When is it time to panic

In reply to preach :

That's this week. It'll be different next week. 

bobzilla said:

In reply to preach :

That's this week. It'll be different next week. 

It might be different next week. We really don't know - as we find out more information, we use the best of what is available to make decisions. 

mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

bobzilla said:

In reply to preach :

That's this week. It'll be different next week. 

It might be different next week. We really don't know - as we find out more information, we use the best of what is available to make decisions. 

Which is what I said. Information on this changes faster than a fat man changes shirts in the summer working outside. Sources aren't really concerned about accuracy either so that leads to things changing again. 

So like I said, that is this week. Next week'll be different. 

Strangely, and much to my and I am sure Bobzilla frustration, there is not a lot of info on the length anti-bodies last!  Seems like something we would REALLY want to know.  

It's seems pretty likely there IS a longer term anti-body effect, but it also appears that is not universal, just from the fact that catching it twice is very rare (or properly said, very few example of).

The only study I know of was pretty small:

But one recent study out of China, published in the journal Nature Medicine, suggests that the protective proteins may not stick around for long. The researchers concluded that antibody levels “start to decrease within two to three months” in people who recovered from a SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially for those who never developed symptoms.

03Panther said:

being told that I'm obviously not as smart as all the people (in the medical field) that post statistics ( we all know about statistics) on here.

The stats are what they are and I think some people are leery of them for one of the following three reasons:

1.  An unqualified person did the analysis and as a result, an invalid method (too small of sample size, parametric test applied to non-normal data, etc.) was used.

2.  A shyster cherry picked the data to support his / her forgone conclusion.

3.  The recipient of the analysis expects too much.  Uncertainty is always present when drawing inferences (inferring the percent of the population that has COVID-19 based on a sampling).  Statistical analysis (no matter how appropriate and sophisticated) doesn't eliminate uncertainty, it only gains control over it by making allowances.  No competent statistician will ever say for example, 8% of the U.S. population has or has had COVID-19, they'll say there's a 95% chance that something between 6% and 10% of the U.S. population has or has had COVID-19.  That's it, that's as far as the math can take us and the recipients need to appreciate that.

Said differently, what alternative method would we use...wild a$$ guessing, going with whatever the most persuasive person says.

Said differently again, the fantastic levels of reliability we enjoy today (commercial airlines only killing about 1 in 2,000,000 passengers despite routinely spanning the country at 550 knots, 35,000 feet, 3.46 psi outside air pressure, with turbines spinning at 120,000 rpm's) are only possible due to the capabilities of statistical analysis.  You get home in one piece from a trip in your car, thank statisticians who contributed to the road design, driver training and monitoring, automotive design, chemical engineering of the fuel, etc, etc, etc.

Bottom line, without statisticians, the world would be waaaaay more berked up than it is.   

Lastly, I hope I've never given you or anyone else the impression I didn't think they were smart.  I spend more time teaching statistics than applying them (215 engineers went through my eight day class on statistics last year alone).

I've had wicked smart engineers (one MIT grad in particular comes to mind) that have struggled with stats because they can be so counterintuitive and esoteric. 

This could be not-good for Florida residents:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-florida/dozens-of-florida-hospitals-out-of-available-icu-beds-state-data-shows-idUSKBN2482IS

More than four dozen hospitals in Florida reported that their intensive care units (ICUs) have reached full capacity on Tuesday as COVID-19 cases surge in the state and throughout the country.

Ohio is going to a mask in public spaces law effective tomorrow evening for some counties.

I read the twitter thread.  Lotta snowflakes complaining and saying they are going to sue.

You're perfectly free to stay home, you know...

RX Reven' said:

03Panther said:

being told that I'm obviously not as smart as all the people (in the medical field) that post statistics ( we all know about statistics) on here.

The stats are what they are and I think some people are leery of them for one of the following three reasons:

1.  An unqualified person did the analysis and as a result, an invalid method (too small of sample size, parametric test applied to non-normal data, etc.) was used.

2.  A shyster cherry picked the data to support his / her forgone conclusion.

3.  The recipient of the analysis expects too much.  Uncertainty is always present when drawing inferences (inferring the percent of the population that has COVID-19 based on a sampling).  Statistical analysis (no matter how appropriate and sophisticated) doesn't eliminate uncertainty, it only gains control over it by making allowances.  No competent statistician will ever say for example, 8% of the U.S. population has or has had COVID-19, they'll say there's a 95% chance that something between 6% and 10% of the U.S. population has or has had COVID-19.  That's it, that's as far as the math can take us and the recipients need to appreciate that.

Said differently, what alternative method would we use...wild a$$ guessing, going with whatever the most persuasive person says.

Said differently again, the fantastic levels of reliability we enjoy today (commercial airlines only killing about 1 in 2,000,000 passengers despite routinely spanning the country at 550 knots, 35,000 feet, 3.46 psi outside air pressure, with turbines spinning at 120,000 rpm's) are only possible due to the capabilities of statistical analysis.  You get home in one piece from a trip in your car, thank statisticians who contributed to the road design, driver training and monitoring, automotive design, chemical engineering of the fuel, etc, etc, etc.

Bottom line, without statisticians, the world would be waaaaay more berked up than it is.   

Lastly, I hope I've never given you or anyone else the impression I didn't think they were smart.  I spend more time teaching statistics than applying them (215 engineers went through my eight day class on statistics last year alone).

I've had wicked smart engineers (one MIT grad in particular comes to mind) that have struggled with stats because they can be so counterintuitive and esoteric. 

Tell me more about this 8 day class on statistics... Is it open to the public?

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Ohio is going to a mask in public spaces law effective tomorrow evening for some counties.

 

I read the twitter thread.  Lotta snowflakes complaining and saying they are going to sue.

 

You're perfectly free to stay home, you know...

except those that have to go to work. And have been for months. Barn door folks. This attitude applies to those that are afraid of a ~.2-.4% chance of dying from it. I really got to say this attitude is REALLY pissing me off. So instead of shutting down the 99.6-99.8% of the population that wont die, why don't we shut down those at risk instead? Seems like it would do the economy and mental well being of our society a hell of a lot more good than the BS we're doing now. 

And with that, I'm done. There is good conversation in here and there are shiny happy people. I can say that because I am an shiny happy person and I know what they look like.

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

"You've got mail...beeeeep"

bobzilla said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Ohio is going to a mask in public spaces law effective tomorrow evening for some counties.

 

I read the twitter thread.  Lotta snowflakes complaining and saying they are going to sue.

 

You're perfectly free to stay home, you know...

except those that have to go to work. And have been for months. Barn door folks. This attitude applies to those that are afraid of a ~.2-.4% chance of dying from it. I really got to say this attitude is REALLY pissing me off. So instead of shutting down the 99.6-99.8% of the population that wont die, why don't we shut down those at risk instead? Seems like it would do the economy and mental well being of our society a hell of a lot more good than the BS we're doing now. 

And with that, I'm done. There is good conversation in here and there are shiny happy people. I can say that because I am an shiny happy person and I know what they look like.

(In case you're still here)

Wearing masks help the economy, health of the nation, and gets us back to "normal" sooner. Why is the mandate/law of a mask unjust or something to get up in arms about? 

I understand the "You're welcome to stay home" line upsets you. It upsets me too, from the other side. It applies to both arguments, which means, in my opinion, that it isn't worth typing/saying.

Maybe this will help. 

In reply to RX Reven' :

Or maybe, just maybe, the chorus of individuals who work in the health care field, have had COVID-19 themselves, have had family members die of COVID-19, and/or work in science fields might be the correct ones. Just a possibility.

That was someones statement to me like what I was referring to. In response to me asking why I should wear a face covering when I am "IN PUBLIC" but not having to be up close to other people. I lumped it, and others similar, in with the statistics folks in general, and I should have kept them separate.

Because of the tendency of 1,2 and 3, the results are very little difference than wild azz guesses, unfortunate. I'm not saying statistics don't have their places... the industry you mention are good examples. But the dont make immutable facts.

Mostly, when I make a trip in a car, I thank my Dad, for teaching me how important situational awareness and what is called defensive driving. Has way more to do with my safety than statistics. But I know, that wasnt really your point, and I'm not disagreeing in that.

So let me ask a legitimate question. Since "in public" means something totally different in highly populated areas, and places that have room for good "social distancing,"  are the current and coming mandates going to address that difference, or allow a blanket statement of "in public" ?

"In public" starts outside of my yard. I live on a public road. If I go for a 2 mile walk on my road (i'm to fat to run) it's better than 80% I'd not see another person. If I did, we'd never need to be within 20 - 30 feet of each other. I state that me wearing a face covering, would be as idiotic as wearing one while in my car, alone. Except everyone only "says" "in public" 

Hi 03Panther,

It's a given that many mistakes will be made regarding COVID-19 because...

• We're starting from scratch in terms of knowledge "novel" is just a euphemism for "we're clueless".
• We're dealing with human beings which throws us into a quagmire of ethical constraints.

I don't know what led up to the comment you shared above but yes, it clearly has a condescending tone.

I'm terrible at a lot of things (a poor performing third grader could easily smoke me on a spelling test) but math is my thing and I like helping people improve their skills - sounds like you don't have a problem with me specifically; cool.

Take care,

Brett 

All of the mask orders define when/where to wear them, but its mostly common sense.  What most people mean: if you are going inside a building open to the public, or if you are near others.  

You can read executive orders to see the exact wording rather than rely on what others are saying.  For example (NC):  https://files.nc.gov/governor/documents/files/EO147-Phase-2-Extension.pdf

Here's NC info:

Where do I have to wear a mask?

• Retail stores.
• Restaurants. You may take off your mask while sitting at your table.
• Personal care (salons, tattoo parlors, etc.) If you’re receiving a facial treatment of some sort, you may take off the mask.
• Child care facilities, day camps, and overnight camps.
• State government buildings.
• In transportation. Public or private transportation regulated by the State of North Carolina, as well as people in airports, bus, train stations and stops must wear face coverings. This does not apply to those traveling alone with household members or friends in their personal vehicles.
• Any place where social distancing is difficult. This includes manufacturing settings, construction sites, farms or other agricultural settings.
• Inside meat or poultry processing plants.
• Long-term and health care facilities.

What are the exceptions?

The governor’s executive order does not require face masks for an employee, customer, or patron who:

• Has a medical or behavioral condition or disability.
• Those under 11-years-old.
• Someone who is actively eating or drinking.
• Someone who is exercising.
• While trying to communicate with someone who is hearing impaired and needs the mouth to be visible.
• If you’re working from home or in a vehicle.
• If you’re temporarily removing your mask for identification purposes.
• Would be at risk for wearing a face covering, as determined by local, state or federal regulations or workplace safety guidelines.
• If the masks makes is difficult to operate equipment or a vehicle.
• A child whose guardian is unable to put the mask safely on the child’s face

In reply to ProDarwin :

Thank you for posting that. I would imagine NC's is fairly common. All of those would be extremely reasonable in Cary/tri-citys, Charlotte, Greensboro etc. Not as much is some of the more rural areas. Although rural areas are on the upswing now, probably because common sense ain't all that common.

There is a HUGE difference between that, and "in public." But I will admit is easier to say. But, at least in this backwoods hick's experiences, keeping my distance is still adequate, even when in the grocery store. I hope they don't make a law against that just because B'ham can't distance when out.

RX Reven' said:

Hi 03Panther,

It's a given that many mistakes will be made regarding COVID-19 because...

• We're starting from scratch in terms of knowledge "novel" is just a euphemism for "we're clueless".
• We're dealing with human beings which throws us into a quagmire of ethical constraints.

I don't know what led up to the comment you shared above but yes, it clearly has a condescending tone.

I'm terrible at a lot of things (a poor performing third grader could easily smoke me on a spelling test) but math is my thing and I like helping people improve their skills - sounds like you don't have a problem with me specifically; cool.

Take care,

Brett 

I actually don't have a problem with anyone here; I understand its a stressful time for a lot. And, as slow as my typing is, it still is faster than my brain sometimes! True for most of us, and I only referenced that one as an example. Not on you, and like I said, I should have separated my 2 statements, anyway

I learn from open calm communications!

Oh, btw, my Dad was a electrical theroy instructor, and I've taught a few small classes in industry as well; Thanks for Teaching!!!

03Panther said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

Thank you for posting that. I would imagine NC's is fairly common. All of those would be extremely reasonable in Cary/tri-citys, Charlotte, Greensboro etc.

I would think that almost all of those things exist in rural towns as much as they do in big cities.  You do have grocery stores, restaurants, and retail establishments, right?  Note that the grocery store is basically the #1 most commonly referenced place by people gauging mask compliance or complaining about others not wearing masks, and they are required there (in NC anyway) whether or not you can maintain social distancing.

Yes, I agree "Public" is just easier to say.  Maybe they should have come up with a creative acronym like REAICPTO (Retail Establishments And In Close Proximity To Others).

As a bit of comparison, and frankly what causes issue with many people, here is what CA current mandatory masks rule says about when a mask is Required when outside:

• While outdoors in public spaces when maintaining a physical distance of six feet from persons who are not members of the same household or residence is not feasible

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-18/this-is-where-you-now-must-wear-a-mask-in-california-under-new-rules
 

As you can see, it is WILDLY generalized, and of course would mean Panther would be required to wear a mask while walking down his deserted road.  I am not saying anyone would realistically consider that an issue, but technically not allowed.

This is the sort of rule that creates problems since most people can see how it is absurd in many situations and are very likely to ignore it.  If you make bad rules / laws, you loose public trust.

No, he wouldn't need to... he can maintain a physical distance from people who are not from his household/residence.

In reply to aircooled :

 * While outdoors in public spaces when maintaining a physical distance of six feet from persons who are not members of the same household or residence is not feasible. 

I did not read all of CA's rules. But the sentience in the box, while written poorly, I think states that as long as I can maintain 6 feet distance I don't need a mask. I think my blue highlights are correct?

If I am reading that correctly, it supports my position that the actual mandates do not state what is being said and promoted, even on here.

ProDarwin said:

I would think that almost all of those things exist in rural towns as much as they do in big cities.  You do have grocery stores, restaurants, and retail establishments, right?  Note that the grocery store is basically the #1 most commonly referenced place by people gauging mask compliance or complaining about others not wearing masks, and they are required there (in NC anyway) whether or not you can maintain social distancing.

Yes, I agree "Public" is just easier to say.  Maybe they should have come up with a creative acronym like REAICPTO (Retail Establishments And In Close Proximity To Others).

NOOOO!!! Please no complicated acronyms! I promise not to EVER complain again!  LOL!

But seriously, The retail establishments I go in, Lowes, large chain grocers, ect., have enough room to maintain distance, If you don't go when very crowded. In rural areas, that's achievable. I understand its not in large population areas.

A friend in Fuquay ( just below the tri-cities for other readers) - medium busy town - tried to order some hardware from box store for pickup. With all the people being unsafe in that line, where the returns are also, he'd have been able to go in and get what he needed while maintaining distance.

The registers all have plastic up for droplet protection now. With a little bit of extra care, I feel safe enough. The people i see in these places that dont get it are easy to slow down and avoid. Takes longer and can be frustraiting, but I remind myself "I ain't in no hurry!"

03Panther said:

In reply to aircooled :

 * While outdoors in public spaces when maintaining a physical distance of six feet from persons who are not members of the same household or residence is not feasible. 

I did not read all of CA's rules. But the sentience in the box, while written poorly, I think states that as long as I can maintain 6 feet distance I don't need a mask. I think my blue highlights are correct?

Outdoors, yes.  Absolutely you can walk through a park or down the street with no need for a mask.

Indoors they are required whether or not you can maintain the distance.

03Panther said:

But seriously, The retail establishments I go in, Lowes, large chain grocers, ect., have enough room to maintain distance, If you don't go when very crowded. In rural areas, that's achievable. I understand its not in large population areas.

I think the reason they are still mandated in these conditions is that the droplets linger in the air for quite a while in indoor environments, and it is quite common for others to pass through the air you just exhaled shortly after you were there.  Plus, without a mask, when you exhale the droplets from your breath get on things that others touch.

Think about how many people are breathing all over the self checkout, and think about how many droplets remain floating in the air immediately surrounding it.

 ProDarwin :

Outdoors, yes.  Absolutely you can walk through a park or down the street with no need for a mask.

So I'm not actually a uncaring, horrible person for not wearing one in public without interaction with other people. Some people didn't believe me.