Big auction story for 2010?

Looking back, the six-figure big Healeys had to be among the big auction stories for 2009. So, any predictions as to what car will be next to see values peak? (Although don't forget that sometimes a climb is quickly followed by a fall.)

Miata?

snicker

Just kidding....

Alfa GTAs & GTVs, Porsche 914-6s, BMW 2002Tii, Bugeyes, TR6s, Fulvias, & Fiat Dinos.

To me, the cars that go up most are the ones that were loved when new, have a huge following today and/or are particularly unique with a good pedigree. People have always loved the Alfas, the 2002Tii, the Bugeyes, the TR6s and the Fulvias.

The controversial ones on my list (IMO) are the 914-6 and the Fiat Dino. Both are bastard children. The 914-6 has a huge following and the driving dynamics are awesome. The Fiat Dino has that Ferrari motor, and those always draw speculation.

Hmm, I say auctions, smauctions. Maybe the real question should be: is the auction scene really indicative of the market? Is that really what sets the bar? I don’t think so. A couple years ago we saw a TR4 run up to ninety-something thousand dollars. I can’t remember if it sold or not but that’s not the point. Even if it didn’t sell at that price point it means it would have sold at eighty-something thou. We all know that that’s absurd. Ludicrous. So is a six-figure Healey. I compare the big-time auctions to the nonsense that goes on in the lives of Hollywood stars and the attention that gets in the media. It’s not real life, only “entertainment.” All the car mags I personally subscribe to now devote multiple pages each month to recent transactions and/or have editorial columns about the auction scene. Sorry Andy, but I skip over those pages because it’s all irrelevant to me. Bah, humbug…

Now, having made my previous rant and having had a few minutes to regain my composure, I can concede that the small regional auctions, the ones that don’t get the big media coverage, are maybe a slightly more reasonable barometer. I attended one of Keith McCormick’s auctions in Palm Springs, CA a few years ago and the prices were somewhat more sensible. Still quite a bit higher than you’d see on Craigslist, but megathousands lower than B-J or some of the other big-time guys with all the media attention and the mega-millionaire prospective buyers vying for attention on cable TV.

I skip the auction pages in car magazines also. The big car auctions seem to attract buyers who have more money than sense.

Dave

I agree that one time record price sales do not make the market but when you have a lot of cars sold for high prices, think $90,000 and up E-Type prices, then they do make the market. The same is true for Healey 3000 and Porsche 356 prices. The auction market made these cars increase significantly in value. What happens is that you set a price precedent when you have a number of high dollar sales.

For future cars, I would look at the Porsche 928 and the R107 Mercedes SL's. Both have been slowly climbing in value lately.

Another is the 240Z. I have always liked these cars and can see them appreciating in the future.

For British cars I would pick the TR3. these cars are simply too cheap right now. They are eligible for a great many events, from tours to vintage racing, and are fun to drive and look great too.

I would not say that TR3s are "too cheap right now." $15-20K on the private market and $20-30K from a reputable classics dealer for a good TR3 is not cheap. But that seems to be the going price these days. That confirms to me there's a different mentality in the auction market that's unrealistic. Maybe an owner or speculator wants to see the price of his/her classic pumped up through the high stakes auction process. But the average prospective buyer certainly doesn't.

I can't remember the last TR3 I saw sell for $30,000. In fact I have not seen one sell for that even at auction. I tend to see the TR3 still at $14,000-20,000 when they are sold except for a few weird auction prices, for instance the 1958 TR3a at RM that sold for $30,000 which is a very strong price for a TR3. It still seems cheap when you think about Healey 3000's at more than $70,000 and up.

I hate to break it to you, but many people buying from big auctions such as Gooding and Company, Russo and Steele, Bonhams and RM are, for the most part, end users who are showing, touring and driving their purchases and not buying them to flip in a year. At one time that was the case but it has been quite a few years since speculators made up the auction market.

Of course there are some ridiculous prices at auction but there are just as many reasonable ones. When most cars sell for big money at auction it is often because they are perfect examples with no discernible paint flaws, perfect chrome and perfect mechanically.

I did my tour of the Arizona auctions and pointed this out to subscribers. Most had never seen examples of the cars they saw in such nice condition. You need to see the cars in person to judge how the average show winner and a Pebble Beach/Amelia Island example measures up.

That being said, we are hosting the Arizona action tour again this January and any and all are welcome up until we run out of space and there is no charge for it.

I know it can be a drag to see cars we all once owned priced beyond ones ability to afford them. Case in point is my Aston DBS that I bought for $22,000 sold for $30,000 18 months later that just sold again for $50,000. This is just what happens. Sometimes the market will decrease a bit but it seems as if this market is pretty stable. At the end of the day it is a supply and demand equation that sometimes really sucks, especially since I still want a Aston Martin DB6, and with them now selling for over $100,000, are way past my threshold for economic pain. They were $65,000 18 months ago.

So I stand behind my TR3 comment. I really like the TR3 and feel it has a great future as a collectible sports car.