, I thought he had a different reason.

no no, it's not a political reason, I just don't trust the guy, he seems like a con man.

Mike
Mike Dork
11/18/16 12:50 p.m.
Type Q wrote: Musk Kool-aid

Eww.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
11/18/16 12:58 p.m.

I think I would describe him more like a wheeler-dealer.

That could be bad, or could be good.

I worked for a guy like him at one point. He was extremely creative, driven, pitched things REALLY, REALLY high, and often won. But was viewed by some of his creditors or employees at times in an unsavory way.

The truth is (with the guy I was working for), he was generally smarter than everyone else in the room. He wasn't dishonest, but he always won at the negotiating table. He wrote excellent contracts, understood deals and loopholes, and always got more than people realized (one of his tactics was to negotiate for ownership stakes in most of his customer's products and/or businesses. They often gave away too much, and he ended up with intellectual property, patent ownership, and partnerships. Some of these were worthless, but many became very valuable, partly because of his contribution.)

Is that a con man, or a smart business man? Yup.

bastomatic
bastomatic UltraDork
11/18/16 1:04 p.m.

Some of the things I've heard recently - Model X owners waiting months on parts after an accident, high rate of defects almost double that of the competition - give me a bit of pause but probably not enough to cancel. the political climate also gives me pause but not enough to cancel.

But Tesla's inability to open a dealership or service center within my state is a no-go.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
11/18/16 1:08 p.m.

In reply to bastomatic:

How did you get to live in berkeley?

Gary
Gary Dork
11/18/16 1:10 p.m.

Tuna said:

I just don't trust the guy, he seems like a con man.

I agree. Musk is a master at acquiring venture capital. That takes a master salesman. From my experience master salesmen are mostly con men.

Here's what Bob Lutz has to say about him:

Lutz on Musk

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
11/18/16 1:12 p.m.
bastomatic wrote: But Tesla's inability to open a dealership or service center within my state is a no-go.

I hear you- that would be a problem.

But I am also convinced that that particular problem will fix itself. There is going to have to be change. Either regulators will allow Tesla's direct-to-buyer model, or Tesla will adopt a more traditional dealership structure.

Or maybe Tesla will create a service network of affiliated and certified repair shops.

Either way, Tesla is gonna have to adapt if they want to sell the number of cars they say they do. That's part of becoming a legit manufacturer.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
11/18/16 1:27 p.m.
Gary wrote: Here's what Bob Lutz has to say about him: Lutz on Musk

Cigar-chomping curmudgeonly businessman VS flashy Silicon Valley tech CEO, FIGHT!!!

Gary
Gary Dork
11/18/16 1:30 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

In my opinion, many years of auto company experience in the trenches trumps Silicon Valley flash all day long. Lutz might be old, but he doesn't think old school.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
11/18/16 1:39 p.m.

Lutz thinks very old school from what I've seen, and he's been saying that Tesla is going to collapse like a house of cards any minute now, for many many years now, and so far he's been wrong. He seems to have a bit of a hate-boner for Tesla in particular.

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
11/18/16 1:55 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

I believe we should take what Lutz says with a grain of salt, but he has serious industry chops. I mean, He got Chevy to build the volt. That's a hell of a ground breaking car.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
11/18/16 2:01 p.m.

I said I would buy something Elon Musk is selling. I did not necessarily say I would buy a Tesla. That is sometimes a hard distinction among car guys.

Musk will survive, in a much bigger way than Lutz can ever imagine. It won't necessarily be selling Teslas.

Musk is perfectly happy making his money selling zero-emissions credits to Lutz through both GM and Chrysler. Lutz can buy as much as he wants. (GM is currently the biggest buyer, and Tesla is currently the biggest seller).

And if the Bolt is GM's solution to the future, Musk will be happy to sell them electric infrastructure too.

Tesla is a drop in the bucket to Musk, and Lutz is only talking about Tesla, which Musk doesn't need to survive (though I think he will keep it around, because it is a very good front for his real business).

Gary
Gary Dork
11/18/16 2:17 p.m.

Tesla definitely does things differently. I've never met Musk, but I did have a chance to meet Tesla's chief exterior designer last month. He reports directly to Musk. He used to be the chief designer at old school Mazda, so he has experience from both perspectives. He would only admit that things are done differently at Tesla, but wouldn't elaborate. Also, before I retired I was involved in selling several million dollars of manufacturing equipment to Tesla's Fremont, CA facility (the former GM-Toyota NUMMI joint venture factory). It was a bizarre purchasing process compared to the formal due-diligence purchasing process with GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, et al. So will this new-age car manufacturing/selling business model succeed? No doubt time will tell. But I'm personally not buying any Tesla stock at this juncture.

(Yes, this thread is about Tesla the brand, not Elon Musk the businessman. Even if Tesla folds, he will continue to sell new ideas, because he's an idea-man. It seems that's what he does best. He's the consummate master salesman. And you know what that means).

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