What does this say about the hobby...?

aircooled wrote: I think the MG's and such are trapped in a bad convergence. A big aspect of their historic appeal is that of a small cheap sports car. But now, there is a car that was manufactured in large numbers, that is almost as small, more sporty, far more modern and is dropping into the same price range: The Miata.

Yes and no. For folks who want a car they can drive every day - absolutely. I told a coworker as much 15 years ago when he was looking for a fun convertible to commute in. He initially was thinking an MG or a Fiat Spider until I recommended a Miata. He bought a 2 year old Miata (this was in '99).

But there will also be folks who like the character of Triumphs and MG's. My ex- for example. To her, a Miata doesn't exist, no matter how superior the car may be.

I think that what is comming for the classic market is a perfect storm:

Fist concern is that classic British car hobby is winding down is because the cars are less and less able to be used as regular cars; they are just too old and delicate to cope with today's traffic. Combine this with an age group that is less tolerant of roadside repairs than they were 25 years ago and you can see where the "For Sale" market is going to exceed the "WTB" market in the next few years.

The second concern is with a large number of classic car owners facing retirement, they need to cash out these so called "investments" while they still have any value. If there is a perception that values are going to diminish, the market will flood.

The third item to factor in is that kids nowadays do not have the disposable income that our generation did. Our economy has been built on the assumption that each new generation will be more affluent than the last. That has come to an end. The trend is evident in a decline in kids getting a driver's license, forget buying old cars as toys.

By the way, does anyone want to buy an MGB GT?

Perhaps. Gen-Xers like myself are still reasonably car-crazy and as we continue to age it's likely/hopeful we'll get more disposable income and thus fill the gap left by our aging parents - especially if prices dip a bit. Millennials, however... those kids look like a tough sell. So many of them just aren't into cars. There are a few of them out there (and I'm sure a few will chime in after I post this), but they didn't grow up with cheap muscle cars and gas back in the 80's, so their perspective is different. The possible collector-car for them? The old Volvo 240 (only half joking here). In 20 years or so, they'll start getting nostalgic themselves and look to popular cars of the "hipster era" of which the 240 is the king.

I think they'll come around. I didn't really care about real cars in high school beyond the typical exotic stuff teens drool over. In early college it was the then new to the USA WRXs and STIs. In late college it started to shift towards the older stuff and building a Locost (extension of FSAE). After college I bought an STI and built the Locost. The Locost is gone, still have the STI, and my interests have shifted again towards older British stuff.

I guess its automotive maturing?

I wonder if our generation (Millennials) will carry the torch from a "collector" standpoint. The car-crazy among us are obviously scouting out the best buys (drivers), but seems there is less of a focus on the lookers. If I'm spending my disposable income on a weekend toy, you better believe I am going to drive it (and don't want to worry about rock chips, scratches, etc.).

In reply to CobraSpdRH:

I think it's too early to know for sure. For the most part, your view is typical of collectors when at that age. The desire for "show-perfect" cars tends to develope as you get older and have more money to spend - not counting the ultra-rich guys who do drive their uber-rare cars, scratches be damned. It helps when you have so much money the cost of a repaint on your '59 Ferrari GTO is pocket change.

I'm no economist, but I was looking at MGB's advertised for sale locally yesterday. There seem to be projects for $1-2k and (amateur) restored cars for $6-10k and not much in between. I do occasionally see what appear to be daily driven MG's and similar on the road, but nowhere near what there used to be. Not sure what conclusions to draw from any of that, but it sure doesn't look like I'm going to retire from the sale of my '68 BGT anytime soon.

On a positive note, I think I could build a daily-driver rubber-bumper B with a GM 2.8 V6 and a T5, (including hardtop) for challenge money based on current parts prices.

I will chime in here, I am 52 and my son is near 21 and we have some similar car taste but also some wide gaps. He wants a Noble or NSX but he says should he ever have the means he would buy a Lancia Stratos, Ferrari 410 Super America (one was at a local auto-x when he was 12) or a Ferarri P4. He also likes 240Zs and Triumph Spitfires. While I like all those cars as well, mine are Lancia 037, Bugatti T51, Porsche 356, pre-war dirt cars. Other than the 037 he thinks the others are ugly. When his friends come over they think the little Datsun 1200 is cool but he of course thinks it's lame but on the other hand he has said I can never sell the 63 Honda 90. On the subject of Japanese bikes; I was brought up on them, they were cheap, reliable and could be hopped up for half the money of their European & British counterparts. When I switched to cars the same applied, no way I could afford a 911, BMW 633 or Alfa. Now that I can afford those I see no reason to pay for the privilege when I can by the same level of performance for the a tenth of the price. I bring this up because I'm not the only car person who feels this way. As for investors of high end seven figure car, I know two of them and they drive thier cars, not as often as the mere six figure cars but they are still car guys and bought that Mercedes Gullwing for the same reason we would buy it if we could.........it's a cool old car. As for the original topic; I think it is near impossible to tell what will catch on, I am always intrigued and amused by the "buy one now" articles because I always feel like they have a certain lemming factor to them. The Muscle car bubble remains in the front of my mind and I am very skeptical of current 911 prices, note I will likely be wrong about this being a bubble but predicting the future is always sketchy. I'd hate to see any car or group of classic car fade away, I like them all even the ones I don't. My brother and I were polar opposites, he loved muscle cars where I couldn't stand them, they were slow (my Yamaha would suck the paint off them) bloated, handled poorly and I didn't like the styling but they have great presence and really do scream Americana. I'd hate to see them fade away. I still see teenagers fiddling with old cars so I am optimistic.

 Tom

It's all about the aps today. I recently wrote about my buddy whose son refused to get a license because there were no automatic equipped cars that his parents owned. One hand for the wheel, the other for the phone.

Read a recent new car ad or even recent car magazines. Rides, including motorcycles, seem to score better today based upon the number of cup holders or how easy it is to use the infotainment system than their capabilities to function as transportation! My barber is thrilled with his new BMW motorcycle. It has anti-lock brakes, heated hand grips,GPS,& a wi-fi hot spot. I asked him what the horsepower was and how large the gas tank was, he didn't know, or care! The computer tells him how many miles range he has left before he needs to stop.

We also have to realize traffic enforcement and traffic sprawl are terrible today compared to the past. When is the last time you left a STOP light without cars being strung out so far the traffic sensor thought the lane was empty and changed to red? Why? Because no one was looking out the windshield to see if the light was green yet! In fact the only time you ever see someone accelerate now days, is when the light is turning Yellow. Plus the newer "sports cars" are so fast, they're only used as designed on track days unless the owner has a death wish.

Unless more young people rediscover that the trip can be just as or more important than the destination & also teach that to their children, I don't see any changes in the future. When was the last time you saw a minivan on a scenic trip that didn't have videos playing so the kids didn't have to look out the windows and see the Grand Canyon, Niagara Falls, or whatever scenery was nearby?

In reply to Rupert:

I was talking about this with a friend of mine last night. Her son will be turning 16 in a few months and is rather apathetic about getting his license. He will because his mom wants/needs him to so she can occasionally sleep (she is a RN that works the night shift). But she said the high school culture is a lot different than when we graduated 25+ years ago. The kids don't go out like we did.

It'll be interesting to see if his view changes once he gets a taste of the real freedom a car can offer, but right now he doesn't see it that way.

I agree about inattentive drivers at stop lights. I've reduced the number of milli-seconds I'll wait before getting on the horn if the driver in front of me doesn't look like they're paying attention.

I can't find it to quote it, but I think the reason has been well stated here.

MGs are either cheap and cheery or restored. Restored cars don't get used parts. Cheap and cheery guys have their own parts stashes of "not completely worn out" parts. They're also relatively uncommon, so there's just not a high demand for stuff. So when a parts stash of not completely worn out parts hits the market, nobody's all that interested unless it has something special inside.

I suspect this is the case of almost every classic - or used car. The value of the parts collection is determined by the standout parts like a rare tach, not the pile of cylinder heads that only need a valve job and the brake drums that are only barely out of spec. MG, Jaguar, Miata, DSM - it's all going to be the same situation.

Keith Tanner wrote: I can't find it to quote it, but I think the reason has been well stated here. MGs are either cheap and cheery or restored. Restored cars don't get used parts. Cheap and cheery guys have their own parts stashes of "not completely worn out" parts. They're also relatively uncommon, so there's just not a high demand for stuff. So when a parts stash of not completely worn out parts hits the market, nobody's all that interested unless it has something special inside. I suspect this is the case of almost every classic - or used car. The value of the parts collection is determined by the standout parts like a rare tach, not the pile of cylinder heads that only need a valve job and the brake drums that are only barely out of spec. MG, Jaguar, Miata, DSM - it's all going to be the same situation.

I remember back in the early 1990s. I was working for a Mustang(Ford) restoration supply company. One of our KEY profit areas was keeping a "large"($3-4k) stash of cash available because there was always the chance for a big profit if a horde of parts became available....

In 3 years... we must have had a dozen scores... paying .10c on the dollar....

So there's a business model for someone who knows a particular car. Hoover up the big stashes, get rid of the junk for scrap and keep the gems.

In reply to Rupert:

America is becoming less of a car culture. People are driving less, commute times and sprawl are down, mass transit is up, highway fatalities are down, motorcycle ridership is way up, bit by bit cars are requiring less engagement from the driver and will become driver optional soon enough. Many young adults would just as soon bike or skateboard to their destination, or rent a zipcar when they really need one. None of this is really a bad thing, it's just generational change. The number of people interested in "old" cars is declining. The wave is long gone for British cars and the fascination with muscle cars will pass soon enough. But at the same time people are much better connected to each other and specialist suppliers/markets serving their hobby. The future for car culture is the great ecumenical Cars and Coffee where you see a little bit of everything and every one is cool with whatever ride you are proud of. Soon enough we will be admiring custom neighborhood electric vehicles at these events. There will always be a place for the traditional vintage cars, they will just be mixed into a greater variety of means of transportation than in the past. Life would be boring indeed if things never changed.

In reply to Keith Tanner:

I knew a guy back in the 70's that did just that for a living. He had a Model A pickup and pulled a trailer made from another Model A pickup. He'd go from small town to small town all over the country and stop in all the old garages, hardware stores, service stations, etc. While there he'd start sharing old car stories with the owners & buy up anything old that said Ford or was Model A or Model T related. He got many great deals on original parts they had stored away and forgotten about till he rolled up in his Model A. Everyone he bought from was thrilled to sell to a "real enthusiast" and often sold him the parts at the price on old price tags from the 30's etc. He sometimes even got calls from them later when they found other items after he had left. Of course he bought them too.

When at home in California he always drove a Cadillac & hid his A-stuff away. He went to a few Model A meets and sold his barn finds at full current retail just to keep his name out there. But most was sold wholesale to big name distributors.

I have a friend that lived in Columbus, OH that did this very thing. He'd buy the cheapest cars he could find and part them out. Mostly MG's. He was retired, so he used the income to cover his vintage racing expenses.

He always said the hardest part of selling the parts was what to ask for them as there is no real solid base line to work from. So if he were selling a windscreen for $50, I wouldn't go for it, but there was another person who thought it was the best deal in the world!

Keith Tanner wrote: So there's a business model for someone who knows a particular car. Hoover up the big stashes, get rid of the junk for scrap and keep the gems.

I'm a Gen-Xer too, have been trying to learn to work on cars for twenty years. Always wanted to road race, but never could afford the price tag.

Currently building what will hopefully be a vintage race car- budget and time permitting!

Ian F wrote: Perhaps. Gen-Xers like myself are still reasonably car-crazy and as we continue to age it's likely/hopeful we'll get more disposable income and thus fill the gap left by our aging parents - especially if prices dip a bit. Millennials, however... those kids look like a tough sell. So many of them just aren't into cars. There are a few of them out there (and I'm sure a few will chime in after I post this), but they didn't grow up with cheap muscle cars and gas back in the 80's, so their perspective is different. The possible collector-car for them? The old Volvo 240 (only half joking here). In 20 years or so, they'll start getting nostalgic themselves and look to popular cars of the "hipster era" of which the 240 is the king.

The parts thing may also be supply/demand. MGs are common cars; it stands to figure that a lot of people have a pile of parts they'd like to get rid of. Couple that to the availability/convenience of new parts and it's not surprising the demand is low. I've got a pair of Ford FE V8 heads I've been trying to give away for years with no takers. They don't ever really go bad, so no one wants them.

As for cars, I have broad interests in all things old but limited garage space like most of us, so I have to buy what gives the most bang for the buck. I prefer driving over trophy collecting, so a perfect car sitting at a car show all day means little to me. Thus, I won't pay top dollar for a perfect example. Give me a driver or amateur restoration.

Other problem: since I like to drive them, I dismiss cars that can't deal with modern traffic and distance travel (most built before 1960) simply because I wouldn't use them enough to justify it in the garage. So I've had 20+ Fiats, 1960s cars and trucks, Austin Minis and so on. However, having experienced those I now have nothing older than 1987. Traded my 65 F100 for a 93 Lightning. Traded the LBC's and Fiats for a BMW E30. I've lusted over vintage Mustangs for years but will probably buy a S197 this year because I can drive it every day, year round and experience power, handling, braking and creature comforts while still smiling every time I look at it. Bonus for it being capable of the occasional track day or autocross.

I'd really like a Model T, 30s Packard or 50s chrome behemoth but can't really justify the cost or space when I think about how often I could actually use it. I still like Fiat 124's but wouldn't buy one over a Miata because I'd get so much more for my money. Maybe at my age (nearly 50) time is simply too valuable to not be able to have 'instant pleasure' from a car by just getting in and turning the key. When I'm 65 and have all the time in the world perhaps my view will change.

In reply to ddavidv:

I know what you mean. Part of me wants to dump the three LBC's and just get something modern (new MINI, M3, or similar). Even when they are working, I don't drive the Mini, GT6 or Spitfire as much as I'd like to - mainly because they are tiring to drive when my daily commute is over an hour each way. I try to use whichever one is running for occasional chore runs, but that happens maybe once a week at most.

My long-term restoration plan for my 1800ES is to sort of resto-mod it, but mainly with regards to the interior and such rather than all-out performance. A stock ES actually does OK in modern traffic, but I'm not so keen on the "classic car experience" of the interior.

ddavidv wrote: Other problem: since I like to drive them, I dismiss cars that can't deal with modern traffic and distance travel (most built before 1960) simply because I wouldn't use them enough to justify it in the garage. So I've had 20+ Fiats, 1960s cars and trucks, Austin Minis and so on. However, having experienced those I now have nothing older than 1987. Traded my 65 F100 for a 93 Lightning. Traded the LBC's and Fiats for a BMW E30. I've lusted over vintage Mustangs for years but will probably buy a S197 this year because I can drive it every day, year round and experience power, handling, braking and creature comforts while still smiling every time I look at it. Bonus for it being capable of the occasional track day or autocross. I'd really like a Model T, 30s Packard or 50s chrome behemoth but can't really justify the cost or space when I think about how often I could actually use it. I still like Fiat 124's but wouldn't buy one over a Miata because I'd get so much more for my money. Maybe at my age (nearly 50) time is simply too valuable to not be able to have 'instant pleasure' from a car by just getting in and turning the key. When I'm 65 and have all the time in the world perhaps my view will change.

My thoughts exactly. I start to see what classic I can get for a certain $ amount and then see how much more I can get in a newer, more reliable car and it makes it harder to justify the "classic toy" over the "depreciated but still a heck of a car toy". One thing that does keep me looking is my thought that the value of the classic will hold better than a Miata or S197, but who knows if I am right on that or not?

I do consider the depreciation thing. My last several classics I've pretty much broken even on (basically free ownership for several years) but I can pull that off because I only maintain and don't 'restore' them.

I will justify the S197 Mustang because it will be a daily driver, and is capable of that. As much as I'd love to drive a 1960s car every day I know how quickly the 'joy' of that experience will diminish. The seats suck, the brakes suck, the steering sucks...and if you want to upgrade to modern stuff it defeats the point of having the classic for me. Hence, the S197 shopping.

Resto-mod......... a BIG segment of the car hobby

the old MGs and Triumphs are not as easy to resto mod.... mostly because their development stopped in the mid 70s.....

For example... my 83 Corolla was pretty old in its original guise.... (80hp, carb equipped, zero to 60 in 10+ seconds, 1/4 mile in 18+, 35mpg highway-EPA rating) Now resto modded, it utilizes much newer, MUCH more advanced parts to allow it to be fully utilized (165hp, full EFI and ignition, zero to 60 in under 8 seconds, 1/4 mile in under 16, 32mpg highway-actual recorded mpg) and that doesn't even mention the entire braking system upgrade from solid rotor front disc, rear drum, to 4 wheel discs with front vented rotors. Nor does it mention the improved front suspension geometry, or the improved seating/interior upgrades

All of these things make my old Corolla, fully usable in a modern world......... the reason I don't always use it is there is no reliable parts sources for things like sheetmetal, weather stripping and light replacements....

I think that I missed the gist of the original question posed by the OP.

What all of this means for the hobby is really that there are very soon to be a TON of really nice cars coming up for REALLY nice prices if we can all just hold on for a while. It's already taking place with Corvettes and the like. Price drops like you can't believe, check Corvette prices in some of the poorer states like Rhode Island. Vettes are nearly free down there. Lesser cars like the MG and such are in the dirt. High end hot rods are half priced, gonna drop even more as the widows find that their husband's friends are in the same straights as they are.

If you're young enough with enough interest to keep in there, the cars will be coming looking for you soon, just have to decide on what you really want.

I was thinking about picking up an old TVR to restore, now I'm just saving and waiting for the perfect one to find me. Or maybe a rat rod, or a Vette, or an old Jag, or a Morgan, or a V8 powered MGBGT, or a . . . .

TeamEvil wrote: What all of this means for the hobby is really that there are very soon to be a TON of really nice cars coming up for REALLY nice prices if we can all just hold on for a while. It's already taking place with Corvettes and the like. Price drops like you can't believe, check Corvette prices in some of the poorer states like Rhode Island. Vettes are nearly free down there. Lesser cars like the MG and such are in the dirt. High end hot rods are half priced, gonna drop even more as the widows find that their husband's friends are in the same straights as they are. If you're young enough with enough interest to keep in there, the cars will be coming looking for you soon, just have to decide on what you really want.

As much as I hate to see a decline in the hobby, I hope you are right about prices coming down. Seems like for years the average working guy with a family has been priced out of things like mid-year Vettes, XKE's and Ferrari Dino's. Heck, even AH 3000's are getting ridiculous. Sure would be nice for those to get back to being attainable cars for those of us with limited means.

In response to TeamEvil and SEADave:

Yes, this thread has morphed into something more profound than NOHOME's original minor rant about the inability to sell some used MGB parts. And yes, TeamEvil, you're correct, nobody can sell Triumphs, MGs, AH Sprites, vintage Volvos, Sunbeam Alpines, TVRs, etc. in Rhode Island ... or Connecticut, or the rest of New England for that matter. I live in Little Rhody and watch CL regularly. Listings for these types of vehicles go on for weeks, only to disappear and reappear a few months later for a few G's lower in price. And the cycle goes on and on. It's not just the fact that RI and New England in general is "poor." I think it's pretty much the same everywhere because of the demographics of the potential buyers. The market is shrinking. But on the other hand, don't expect to find a cheap XKE, Big Healey, Ferrari or Maserati. They'll always hold value regardless of where they're being sold.