Watch value question from a guy who hasn't worn a watch in 30 years

Let me preface this whole thing by firmly stating that this is more of a thought exercise than anything else. And again, I haven't worn a watch of any kind in 30 years.

After ignoring this thread for a couple of years  https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/off-topic-discussion/hmm-what-are-you-wearing-watch-related-topic/170865/page1/ , I clicked on it last night, read the whole thing, and it got me thinking.

Obviously, there are some watch enthusiasts here, so to you, I throw this out there for discussion:

In the Rolex world (and I'm not talking about crazy collectible stuff like a Paul Newman Daytona or anything even remotely like that), if you buy a fairly common model like a $6000 Oyster Perpetual, what's it worth in ten years?

Is it still worth six grand?

Is it worth half of of what you paid ($3000)?

If the cost of a new one goes up to, say, $8000, is your watch worth $7000?

And I'm not talking about a watch that you keep in it's original box and stash away in a safe for ten years. Assume that you keep the box and paperwork, but wear it four days per week.

Enlighten me.

From what a jeweler friend keeps posting on FB, Rolex prices/values keep going up, up, up. 

Depends entirely on the face and the band. A standard looses about 40% of its new value out the door and then tends to stay around there if it is SS and a decent face. Inflation keeps the value up. The platinum and gold version lose a bit more. 

The date just about 30% then same thing, the sports watches a bit less. The Daytona looses the least IMO. A SS Daytona is always going to hold it;s value the best of anything they make short of maybe a Pepsi sea dweller 

In general anything with diamonds or other stones drop quickly and more then basic SS watches on oyster bands. Jubilee bands tend to drop more then Oyster. Leather tends to not have great resale as well except on some of the Daytona for some reason.

Understand this is in a normal market. Right now it is not a normal market. Even base women datejusts are going above MSRP because there is no stock and there is an expected massive hike in MSRP due to inflation. 

Can't really answer your question over future value of reasonably worn Rolex...

But do want to point out that YOUR value is important, too.  Going on your Rolex example- are you getting a Rolex for the personal pleasure of getting it, or getting it because it's a Rolex?  For the former, that's just like any car- you are getting it for the right reasons.  For the latter, I would look into other watches that give you the exact same thing (or more, depending on what you are looking at) for the money.

You've not had a watch for 30 years, so this isn't about having the time on your wrist.  This is quite literally jewelry for you.  So it should make you happy over the other people in the room.  And rarely has anyone I've been around (other than in a watch store) ever noticed my watch.  Which has really emphasized the personal nature of getting one.

What alfa said. If you get it for the "right" reasons then the actual value isn't really critical-the emotional attachment is what matters. If you're going to die with it on your wrist, and it's not preventing you from doing other things that you want to, then who cares if it's value is less or more than what you bought it for?

A rolex (IMHO) is a poor-man's, rich-man's watch. It's what blue collar and middle class people aspire to because they think it's what rich people wear. 

Actual rich people are wearing $100k brands that you've probably never heard of and wouldn't recognize.

Again...this is more of a thought exercise, as I'm not shopping for a Rolex.

This all came about as I was reading the watch thread and started thinking that if I bought something like a $1000 Hamilton and enjoyed it for ten years and then croaked, my survivors might be able to throw it on the 2032 equivalent of eBay and get, maybe, $150 bucks for it.

So then I started wondering how things happen at the dull end of the Rolex spectrum.

If I ever choose to wear a watch again, it would absolutely be because I would enjoy it for what it is and not for what others might think. I'm pretty sure that there have only been two occasions in my lifetime when I noticed what brand of non-Swatch that someone was wearing, and it still didn't matter that much to me.

In reply to wearymicrobe :

I am surprised to hear that a Jubilee band would depreciate faster than an Oyster, as I think that they are better looking and look like they would be much more comfortable.

In reply to Woody (Forum Supportum) :

I really enjoy finding affordable microbrands that have great style and value. My whole collection is less than 1 "name brand" base model, and I have had dozens of watch conversations as people saw them. It's fun to be on the affordable end of the spectrum and it makes it a lot more relatable with others. My kids all have watches now because they wanted them because mine are "cool". I guarantee the kids are going to love mine when I leave/give them to them because of the happy memories and associations, not because of a "value".

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

In reply to wearymicrobe :

I am surprised to hear that a Jubilee band would depreciate faster than an Oyster, as I think that they are better looking and look like they would be much more comfortable.

So you are absolutely right, they are the better band IMO but the Oyster value is higher because it looks sportier. Also the mens watches tend to have the Oyster and now with some changes Rolex has been making even some of the smaller womens come in a Oyster band. 

The new "it" watch from Rolex for women is the full sized date just with a Oyster. I see it when I travel all the time.  

If you are buying a Rolex for investment. you buy Daytona's in SS in good condition with interesting face layouts. If you were to ask me then I would buy used Patek's specially white gold or platinum World Timers. 

The other thing with the really high end watches is that it a very stealthy way to get cash in and out of a country If you are Chinese and you "buy" a Daytona in the US when you are traveling and bring it back with you. Its something that has value in every country in the world and is not declared when you travel. So you an buy one at home, travel to the states put it in a safety deposit box and do it again and again if you cannot move money out of a country. 

Stone's are the same way but harder to fence/sell. When I had the Pawn business and diamonds actually sold that was the way to do it as well. The number of amazing stones set into dirt cheap settings brought across borders and sold for 25% of market pricing was amazing. I had 6.8c stone once brought to me on a stainless steel ring where they had basically used ever single prong they could fit to keep the stone stable and not lose it in transport.  

In reply to wearymicrobe :

Very interesting. 

IMO I'd say if you can score a limited edition of a Rolex or Omega then it has the most potential to increase in value.

Personally I think the collector watch and car market are both in a bubble right now and I expect it pop at some time.

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

In reply to wearymicrobe :

Very interesting. 

Oh it gets worse. Before the airport screening really intense I would get handed stones that were attached to clit rings. Cannot feel them when you get padded down and in most cases they were on cheap small studs so they would not set off metal detectors.

Did a deal where a women pulled what must have been a low 6 figure stone out by dropping her shorts in the back of a store. If I remember correctly it was a high dollar marriage with domestic abuse charges and she anted the cash to get out of dodge. My buyer at the time could care less he just wanted stones for cheap. 

You get good at noticing those settings, which is why I still wear gloves while handling stones in unusual settings when they are for sale. Does not happen that much anymore because lab grown stones have made things like 1.5c or bigger stud earrings a more affordable thing and people cannot tell the difference between real and fake at a glance. 

Back in the day I just did the broker work, setup sellers with buyer on the really high end. i would buy when I needed a stone for a friend and could get stuff 30% of retail and in some cases much better sizes then they thought they could afford. The big stones ~9c and above are harder to sell. They also sell for less then you wold think, nobody wants to buy a "used" diamond which I just think is hilarious. The diamond has been around longer then you py a factor of 100,000+ years. Funny enough old money never cared where the stones came from but would pay a premium for Canadian stones that were marked and has a clean history from non conflict zones. 

In reply to wearymicrobe :

That's amazing. If you have any other stories from your pawn store/clit ring days I'm all ears. 

It is worth more.  I keep an inherited watch in the safe for this reason.  I still wear a watch, but I'm silly like that.

CrustyRedXpress said:

In reply to wearymicrobe :

That's amazing. If you have any other stories from your pawn store/clit ring days I'm all ears. 

Bought cars from the russian mob, sold a armored car to a taco stand kingpin in Mexico, bought another car from the head of the Aryan brotherhood out west and did not know it till I picked it up. Bailed people out of jail, paided off gambling debts, lots of hard money loans with cars as collateral to keep people in their homes. Broker a deal for one of "the whos" bentleys. Had a few movie cars come through the doors. 

Remeber I make money on the buy, if its unde market by 40% I will take it and sell it. Except kit cars, I don;t do those anymore unless they have SB100 registration. 

Last 356 I took in I had for a grand total of like 1 week, 85 year old women who the hell knows how she got my number. Had a crooked contractor put a lein on her house. Came down in cash to pay off the sherrif a few hours before they auctioned the house. I still do it but its rare and only for old clients. 

Paid me back plus a few thousand for my trouble. 

In reply to wearymicrobe :

Are you related to this guy? I think so!

In reply to wearymicrobe :

"Broker a deal for one of The Who's Bentleys..."

Was it Roger's white convertible? His in-laws used to live down the road and I used to see him driving it around every once in a while. 

came for the watch talk, stayed for the clit-ring diamond stories

Woody (Forum Supportum) said:

In reply to wearymicrobe :

"Broker a deal for one of The Who's Bentleys..."

Was it Roger's white convertible? His in-laws used to live down the road and I used to see him driving it around every once in a while. 

Pete Townsends flying spur. I actually have his email address somewhere in my Gmail account or at least one someone who was helping him sell it. 
 

Back to watches. So someone mentioned smaller brands. Yes there are deals to be had and yes you can find them used for very little but they do not appreciate like rare cars. A standard Patek will hold its value a lot better because the watch collector who wants that rare watch knows he can just sit there and let you drop your price. He is the only one who wants it and they all know each other. 
 

for example my favorite watch on the world is the Martin Braun Eos. I want to say they had a msrp around 45k 10 years ago. We are talking one of the best living watchmakers in my opinion. I can get one used for 5-8k depending on the case and condition. It is my favorite watch and maker, but I still wear a Rolex every day. Had six Rolex's that I bought for myself, used and new, honestly I do it because I can wear them everyday and get them serviced. They are more robust then just about anything else you can find in the mechanical space. 

Can I buy a Eos. Of course. Can I wear a Eos everyday same answer. But if I scratched it or dented the case or had it polished too many times it would sting due to the rarity. 
I mean look at it, it tracks the sunrise and sunset, and has a date and hack. It's perfect. But I don't want it to be a closest queen. 

Now my grail watch from Rolex is the Daytona beach editions. They are so crazy and still a Daytona. I missed the boat on these. I could have picked them up for a song a while back and now they are big money. I think I looked at one around 22k USD. They are asking 100k plus now. If I bought one to flip I would have had it for 6 months and sold it for maybe 2-3K more then I bought it for. Putting it in a safe never occured to me. 

But they will dip again soon. I also turned down a new SS Daytona about six years ago with the black face from a dealer at around 11k when I bought my wife's. And that stings too. But I like that we have a matching set in the gears and flowers faces which are very rare. Especially in pink. 
 

If you take anything from my rambling. Buy what you want, buy it used if you can and enjoy it. Its not an investment unless you inteand to flip watches. Put the money into a Vanguard account and let it sit and it will make more money for you in the long run. 

I'm a big fan of Tudor watches.

They're sort of Rolex's entry level but they have some nice stuff and it holds it's value.

Sort of like Cadillac vs Oldsmobile. 

I have a '63 Tudor Sub tropic face, I've had it serviced a few times, it's a great watch. I've never had the correct bracelet for it so it's on a black and silver NATO strap (007 style).

Tudor's new lineup is great and the Black Bay looks fantastic. 

Wife unit used to work in a pawn shop. A lady came in and sold her 10c diamond ring because nobody believed her that it was real.

The stone was pretty ugly. A princess cut with a yellow tinge. Looked like a picnic table.

The stone was pretty ugly. A princess cut with a yellow tinge. Looked like a picnic table.

Which is why nobody bought it, three C's and all that. Sorry about all the replies stuck at home tonight as the wife has book club. 

My buddy invests in watches. He swears they appreciate faster than any other asset and they are easy to get cheap because people just want to offload them and $1000 for a watch is nuts, even if that watch originally sold for $20k. 

I just wonder if eventually nobdoy will have any interest in spending that kind of money on a watch. I don't know many kids aspiring to own a Rolex. 

Kids seem to aspire to own the tacky watches from sevenfriday.

At least one of our detailers did.

In reply to pheller :

Expensive watches are still aspirational in hip hop, and instagram has brought younger customers to watch companies. Check out the hype that was for the Omega Swatch collaboration.

Some day I am gonna get a basic vanilla IWC flieger. It's just about perfect...