Throwing in the towel...electric cars are going to be the future.

alfadriver wrote:

GameboyRMH wrote: 50 years!?!? I think most new cars will be EVs by 2025.

I personally don't think that a majority of new cars in 50 years will be electric. For sure, not in 11 years. Right now EV's are less than 1% of the market. (Through Sept, there are just under 90k total electric sales in the US, project that to close to 120k- but the market is about 15M for the CY, world wide, EV's are double that, but the market is at least 3-4x larger than the US). How one can see a 1% market expand to 50% in less than 10 years is kinda a stretch. More likely that transportation options will be forced to change.

EVs are rapidly improving and getting cheaper, oil is getting more expensive and ICE technology is DEEP into the diminishing returns...the economics of it could effectively force transportation options to change.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

EV's are improving a ton, sure. And getting cheaper- well, sort of. It will be interesting when the market reacts to a doubling of the demand of the battery materials. And it needs to go up by 50x to be half the market.

ICE still has some room. We are working on it.

Bear in mind, a lot of the development of the EV is going to hinge on it using less energy- which helps the range issue. ICE cars benefit by that, too.

The question more for the ICE market is if the customers can be convinced that smaller and slower is ok. Maybe back to 90's sizes and performance. That would extend the fuel by quite a bit.

By 2025, Tier 3 and LEVIII will be fully implemented- which will reduce energy useage for cars quite a bit. Not many know, but much of the 55mpg CAFE can be integrated into the making of the car- the new rules are dust to dust rules, so anyway the energy to make a car can be reduced, that gets counted for it's lifetime usage of fuel.

HiTempguy wrote: People dont quite understand how insanity defying an electrical grid would be to support everyone driving cars.

Setting aside that everyone driving electric cars is never going to happen, just how much electricity do you think it takes to run an electric car? My Volt consumed an average of about 10kWh/day - almost always overnight when demand is lower - to drive 30-40 miles. It used less electricity than my electric water heater. Not only that, but I seemed to claw back about 1/2 my additional usage by updating a bunch of the almost-always-on lightbulbs in my house to CFL or LED.

Peak loading might be a temporary problem (everyone arrives home at 5:30 and plugs a car in at max charge rate) but I'm pretty confident a solution will not be too challenging.

""

Electricity storage in the vehicle and recharging times are the only real hold backs, NOHOME got it.

There are a few other issues associated with electric cars. The power grid we have today can not handle an increase in load required to charge cars. Hell to be honest in some areas they can't handle the load they currently have. (I just erased a huge political rant to stay nice, just insert multiple bad words about no leadership or vision here.) We have an infrastructure problem and no one is addressing it.

Last night was the first time in my life I really wanted an electric car. I was driving along Lake Pontchartrain and the moon was reflecting off the water. I could hear the tide over the sound of the X3 but I just wished the Bimmer wasn't making any noise. The whole thing was very peaceful. It just would have been better with out the car sounds.

I am getting old.

I wonder if, like the bike I posted in the 1st page, there is room in the market for a "car" that can be classified as a motorcycle but toss out all of the regulations that go with the govt. definition of "CAR".

It obviously would not be a mass market type vehicle but a cool, accessible, inexpensive runabout that gets the public used to the idea in the way a scooter is used in San Fransisco but with heat and weather protection for Chicago and a stable "not a motorcycle" image so people feel safe choosing it as their first transportation.

Anything I've seen has been an overwrought 3 wheeler with no more functionality than a motorcycle with a sidecar whereas I'm thinking electric classic mini sized thing with a plastic body and composite safety structure from a formula race car. The Elise mentality with a real trunk and focus on practical grocery shopping.

You mean like this? (That is a serious question)

Flight Service wrote: You mean like this? (That is a serious question)

Yes - but exploiting some loophole in NHTSA rules that makes it 1000lbs lighter and still road legal even if you have to wear a helmet.

Giant Purple Snorklewacker wrote:

Flight Service wrote: You mean like this? (That is a serious question)

Yes - but exploiting some loophole in NHTSA rules that makes it 1000lbs lighter and still road legal even if you have to wear a helmet.

No!

If there were room for that in the market right now they would be selling it everywhere and making money instead of just a few select states because they have to.

That's an easy question. It's a product that they offer for sale, but it's so bad of a business decision that they don't even sell it in the majority of US markets.

My parent's have had their Leaf for a year now and have had a great experience with it. It's makes for an extremely practical, inexpensive commuter car. However--it's not their only vehicle, so the mileage limitations are less problematic. And the lease price was heavily subsidized by Federal, State and Nissan incentives.

Take away the taxpayer-funded subsidies and the car is much less compelling. Take away the luxury of a second vehicle and it's its limited range and charging times are an immediate deal-breaker for many families. With this in mind, I don't see full-electrics gaining sizable market share any time soon.

+1 to all the logistics stuff being the chief inhibitor. Think about how much gas we burn every year. Then think about how much electricity will be required to replaced the energy output of that gasoline. That number has to be staggering. Where's it going to come from?

I'm not saying that question will prevent electric cars from becoming mainstream. But it's a question we'll have to answer--in a really detailed and practical way--before that ever happens.

Attempting to build the electric car before the electric car infrastructure is insane.

tuna55 wrote:

Giant Purple Snorklewacker wrote:

Flight Service wrote: You mean like this? (That is a serious question)

Yes - but exploiting some loophole in NHTSA rules that makes it 1000lbs lighter and still road legal even if you have to wear a helmet.

No! If there were room for that in the market right now they would be selling it everywhere and making money instead of just a few select states because they have to.

They are bound by rules that make it have to be a car. That makes it have to follow all the regulations that add weight and complexity and cost.

If I could buy a version of that that was 1500lbs with batteries installed for $15k I just might. It's 2100lbs and $25k right now and can only carry 419lbs payload which includes people AND groceries. There must be room for some sort of engineering creativity outside the bounds existing crash/emissions/etc rules for cars - I think the market exists because I see people riding scooters with milk cartons full of groceries bungie corded on the back in the rain.

Giant Purple Snorklewacker wrote: I wonder if, like the bike I posted in the 1st page, there is room in the market for a "car" that can be classified as a motorcycle but toss out all of the regulations that go with the govt. definition of "CAR". It obviously would not be a mass market type vehicle but a cool, accessible, inexpensive runabout that gets the public used to the idea in the way a scooter is used in San Fransisco but with heat and weather protection for Chicago and a stable "not a motorcycle" image so people feel safe choosing it as their first transportation. Anything I've seen has been an overwrought 3 wheeler with no more functionality than a motorcycle with a sidecar whereas I'm thinking electric classic mini sized thing with a plastic body and composite safety structure from a formula race car. The Elise mentality with a real trunk and focus on practical grocery shopping.

I think the closest thing to that, which isn't even in production yet, is the Elio. It's a 3 wheeler, so it's motorcycle seating, but as close as you'll get to what you're describing. I think it'd be a b!tch and a half to build a sub 2000 pound 4 wheeled car with enough room to do practical grocery shopping, unless you make it so expensive nobody could afford it.

tuna55 wrote: If there were room for that in the market right now they would be selling it everywhere and making money instead of just a few select states because they have to.

Bit of a chicken and egg scenario; you can't sell a product until there is demand. There can't be demand if the market doesn't even know such a thing exists (and is actually a product that fills the needs of those buying it).

So I wouldn't necessarily say there isn't room in the market. I'd say that the public simply needs to realize that there is a solution to the hole in the market that is currently unfilled.

I didn't know there was such a thing (electric smart car), therefore, how would I ever buy it (if it is available)?

HiTempguy wrote: I didn't know there was such a thing (electric smart car), therefore, how would I ever buy it (if it is available)?

^this^

I didn't know it existed until this thread and then I went and looked up the specs.

The electric Smarts are only sold in a few markets, and they actually don't want to sell them because they lose money on each one they build - they're only made to bring up the fleet standard.

I figure I have about 3 years or so before I am in the market again for a new(to me) car, right now I am leaning toward electric as I am so happy with the wife's Volt. If the Tesla Model 3 is within striking range that'll be it, maybe a BMW i3 if we can make it work with two kiddos.

I mean, this is just cool

Giant Purple Snorklewacker wrote:

HiTempguy wrote: I didn't know there was such a thing (electric smart car), therefore, how would I ever buy it (if it is available)?

^this^ I didn't know it existed until this thread and then I went and looked up the specs.

You didn't know about it because the Automaker did all their math and decided that there was no market. Same with the e500, the Fit EV and a slew of others. Only the Leaf sells a reasonably priced (carving out Tesla) EV in all 50 states.

Yeah yeah, Ford says they do, but they really don't.

So all these companies have decided that it isn't independently viable for them to sell it.

Listen, I want one. I drive a Leaf every day. I am just pointing out that these folks have all developed a mature product. All the design/compliance work has been done. And they have decided that just the cost of selling to other regions isn't worth what they'd make. Yes, they do know better than you or I as to what will make money and what will not.

tuna55 wrote: I am just pointing out that these folks have all developed a mature product. All the design/compliance work has been done.

This part is the problem.

You are missing my point. What exists is bloated and expensive so, no, there is no market for that.

There shouldn't be compliance work that needs to be done. They should not be designing into an existing rules framework. Something like an "experimental aircraft" category is needed here so they can be interesting AND cheap. Like the fairly mature electric motorcycle I posted on page 1.

An enclosed golf cart would be an improvement on a scooter in foul weather and it already has the right range and weight. You will get arrested if you drive it to the store though even if you point out the irony of that in light of the motorcycles, scooters and silly two wheeled balance thingies in the same parking lot.

I will say this..I would be interested in an EV vehicle if they had paddle shifters with it. I need something to shift when I am behind the wheel.

In reply to tuna55:

What do you think is the largest cost prohibitor, the motors, the batteries, the Federal Regs, or the different production methodologies required to build them?

92dxman wrote: I will say this..I would be interested in an EV vehicle if they had paddle shifters with it. I need something to shift when I am behind the wheel.

1 speed

In reply to Giant Purple Snorklewacker:

In all fairness a 48V golf cart that does less than 20 is about $6k If you extrapolate the speed out it is about the same. The Leaf does 90 so 4.5 times the cost or $27k. 'Bout right.

Flight Service wrote: You mean like this? (That is a serious question)

How about the GEM?

Flight Service wrote: In reply to tuna55: What do you think is the largest cost prohibitor, the motors, the batteries, the Federal Regs, or the different production methodologies required to build them?

Batteries.

A replacement for the Leaf is $5,500. There is no single component on a $30k vehicle that costs that much.

In reply to Giant Purple Snorklewacker:

I got it, I promise, but developing/engineering/bringing that thing to market, even if the NHTSA and all just said "yah, ok, berkeley it" would still be pretty expensive.