A return to high used-car prices/values?

I'm old enough to remember the stagflation years of the early 1980s....interest rates in the mid-teens, or higher. Inflation the same and layoff after layoff. I'll admit I'm worried, but I have no financial worries now, and I'll be sitting on my hands and just waiting it out. If you have money it can be the time to do some buying. Example, I bought my first home in 1983. Rates were high, but prices were dropping significantly and I only signed a 5 year mortgage, so it worked out fine in the end.

"A return to high used-car prices/values".  Are they not currently high?  Maybe my brain just cant cope with the new normal.  

I sold my Veloster to Carvana in 2021 for a little less than what I paid.  The same car for sale on Carvana today (with more miles) is what you'd have paid at the dealer.  Inflation outpacing depreciation is qualifies as "high used-car prices" in my book.



I've been searching for 3rd gen Mazda 3s.  They are 7-11 years old and still going for 15-20k.  New they were 17-25k.

In reply to ShawnG :

$25/week 500e lease

In reply to Steve_Jones :

Guess that shows you where my head is, I don't think it's an obscure car.  It's a popular VW SUV, that happens to be a diesel, and is basically a copy of the much more expensive Porsche Cayenne.  Suppose I'm too much of an enthusiast...

I just ran KBB.com private party values for our cars.  Our higher mileage cars have held fairly consistent over time, best example is our '17 Odyssey purchased in 8/2020 with 193k for $12k is still worth $8500 with 245K almost five years later.  Our '06 Rav4 with 245k is still hanging around $4500 (it was up to around $7k at peak pandemic pricing), but pre-pandemic it was worth about $4k in 2019 with around 220k.  Our '15 Forester (bare-bones base model) with 192k is actually worth about the same as when we bought it 7 months ago - $4700.  My wife's Pilot was purchased for $20k in 4/2019 with 52k on it, in 2021/2022/2023 it was worth about the same with 100k on it.  Recently it's taken a big hit, now it's worth just under $11k with 138k on it.  At nine years old, I'm sure it's fallen out of the sweet spot of "used but less than 6 years old", and a new body style came out. We've had decent luck buying first model years of a redesign that lasted for a while, so our cars don't necessarily look as old as they truly are.  Our '06 RAV4 looked the same as a 2012, our '05 Odyssey looked the same as a 2010, and our '16 Pilot looked the same as a 2023.

So based on my sample of older, high-mileage vehicles (the "essential" market) the used car market seems to be down a bit from the peak, but is still on the elevated side compared to historical values.

New car pricing for Hondas (what I know best) seems to be in-line with historical values.  Our local dealer has 11 Odysseys on the lot for sale - 10 are the high-level Touring model, and 1 is an EX-L (leather interior). For giggles, I looked at the monthly payment for the EX-L at $44k with $0 down and excellent credit.  With an interest rate of 7.64% (ouch!) the payment over 5 years is $922 a month.  Looks like I'll be living in the "essential" car buying world for a while longer 

https://canadianautodealer.ca/2025/03/used-vehicle-market-on-downward-trend-similar-to-prior-week/

In reply to dj06482 (Forum Supporter) :

As an aside your experience highlights the demise of the small car, in 2020 a new small car or an Odyssey for 20k might make a lot of people think hard.

docwyte said:

In reply to Steve_Jones :

Guess that shows you where my head is, I don't think it's an obscure car.  It's a popular VW SUV, that happens to be a diesel, and is basically a copy of the much more expensive Porsche Cayenne.  Suppose I'm too much of an enthusiast...

It's a European vehicle, which is perceived as high end and maintenance expensive.  People interested in buying high end cars will buy NEW high end cars, and people who buy maintenance expensive cars will lease, or trade in before the warranty expires.

This is most of why Euro cars historically have had crazy depreciation.  See also: the depreciation rates between identical Toyota and GM-badged versions built on the same assembly line.  That Corolla or Matrix has much higher resale value because it is perceived as being a better value than a Chevy or a Pontiac.

It sold yesterday afternoon.  Friend is checking out its replacement today, in LA.  This was the first VW SUV I've owned, the other SUV's were Toyota's, which sold pretty quickly, or Porsche's.  I suppose someone will go after a depreciated Porsche SUV far more than a VW one, unless it's a Tiguan...

Peabody said:

In reply to ShawnG :

$25/week 500e lease

That's insane. I read the whole thread, and later in the thread there's a link to a dealer offering a $42 biweekly lease on a 500e with zero down! That's $91/mo for a new EV. That's nuts.

https://www.murrayautogroup.ca/inventory/New-2024-FIAT-500e/

dculberson said:

Peabody said:

In reply to ShawnG :

$25/week 500e lease

That's insane. I read the whole thread, and later in the thread there's a link to a dealer offering a $42 biweekly lease on a 500e with zero down! That's $91/mo for a new EV. That's nuts.

https://www.murrayautogroup.ca/inventory/New-2024-FIAT-500e/

 

check out leasehackr for some great lease deals...  

In reply to docwyte :

I remember when off lease Cayenne Ss were selling for $20kish and people here (including me) were thinking... hmm... this can tow my trailer and it's a Porsche, how bad can it be?

Coniglio Rampante said:

Mr_Asa said:

<snip>

As a result, anyone that claims to know what is going on (including me) is just blowing smoke.

 

Probably the most true thing to be said.  If I had a dollar for every millionaire/billionaire pUnDiT on tv whose predictions were completely wrong, I'd be a wealthy man.  
 

Remember the Bear Stearns cheerleaders just days prior to its total collapse?

The problem though is that those guys are right 50% of the time.  You get to decide which 50.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

There are still deals but not as dramatic.  When you buy an older German car, you buy the owner more than the car, you need to buy one that's been maintained well and has the paperwork proving it.  That's why I always try to buy from a private party vs a dealer.  You also need to have the ability to do most the work on it yourself, otherwise you end up with 4-5 figure bills from the repair shop. 

Our Cayenne diesel has been really solid, with the exception of the emissions stuff.  Thankfully that all got fixed for free under warranty, but it's no longer under any warranty at all, so I'll see how much longer we keep it.  It's got 126k miles on it now, we've owned it since 18k miles.

In reply to A 401 CJ :

You're optimistic, it's likely closer to about 20% of the time

In reply to docwyte :

If you buy a from a dealer, you can get financing.  If you buy private party, you have to arrange that yourself.

My S60R was the most expensive single thing I've ever bought, at $3800.  It was clean and had an inch thick stack of records.  The only other one in a driving radius (as opposed to flying radius) was a used car lot that had one for $6000, and had three different brand tires and a complete Christmas tree on the dash.

The decision was made for me because the used car lot wouldn't finance me, but I was able to get a personal loan for the private party sale.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to docwyte :

If you buy a from a dealer, you can get financing.  If you buy private party, you have to arrange that yourself.

 

My S60R was the most expensive single thing I've ever bought, at $3800.  It was clean and had an inch thick stack of records.  The only other one in a driving radius (as opposed to flying radius) was a used car lot that had one for $6000, and had three different brand tires and a complete Christmas tree on the dash.

The decision was made for me because the used car lot wouldn't finance me, but I was able to get a personal loan for the private party sale.

thats not all that different than using a credit union to buy it from a dealership, getting your own financing isnt that hard and banks are lending way longer terms and older vehicles than ever before. well credits unions not banks but same thing 

their incentive is to use as much in house as possible and get you in the door and out the door with their vehicle that day. its the market of right now, like craigslist used to be but with brick and mortar. sorta

idk

We sold our 2012 GX460 with 208,000 miles to Carvana in late Jan.  $8,800. It had a palm sized clear coat spot missing on the hood, passenger rear door handle was broken and the tpms were not working. Easiest transaction in the world. I couldn't believe how simple- and the price felt more than fair.

We had already purchased a 2020 etron with 60k miles for $18,500. 
the mom mobiles hold value, niche vehicles can be touch and go. 

Used f150/250 prices this time last year are why I bought my Cayenne. It was a heck of a deal with 75k miles. Felt like a new car- and one that was originally 90k in 2017.