Chance of unemployment down the river; start preparing now, or wait for the bomb to drop?

EDIT: Can someone move this to Off-Topic? I meant to post it there.

I'm a tech support guy for a company that makes document handling equipment. One of our biggest customers is a major bank that has our machines in multiple cities. They have on-site service contracts with us to keep tech support on staff 24/7 due to the time-sensitive nature of their production.

Word is starting to go around that some changes are going to be made to the contract, which is up for renewal in September. They are (supposedly) talking about paring down the service contracts in favor of on-call emergency coverage instead in an attempt to save some money. Long story short, everyone is a little worried about losing their jobs in September. Were this to happen, my company would likely offer the more senior, experienced people - myself included - positions at another job site somewhere else in the country.

Complicating this is that I'm finally, four years late, getting close to graduating with my bachelor's degree. In the spring I will finally be done and will have no further obligation to Milwaukee, and believe me, I want to get the hell out.

But there's another complication. My job is pretty much in a dying industry. On the back of every envelope we send out there's an offer to save $10 by getting your statement online, etc. I see the paring down of the service contracts as a very little snowball getting tossed down a big, big hill, and I don't terribly enjoy the work either (though I am good enough at it to have lots of respect from the higher-ups). For my age I do make pretty good money though, so there's that.

Either way there is probably a 50/50 chance that my job in Milwaukee will dry up in September. Even if I wanted to up and leave to another job site, I am not just tied down by school but also a lease, a girlfriend, a garage full of cars and tools, etc etc. If I declined another position I would likely get a token severance but nothing major.

Even if my job doesn't dry up I would still be angling to leave in the long term, just because the writing's on the wall for the industry...maybe not immediately, but it's there. Not sure where else I'd be able to find something at ~$38,000 if I left, especially not having my degree quite yet, so it'd be back to square one.

Should I start thinking about unloading some toys? My ear is already to the ground regarding new employment but as everyone here surely knows it's rough out there in the wilderness right now...

From what I read in the paper, Deluxe Checking in Minnesota appears to be bucking the trend for your industry - they used to print zillions of checks for everyone, but now are finding other ways to make money. According to their website they have a number of job openings in the Twin Cities area: http://jobs.deluxe.com/ They also have a few openings in Des Plaines, IL but those appear to be mainly assembly work.

"Change" is just opportunity in progress. You sound restless.

I'd stay focused on your bigger dreams/education. Let the job do what it does. If it goes away, at least you get to ride unemployment for a bit... and from the sounds of it, odds are even with cutbacks you'd make the cut until you were ready to jump ship out of state anyway.

Finish your degree, then worry about what's coming next.

From personal experience it never hurts to start circling the wagons now. If you have CC or etc bills, see if you can pay them off. Unload any projects that may not get any lovin' for a long time (yeah I know how bad THAT one hurts, believe me. ). Put some $$ in savings or boost existing savings. If the ax doesn't fall in September, keep adding to your savings anyway.

My business can be VERY volatile so I keep my powder dry, if you know what I mean.

I would prepare in the sense of keeping your resume current, try to sock away a stash of cash to keep you going for several months, and try not to get entangled with any unnecessary debt. Then not burn any bridges and not jump ship unless you really want to.

Then again, I'd advise that in any situation... just more urgently in yours.

stuart in mn wrote: From what I read in the paper, Deluxe Checking in Minnesota appears to be bucking the trend for your industry - they used to print zillions of checks for everyone, but now are finding other ways to make money. According to their website they have a number of job openings in the Twin Cities area: http://jobs.deluxe.com/ They also have a few openings in Des Plaines, IL but those appear to be mainly assembly work.

I'm not sure if my company will be able to follow that same trend...they are banking on the success of a newer, faster machine that is finicky and expensive that nobody wants to buy and they don't really have anything else in the pipeline AFAIK.

I have also begun to see an alarming trend where upper management is willing to do absolutely anything the customer wants to keep the gravy train rolling, even if it means throwing guys on the ground like me under the bus. A lot of our guys are being hassled by the customer into giving up lunch breaks, stepping outside of their jobs to run production on the machines, etc. It's not like we aren't willing to go above and beyond when necessary as much as some customers assume we are just their slaves.

The messed up thing is that as soon as we start complaining about the treatment, the customer barks at our upper management, who comes in and reprimands/starts firing people for not doing the customer's bidding even though we are asked to do things totally outside of our contract. Then afterward customer management and our management will take a $1,000 night at the strip club to smooth everything over. I understand business is business but they are making a lot of employees very unhappy with this kind of thing. It's also pretty indicative that management is worried too, if I'm reading them right.

I am probably safer than most in my position and I tend to have a pretty good attitude and some moments of brilliance with our machines so both their management and our management really like me...but deep down I know I can't keep the poker face up forever.

Luckily all my CC's are always paid off monthly (always been very careful with them), my only debt is my student loans which are deferred right now anyway. I have a savings account which I try to keep four digits in for emergencies, and I own a BMW E46 that I paid $7k for and could probably sell for $9k (it'd hurt because it is EXACTLY how I'd order one but so it goes). I also have a small IRA growing and some investments tied up in mutual funds if I really got screwed but I try to pretend those don't exist.

IMO, keep your ear to the ground for local options, but finish that degree even if it means having to flip burgers for a few months. Once you have that, if you're really done with Milwaulkee, grab a US map and a dart.

I agree, focus on the degree until its done. Once you have that a number of new doors should open for you.

I'd hang on to the stuff in your garage and count them as assets you can liquidate if the axe falls. Fundeployment and savings will carry you a bit and should keep you out of a "have to sell" situation so you can get full value for your stuff.

And too- keep your resume updated and your ears open. But finish the degree!

DILYSI Dave wrote: IMO, keep your ear to the ground for local options, but finish that degree even if it means having to flip burgers for a few months. Once you have that, if you're really done with Milwaulkee, grab a US map and a dart.

You always have to be ready for the bomb to drop. I keep cash for a minimum 6 months worth of expenses set aside at all times. I know its difficult for a lot of people get that much ahead. If you can, it makes life much easier when the inevitable business slow downs happen.

I'll join the chorus to say finish the degree as quickly as you can. It will open at least a few doors that are not open to you now. Do whatever you need to. At a minimum you will have the self respect that comes from following through.

Beyond that, get your resume up to date. Find a few sympathetic managers or business owners outside your company and practice interviewing. Make they will give you real feedback about what is working and what isn't. You don't need nice, you need real. Interviewing is a skill like any other. Don't wait to polish it up in real interviews.

I know you're in school, but I'd compare September with your planned graduation time and consider professional certifications. Your employer may pay for these, which makes it extra nice, and the cert, unlike your degree, is something you may be able to get right now. To a potential employer, you'll have something that says you have skills today. The way you describe your skills and position, you might be able to take a practice test to verify you're ready, and then take the test with no study at all.

My main thing is that I've already left and returned to college once in my life. To leave again with only 12 credits left would be insanity, IMO. I do enjoy the idea of earning some certs, but my current employer is pretty cheap and will not pay for it, I can guarantee that. However if there was something easily within grasp I'd probably go for it anyway, out of my own pocket.

IMO I would brush up the resume and start spreading it around like wildfire (no pun intended for whats happening in Colorado). It doesn't hurt. As mentioned above start paying off any CC debt and unload some projects and put money away.

I landed a new job in back in December and I still throw my resume out there every now and then just in case something every happens or if a better opportunity arises. I've gotten a few offers from doing that, but nothing that exceeds the salary/benefits I'm getting now. But the next thing that pops up in Florida, I may jsut hop on it to get my ass out of the north!

I am still in the woods searching for my next gig, but I feel like being laid off might have been the best thing to happen to me in a while

I was in your boots a few years ago, but the only notice I got was being called into the conf room one day and being told by HR about my severence package and where to grab my empty box. I was in school part-time and should have jumped in full time to finish up. I later had to drop out and have not gone back. I stil regret the choice I made.

I.T. is very fickle right now. Give yourself every chance possible. I would suggest: 1) update resume 2) take another look at the budget and the toys 3) start networking as much as possible and work on the "elevator speech" 4) focus on school and finishing asap. Degree plus experience greases door hinges.

Take care

Okay, so the plot thickened this morning.

Just got word that Bank of America shut down all three of their job sites that used our equipment. They do not intend to work with us any further. I work at a different major US Bank's (cough) job site, but this is bad news for the company. BoA was one of our biggest customers. Now the company is trying to find homes for a lot of guys...some of whom have been with us 10+ years.

Even if I make the cut at contract renewal I'd still be in a voracious industry fighting over a piece of a rapidly shrinking pie. And we are by no means as strong or as diversified as the big players like Pitney-Bowes.

Ugh. It sucks because there isn't exactly a laundry list of similar jobs out there that would be compatible with a daytime school schedule. Might be time to go back to sandwich delivery...

Any chance to start looking for a lesser job, take out student loans and go full time this fall so you can graduate in December instead of May?

z31maniac wrote: Any chance to start looking for a lesser job, take out student loans and go full time this fall so you can graduate in December instead of May?

Graduating in May is already going full-time. I have been working full-time while going to school full-time for the past two years. THIS is why I am so miserable about giving up HPDEs since I have been miserable and have done nothing fun at all in what feels like a lifetime...

Is your current employer paying for your tuition?

If they are, just stay until the bitter end, take unemployment, and finish your degree.

If they are not paying your tuition, you should be looking real hard at other opportunities. Also, start eyeing places where you could transfer credits and have more potential networking opportunities.

Also, does the GF want to move?

other than education, how much debt are you in

PHeller wrote: Is your current employer paying for your tuition? If they are, just stay until the bitter end, take unemployment, and finish your degree. If they are not paying your tuition, you should be looking real hard at other opportunities. Also, start eyeing places where you could transfer credits and have more potential networking opportunities. Also, does the GF want to move?

Current employer is not paying tuition (at least directly, they aren't). I have good 'ol student loans like most people, though I also have a sizeable investment portfolio that exceeds my loan debt I could fall back on if necessary.

Believe me, I am looking at other opportunities, there are just not many of those for a senior who needs a few specific classes to graduate...and the fact that I am so close means that if I were to transfer, I would likely get knocked back down to junior status. Do not want. Especially since my degree will be of questionable use in the first place outside of just having it (B.A. in Journalism, focus on Advertising & PR with a Business minor). I'd love to work in PR or maybe doing account work for an agency somewhere, but who knows how likely that is...

GF wants to move too but she has a relatively specialized job in a highly competitive field so she cannot just pack her bags and leave.

madmallard wrote: other than education, how much debt are you in

Zero.

So, your GF is employed but in a specialist field. How much does she earn in comparison to you and how serious are you (living together?)?

I’d be tempted to stay where you are to finish your degree, no matter what happens job wise. Then if you survive where you are fine, if they offer you something out of area/state in what sounds like a dying company in an shrinking industry you can afford to turn them down and get out while you can. If you have the ability to sit tight for 6-12 months I’d do that.

It sounds like you are somewhat starting from ground zero, but your GF is already on a career path. Work out what the two of you want longer term. Should she start looking for something else outside of Milwaukee? If so then you can concentrate your search on industries in that area. Either that or take the plunge and decide to stay where you are and look there for something else. What is it you don’t like about where you are? Is it just wanderlust, or do you specifically not like the weather, climate, geography, politics, architecture, religious beliefs etc.? Some of those can be cured within the same city, some can be cured by staying in state and some require you to find utopia and move. You need your long range game plan.

It sounds like you’ve in great shape compared to most young people, zero debt except your education which if push came to shove you could pay off with your investments. I know too many people who’ve made really bad choices (like paying $80k for a social science degree at a private uni all on students loans and now earning minimum wage! = zero chance of ever paying off debt). Let’s face it, you could flip burgers or brew coffee and survive while finishing school and not go into debt. It’s sounds like a scary place to be, but looking at where you are from 20 years down the line it looks like a golden opportunity to plan life, not float into it.

SlickDizzy wrote:

z31maniac wrote: Any chance to start looking for a lesser job, take out student loans and go full time this fall so you can graduate in December instead of May?

Graduating in May is already going full-time. I have been working full-time while going to school full-time for the past two years. THIS is why I am so miserable about giving up HPDEs since I have been miserable and have done nothing fun at all in what feels like a lifetime...

Ah, I thought you said in the other thread you were 12 hours away, guess you meant 12 classes?

We both earn about the same amount. She's getting $33k + benefits as an exhibit illustrator & graphic designer at a local museum and I am making about $35k + benefits at my tech support job. We are about as serious as a young couple that has no interest in marriage can be, i.e. living together, shared bills, etc.

Milwaukee is a dead end mostly because of its status as the most segregated city in America (lots of poverty, lots of crime, psycho cops, etc). It is big enough to have 4 universities producing a qualified workforce but small enough to have nowhere for 3/4s of that workforce to go. Unemployment is very high. I have also lived within the same ~100 mile radius my entire life (born in Madison where the industry is summed up as "college"; if you don't work for UW you probably work for a company that does) and feel like it's time to GTFO.

I recently spent some time in Portland, OR for my current employer and LOVED it. I could have my job moved out there if I wanted but their job site is super small and I could see it disappearing at any moment, definitely before the one I'm at right now.

I am definitely sticking around to finish my degree, but I'm consciously very unhappy with my job. However I make enough to put up with it, at least for now on summer break; when school starts up again my stress levels will skyrocket.

The question is should I leave soon because I'm miserable, or should I put up with the misery until I HAVE to leave because of layoffs? I'd kind of feel like a deadbeat leaving just because I hate the job but boy, oh boy do I hate it.