$5.00 a gallon, will trucks get cheaper?

I want to replace the 88 Silverado this year. Plan is for use as backup for the dailies, truck stuff, and eventually buy an enclosed trailer for the autocross car.  
 

My impression from following ads is that the SUV prices haven't been seeing the increase that truck prices have, so I've been considering a Suburban, Tahoe, Yukon, etc. Maybe a Sequoia or Nissan. 

I'd still rather have a crew cab pickup though. Anyone want to speculate about used truck prices moderating over the next few months? 
 

My cash max (cash is all we've done since the 2011 loss of my practice and bankruptcy) is $10,000, and I don't know if a $20,000 truck (borrowing another ten) would be possible due to the age of the vehicle. 

Replace the '88?  She's just getting warmed up!

Here's some old chatter about PenFed.  There has been one update.  They now will only loan on vehicles with less than 125k on the day the day the loan begins.   Still can be any model year and they will lend up to 125% of that vehicles "book price".

Pick up trucks seem to be immune from any reasoning related to gas prices.

I literally just posted this on my Facebook page right before I saw this thread...

I'm not sure that the "sub $10k" and "tow an enclosed trailer half decently" venn diagram circles overlapped very much even pre-covid.

Also for every person that buys a truck just to commute to work, there's at least one person who has an actual business or personal need for it and therefore fuel costs don't factor into the decision beyond doing the math on whether the hybrid model is worth it or not. So while not immune to the effects of rising fuel prices, they're always going to be the least effected of the larger vehicles.

From my local market I will say yes.

Stuff has dropped here, not quite so low as before but way better than before

dps214 said:

Also for every person that buys a truck just to commute to work, there's at least one person who has an actual business or personal need for it and therefore fuel costs don't factor into the decision beyond doing the math on whether the hybrid model is worth it or not. So while not immune to the effects of rising fuel prices, they're always going to be the least effected of the larger vehicles.

It also usually takes a while for gas prices to change buying habits.  Check back in six months.

Not to discount the point about sometimes you just need a truck because your job requires it.... but If I had a dollar for every pick up truck I have seen with a pristine , empty bed and 1 person in the cab driving through Atlanta I could OWN Atlanta.

itsarebuild said:

Not to discount the point about sometimes you just need a truck because your job requires it.... but If I had a dollar for every pick up truck I have seen with a pristine , empty bed and 1 person in the cab driving through Atlanta I could OWN Atlanta.

I mean, same story with "if I had a dollar for every Jeep Wrangler with pristine wheel wells"....lol

They probably get just as bad mileage, to boot. And they definitely don't tow things or haul things for the most part. 

I'm gonna say no. 

Nick Comstock said:

I'm gonna say no. 

You're probably right. Likely also need to bump the budget, too.

I remember the last time fuel prices spiked above four bucks (mainly because I had a suburban with a 42 gallon gas tank). 

Folks were looking for unicorns like geo metro and truck prices fell pretty significantly. With the microchip shortage it probably changes the calculus right now but I think we will see used trucks coming up for sale at lower prices soon. 

itsarebuild said:

Not to discount the point about sometimes you just need a truck because your job requires it.... but If I had a dollar for every pick up truck I have seen with a pristine , empty bed and 1 person in the cab driving through Atlanta I could OWN Atlanta.

I'm sure people think the same thing when they see me in town in my dually.  But unless they follow me around, they never see me with the 4000lb camper in the bed, or with the race trailer in tow, or hauling a load of crap to the dump.  And my bed is pristine, because I don't treat it like a dump truck... 

The truth is a lot of folks need a truck for the things they do when they're not commuting to work or driving to the grocery store, but owning a Prius and a truck doesn't usually pencil out to actually saving money if you have a normal commute distance.

I'm also going with NO. At the very least not anything that's newer and a good buy getting into your price range.

My reasoning is that it has little to do with fuel prices because as mentioned above a huge portion of the market has trucks because they use them. I mean I have 3 vehicles, race car, daily car, and the truck. Truck almost exclusively is used for towing, hauling, and plowing with the exception of that I just miss it and want to drive it some days. IMO the largest factor in the high prices of used trucks is the high prices of new trucks. I'm in a good place financially but I can't bring myself to spend $75K+ on a new truck. And with inflation its only going to higher. I bought my 04 F250 in 2011 for $19K with 112K miles....It now has 264K miles and is some how still worth (based on other trucks for sale I've seen) around $15K. Which doesn't make any sense to me at all. But pretty much if the entire running gear blew up tomorrow....I'd probably still be money ahead just fixing it than buying a new $75K truck....or more like $80K after inflation.

It's fine if you need a truck. It's fine if you just want a truck. But I think that people that do use their trucks tend to think that everyone is like them, and underestimate the number of people that really don't do much of any kind of work with their trucks.

There have been some market surveys that indicate 75% of truck owners tow once/yr or less. 70% go offroad once/yr or less. And around 1/3 of owners never put anything in the bed.

I'm not telling anybody what they should or should not drive, but I don't think arguments that tons of trucks go unused are too far off the mark either.

In around 12-18 months we're going to be in the market for a serious tow pig, and I was just thinking yesterday on how gas prices would affect this.  I may end up buying one sooner if the prices of used F250/350 diesels goes down enough to warrant the early purchase. Once diesel hits $6/gallon, I think we'll see truck prices drop.

In 2009-2010 when the bottom fell out on truck prices, I remember it happened pretty quickly when gas started going up, but I also dont remember having this weird build up right before and prices being crazy plus a shortage.

Most people that buy a truck dont need a truck, survey after survey has shown that, I dont care that people do buy them, im just saying that demand isnt constant and can fluctuate. Heck a bunch of the people being cited as "needing" a truck I have seen downsize in the last 10 years. A bunch of plumbers and electricians near me have moved from big vans and trucks to the little car/van things. People have short memories and cite "people need trucks" so prices wont fall, thats the same thing people said the last time prices plummeted.

My guess is trucks will go down, but I wouldnt be surprised if they dont because of all the other weird variables leading up to this. A bunch of those people who paid inflated prices are going to have a hard time getting out, plus there is still a shortage.

Trucks here probably won't drop.  What will drop will be hoopty Sequoias and Suburbans with high mileages.  

In reply to Opti :

Luckily people that don't need a truck have a truck, so I can ask to borrow it. 

In reply to trigun7469 :

you can borrow mine

It's going to be difficult to isolate the gas price and chip shortage variables near-term.

Also on the NPR business report last night they said Americans have $3 trillion in additional savings that they wouldn't have had without the pandemic-related decline in spending and associated stimuli.

Last time gas was $4 a gallon there were $500 Chevy Suburbans for sale in my neighborhood. One of those would make a great tow pig/dog park runner, even an old high mileage one.

I'm looking.

My Canyon has 16K on it after three years of ownership. It doesn't get a lot of use and 99% of the use it has got wasn't truck stuff anyway. I do use it for longer highway trips because it can hit 23-24 mpg on regular gas VS my MINI that gets 29-30 on 93 octane. It's about the same cost per mile for the two, or it was before this latest cost increase. I'll have to re-evaluate that now. It would actually be cheaper for me to rent a truck for the odd occasion when I really need a truck bed or towing capacity, but having it sitting in the driveway ,ready to go, is pretty convenient.

If you are asking will people sell the truck and get a 30-40mph car ,  I think they will have a problem buying a new or late model small car even before this because of chip shortage etc, 

At the other fuel shortages we always made $$$$ buying non running small cars , getting them running , fix the brake and lights and send them down the road....

not sure how well that would work these days.....

one of the problems with this "crisis " is we have no idea how long it will last or what else can happen.

Will they start Drive 55mph again ?

itsarebuild said:

Not to discount the point about sometimes you just need a truck because your job requires it.... but If I had a dollar for every pick up truck I have seen with a pristine , empty bed and 1 person in the cab driving through Atlanta I could OWN Atlanta.

Sometimes a bed is empty like when I go pick something up. Sometimes I just use my truck to commute. But no mini Van will pull my 28 ft SeaRay up the ramp at my lake.  Nor haul my enclosed race car trailer.